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2008 Week 11 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

25-10-2 so far, 2-1 last weekend.

 

Seeing a few games right now. The Thurs night game will be interesting, as two of my top plays last week were NYJ and NE. Haven't started studying angles for that game, but it will be an interesting game for sure.

 

Good luck this week guys!

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I usually do parlay's mainly even though some people consider them sucker bets....but I really only consider teasers a sucker bet....if I put in several parlays with a certain amount of money, I usually hit on one or two of them and make out more in the long run...

 

 

 

this week I am targeting the over (51) in the Broncos/Falcons game, the over (50) in the Colts/Texans game and the Panthers -14 over the Lions...

 

these seem to be the best bets this week imo...along with the Titans -3 at Jacksonville, Dolphins -10 1/2 vs Raiders and whatever the over will be in the Cardinals/Seahawks game...

 

the rest of the games seem a bit iffy right now....and the Dallas/Washington game is up in the air with Portis and his sprained MCL, I believe this would make their offense one dimensional....not that Dallas has a strong enough defense anyways, but it would definitely help Dallas with their pass rush...

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After hating the Eagles giving 3 last week, I love them giving 9 this week. They've been pretty easy to bet on this year - "good" team, stay away (they covered 2 of these, but lost the rest), but bad team load up especially if single digits. They're closest win was 9 pts over Pittsburgh, and everything else has been 13 or more. Now have Cincy coming to town and they know they need to start a big winning streak.

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After hating the Eagles giving 3 last week, I love them giving 9 this week. They've been pretty easy to bet on this year - "good" team, stay away (they covered 2 of these, but lost the rest), but bad team load up especially if single digits. They're closest win was 9 pts over Pittsburgh, and everything else has been 13 or more. Now have Cincy coming to town and they know they need to start a big winning streak.

 

I don't like Cincy being a home dog getting 9....and being in Philly, I expect the line to jump at least a point and a half....

 

having said that, the Eagles will clear the Bengals by 3 TD's most likely...

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I am by no means an expert and my money fluctuates.... that said, here's what I am looking at this week:

 

NE -3.5 -- Only a FG (plus a half) at home against the Jets? Really?

DEN +6 -- ATL is a nice story but Denver can keep it closer

CIN +9 -- They're gonna be scrappy in this one... they'll lose, but I can see it being 27-20 or somethin' like that

MIN +4 -- Am I missing something here? AP is gonna run all over the Bucs and the Vikes could win outright.... (note: just looked up some of the trends and it looks like MIN hasn't performed ATS and TB has... maybe I'm not missing anything... still like MIN to cover... barely)

 

Lots of lines haven't posted yet due to injuries, etc. I'll update this as warranted.

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NE -3.5 -- Only a FG (plus a half) at home against the Jets? Really?

 

There is a theory that exists called the "hook" theory.

 

Essentially, what it means is this: if you see a line of -3.5 or -7.5, grab the favorite. The crux of the idea is that Vegas is putting an extra half-point on the spread to get the public thinking "Geez, I am getting more than FG (or more than a TD if the line is -7.5)". Vegas wants the bettor to think they are getting value, and lean on this side.

 

I think this NE/NYJ is a perfect example...division game, jets better with Favre, NE finally ripe for the road dog to upset them.....and now, with a 3.5 point spread, NYJ backers can look at the number and think "Not only might the Jets win, but they can even lose by just a FG, and I still cover".

 

Don't get swayed.....NE takes care of business at home against an overrated Jets squad....NE 27, NYJ 17

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I am by no means an expert and my money fluctuates.... .

 

I got fluctuated pretty hard last week.

 

I decided to get off the two team parlay/teaser train and try one play for all the doughnuts and got blown up. Then I got blown up trying to get out of the hole on Monday night with typical results. Tried to get out cheap using the MNF parlay wtih Az and over. I knew the possibility of a Singletary bounce existed and I ignored it. Not good.

 

When I first saw this weeks lines I liked New England -3.5 right off the bat. I think a lot of books have this game at (-130) for the underdog, and +110 for the favorite. But if you buy the hook with New England you lose all of that value and they will make you play like (-125) or so if you want NE-3. In other words, the books are looking to seriously rape the betting public in this game, regardless of which side you play. There is only one sensible way to play this game in my opinion. You just have to take NE -3.5 and hope Favre can deliver what you need.

 

The Jets have played better, Favre has been collared and tamed to a degree, defense has improved, everything looks good.

 

But let's face it. This is a game in Foxborough. This is a pivotal game in the division. The Patriots even without Brady are still the dragon the Jets must slay to lay claim. And as much as I would love to see the Jets torch them I just can't bring myself to believe that will happen. The Pats have pretty much owned the Jets in this decade. Right now I am thinking the Pats are the play for Thursday. Don't bother buying the hook, I would wait until you can get a ML, and even that number will probably be a rip-off. About only one way to play this one unless the books adjust.

