muck Posted November 12, 2008 Share Posted November 12, 2008 (edited) Projected Over / Outperform Current W/L % in Future Games: +0.242 KC (i.e, current W/L is 0.111 and current projections have them at 0.353 in their final 7 games ... or going 2-5 to finish the season) +0.202 DET +0.193 CIN +0.151 SF +0.126 OAK ... -0.103 NE -0.150 WAS -0.156 CAR -0.251 NYG -0.253 TEN (i.e, current W/L is 1.000 and current projections have them at 0.747 in their final 7 games ... or going 5-2 to finish the season) ........................ Widest Expected Average Margin of Victory (or Loss) in Future Games: -9.5 DET -9.3 STL -7.5 CIN -6.2 OAK -4.8 KC ... +4.0 ARI +4.1 TB +4.1 NYJ +4.6 NYG +7.0 TEN ........................ Points Allowed by the Average Future Defense to Face: DET 19.7 pts allowed on average by future opponents (i.e., they're really stingy) NYG 20.1 CIN 20.3 PIT 20.5 DAL 20.5 ... STL 23.9 SF 23.9 KC 24.2 MIA 24.5 CHI 25.0 (i.e., ole!) ........................ Points Scored by the Average Future Offense to Face: NYG 24.3 pts scored on average by future opponents (i.e., be ready to bet the 'over') MIN 24.2 CAR 24.1 JAX 24.1 SEA 23.8 ... KC 21.0 IND 20.9 SF 20.6 SD 20.3 MIA 19.3 (i.e., playing against JV offenses) ........................ Projected Playoff Teams and Seeding 14-2 TEN 10-6 NYJ 10-6 BAL 8-8 DEN 10-6 NE 10-6 PIT 12-4 NYG 11-5 CAR 10-6 ARI 9-7 CHI 11-5 WAS 10-6 TB ........................ 2009 NFL Draft Projected Order 1-15 DET 3-13 CIN 3-13 KC 4-12 STL 4-12 SEA 4-12 OAK 5-11 SF 6-10 HOU 6-10 CLE 7-9 JAX 7-9 NO 8-8 SD 8-8 GB 8-8 MIN 8-8 DAL 9-7 BUF 9-7 PHI 9-7 IND 9-7 MIA 10-6 ATL ........................ Next Weeks Winners (76-52 through last week; didn't pick week one games): BUF beats CLE NYJ beats NE MIA beats OAK PIT beats SD NYG beats BAL PHI beats CIN TEN beats JAX IND beats HOU ATL beats DEN NO beats KC WAS beats DAL CHI beats GB TB beats MIN CAR beats DET ARI beats SEA SF beats STL Edited November 12, 2008 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 12, 2008 Author Share Posted November 12, 2008 ...this takes a ton of time to do... If nobody finds any of this worth discussing, I'm going to punt on future weeks. I just have too much to do otherwise... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted November 12, 2008 Share Posted November 12, 2008 I'm sure most of us find it interesting and are appreciative. I don't have [b}muck[/b] to discuss, but will throw something out there... I find it interesting that you think San Diego sucks so much Since you have SD and DEN finishing with the same record, do you think that DEN beats 'em in the final game or is there some other tie breaker you're looking at? muck (author) or much? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Holy Roller Posted November 12, 2008 Share Posted November 12, 2008 Muck, I find this very interesting every week. Sorry I haven't commented on all your effort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skippy Posted November 12, 2008 Share Posted November 12, 2008 I never add to the thread, Muck, but I do read it and find it very interesting. FWIW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j2v Posted November 12, 2008 Share Posted November 12, 2008 I never add to the thread, Muck, but I do read it and find it very interesting. FWIW +1 and then some. It's good stuff, just don't know what I'd add Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 12, 2008 Author Share Posted November 12, 2008 (edited) I'm sure most of us find it interesting and are appreciative. I don't have muck to discuss, but will throw something out there... I find it interesting that you think San Diego sucks so much Since you have SD and DEN finishing with the same record, do you think that DEN beats 'em in the final game or is there some other tie breaker you're looking at? I don't get into tie-breakers...I just project based on the probability of winning ... so, if a team is projects to have a 0.600 winning percentage over the final four games of the season, that would be calculated at being 4.2 wins and 2.8 losses ... add that to their existing W/L % and figure out their W/L % for the season ... whomever has the highest W/L % gets the nod. So, currently, DEN has a slightly higher W/L percentage than does SD, but once rounding is taken into account, each team ends up at 8-8. Also, it may be worth noting that, based on a ranking of the projected end-of-year W/L %, both teams are in the bottom half of the NFL... Edited November 12, 2008 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 12, 2008 Author Share Posted November 12, 2008 +1 and then some. It's good stuff, just don't know what I'd add I don't know ... maybe even just an observation or two ... like: Who'd have thought that before the season started that all these teams below would be on a pace for .500 or worse records and be out of the playoffs at the end of the year: 4-12 SEA 6-10 HOU 6-10 CLE 7-9 JAX 7-9 NO 8-8 SD 8-8 GB 8-8 MIN 8-8 DAL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 12, 2008 Author Share Posted November 12, 2008 Or, maybe, "who in the h3ll is going to lose to DET"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 12, 2008 Author Share Posted November 12, 2008 (edited) A study in contrasts: NYG: +4.6 pts / game = Average winning margin 24.3 pts / game = Average future opponent average point scored per game 20.1 pts / game = Average future opponent average points allowed per game -0.251 expected W/L % underperformance (vs. current W/L %) over the rest of the season KC: -4.8 pts / game = average losing margin 21.0 pts / game = Average future opponent average point scored per game 24.2 pts / game = Average future opponent average points allowed per game +0.242 expected W/L % outperformance (vs. current W/L %) over the rest of the season ...in other words, if KC puts together a decent string to close out the season, don't read too much into it as it regards whether or not they've turned a corner...same thing with NYG hitting a tough patch prior to the playoffs... Edited November 12, 2008 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pig devilz Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 I can see that this must take a good amount of your time....that is appreciated. to sit and study the numbers is fascinating. but wouldn't it also be helpful to know average numbers on past opponents? (dont mean to cause you more work, honest) ie. a team has a good record because they