2008 Week 12 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

A lot of interesting lines out there this week. I can't believe this is the last full week before Thanksgiving Thursday games. Season is flying.

 

Many more divisional games including a couple w/ 1 point lines:

 

Mia/NE

Atl/Car

 

Then you've got the nice 1 point line on the Phi/Bal game and a couple interesting matchups w/ the NYJ/Ten and Ari/NYG games. Those are the more "popular" non-primetime games this week. Looks like some great games.

 

Good luck this week!

[rattsass]

I had it good last week at 4-2. That brings my posted play totals to 27-13 I believe.

 

The interesting thing about this season is that if you look at the Pick 'em pool for the Huddle you will see that I am 75-80 predicting the spread in every game. Granted, those picks are made early in the week, and I do change my mind by gametime in some cases, but 75-80 is not great.

 

Which clearly points out how important it is to play the right games. And to avoid playing too many games. I can hit 27 of 40. But I can't hit 93 of 155 like that genius Scott Boyter.

 

Know your limitations.

 

When I first saw the lines for this week the one that caught my eye right away was the Thursday night game with the Steelers at -11 vs the Bengals. My first thought was, oh hell yes. Give me the 11 points.

 

The higher spread favorites have not fared well this season, not sure of the exact numbers but it seems like the highest spread of any given week never covers.

 

It looks like yet another Vegas slaughter. A prime-time game. Good team vs. bad. Steelers absolutely ROLLED the Bengals at Cincy earlier this season. It is hard to find one good reason to put your money on the Bengals here.

 

Except the fact that the same people that lost betting on the Steelers last week will be at it again. I would think the Steelers would be a huge % favorite play this week, and that usually leads to trouble.

 

I have no real logic for this pick other than the contrarian angle and the double digit number. Yes, the Bengals have played better since that Steelers shellacking, and the Steelers have regressed to the point where they barely took care of the listless Chargers at home last week. Rothlisberger has been getting beat up pretty good. The Steelers are short handed in the secondary. I guess there are a few signs that might point to the Bengals being to compete in this game. But come on. Can somebody talk me down here?

 

Am I crazy for thinking Bengals in this one?

Edited November 19, 2008 by rattsass

[Steeltown Dre]

Bengals are dealing w/ some bad O-Line injuries and that is never good vs. the Steelers:

 

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2008111.../811190395/1066

[rattsass]

Bengals are dealing w/ some bad O-Line injuries and that is never good vs. the Steelers:

 

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2008111.../811190395/1066

Dre, maybe you can verify this. Double digit favorites are 3-17 this season. Is that right?

[Steeltown Dre]

Dre, maybe you can verify this. Double digit favorites are 3-17 this season. Is that right?

 

Ratt - DD dogs I show at 14-2 ATS. Sometimes the line is tricky if it closes at 9.5 or not.

 

DD dogs of +9.5 or more are 17-4 ATS.

 

As you can see from years past, this has been quite a strange season for the DD favs:

 

season ATS

2008 14-2-0 (7.9)

2007 22-26-0 (-2.4)

2006 20-15-0 (1.2)

2005 14-14-1 (-0.8)

2004 14-12-1 (-3.0)

2003 11-10-0 (0.3)

2002 10-8-0 (0.9)

 

It is for this very reason that I have been hesitant to select a DD fav only because they are a DD fav. It seems to be working this year but not in years past, at least not nearly as well. My system selected Cin +9.5 last week, the line closed at +9. It was borderline DD for several days, but I didn't even take that into account when making the play. I never really ride a single trend when making a selection, not even a really strong one. It's a combination of many trends, gut feelings and statistics. But all trends I look at w/ any "weight" have to go back more than just 1 year. Otherwise, it's more of a coincidence than anything. However, I will say that I've never played "on" a DD fav this year, not really because of that trend but because there are better games out there. If you're loving a DD Fav, I'd look for another play. I have only played "on" 3 favorites of more than 7 in my almost 40 plays this year (I went 2-1 in those 3). Usually I am a small fav or dog player.

[nimal]

Interesting...although I like Cincy to cover 11 against Pitt as a DD underdog, I LOVE Dallas -10 against SF this week....

 

Other games I really like:

 

Washington -3 against Seahawks

Lions +8.5 against Tampa

Panthers +1.5 against Falcons

Jets +5 against Titans

Giants -3 against Cards....

