Steeltown Dre Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are. 23-9-2 so far, 2-1 last weekend. This week we have several very long lines and a few close ones. Will be a difficult week but let's see if we can produce another solid week. Good luck this week guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 (edited) Here are my early thoughts: Thursday night, Cleveland, with Brady Quinn, is giving 3 points to the Broncos. Now, the Broncos will be running Ryan Torain and perhaps Selvin Young, but they're still a better team than the Brownies. I like Denver +3. NOS/ATL is a pick 'em right now. Atlanta's coming back from a long road trip to Oakland and the Saints have had a week to rest after going to England. Not sure how much that really matters but the Saints are well-rested and could have Reggie Bush back. The Falcons' story is a nice one, but I like the Saints in this one, Reggie Bush or no Reggie Bush. I'm a little - OK a lot - hesitant on this one, but something tells me that the Bears can give the Titans a run for their money, especially at home. Yes, I know Rex Grossman will be the Bear starter. But the Bears are 4-2 against the number at home in their last 6 games (and 5-1 SU). This is a pretty decent Bear team that's GETTING 3 points at home. Something tells me they cover, despite TEN's great ATS numbers over the span of the season. Another gut call here, but I like the Lions to cover the TD spread at home against the Jags. The Jags will be bent after losing to the Bungles, but the Lions could add a few garbage time scores to cover the number. At first, my thought was that the Vikes should cover the 2 points they're giving up against the Pack at home. But then I looked at a few trends and realized why the Vikes were giving 2 instead of the "customary" 3-point number. I think the Pack has a chance to win this outright. That's it for now. Edited November 4, 2008 by darin3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 hey dre got your email about you charging from here on out for your picks......... ............but of course not to us fellow huddler friends, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted November 4, 2008 Author Share Posted November 4, 2008 I'll still be on here each and every week, I'm not doing anything different as far as this thread goes. When I "made it" big and was discussed by Steve Czaban on Fox Sports Radio in his national radio show, and then by Dan Patrick on his show, I had a ton of people you wouldn't believe who were giving me a hard time and what not. Even though I was doing everything for free, just trying to help people out and give out winning plays. I'm not trying to punish those who didn't complain, which is why I continued for weeks by giving out free plays. I figure giving them out for free for 9 weeks should give people a leg up on the football season and hopefully they will keep things going. It's been difficult to come to this decision because I don't want to be your typical tout who you pay money to and regret it each and every week. I know I'll have a bad week here and there, that's 100% typical in this business. But I actually do my homework and don't play games each and every day and spend a ton of time researching, and have my computer system, so I think I have a leg up on the other guys who really are just good marketers. I'm not extremely internet savvy, the website has no pictures and is pretty drab, and I just signed up for a paypal account the other day. So I'm far from some kind of marketing genius. I just feel I've "given" hours and hours of time for these 9 weeks, and it would be nice to get a little something the rest of the year that I can feel like I'm "doing this" for something rather than helping jerks who take my plays for free and still complain. I love this site and the guys on it, everyone tries to help one another in this thread, which is why I always will make time to post insights and plays here. Ratt and I have gone on and on about crappy touts in the past. But maybe this is my own rationalization, but I don't feel like I've "joined the dark side". I think what I will be providing will be so much more than just "plays", and the few e-mails I have received from people who were appreciative of the methods and information I pass along and who genuinely learned some things from my analysis is what really makes me feel good. To have people who are able to, at the end of this year or whenever, handicap smarter and practice better money management and keep more of their own money and not give it to the books, that really is what this is all about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Dre, I don't blame you a bit. You have a real talent, and deserve to be rewarded for it. And as long as your system keeps spitting out winners like it has over the last several years you immediately become one of the best in the business. I wish you much success. Guys, I mentioned this in the column, but I already have one play for the week. Miami -9. As I noted, the Seahawks haven't even come close to winning a game outside of their division. They are traditionally horrible on the road. And they will make the cross country flight from Seattle to Miami to play an 11:00 et game. Yes, 9 is a big number. But the Seahawks are going to have to give me a reason to stop betting against them in this spot. I am trying to restrain myself, but thinking large on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Dre, I don't blame you a bit. You have a real talent, and deserve to be rewarded for it. And as long as your system keeps spitting out winners like it has over the last several years you immediately become one of the best in the business. I wish you much success. Guys, I mentioned this in the column, but I already have one play for the week. Miami -9. As I noted, the Seahawks haven't even come close to winning a game outside of their division. They are traditionally horrible on the road. And they will make the cross country flight from Seattle