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2008 Week 10 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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How does that favor the OVER? Unless you mean Chris Hope repeatedly taking pic-6's to the house. . .

I see how he is thinking here. Either Grossman throws some pick six's, or/in addition he chucks a couple of long ones after his pick six's put the Bears behind in the game. Not a bad proposition I would say.

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First of all, Dre, let me just say this... I don't blame you at all for what you have decided to do. Nobody in their right mind would put in the time and show the dedication that you have, without thinking twice about giving away your insight/information, week in and week out, for free. That said, I hope you can continue to "stop in" on a weekly basis, so that we can share our thoughts on games/lines as a group, as we have for a while now. Personally, at this point in my gambling "career", I don't spend enough to justify the weekly fee you are asking for... This is more of a casual "hobby" for me than anything else. If, at some point in the future, I decide to get more serious about this hobby, I would definitely consider using your information. From what I've seen over the past couple of years, nobody puts more work into this than you do, and your results show that it has been worth the effort. Good luck to you going forward.

 

Lots of games I like this week, but the three that stand out are:

 

CAR

MIA

ARI - This is my top pick of the week... just don't see the Niners staying within single digits of this offense on the road.

 

My plays this week (and there are a lot of them):

 

Straight Wagers

 

Panthers(Carolina) -9.5

 

Dolphins(Miami) -7.5

 

Cardinals(Arizona) -9.5

 

Parlays

 

Parlay (4 Teams)

Pays 4+ to 1

Cardinals(Arizona) -9.5

Chargers(SanDiego) -925

Jets(NewYork) -370

Dolphins(Miami) -7.5

 

Parlay (2 Teams)

Pays 13 to 5

Cardinals(Arizona) -9.5

Falcons(Atlanta) 0

 

Teasers

 

7 Point Teaser (6 Teams)

Pays 5 to 1

Cardinals(Arizona) -2.5

Chiefs(KansasCity) +21.5

Colts(Indianapolis) +10.5

Eagles(Philadelphia) +4

Panthers(Carolina) -2.5

OAK/CAR Under 44.5

 

6 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Pays 9 to 5

Saints(NewOrleans) +7.5

Dolphins(Miami) -1.5

Titans(Tennessee) +3 (+105)

 

6 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Pays 9 to 5

Vikings(Minnesota) +3.5 (-115)

Jets(NewYork) -3.5

Over 45

 

6.5 Point Teaser (4 Teams)

Pays 2.5 to 1

Panthers(Carolina) -2.5

NOS/ATL Over 43.5

Dolphins(Miami) -2.5

Titans(Tennessee) +3.5

 

7 Point Teaser (5 Teams)

Pays 3.5 to 1

Cardinals(Arizona) -2.5

Patriots(NewEngland) +3

Broncos(Denver) +10

Giants(NewYork) +10

Falcons(Atlanta) +7

 

6 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Pays 9 to 5

Packers(GreenBay) +8.5

Jets(NewYork) -2

Ravens(Baltimore) +7.5

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The Bears just squeaked by the Lions, Rex Grossman is back, and TENN is 7-1 ATS, and the one they missed was by half a point. Oh, and they're maybe the best team in football.

 

I just loaded up on TENN at -2.5.

 

 

:wacko:

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I see how he is thinking here. Either Grossman throws some pick six's, or/in addition he chucks a couple of long ones after his pick six's put the Bears behind in the game. Not a bad proposition I would say.

 

 

dat was the idea......... ended up being a blocked 4th qtr FG away from going over..........

 

Sexy Rexy tried to throw a pick six there late to Finnegan - oh well -

 

lets hope for a rebound in the PM

 

Pitt -3 - hard

Oak +10

 

later

PHI -3

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Having a decent week so far... Need tonight's game to stay between NYG +10 and PHI +4 to turn a decent week into a very good one. If only one or the other happens, I'll still be OK, as long as the Cardinals cover 2.5 tomorrow. If they cover the full 9.5, I'll be sitting even better.

 

I also added one more 7-pt teaser....

 

ARI - 2.5

ARI/SF UNDER 54

NYG/PHI OVER 36

 

Out of all of my parlays/teasers, etc., the only teams that really hurt me today were the Saints not staying within 7.5 of Atlanta, and Miami not covering the 7.5 (2.5 in one of my teasers). But, since I had more plays on Atlanta winning than NOS covering, I'm doing OK.

 

I just really don't see how the Niners are going to stay close to Arizona tomorrow. The only thing I'm hesitant about is the fact that it's a divisional game and they usually play each other tough. Other than that, I see several reasons why I think this will be a double-digit win for AZ. I think this Cardinals team is getting better and better every week. Their offense is quickly becoming one of the premiere offenses in the league. They can score on anybody. Their defense is improved as well.

 

The Niners, on the other hand, have not appeared to have rallied around their new head coach, Mike "The Flash" Singletary. It seems more likely that things will get worse for SF, before they have a chance of getting better. I would not be a bit surprised if they end up with one of the worst 5 records in the league when this is all said and done. They do not have the personnel on offense to run the Martz offense effectively (they've already basically abandoned that game plan by replacing JTO with Hill, who is more of the protect-the-ball, don't-take-chances kind of QB), and their defense has shown absolutely ZERO ability to harass opposing QB's this year. I think tomorrow night is going to be a rough one for the Niners and their fans. 34-13 Cardinals

 

As for tonight's game, I think Philly needs it more, and will pull off a close win at home. 23-20 Eagles

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Up till last night's game, had a great week going with 5-0 on my plays and even the other two I mentioned here covering. Unfortunately, the Eagles couldn't get that last score/2 ptr I needed.

