2008 Week 9 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Mojo Rising]

any thoughts on the pats/colts

[rattsass]

My thought is to avoid it. The Patriots have cost me more $$ over the last several year (betting on or against them) than any team in the league. My gus says that the Colts get it together tonight and jack them up good. But I am even for the week right now, barely escaped going down hard. Probably I will just sit this one out. Feeling it for the Colts though if you just want my honest opinion. What spread are you getting now?

[Mojo Rising]

getting it at -7, 44.5

[rattsass]

getting it at -7, 44.5

Wow. Moved quite a bit there since the start of the week. Not quite so enthusiastic about the Colts at -7.

[Mojo Rising]

im going to put a small play on the colts, they should be fired up and hopefully bob is healthy enough to contribute.

[i_am_the_swammi]

That being said, there is no way in hell I am betting on the Raiders or Rams. But I would bet that at least one of those two covers the spread. Two great games to avoid in my opinion.

 

 

rattsass, very niceeeeeee!

 

 

 

I think you read Ratts post incorrectly. He notes that he would bet that at least one of the Raiders/Rams would cover.

 

neither did.

[Steeltown Dre]

Bird Dog - normally I don't waste my time w/ people like this, I just respectfully ask Dorey to keep your mug out of this thread.

 

You registered moments before this season, and you clearly have not spent time reviewing anything from last season before making your inaccurate assumptions.

 

You say "my system is fabricated"?

 

Try going back to last season and you will clearly see that my system plays were posted on Tuesday morning each and every week, starting in Week 4. And I tracked those plays all season long. And their record was what it was: very solid for a consecutive season in a row. I'm sorry for you that maybe you are jealous I have a computer system and it's doing well. I'm not sure what your motivation is here. Clearly my system has been solid for several seasons.

 

Of my 7 personal plays the last 2 weeks, I specifically said in my e-mails that 6 of those plays were straight from my system, and those plays went 2-0-1 Week 8 and 2-1 Week 9, for a total of 4-1-1 the last two weeks. So you say the system is fabricated, yet the plays from it that I have released the last 2 weeks have hit 80%.

 

As for this year, you say "The picks do okay"

 

So 23-9-2 for 72%, including 4-1-2 (80%) the last 2 weeks is okay? Let's see how you have done.

 

Opening night, Washington vs. NYG, you say:

 

Just because its opening night and call me crazy but I'm taking WAS ML and Was +3.5 for 2 units.

 

Tally a big 0-2.

 

This week you've got:

 

Here's my picks

Houston +4.5

Green Bay +5.5

St. Louis +3

New England +6

 

Make that 2-4

 

Titans will lose today.

 

Make that 2-5.

 

Judging by your appearance in Week 1 and then in Week 9, hopefully you won't be back around until Week 17. Normally I won't call anyone else out by their record, but I'm obligated to do so here when you call me a liar for my system, which everyone who was here last year knows I'm not lying about anything, and they you tell my that my picks are "okay", yet I'm at 72% after 34 plays and you are 29% after 7 plays. Troll along somewhere else. In this thread, we've got smart guys like Ratt, Mojo, whomper, darin, trots, gopher and many other solid guys who post info and plays on a weekly basis. Unlike other boards, or other threads, we aren't here to "1 up" the other guy, we're here to help one another and share insights and info. Excuse us if we don't take well to guys w/ no track record making up lies and bashing. Do us a favor: go ahead and start your own thread with your own plays next week and leave us to help one another in this thread.

Edited November 3, 2008 by Steeltown Dre

[whomper]

In this thread, we've got smart guys like Ratt, Mojo, whomper, darin, trots, gopher and many other solid guys who post info and plays on a weekly basis.

 

 

I was with you until this Dre'

[SheikYerbuti]

Bird Dog

 

And I think we've found the morning line favorite for NTOTY.

[keggerz]

You registered moments before this season,

[bigjohn] That is because he continually gets banned and re-registers with a new name [/bigjohn]

[Big John]

And I think we've found the morning line favorite for NTOTY.

This is another Only In America alias.