to Miami to play an 11:00 et game. Yes, 9 is a big number. But the Seahawks are going to have to give me a reason to stop betting against them in this spot. I am trying to restrain myself, but thinking large on this one. I considered commenting on this one, but that 9 number is just a little too rich for my blood. Maybe bushwacked and godtomsatan will put enough money on the game to move the number a bit so I feel a lil more comfy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted November 5, 2008 Share Posted November 5, 2008 dre....how much for your 5 best picks this week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted November 5, 2008 Share Posted November 5, 2008 I considered commenting on this one, but that 9 number is just a little too rich for my blood. Maybe bushwacked and godtomsatan will put enough money on the game to move the number a bit so I feel a lil more comfy. I'm thinking probably not. That is why I posted this early, even though the number is big I would think there a better chance of it going up by gametime than down. I might lock in today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted November 5, 2008 Author Share Posted November 5, 2008 dre....how much for your 5 best picks this week? dmarc - not really doing things like that. This season I've posted my plays here on Sundays and will most likely continue to do that. But I can't guarantee they will be posted in order to give you the best shot at a good line, if you catch my drift. Part of my reluctance to post my system plays this season, while sending out this end of week newsletter, is this: Say I have a play from my system on Chi+4 I post it on Wednesday (and I won't say I move lines myself) but by the time I issue the newletter on Friday or Saturday, so many people have jumped on Chi (perhaps in part because I liked them, just for argument's sake) and now on Friday/Saturday it's Chi +2. In the back of my mind, I wonder, if I hadn't posted the system play on Wednesday, could I have gotten Chi for +4, +3.5 or +3 on Friday or Saturday? So really, it is almost "counter productive" to tell people "I love Chi +4" early in the week if I am going to release it at the end of the week and will have to then play it at whatever the line is at the end of the week. You see where I'm going? But the fact is that many guys just like action and want to see what my computer system can do, so they want to see all the plays to start thinking themselves which plays they may want to take and which they don't want to take. And to get better lines. Due to requests, I also gave a 20% discount for a rest of season pass so you only pay once and it's $12/week. I'm really not here to make serious cash here, if I overprice the average guy, I am missing the target crowd. The guys who are dropping $5K per game, and can afford to lose it, that's not who I really am trying to help, though helping them would be nice. I really want to help the regular guys out, I hate to see people losing their hard earned money. Its just that instead of being a hour a day thing, this has turned into a much longer, daily time investment. More than you probably care to know. Anyhow, I will still be starting this thread and posting in it weekly, and let's talk about the plays this week and not so much what I'm doing. I know this week it may be a slight distraction but hopefully going forward we can continue posting winning plays and analysis here and helping one another out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted November 5, 2008 Share Posted November 5, 2008 Guys, haven't been around this year but have checked in on occasion to see the plays. Strangely, last few weeks been against Dre more than with him, but had my best weeks as the ones he's lost, I've won and my other plays have been doing well. This week I've already put in three - took AZ -9.5 early as I see this going up a bit with MNF Fav play and wanted to lock in single digits. Combination of the way they are playing and the extraordinarily strange start to the Mike Singletary era. - Denver getting 3.5 (bought it up) - three things here - first, the obvious with Quinn - even with Denver's piss poor defense, a guy with one true day of practice as a starter has to stuggle. 2nd - Cleveland's defense is just not performing and against Denver, that isn't good. If Torain has any chance of being good this year, he knows this will be his shot to cement his role and having it against Cleveland is a good thing. 3rd - in theory, this is a must win for both teams althought I beleive Cleveland is done regardless. In must wins I look at QB's and coaches....give me Denver. - Tennessee -2.5 (bought down) - top defense against Rex Grossman...that's all I needed to see Big Eagles fan and bet them a unit every week regardless of anything else (which has my up 9 units over the last 9 years...too bad down about 30 units on everythign else last 9 years) - but how in the world are they favored? I know its at home and a "must win" to an extent, but the best/2nd best team in football is the opponent and we're 5-3 with 3 of the wins being against the dregs of the NFC West.... even if it was a pick'em I'd be ok, but we're giving a FG?!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted November 5, 2008 Share Posted November 5, 2008 Guys, haven't been around this year but have checked in on occasion to see the plays. Strangely, last few weeks been against Dre more than with him, but had my best weeks as the ones he's lost, I've won and my other plays have been doing well. This week I've already put in three - took AZ -9.5 early as I see this going up a bit with MNF Fav play and wanted to lock in single digits. Combination of the way they are playing and the extraordinarily strange start to the Mike Singletary era. - Denver getting 3.5 (bought it up) - three things here - first, the obvious with Quinn - even with Denver's piss poor defense, a guy with one true day of practice as a starter has to stuggle. 