Browns -3 against Texans....

 

 

I think im going to go hard on Panthers +1.5 against Atlanta....

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

for what it is worth - here are my plays this week

 

Wager ID Wager Result Bet Type Wager Date Season Wager Amt Payout Amt Total Payout Amt Paid Balance Due Player P/L

-------- ------------ -------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- ------------ -------- -------------------- ----------

11354 Pending Straight Wager 11/18/2008 2008 NFL Football $55.00 $50.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00

 

Pick 1 : Under 34 (Pending)

Score : Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers

11/20/2008 7:15 PM

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Wager ID Wager Result Bet Type Wager Date Season Wager Amt Payout Amt Total Payout Amt Paid Balance Due Player P/L

-------- ------------ -------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- ------------ -------- -------------------- ----------

11355 Pending Straight Wager 11/18/2008 2008 NFL Football $110.00 $100.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00

 

Pick 1 : Under 38.5 (Pending)

Score : Philadelphia Eagles

Baltimore Ravens

11/23/2008 12:00 PM

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Wager ID Wager Result Bet Type Wager Date Season Wager Amt Payout Amt Total Payout Amt Paid Balance Due Player P/L

-------- ------------ -------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- ------------ -------- -------------------- ----------

11357 Pending Straight Wager 11/18/2008 2008 NFL Football $55.00 $50.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00

 

Pick 1 : +2.5 Minnesota Vikings (Pending)

Score : Minnesota Vikings

Jacksonville Jaguars

11/23/2008 12:00 PM

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Wager ID Wager Result Bet Type Wager Date Season Wager Amt Payout Amt Total Payout Amt Paid Balance Due Player P/L

-------- ------------ -------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- ------------ -------- -------------------- ----------

11363 Pending Straight Wager 11/19/2008 2008 NFL Football $55.00 $50.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00

 

Pick 1 : Over 40.5 (Pending)

Score : New York Jets

Tennessee Titans

11/23/2008 12:00 PM

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Wager ID Wager Result Bet Type Wager Date Season Wager Amt Payout Amt Total Payout Amt Paid Balance Due Player P/L

-------- ------------ -------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- ------------ -------- -------------------- ----------

11364 Pending Straight Wager 11/19/2008 2008 NFL Football $55.00 $50.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00

 

Pick 1 : Over 39.5 (Pending)

Score : Philadelphia Eagles

Baltimore Ravens

11/23/2008 12:00 PM

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Wager ID Wager Result Bet Type Wager Date Season Wager Amt Payout Amt Total Payout Amt Paid Balance Due Player P/L

-------- ------------ -------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- ------------ -------- -------------------- ----------

11365 Pending Straight Wager 11/19/2008 2008 NFL Football $55.00 $50.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00

 

Pick 1 : Under 43.5 (Pending)

Score : Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs

11/23/2008 12:00 PM

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Wager ID Wager Result Bet Type Wager Date Season Wager Amt Payout Amt Total Payout Amt Paid Balance Due Player P/L

-------- ------------ -------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- ------------ -------- -------------------- ----------

11366 Pending Straight Wager 11/19/2008 2008 NFL Football $55.00 $50.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00

 

Pick 1 : Under 42.5 (Pending)

Score : Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos

11/23/2008 3:05 PM

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Wager ID Wager Result Bet Type Wager Date Season Wager Amt Payout Amt Total Payout Amt Paid Balance Due Player P/L

-------- ------------ -------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- ------------ -------- -------------------- ----------

11367 Pending Straight Wager 11/19/2008 2008 NFL Football $55.00 $50.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00

 

Pick 1 : Under 40.5 (Pending)

Score : Washington Redskins

Seattle Seahawks

11/23/2008 3:15 PM

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Wager ID Wager Result Bet Type Wager Date Season Wager Amt Payout Amt Total Payout Amt Paid Balance Due Player P/L

-------- ------------ -------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- ------------ -------- -------------------- ----------

11368 Pending 5 team parlay 11/19/2008 2008 NFL Football $20.00 $400.00 $0.00 $0.00 N/A $0.00

 

Pick 1 : Under 43.5 (Pending)

Score : Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs

11/23/2008 12:00 PM

 

Pick 2 : Over 40.5 (Pending)

