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fantasy football and the luck factor


montster
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who here has finished a season as the points leader AND points-against leader? how did you do?

 

in my main money league, i am the points leader by a wide margin. i am also the points-against leader by a wide margin. after this week, i will be 5-5. i have never had a more frustrating season in fantasy football. three of my losses are against teams that are a combined 10-20. all three were high scorer for that week, and all had their best weeks of the season against me that week. week 4: i lose when brett favre throws six TDs and larry johnson runs for 200 yds and 2 TDs and is never heard from again. this week: i lose when dustin freakin' keller goes for 107 yards and a score, and lance moore catches a meaningless hail mary on the last play of the game that ends up being the difference in my matchup.

 

i know i'm probably being a baby about this, but i'm pulling my hair out. you do what you can and draft a good team, which i did, only to see random luck ruin everything. with three games left, there's a decent chance i make the playoffs, but also a decent chance i remain points leader and not make the playoffs. i think that would kill me.

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who here has finished a season as the points leader AND points-against leader? how did you do?

 

in my main money league, i am the points leader by a wide margin. i am also the points-against leader by a wide margin. after this week, i will be 5-5. i have never had a more frustrating season in fantasy football. three of my losses are against teams that are a combined 10-20. all three were high scorer for that week, and all had their best weeks of the season against me that week. week 4: i lose when brett favre throws six TDs and larry johnson runs for 200 yds and 2 TDs and is never heard from again. this week: i lose when dustin freakin' keller goes for 107 yards and a score, and lance moore catches a meaningless hail mary on the last play of the game that ends up being the difference in my matchup.

 

i know i'm probably being a baby about this, but i'm pulling my hair out. you do what you can and draft a good team, which i did, only to see random luck ruin everything. with three games left, there's a decent chance i make the playoffs, but also a decent chance i remain points leader and not make the playoffs. i think that would kill me.

Now go kick ur dog punch the mailman and yell at ur kids that will make u feel better. Then come back down to earth and realize its a fantasy football world ur livin in and get a grip! :wacko:

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I feel your pain. Last year I ended regular season 2nd in points scored(by 3.6) and was at times the #1 scorer in my first year local keeper league. I had the most points scored against me by a mile and squeeked into the playoffs with a 7-6 record(3 weeks of playoffs- top teams have bye). I end up winning my first playoff matchup easily, then watch the #1 seed go down in the second round. I ended up winning the league so there was some justice. By the way, I'm having better luck in that league this year during the reg. season, althoug I'm once again the leader in points against. I had to hang on for dear life and am very thankful that I had Patrick Willis going on MNF. In our matchup this week, we were the highest 2 scorers, but I pulled it out and am now 8-2. Hopefully this doesn't mean I get whacked in the playoffs. :wacko:

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I'm leading the league in pts and I'm 5-5. A couple of years ago I led the league in pts and missed the playoffs. It sucks but that's just the way FF is. I've been on the lucky side of things my fair share as well. You take the good with the bad.

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I played the 2-7 team in my local this weekend. In Week 2 I also played him:

Week 2 he scores 119.36 - 96.61 for me

Week 10 he scores 128.96 - 126.84 for me

For a combined 248.32 points or 30% of his entire season's scoring.

He has not scored in triple digits against any other team this Season.

He's scored 55.44, 70.07 and 86.71 the last 3 Weeks.

I hate him.

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I am 2nd in scoring (10 team league) and I am in 4th, but the leading scorer is in 8th!!! out of the playoffs right now... Her scores are just absolutely BRUTAL! of course the 7th highest scoring team is in 1st and most likely looking at the BYE into the money.

 

My HS/College Buddy league we still have Head to Head as our 1st tie breaker and then go to total points if it is a 3 way tie or split HtoH games and I hate the rule but cannot ever get anyone to change in that league... good thing we only play for giving out as much crap as possible.

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2nd in points scored (just 30ish from being 1st) and 2nd in points against....and to make matters worse it is a 32 team and I am 7-5 with this lineup

Normal Starting Lineup

NO TMQB

Bush

Wayne

Colston

Reggie Brown

LJ Smith(starting Keller now)

Buff TMPK

Jared Allen

Will Smith

Nick Eason(was Charles Grant til he went on IR)

DeMeco Ryans

London Fletcher

Michael Boley

Omar Gaither (have Tulloch as depth)

Rhonde Barber

Nate Clements

Nedu Ndukwe

Chavous

 

:wacko:

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Only one stat really matters in FF and it's the one you can't do anything about - points against. You can draft great, you can be a waiver wire maven, you can trade until you're blue in the face but if your opponents keep on going off, you're SOL.

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This is why we do a 6-team playoff in a 12-team league: three division winners, next highest points wildcard, next best record wildcard, and next best all-play record (thanks MFL!) wildcard. We don't get the guaranteed six best teams, every year, but any truly strong team will be in the mix in the postseason.