 

Carolina cover was big - lot of gamblers were watching that closely.

 

Go Cardinals!!

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So when your life gets turned into a "two for the money" 'esque movie, who is going to play who here at the huddle?

 

I'd like Max Martini to play me...should be able to get him on the cheap since it would only be a bit part cameo showing how inspiration for the film came about.

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Thank you for the kind words Gopher.

 

I have no dog in the fight tonight, but in my research, I did find some quite interesting trends for each team.

 

MNF Trends:

 

For SF:

 

* Since 2006, teams who played and beat the St. Louis Rams by 8 or more points the prior week and are favored the following week are a dreadful 0-10 ATS, on average failing to cover by 13 points.

 

Subsets:

o Even more surprising: If they are favored by single digits, they are 0-6 SU, losing SU on lines of -8 (twice) -6.5, -4.5 and -3 (twice).

o If they are favorites of 10 or more, they are 4-0 SU but 0-4 ATS, winning by an average of 4 on an average -12 point line.

 

* Teams playing off a bye on MNF are 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS since 2004, including 4-1 SU as a dog. However, the underdog covers were of +3 (3 times) and +8. The underdog loss was +9.5. (It was Baltimore @ Pittsburgh last year when they turned the ball over and over in the 1st half and the weather was bad, and it was 35-7 at the half)

 

 

For Ari:

 

* In the last 10 years, teams w/ a losing record who are off a bye and lost by 21+ prior to the bye who are underdogs in their next game are 3-10 ATS.

* If that team is a road dog, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by an average of 22 points and failing to cover by an average of 2 TDs.

 

* Teams who won by 21+ and are at home prior to week 14 of the season and are favored over a team who just lost are 15-8 ATS since 2004.

* If they are favored by 8.5+ points, they are 12-5 ATS

* If the game is a divisional game, 12-2 ATS, covering the average spread by 8 points.

* If the team is favored by more than 5 points, but less than 10, they are 10-0 ATS, covering by 10 and winning by an average of 18.

 

As you can see, good stuff for both sides as far as trends are concerned. Good luck in whatever you guys decide to play tonight. Solid week over here, I've already packed up and moved on to week 11. From what I can tell some others had pretty solid results as well. A few guys on Ari tonight, good luck fellas!

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I know the Cardinals are a heavy favorite, but it just escapes me how they don't cover this game. They have beaten better teams by bigger margins. They are poised for the playoffs. This is their big coming out party in front of a national audience. I fail to see how the 49ers defense is capable of raining on their parade. Opposing defenses do not do well on Cards turf.

 

The only caveat I have is this. It is possible we could see a "Singletary bounce." We have seen this before with changing head coaches mid-stream. Maybe he can fire up this bunch of losers and squeeze a respectable loss out of this one. And we have the wild card of a new starter at QB for the 49ers. It has to make 'zona fans just a little bit nervous that Hill has won his only 2 starts. And has probably worked quite a bit with Morgan and Jason Hill, who figure to be needed to have a chance tonight. This game isn't just a cakewalk. There are some unkwnown's here.

 

But this isn't just any game for the Cardinals. I find it hard to believe they will do anything less than come out swinging, and keep swinging until the double zero's flash in the 4th quarter.

 

The worst part about betting the Cards tonight, and betting the over for that matter is that is the public betting side of choice. Everybody is on the Cardinals. It is the public play. From what I understand Vegas took a beating yesterday on public plays. Are you just riding the trend going with it tonight, or are you tempting fate against Vegas, which was not built on being wrong.

 

Very interesting game from a gaming standpoint.

 

My gut feeling. 49ers may be game for a quarter or so. But they just don't have the ponies to stop this Express. Cardinals cover. I pull my ass out of the fire from yesterdays Miami debacle.

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Ive been looking at the total like crazy.

 

Like you said rattsass, joe couch/blog is banking on the cards coming out firing on primetime (with a possible MVP QB) and the 9ers hanging in there for a couple of scores.

 

The 9ers only chance is to keep the cardinals offense off the field by controlling the clock with gore as much as possible and having hill throw very high percentage short passes. Something also to keep in mind, the 9ers turned it over 5 times last time these two met and the cards won by 10 (23-13).

 

The media has been all up on the cards + over as well. Every commercial talks about the "high flying Cardinal's offense" which is something that scares me. I think Vegas gets it right and the game goes under.

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Ive been looking at the total like crazy.

 

Like you said rattsass, joe couch/blog is banking on the cards coming out firing on primetime (with a possible MVP QB) and the 9ers hanging in there for a couple of scores.

 

The 9ers only chance is to keep the cardinals offense off the field by controlling the clock with gore as much as possible and having hill throw very high percentage short passes. Something also to keep in mind, the 9ers turned it over 5 times last time these two met and the cards won by 10 (23-13).

 

The media has been all up on the cards + over as well. Every commercial talks about the "high flying Cardinal's offense" which is something that scares me. I think Vegas gets it right and the game goes under.

If it goes SF and under Vegas will clean up. I just can't convince my brain to cook up a scenario in which that happens.

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