Score : New York Jets

Tennessee Titans

11/23/2008 12:00 PM

 

Pick 3 : Over 39.5 (Pending)

Score : Philadelphia Eagles

Baltimore Ravens

11/23/2008 12:00 PM

 

Pick 4 : Under 42.5 (Pending)

Score : Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos

11/23/2008 3:05 PM

 

Pick 5 : Under 40.5 (Pending)

Score : Washington Redskins

Seattle Seahawks

11/23/2008 3:15 PM

 

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Totals For: 008 (9 wagers)

[xMRogers]

If I'm reading that right, you have 100 on under 38.5 and over on 39.5 in the Philly/Bal game - kindof the anti-middle sort of bet (you lose both at 39)?

 

I like Pitt tonight - believe Cincy falls apart and Pitt rolls. Also like the over

[rattsass]

If I'm reading that right, you have 100 on under 38.5 and over on 39.5 in the Philly/Bal game - kindof the anti-middle sort of bet (you lose both at 39)?

 

I like Pitt tonight - believe Cincy falls apart and Pitt rolls. Also like the over

Yeah, after further consideration I can't roll with the Bengals tonight. The overtime game Sunday - short week- injuries- and now CJ is out. Just too much going against them here despite the Steelers issues. Looks like a no play for me.

[SheikYerbuti]

I've been on the Titans every week this year without hesitation. However, I gotta say this matchup with the Jets scares me. I may lay off this weekend.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

If I'm reading that right, you have 100 on under 38.5 and over on 39.5 in the Philly/Bal game - kindof the anti-middle sort of bet (you lose both at 39)?

 

 

Damn !!!! thanks , the play was entered wrong it was/ is Phi +1

 

just called and had it changed

 

So now I have the over & Philly to win

Edited November 20, 2008 by MustOfBeenDrunk

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

xMRogers - thanks for the catch - if i hit the philly +1 wager PM me your address and i will send you off a 6-pack

[Steeltown Dre]

Last night if you had either side or total in straight wagers, you were sweating it until the bitter (cold) end.

 

But for teaser players, it was a dream come true. Every combination of side and total won last night and won with relative ease. Not often that it happens on a primetime matchup, so I'm sure books were not enjoying it, but I doubt they lost as much as they won on the Steelers bets last week. I heard (from Brandon Lang of all people) that the SD/Pit game was the heaviest wagered NFL game of the entire season.

[nimal]

Wow thats crazy. Yea I teased under and bengals, but also under and pitt...hit them both nicely....

 

Also placed a bet on the second half over on Pitt and that hit nicely to....

 

Thats also very crazy that last weeks Pitt vs. Charger game was the most heavily wagered game.... considering I bet just about every game....that was 1 game I pretty much stayed away from......

[rattsass]

Last night if you had either side or total in straight wagers, you were sweating it until the bitter (cold) end.

 

But for teaser players, it was a dream come true. Every combination of side and total won last night and won with relative ease. Not often that it happens on a primetime matchup, so I'm sure books were not enjoying it, but I doubt they lost as much as they won on the Steelers bets last week. I heard (from Brandon Lang of all people) that the SD/Pit game was the heaviest wagered NFL game of the entire season.

Funny you should mention that Dre. My friend who has been riding my coat-tails to fun and profit this season was pressing me hard for a play for last nights game. I told him that I was actually leaning Pittsburgh, but wouldn't play the game. He asked about a teaser, and I told him that I thought the lines for this game were really sharp and I thought the best bet might be to play teasers both ways.

 

But I didn't play it and neither did he.

 

I have two plays this week for sure, may add more later.

 

Arizona +3.5 Am I dreaming here? Arizona matches up pretty well with the Giants, and truth be told, they may be the ONLY team capable of taking them down in the NFC. Cardinals are nails at home. And this will probably be the Giants toughest test on the road. I think the Cards win this one outright so this is the easiest of picks for me.

 

Colts +3 Yet another game where I favor the underdog to win outright. This will probably be a close game. But as we have seen time and time again this season, the Colts find a way to win the close ones, while the Chargers have been astoundingly adept at losing the close ones. Parlaying these two. Teasing these two. All freaking over these two.

[Vinatieri Is God]

I almost never post here but like to read all the picks. I'm always afraid that if I tell everyone what I am going to do and it loses, I will feel bad. That being said, I am going to take a shot with some local knowledge.