 

And he was doing this last to Steel Dre's threads as a different alias of Disfunction Junction.

[STL Fan]

Anyone playing tonight's game? My "road dog" urges are starting to get the best of me. Talk me down.

[i_am_the_swammi]

Sorry I have been absent, boys....my early season woes left me unmotivated to post my miserable picks (I think I was 6-15 after Week 6 with posted plays...yechh). Should have been trailing Dre and Ratt to get me out of the doldrums earlier in the year.

 

But after a couple solid weeks, and a great day yesterday (went large on my Eagles), the Swammi is feeling MUCH better.

 

Tonight, I am on the Steelers, who will be looking to notch their first win against an NFC East foe this year. After narrow losses to both the Eagles and Giants in phenomenally hard-fought battles, the Steelers look like they could be right at home in the NFC East.

 

Tonight, I see the Steeler defense giving the Redskin offense fits. Portis will have very little room to run, and with Moss at less than 100%, the Steelers should be able to contain the not-ready-for-prime-time Redskins offense.

 

The Skins, after a big set of wins over the Cowboys and Eagles earlier in the year, fell back to earth with losing at home to Saint Louis in Week 6, and narrowly beating poor Cleveland and Detroit teams in Week's 7 & 8. Worse, their offense was unable to muster much of anything against any of these poor defenses., managing just 18 ppg over their last 3 contests. Against a stout Steeler defense with less-than 100% Portis and Moss, I see them coming in well under that recent average.

 

While the Steelers have their own woes on the OL, expect Pittsburgh to come out throwing, utlizing 3 WR sets and a no-huddle offense to keep he Redskins off-balance and to limit their ability to blitz. The pass will set up the run, and Parker/Moore should enjoy some 2nd-half success as the middle of the field opens up with safety's playing deeper than usual.

 

it won't be pretty, but the Steelers should put enough "7's" on the board to win this rather handily.

 

Steelers 27, Redskins 16

[darin3]

I was with you until this Dre'

 

I love the Stillers tonight in an ugly affair. 17-10.

[whomper]

 

I love the Stillers tonight in an ugly affair. 17-10.

 

 

I was waiting for you to see it

[bizkit34]

i hardly ever post here but feel like i should now. Dre you do a great job ! i look forward to your post every week.

although i do wish you would put up your picks earlier so we can all chat about them, but i respect your reasonings for not doing so.

the other guys you mentioned are also very informative. thanks to all of you guys for all the great insite each week.. i will keep reading , you guys keep up the great info.

Bird Dog - normally I don't waste my time w/ people like this, I just respectfully ask Dorey to keep your mug out of this thread.

 

You registered moments before this season, and you clearly have not spent time reviewing anything from last season before making your inaccurate assumptions.

 

You say "my system is fabricated"?

 

Try going back to last season and you will clearly see that my system plays were posted on Tuesday morning each and every week, starting in Week 4. And I tracked those plays all season long. And their record was what it was: very solid for a consecutive season in a row. I'm sorry for you that maybe you are jealous I have a computer system and it's doing well. I'm not sure what your motivation is here. Clearly my system has been solid for several seasons.

 

Of my 7 personal plays the last 2 weeks, I specifically said in my e-mails that 6 of those plays were straight from my system, and those plays went 2-0-1 Week 8 and 2-1 Week 9, for a total of 4-1-1 the last two weeks. So you say the system is fabricated, yet the plays from it that I have released the last 2 weeks have hit 80%.

 

As for this year, you say "The picks do okay"

 

So 23-9-2 for 72%, including 4-1-2 (80%) the last 2 weeks is okay? Let's see how you have done.

 

Opening night, Washington vs. NYG, you say:

 

 

 

Tally a big 0-2.

 

This week you've got:

 

 

 

Make that 2-4

 

 

 

Make that 2-5.