played bad teams, and vice versa and their schedule is about to flip flop? also....concerning my Patriots...this may also pertain to other teams, but honestly i didn't do the math on them. their avg future opponent scored 21.9 points per game the Patriots allowed 17.8 points per game. their avg future opponent allows 21.55 points per game. the Patriots scored 20.9 points per game. how does this translate into the Patriots losing 3 out of their last 7 games? does it have something to do with their avg winning margin? or the differentials? and would it make sense to throw out 'blow out' games Jets/StL, NE/Buff? but i guess that would be an entirely different way of calculating.... thanks.....and dont go to a whole lot of trouble with the numbers if you don't already have them. good stuff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pancake Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 I never add to the thread, Muck, but I do read it and find it very interesting. FWIW +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
policyvote Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 So muck, who do my Lions beat? Right now, my money is on 0-11 beats 11-0 on Turkey Day. It's just too damn perfect; the Lions will finally have raised futility to an art form. Peace policy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROYALWITCHEESE Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 Next Weeks Winners (76-52 through last week; didn't pick week one games):BUF beats CLE NYJ beats NE MIA beats OAK PIT beats SD NYG beats BAL PHI beats CIN TEN beats JAX IND beats HOU ATL beats DEN NO beats KC WAS beats DAL CHI beats GB TB beats MIN CAR beats DET ARI beats SEA SF beats STL Picking all the favorites must be pretty tough... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 I can see that this must take a good amount of your time....that is appreciated.to sit and study the numbers is fascinating. but wouldn't it also be helpful to know average numbers on past opponents? (dont mean to cause you more work, honest) ie. a team has a good record because they played bad teams, and vice versa and their schedule is about to flip flop? I gave this sort of info last week; no one commented so I did not repeat it. also....concerning my Patriots...this may also pertain to other teams, but honestly i didn't do the math on them. their avg future opponent scored 21.9 points per game the Patriots allowed 17.8 points per game. their avg future opponent allows 21.55 points per game. the Patriots scored 20.9 points per game. how does this translate into the Patriots losing 3 out of their last 7 games? does it have something to do with their avg winning margin? or the differentials? and would it make sense to throw out 'blow out' games Jets/StL, NE/Buff? but i guess that would be an entirely different way of calculating.... First, I project W/L % for each team based on the games yet to play (so, a team may project to win 4.721 games and lose 2.279 games over the final seven games of the season), and then add that to their current wins and losses to determine the W/L % for the season for each team ... which is then used to project playoff participants. So, assuming you're right on your numbers (no time to double check right now), NE's current Margin of Victory (MoV) is +3.1 ... and their future opponents have a MoV of +0.35 ... indicating that the teams that NE are going to play teams that are relatively decent (on average) ... so, their future W/L % would be slightly lower than it would be if (say) they were facing teams that had a MoV of exactly 0 ... hence them winning four (rounded) and losing three (rounded). A couple of other things that play into my projections include: * the differential between the historic W/L % of teams played in games that didn't involve the reference team vs. the W/L % of the reference team ... which allows us to compare how, for example, the teams TEN played when they were playing teams other than TEN in order to determine how difficult TENs schedule actually is...and then compare that to everyone elses' historic schedule difficulty. * the differential between the historic W/L % of teams still to be played by the reference team vs. the historic W/L % of the reference team ... which allows for a comparison of how strong the teams are when playing teams other than the reference team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 So muck, who do my Lions beat? Right now, my money is on 0-11 beats 11-0 on Turkey Day. It's just too damn perfect; the Lions will finally have raised futility to an art form. Peace policy Generally, I project the future W/L % of each team based on a variety of factors. One way to sum it up for DET is something like this: * Based on all of the inputs I look at, DET has about a 0.200 forward W/L % for the rest of the season, or about a 1 in 5 chance of winning each game. * DET has seven more games on their schedule. * Statistically, they should win 1.4 games ... rounded to 1.0 games. Who it is is anyone's guess. NOTE: If my probabilities are right, there is a 20% chance that they go 0-16; also, there is about a 0.001% chance that they win the final seven games of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Picking all the favorites must be pretty tough... AHEM: THU 8:15 PM NYJ @ NEP -3.5 SUN 8:15 PM DAL @ WAS 1.5 NOTE: I just go from the spreadsheet to the post without really thinking about it ... and doing this has given me a 59.375% winning record when picking the winners outright of every game of the season (except week 1 games where there were no inputs available). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROYALWITCHEESE Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 AHEM: THU 8:15 PM NYJ @ NEP -3.5 SUN 8:15 PM DAL @ WAS 1.5 NOTE: I just go from the spreadsheet to the post without really thinking about it ... and doing this has given me a 59.375% winning record when picking the winners outright of every game of the season (except week 1 games where there were no inputs available). I was poking fun. I know you spend lots of time on this... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pig devilz Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 thanks for the explaination muck....appreciated i'l search for the info from last week...i didnt see it then 1 of 3 losses already....damn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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