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There is a theory that exists called the "hook" theory.

 

Essentially, what it means is this: if you see a line of -3.5 or -7.5, grab the favorite. The crux of the idea is that Vegas is putting an extra half-point on the spread to get the public thinking "Geez, I am getting more than FG (or more than a TD if the line is -7.5)". Vegas wants the bettor to think they are getting value, and lean on this side.

 

I think this NE/NYJ is a perfect example...division game, jets better with Favre, NE finally ripe for the road dog to upset them.....and now, with a 3.5 point spread, NYJ backers can look at the number and think "Not only might the Jets win, but they can even lose by just a FG, and I still cover".

 

Don't get swayed.....NE takes care of business at home against an overrated Jets squad....NE 27, NYJ 17

I think that it is actually the opposite. I'm sure Dre has the numbers. I've always heard that when the number is 3.5 and 7.5, the dog covers more times than not. I will wait for his response...

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I think that it is actually the opposite. I'm sure Dre has the numbers. I've always heard that when the number is 3.5 and 7.5, the dog covers more times than not. I will wait for his response...

 

I'd like to see Dre's analtysis too.

 

FWIW, Tampa is also a -3.5 favorite this weekend (though the betting public jumped on it and is now -4 at some books due to 74% of the money coming in on Tampa).

 

Similarly, PIT is also -3.5, and a whooping 96% of the money thus far has come in on PIT.

 

 

Looks like the smart money is on the favorites?

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I will continue to ride TENN until proven wrong. I just got them at -3 and getting +105.

I have to agree. Keep riding that train...

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The difficult part w/ the line is getting an accurate read if it is an opening or closing number.

 

My database uses closing numbers. Many times, a 3.5 point opener is bet to a 3 or a 4 by the close.

 

But what I can say is this, favs that close at -3.5 are basically hitting 50/50 since 2005 and the same since 2001, separated by only 1 game in each.

 

Favs on a -3 point close do much worse than those on a -4 point close. You could surmise that some of the -3.5 point lines are steamed in either direction to close and therefore those that gain momentum from -3.5 to -4 do better, and those that lose momentum from -3.5 to -3 do worse.

 

Mentally, Vegas will mess with you buy putting hooks on key numbers so that you "think" a certain way as soon as you see the number. Vegas is huge on perception and initial reaction. Think of them as people who are paid to market consumer goods. They do their market research and know what turns the public on, what turns them off, what interests them, and how they should present their wares for optimal sale. In the same way, but just with a single number, Vegas plays on public opinion.

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With the bad weather in NE tonight (and the good Ds) , I am hitting the under 42 and a hook. I added the under in the VT/Miami game tonight in a parlay. It's also low at 42, but VT's explosion last week was at home with a fluke 250+ yd rushing day against a soft Maryland team that doesn't travel well.

 

Navin Johnson is RIGHT!!

 

REREND!!

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I have a bad feeling about my Pats tonight. Jets are one of the few teams who don't get intimidated coming into Gillette. The weather will affect the crowd. I'd never bet against the Pats myself, but this is a perfect spot to take the Jets, IMHO.

 

Whenever I'm backing a certain team and I know someone who is a die hard fan, I usually call them up and ask them about it. Almost always die hards will stick with their teams, but in the small cases when they go against them - I feel alot stronger about my play.

 

For example last week I called for my Texans to come up short against the Ravens.....you just know when your team isnt going to be able to come through with a win.

 

I was already playing, but now somehow feel better about it:

 

Jets +3.5

Under 41.5 (smaller play)

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Yeah, the more I think about this game, the more I am thinking Jets. Not sure why exactly. One trend that is interesting to note in this game is that the road team has covered the last 6 in the series. That has little bearing to the players on the field tonight, but it does have to make you a bit uneasy betting the Pats here.

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Ok, I have finally locked in:

 

Jets +3.5

 

Jets +9.5

under 48.5 teaser

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one of those that looks like Vegas is begging you to take NE -3.5 +120 (currently on bodog)

 

ok, I will bite - I think the public is overvaluing Favr-ra and the J E T S somewhat.

 

I think NE is toughening up nicely on D, and will scheme Favre well

 

NE -3.5

 

also:

 

take Akron tonight -3 strong play

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Hey all, I'm new to the place and figured I'd weigh in on tonights game.

 

The Jets have the better offensive line and Jones should have a great night, I have the Jets running efficiency being better on the road then the Patriots at home. Add in the rain and the advantage has to go to the line that has been playing great as of late.

 

This game has the potential for some serious TO's since it will be cold and wet but the Jets will be coached up on the road avenging that first loss.

 

Good luck with whatever way you go, I'm all over the jets

Edited by nflguy
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