2nd - Cleveland's defense is just not performing and against Denver, that isn't good. If Torain has any chance of being good this year, he knows this will be his shot to cement his role and having it against Cleveland is a good thing. 3rd - in theory, this is a must win for both teams althought I beleive Cleveland is done regardless. In must wins I look at QB's and coaches....give me Denver. - Tennessee -2.5 (bought down) - top defense against Rex Grossman...that's all I needed to see Big Eagles fan and bet them a unit every week regardless of anything else (which has my up 9 units over the last 9 years...too bad down about 30 units on everythign else last 9 years) - but how in the world are they favored? I know its at home and a "must win" to an extent, but the best/2nd best team in football is the opponent and we're 5-3 with 3 of the wins being against the dregs of the NFC West.... even if it was a pick'em I'd be ok, but we're giving a FG?!? Like the Denver & Tennessee picks (esp. the buys), though I disagree with the AZ pick.....with SF coming off a bye and the team feeling the public embarrassment of Singletary's mooning incident, they could opt to hand it to Gore 40 times, control the clock, and keep it close. I'd probably lean to SF, though likely stay away. Interesting you brought up the Eagles. I saw that line and immediately thought it was telling me something. Then after thinking bout it, I realized (1) the Eagles are phenomenal in November-December over the last 8 years ( 48-20); (2) the Eagles appear very focused, taking care of business in a look-past game last week vs. Seattle on the road; (3) realized the Giants, in their last four games, lost to CLE, struggled mightily with SF, eeked out a 4th quarter win vs. PIT, and couldn't put away an unfocused Dallas team until late in the game. To the novice bettor, the line screams "take the 8-1 defending champs getting points"....I am hoping the line slips to -2.5 or -2 with late action, and I'll grab the Eagles for a chunk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted November 6, 2008 Author Share Posted November 6, 2008 (edited) - took AZ -9.5 early as I see this going up a bit with MNF Fav play and wanted to lock in single digits. Combination of the way they are playing and the extraordinarily strange start to the Mike Singletary era. - Denver getting 3.5 (bought it up) - three things here - first, the obvious with Quinn - even with Denver's piss poor defense, a guy with one true day of practice as a starter has to stuggle. 2nd - Cleveland's defense is just not performing and against Denver, that isn't good. If Torain has any chance of being good this year, he knows this will be his shot to cement his role and having it against Cleveland is a good thing. 3rd - in theory, this is a must win for both teams althought I beleive Cleveland is done regardless. In must wins I look at QB's and coaches....give me Denver. Interesting angle in that one. Anyone from SF know if the team is going to rally behind the iron fist of Singletary or do we get any sense that players are throwing in the towel? I thought at first the guys really liked playing for him, but their execution vs. Sea was pathetic and now they were dealing w/ the pants down distraction all week. One thing regarding Den/Cle. Don't forget, Den is 4-4 and in first place of their division, yet are 2-6 ATS including 0-6 in their L6. Cleveland is 3-5 and only in 3rd place in their division, yet are 5-3 ATS and are 4-1 ATS in their L5. That does not mean anything in particular for tonight's game, in terms of how these teams matchup and which could cover the spread. But what it does show you is that Denver have been receiving a ton of support based on their early season success and have been quite overvalued. The Browns are in the exact opposite position, and have been quite undervalued and outperforming their ATS numbers. Edited November 6, 2008 by Steeltown Dre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted November 6, 2008 Share Posted November 6, 2008 Interesting angle in that one. Anyone from SF know if the team is going to rally behind the iron fist of Singletary or do we get any sense that players are throwing in the towel? I thought at first the guys really liked playing for him, but their execution vs. Sea was pathetic and now they were dealing w/ the pants down distraction all week. One thing regarding Den/Cle. Don't forget, Den is 4-4 and in first place of their division, yet are 2-6 ATS including 0-6 in their L6. Cleveland is 3-5 and only in 3rd place in their division, yet are 5-3 ATS and are 4-1 ATS in their L5. That does not mean anything in particular for tonight's game, in terms of how these teams matchup and which could cover the spread. But what it does show you is that Denver have been receiving a ton of support based on their early season success and have been quite overvalued. The Browns are in the exact opposite position, and have been quite undervalued and outperforming their ATS numbers. On the AZ-SF game, agree with where you are going - I thought that Singletary would get an underperforming team to perform, but most of what I've seen and read is that while it may have been the right long-term move, think the short-term is going to be a bit ugly especially when they are now going to Hill at QB. Also just think AZ is at least a TD better regardless of anything, so coupling those seeing a blowout here. Den/Cle - yep, the ATS numbers definitely show that Den is way overvalued normally. I just can't look at that game and getting more than a FG not take Denver especially with the switch at QB on a short week with a set of WR that already can't seem to catch. I think it's going to be entertaining as hell to watch (and with Torain being the main guy and some of my playoff hopes in fantasy resting on him catching fire, has that aspect involved as well). I'm liking the QB issue in Chicago as well, because I think Grossman ends up in that game regardless but with an even bigger chip on his shoulder cause it's to the point where they'd rather go with a limping Orton then Grossman. And a guy like Grossman with something to prove is good for 3-4 turnovers easy. Also took KC last night +15.5 for no other reason than no one should be a two TD dog in the NFL unless we're takling 15-0 vs 0-15, and SD is not 15-0.