 

Judging by your appearance in Week 1 and then in Week 9, hopefully you won't be back around until Week 17. Normally I won't call anyone else out by their record, but I'm obligated to do so here when you call me a liar for my system, which everyone who was here last year knows I'm not lying about anything, and they you tell my that my picks are "okay", yet I'm at 72% after 34 plays and you are 29% after 7 plays. Troll along somewhere else. In this thread, we've got smart guys like Ratt, Mojo, whomper, darin, trots, gopher and many other solid guys who post info and plays on a weekly basis. Unlike other boards, or other threads, we aren't here to "1 up" the other guy, we're here to help one another and share insights and info. Excuse us if we don't take well to guys w/ no track record making up lies and bashing. Do us a favor: go ahead and start your own thread with your own plays next week and leave us to help one another in this thread.

[STL Fan]

i hardly ever post here but feel like i should now. Dre you do a great job ! i look forward to your post every week.

although i do wish you would put up your picks earlier so we can all chat about them, but i respect your reasonings for not doing so.

the other guys you mentioned are also very informative. thanks to all of you guys for all the great insite each week.. i will keep reading , you guys keep up the great info.

 

I post only occasionally here, but love the thread and appreciate the efforts as well. Screw the haters!

 

BTW - congrats on the WS Title Swammi, Cards in '09!

[wildcat2334]

traveling on Sunday - no time to play- did have hugh day Sat - whomper can verify, but for tonight...........

 

 

Wash -2.5

over 37

 

Wash gets it done at home- Pitt is a little overrated and overvalued IMO - and I will disagree with da Swammi- last week wasn't so much a hard fought battle - more like Pitt should have been blown out - and was in the game with smoke and mirrors

 

Wash 24

Pitt 17

 

or somethin like dat

 

good luck!!

[lazylow]

just wanted to say thanks for the interesting analysis

[Mojo Rising]

book sent me 38, so I took the chance and placed on the under.

 

also small play on the steelers +2.5

 

good luck fellas

[Steeltown Dre]

Sorry posting this late - something came up and I couldn't get back on here until now:

 

System has Was and also leans to the Over. But I'm not very confident so I just am letting the system speak for itself and not putting a personal play on the game tonight. Good luck w/ whatever you guys decide.

 

And, big thanks to those who poked their heads in here to say hi.

 

MNF:

 

This is "information only". This is NOT an official play counting towards my 23-9-2 record. If you were planning on taking any side or total, please do not let any of this information dissuade you nor persuade you.

 

I just want to share what my system is leaning towards tonight and trends I found as I researched the game.

 

System:

 

Side: Redskins are a system play, winning the game by 5*

Total: At 37 there is no totals play from the system. My top system was leaning towards the Over and was very close to a play, yet was a fraction off from being recognized as a play, but only if you get the Over 36.5 which was available earlier today. Remember, 37 is a very key number in totals, as I have said before. If you are playing the Under you must have 37 or 37.5 and if you are playing the Over, you must have 37 or 36.5. Also, due to Moss being injured, who really does stretch the field and is the primary downfield threat for Campbell, you really would want to verify his status prior to pulling the trigger on an over.

 

* this does not factor in the questionable Redskins players into the line should they be inactive

 

What makes this a "no-play" for me? Injuries on both sides of the ball, including the Steelers secondary (Tyrone Carter is not good) and their tackle Marvel Smith is out. For the Skins, many questions: will Moss go, will Samuels go, and what about the others that were listed as questionable? We may not know their status until much closer to gametime, which is going to be well after I need to send this out. Also, based on my experience, more "unexpected" results occur during MNF than for a standard 1pm or 4pm games. It is just a bit harder to get a "locked-in read" from my computer for a juiced up game like MNF.

 

In addition, the mentality of the two teams is a key contributor to why I would avoid playing the game: The Redskins are right now sitting at 6-2 after and about to head into their bye week, having played all 3 road division games (going 2-1) and beating high powered offenses of NO and Ari. It is an opportunity for them to already be looking ahead to the bye and become complacent with their great start. I haven't seen that killer instinct from this team in years and am not sure it they can get up for it tonight. They are 0-3 SU and ATS in similar situations dating back to 1994, including 0-2 since 2003: Heading into a bye week the following week w/ rival Dallas up next after the bye.