 

For you hockey bettors, Bruins under 5 1/2 tonight (-125). Good luck.

[wildcat2334]

in the wake of the Pitt/SD - a great little column by Bill Simmons:

#4 and #7 are fantastic

 

good luck this weekend everyone!

 

All right, it's finally time to discuss last week's "Troy Polamalu Game" and its ranking on the "Alcoa's Greatest Football Gambling Moments" list. I batted it around with an eight-man committee of buddies, and we came up with the following top seven moments from the past 25 years:

 

1. The Music City Miracle: The hidden great thing about the winning TD: Tennessee was giving 5, and the miracle TD gave the Titans a 21-16 lead. With only a few seconds remaining, you'd think they would have gone for two so they could lead by a touchdown, right? NOOOOOOOOO! They kicked the extra point to go up six. What's the difference between five and six? I have no idea. Nobody remembers this. Greatest and most inexplicable extra-point kick ever.

 

2. The Polamalu Game: At least 700 readers e-mailed me Sunday after the Miracle Cover That Wasn't to say either, "I thought of you as soon as it happened!" or "You have to write about this!" Apparently, I am the go-to columnist for any watershed gambling event. And honestly, I couldn't be prouder. The great thing was that you were either euphoric-then-furious or furious-then-euphoric, but either way, everyone with gambling/fantasy interests swung from one end of the pendulum to the other in five minutes. Amazing.

 

3. Adam Vinatieri's Two-Point Run: A forgotten Monday night moment from 1999, when the Pats were 3.5-point favorites and scored a controversial go-ahead TD as time expired. The Bills left the field in protest, only the Pats still had to kick the extra point … so Vinatieri joyously ran it in against the first 0-0-0 defense as Pete Carroll pumped his fist and reacted like a guy who would definitely be coaching college in two years. Final score: Pats 25, Bills 21.

 

4. The Ronnie Harmon Game: Back in 1990, the Browns hosted a wild-card game against Buffalo as 3.5-point favorites. Buffalo cut it to four with four minutes left, only Buffalo's kicker (I won't say his name) missed the extra point. Egads. Buffalo's D got the ball back, then Jim Kelly drove the Bills down the field before Ronnie Harmon dropped the game-winning TD with 14 seconds left and Kelly got picked on the final play. That was the first season I started gambling. I had the Browns. I was hooked.

 

5. The Rulon Jones Safety: Denver up three and giving 4.5 in the '86 playoffs, less than two minutes to play, the Pats had one last chance … and Jones sacked Tony Eason in the end zone for the back-breaking cover. The worst part was that Eason turtled. In the end zone.

 

6. The Monday Night Miracle: Miami takes a 23-point lead into the fourth quarter, but then Vinny Testaverde and the Jets score 30 points in the fourth and win the game in OT, 40-37. I'm 99 percent sure that they were favored by three, and it ended up being the greatest push in NFL history.

 

7. The Tamarick Vanover Game: A Monday night game from '95 that … well, allow my friend Brad to explain. Here's his unedited memory of the Vanover Game:

 

"Chargers up four, getting between 3.5 and 5.5 points, inside K.C.'s 10, less than two minutes left. The Chargers have three bad plays, kick a short field goal. Up seven, we'll say up 12 with spread. [steve] Bono drives the Chiefs down the field (1:12 remaining) with maybe one timeout (they used them on defense), throws an 18-yard touchdown pass with 15 seconds to go. Overtime, still up five with spread.

 

"[stan] Humphries knocked out, in comes [Gale] Gilbert. Chargers punt after having a big play negated by a penalty, Vanover (with multiple guys around him) doesn't call for a fair catch. AVOIDS 3 GUYS AND THE CHARGER PUNTER WHO LOOKED LIKE HE HAD THE ANGLE AND GOES 86 YARDS. CHIEFS WIN BY 6.

 

"I lost a ton of money. Called my bookie (who had paid me seven weeks in a row) and told him that I would pay him on Thursday. Wednesday, Oct, 11, I am on a plane to boot camp.