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted November 6, 2008 Share Posted November 6, 2008 Cle / Den under 46 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted November 6, 2008 Share Posted November 6, 2008 Interesting angle in that one. Anyone from SF know if the team is going to rally behind the iron fist of Singletary or do we get any sense that players are throwing in the towel? I thought at first the guys really liked playing for him, but their execution vs. Sea was pathetic and now they were dealing w/ the pants down distraction all week. Dre - From what I've read in various outlets and heard on various radio shows, the veteran Niners are like and the younger guys are more like Singletary has come right out and said that he's "old school", and is going to reign with an iron fist. I'm not sure this is the way to rule the roost mid-season. Especially since Mike Nolan led with a quiet confidence. I think the Niners are going to continue to falter. They already lost to the Cards by 10 at home to start the season. Why wouldn't the Cards win by this amount - or more - at home, on a national stage, with all cylinders firing? It is a rather big number, especially for a team that's traditionally been pretty crappy, but this is their division to lose with the Seahawks' demise and the Niners and Rams sucking wind. I'll come right out and say it... Cards will win by two TDs if not more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted November 6, 2008 Share Posted November 6, 2008 Also took KC last night +15.5 for no other reason than no one should be a two TD dog in the NFL unless we're takling 15-0 vs 0-15, and SD is not 15-0.... yea when i saw that number i thought to myself it was way too high, but then maybe thats what vegas wants people to think.....isnt this the first team to be more than a 2 TD dog this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted November 6, 2008 Share Posted November 6, 2008 As much as I was favoring denver on the rebound, I had to take the browns at home -3 and a bigger play on the over 46. Torain hasnt done anything to tell us that he can handle the running for an entire game which means alot more passing from denver. I think quinn will keep up, he played good in the preseason against 2nd stringers and the broncos defense is pretty much 2nd stringers. good luck guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted November 6, 2008 Share Posted November 6, 2008 (edited) As much as I was favoring denver on the rebound, I had to take the browns at home -3 and a bigger play on the over 46. Torain hasnt done anything to tell us that he can handle the running for an entire game which means alot more passing from denver. I think quinn will keep up, he played good in the preseason against 2nd stringers and the broncos defense is pretty much 2nd stringers. good luck guys. nice call Mojo !!!!!!!!! i tip my hat to you Edited November 7, 2008 by MustOfBeenDrunk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 think it's going to be entertaining as hell to watch ( No way any trends or predictions meant a damn thing with that game last night, but I got this part dead on - heck of a game to watch Anyone have thoughts on Car-Oak - 9.5 last I saw. Carolina does have to go west, but been a good road team, and the situation in Oakland is so absurd at this point it makes San Fran look stable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 I read somthing like this: " Al Davis came to the office Monday with a list of more than a dozen players he would consider cutting. Cornerback DeAngelo Hall was the first to go. More might follow if the Raiders play as flat against the Panthers as they did last week against the Falcons. Of course, some of those overpaid players might see being cut as freedom. Davis talks about commitment to excellence. Raiders players just want to leave." and really makes me want to jump on Carolina in single digits... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 nice call Mojo !!!!!!!!! i tip my hat to you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T_bone65 Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 Look at the username of the person you quoted He must of been when he posted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 Look at the username of the person you quoted He must of been when he posted he was referring to the over play since he had leaned on the under..... .........................t_bone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 Cle / Den under 46 a bigger play on the over 46. nice call Mojo !!!!!!!!! i tip my hat to you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted November 7, 2008 Share Posted November 7, 2008 (edited) As much as I was favoring denver on the rebound, I had to take the browns at home -3 and a bigger play on the over 46. Torain hasnt done anything to tell us that he can handle the running for an entire game which means alot more passing from denver. I think quinn will keep up, he played good in the preseason against 2nd stringers and the broncos defense is pretty much 2nd stringers. good luck guys. nice call Mojo !!!!!!!!! i tip my hat to you So he hit on one of his two calls, and he's getting a hat-tip? E2A: I hadn't seen MOBD had called the under... but still. In other news, I have a feeling a lot of games are going to hit the over number this week. Some pretty meaty matchups with some good offenses firing on all cylinders. I think this DEN/CLE is just the tip of the iceberg. Should be an exciting week for fantasy as a result, too! Edited November 7, 2008 by darin3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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