 

On the other hand, the Steelers are also beat up and I have warned for several weeks that they are not as strong as their record appears. They have weaknesses that teams can take advantage of. O-Line and secondary. But the Skins don't throw the ball downfield enough (bottom 1/3 of 40+ yard passes and bottom 1/2 of 20+ yard passes, and what of the status of Moss?) and they don't rush the passer enough (29th in sacks) to really take advantage of those two glaring weaknesses. How much they change their gameplan to attack their opponent's weaknesses remains to be seen.

 

The Steelers are in their lone road game in a span of over a month, having played the Giants at home, and after this game they have home games against the Colts, the Chargers and then the Bengals. How will they come off the tough, hard-hitting home loss to the defending Super Bowl champs and then play on the road in a non-conference game?

 

All things considered, I was not "sold" on the Redskins system play through the course of my research and analysis, and therefore cannot recommend them to you as a top play. Especially on MNF, when using a system play, it has been my experience that I have to be very convinced in a side and I just could never quite get there. I am not saying the Redskins are not the proper side, the outcome remains to be seen, I am just passing on the game and searching for better value next week.

 

Here are some trends I researched, many are quite interesting.

 

For the Redskins:

 

* In 2008, the NFC East is 10-1 SU in non-divisional games as a home favorite, and when the spread is 7 or fewer points, they are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS.

* In 2008, the AFC North is 3-7 SU in non-divisional games as the road underdogs, and are 2-3 SU and ATS when the line is less than 7.

* Since 2006, the AFC North is 2-5 ATS on non-divisional MNF games.

* Since 2006 and after week 5 of the season, the Steelers are 3-8 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.

* Using those same parameters, the Redskins are 7-3-1 ATS, though only 1 win was as a favorite.

* The Steelers are 2-5 ATS in MNF games since 2005.

* The Redskins are 2-1 ATS in MNF but 0-1 as favorites since 2005.

 

* Since 2005, the teams who played the defending Super Bowl champs the prior week and then had to play in a primetime game the following week went 2-5 ATS. Lesson here is many teams expend so much effort and energy in the big game vs. the defending champs that they can't get back up for a primetime game the following week. Looking only at MNF games, these teams went 1-2 ATS, the only cover was a week 3 game (still early in the season when teams typically are not as banged up or tired).

* In 2008, teams who faced the Giants (defending SB champ) the week before are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS

* Since 2006, teams who faced the defending Super Bowl champs the week before and are now playing with a line within 3 points of a pick'em, either favorite or underdog, have gone 2-8 ATS and 2-8 SU. They have lost by an average of 10 points, and when they are underdogs, they have gone 0-4 SU and ATS.

 

For the Steelers:

 

* Pittsburgh is 6-1-1 ATS the week after losing at home since 2000, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog

* The Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS as underdogs for the 2nd game in a row since 2000, though the last time this occurred was in 2004.

* Since 1993, non-conference MNF games where the underdog is getting 3 or fewer points have gone 8-0 SU and ATS, on average winning by 14 points. Though it has only happened once since 2005, with GB beating Den SU in 2007 as a 3 point road underdog.

* The Steelers were 11-5 ATS in non-conference games since 2004 prior to this season. However, this season they are 0-2 SU and ATS, having lost to both NFC East teams (Phi and NYG) by 9 and 7 points respectively and both games fell 7+ points under the total.

[darin3]

Stillers are up to +3 on Bodog. I'd play them SU if I could but I'll stick with the points here. Was +2.5 earlier in the day. Both teams have great defenses, but I think that - with FWP back on the field - that the Stillers have a slightly better offense.... even with Portis running well and Campbell looking great under Zorn's tutelage. It's gonna be a super close affair. I like the three points going to Pittsburgh. I think they'll keep it close and have a shot to win in the 4th.

[rattsass]

I couldn't resist when it hit 2.5 earlier today. Let's see if I can squeeze out a winning week on a team that is 3-1 on the road this year.

[whomper]

Im back I took Wash -1 for the first half

[rattsass]

fabricated lies

as opposed to the ever popular non-fabricated lies?