 

"I had signed up for the Navy in May of that year, things were way out of control gambling, credit card fraud, casino, credit card fraud, drugs, credit card fraud and I knew at some point I would need to disappear. Then the O.J. trial started and I sat home everyday and watched it. I had avoided the Navy recruiter for months. Minutes before the verdict was read there was a knock on my door and it was him. He told me he came by then because it was the one time he knew exactly where I would be. Since I was winning at gambling, I told him to screw off. Not long after I was knocking on his door explaining that I had a sudden burst of patriotism and got on a plane."

 

God bless America.

[xMRogers]

MOBD - no worries - just looking out...

 

Yea, I had the parlay of Pitt and over and for a while had competing interests going, but got the late cover and the pick to make things right. Then also had, in my 12th year of betting, my first ever teaser - Pitt -1 / over 24 / over 31 in Mia-GTech - all cleared easy early. I am now officially in love with the teaser for overs (not sides - being 10 pts off on a side is pretty darn easy).

 

So far this week, I love Ten, and like Indy and Philly- the bandwagon jump-off on Ten this weekend is making me love this game.

 

Indy is just a factor of 'take the last 3 games of each team' sort of thing - going in completely opposite directions

 

Philly is partially a football play and partially a 'there is no way this team can be pretty much out of the playoff race this early' play....

 

Tonight did a round robin parlay on the three college underdogs on ML - need two to win to win a couple units.

[whomper]

I almost never post here but like to read all the picks. I'm always afraid that if I tell everyone what I am going to do and it loses, I will feel bad. That being said, I am going to take a shot with some local knowledge.

 

For you hockey bettors, Bruins under 5 1/2 tonight (-125). Good luck.

 

 

I bet Hockey every night. I usually do very well but havent posted much plays since when I gave plays to wildcat I tanked badly. I actually like your play. Fla doesnt score much and has let up over 50 goals. What scares me is Boston is one of the highest scoring teams in the league. I am on Anaheim team over 2.5 tonight

[Mags]

MOBD - no worries - just looking out...

 

Yea, I had the parlay of Pitt and over and for a while had competing interests going, but got the late cover and the pick to make things right. Then also had, in my 12th year of betting, my first ever teaser - Pitt -1 / over 24 / over 31 in Mia-GTech - all cleared easy early. I am now officially in love with the teaser for overs (not sides - being 10 pts off on a side is pretty darn easy).

 

So far this week, I love Ten, and like Indy and Philly- the bandwagon jump-off on Ten this weekend is making me love this game.

 

Indy is just a factor of 'take the last 3 games of each team' sort of thing - going in completely opposite directions

 

Philly is partially a football play and partially a 'there is no way this team can be pretty much out of the playoff race this early' play....

 

Tonight did a round robin parlay on the three college underdogs on ML - need two to win to win a couple units.

 

xMRogers,

 

How does the round robin parlay work? Looks like it pays 3 to 1 and you just have to hit two of three or how does it work? Thanks! I always see this, but have never tried it.

Edited November 21, 2008 by Mags

[SheikYerbuti]

I just teased TB -1.5 and Denver -3.

 

Straight fades of the Lions and Raiders. Here's to suckage!!

[wildcat2334]

all good whomp - ended up only losing 1 hockey game- no worries - have pulled back after a few rough weeks in the NFL -

 

NCAA is my thang - here are a few plays for yall - good luck

 

tonight - BG -4

 

Cincinnati (-5)

Penn State (-14 1/2)

Utah (-7)

San Diego State (+11 1/2)

[rattsass]

all good whomp - ended up only losing 1 hockey game- no worries - have pulled back after a few rough weeks in the NFL -

 

NCAA is my thang - here are a few plays for yall - good luck

 

tonight - BG -4

 

Cincinnati (-5)

Penn State (-14 1/2)

Utah (-7)

San Diego State (+11 1/2)

Arizona Wildcats -2????

 

Like the Penn State pick.

[wildcat2334]

Arizona Wildcats -2????

 

Like the Penn State pick.

 

 

won't touch it

 

OSU is pretty solid but UA has been tough at home - really tough call either way - I have zero clue on that one

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

won't touch it

 

OSU is pretty solid but UA has been tough at home - really tough call either way - I have zero clue on that one

 

 

How do you feel about this one ? as a homer 8.5 just seems like way to many points to be giving Stanford

 

Pick: +8.5 Stanford Cardinal (Pending)

Score: Stanford Cardinal

California Golden Bears

11/22/2008 2:30 PM