 

Peace

policy

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Only one stat really matters in FF and it's the one you can't do anything about - points against. You can draft great, you can be a waiver wire maven, you can trade until you're blue in the face but if your opponents keep on going off, you're SOL.

Exactly, while we may have a Def/ST we cannot play defense in this Game and some days it will drive you nuts. But then if there was no luck involved the easy money guys wouldn't ever play with us... and the payouts would be smaller!

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I played the 2-7 team in my local this weekend. In Week 2 I also played him:

Week 2 he scores 119.36 - 96.61 for me

Week 10 he scores 128.96 - 126.84 for me

For a combined 248.32 points or 30% of his entire season's scoring.

He has not scored in triple digits against any other team this Season.

He's scored 55.44, 70.07 and 86.71 the last 3 Weeks.

I hate him.

 

And yet those two victories for him against you, probably made his season alittle bit more bearable lol.

Edited by tazinib1
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I'm REALLY warming up to total pts leagues.

I think I've found a solution in one of my leagues.

 

See, the problem with a total pts league is that it takes away from the fun of tracking not only your team but the team you're going against. Monday night games take on a whole new meaning.

 

So, how to reconcile that with the fairness of not allowing someone who puts up a ton of points but seems to always be playing the week's top scorer?

 

In the league I started this year, the 3 top play-off spots are taken by the teams with the best w/l record and the 4th spot is taken by the team who has the highest total points among the remaining teams. Further, the 1st seed gets to choose among the other 3 teams whom he plays in the 1st round.

 

As it is playing out right now, it wouldn't have any effect. I'm in 1st in terms of w/l but also have the most points. The guy with the next highest is tied for 4th with the guy who's got the 3rd most. None the less, there's a few more weeks. Also, there's a few guys who have put up pretty decent point totals but have sort of crappy records. If they keep putting up good numbers, they'll have a chance (especially if the two guys ranked 2 and 3 in points over take the guys ahead of them). If it was strictly by record, they might already be eliminated.

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who here has finished a season as the points leader AND points-against leader? how did you do?

 

in my main money league, i am the points leader by a wide margin. i am also the points-against leader by a wide margin. after this week, i will be 5-5. i have never had a more frustrating season in fantasy football. three of my losses are against teams that are a combined 10-20. all three were high scorer for that week, and all had their best weeks of the season against me that week. week 4: i lose when brett favre throws six TDs and larry johnson runs for 200 yds and 2 TDs and is never heard from again. this week: i lose when dustin freakin' keller goes for 107 yards and a score, and lance moore catches a meaningless hail mary on the last play of the game that ends up being the difference in my matchup.

 

i know i'm probably being a baby about this, but i'm pulling my hair out. you do what you can and draft a good team, which i did, only to see random luck ruin everything. with three games left, there's a decent chance i make the playoffs, but also a decent chance i remain points leader and not make the playoffs. i think that would kill me.

 

In my two 10-team locals, the #4 seed is the total points leader of the remaining teams.

 

1st Seed = Division winner with best record (total points tie-breaker)

2nd Seed = Other Division Winner

3rd Seed = Best record of remaining teams (total points tie-breaker)

4th Seed = Most points of remaining teams

 

This format protects teams who put up hugh points but are hit with bad luck. We've used if for several years now, and I love it.

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I think I've found a solution in one of my leagues.

 

See, the problem with a total pts league is that it takes away from the fun of tracking not only your team but the team you're going against. Monday night games take on a whole new meaning.

 

So, how to reconcile that with the fairness of not allowing someone who puts up a ton of points but seems to always be playing the week's top scorer?

 

In the league I started this year, the 3 top play-off spots are taken by the teams with the best w/l record and the 4th spot is taken by the team who has the highest total points among the remaining teams. Further, the 1st seed gets to choose among the other 3 teams whom he plays in the 1st round.

 

As it is playing out right now, it wouldn't have any effect. I'm in 1st in terms of w/l but also have the most points. The guy with the next highest is tied for 4th with the guy who's got the 3rd most. None the less, there's a few more weeks. Also, there's a few guys who have put up pretty decent point totals but have sort of crappy records. If they keep putting up good numbers, they'll have a chance (especially if the two guys ranked 2 and 3 in points over take the guys ahead of them). If it was strictly by record, they might already be eliminated.

 

I agree with this. The other two things I like about a H2H league:

 

1. It rewards consistency. In a total points league, I think you are disproportionately rewarded by freak occurrences -- if a QB goes wild and throws for 5 touchdowns and 400+ yards, that gives you too much of an advantage for the entire season in points and insulates you from future bad performances, whereas in H2H you are rewarded in your likely win that week but you still have to have a quarterback who doesn't put up stinkers the rest of the season.

 

2. It increases competitiveness. You can talk smack to whomever you are playing in any given week.

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