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2008 Week 12 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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How do you feel about this one ? as a homer 8.5 just seems like way to many points to be giving Stanford

 

Pick: +8.5 Stanford Cardinal (Pending)

Score: Stanford Cardinal

California Golden Bears

11/22/2008 2:30 PM

 

 

wow, a little sideways and hammered from BG choking away a 27-7 3rd qtr lead tonight, unreal -

 

tough call - The Big Game, would lean Stanford as well - they are fighting for a bowl berth and are a scrappy squad

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xMRogers,

 

How does the round robin parlay work? Looks like it pays 3 to 1 and you just have to hit two of three or how does it work? Thanks! I always see this, but have never tried it.

 

 

Having now played it, i'll probably not do it again. It essentially hedges your bet bigtime on a 3 team parlay - you put in three sides/totals/whatever and a dollar amount. What it does is then make three two team parlays of your three sides at normal 2 team parlay odds, each at that dollar amount.

 

So I usually in college do $25 three team parlay's with a dog ML, paying somewhere between 12 and 20 to 1. Last year hit a good number of them and profited about 20 units (of the $25 variety). This year have only hit two, but have had so many 2-1's that it's been crazy (at one point, 9 straight 2-1's) - those 2-1's is where the round robin is profitable cause the 2 will hit and at least pay 2.6 to 1 so you'll eek out some profit. However, if all three hit, you get way under what you would if did a three team.

 

Definitely would have paid off for me this year, but on the parlay side it's just not enough payout for me - will go back to the three team large odds ones.

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all good whomp - ended up only losing 1 hockey game- no worries - have pulled back after a few rough weeks in the NFL -

 

NCAA is my thang - here are a few plays for yall - good luck

 

tonight - BG -4

 

Cincinnati (-5)

Penn State (-14 1/2)

Utah (-7)

San Diego State (+11 1/2)

 

 

Dr Bob? Ever heard of him? Tout. Those are his exact plays.

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I bet Hockey every night. I usually do very well but havent posted much plays since when I gave plays to wildcat I tanked badly. I actually like your play. Fla doesnt score much and has let up over 50 goals. What scares me is Boston is one of the highest scoring teams in the league. I am on Anaheim team over 2.5 tonight

 

:wacko:

 

4-1 halfway through the game and they held on for the rest of the game until 3:00 min left. Sorry about that.

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:wacko:

 

4-1 halfway through the game and they held on for the rest of the game until 3:00 min left. Sorry about that.

 

 

No problem. I had 1 bad beat in hockey last night and 1 heartbreaker.

I had the Devils/ Isles under 1.5 goals in the first period. At the 1:30 left in the first period mark the score was 0-0. 20 seconds later the Devils scored 2 goals.

 

Anaheim tied the game at 2 -2 last night with 1 second left in the game. I was praying for the ana OT win or shootout to get that last goal I needed but St Louis won it in OT.

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Dr. Bob hasn't been good in NFL this year, though he did well last weekend. Most weekends have been pretty terrible w/ several "0-fers".

 

This is not my post, but I saw this posted elsewhere:

 

Dr Bob is exactly 50% over the past 2 seasons against his release number since the ESPN lovefest.

(66-66-4)

Using his star weighted system he is 166-171-11 (-22.1 units vs -110)

 

A lot of his followers are obviously way worse than this because they couldn't get his numbers or -110 juice.

(i didnt even include the tout fees he charges)

 

This from a guy who routinely predicts he has a 5-10 point edge over the WA line on his best bets.

 

Hands up all those who think Dr Bob will be 59% going forward. (55%-63%) against thursday lines.

 

When Bob wins its because he is great

 

When Bob loses its because he is plain unlucky or just variance (that my stupid subscribers dont understand)

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Dr. Bob hasn't been good in NFL this year, though he did well last weekend. Most weekends have been pretty terrible w/ several "0-fers".

 

This is not my post, but I saw this posted elsewhere:

 

 

werd - he has been horrible in the NFL - NCAA football, is a different story......

 

I think his analysis is much better in the NCAA - so many more games to choose from.

 

this year has been good, not great, he is hitting at 59%.

 

not a hugh fan of services, but I like Bob's analysis and he does put in some solid work crunching numbers

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all good whomp - ended up only losing 1 hockey game- no worries - have pulled back after a few rough weeks in the NFL -

 

NCAA is my thang - here are a few plays for yall - good luck

 

tonight - BG -4

 

Cincinnati (-5)

Penn State (-14 1/2)

Utah (-7)

San Diego State (+11 1/2)

 

 

 

not a bad Saturday at all- the diggy Doc came thru - looking for some winners Sunday - have been on a bad run in the pros........

 

ended up pounding da Sooners as well!

 

good luck Sunday fellas!

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I am starting to like under 50.5 in Clev/Hous . Its gonna be chilly and they may lean on Jamal with Quinns finger issue so grinding it out on the ground could chew up some clock.

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On Philly, Indy and Ten as mentioned previously - also KC +3.5, Car +1, Arz +3 (probably my least confident play of the day)

 

Couple of parlays (Texans, Chiefs, Vikings ML / big odd 49ers/Lions ML with the Pats-1)

 

Over teaser Texans O40.5 / Pats O32.5 / Eagles O 29.5

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Been doing very well on parlays/teasers the past four weeks. I've stayed away from college, and gone NFL exclusively, and I'm up about 12 units this month. Teams I like to cover straight up this week:

 

BAL -1.5 I keep thinking the Eagles are going to get out of their funk every week, and every week they disappoint. Well, this isn't the week to get out of an offensive slump... I see the Baltimore defense causing trouble all game long for McNabb and company. Ravens win a close, low-scoring game... somewhere around the 17-13 range.

 

NYJ + 5.5 I think the Titans win again this week, but only by a FG. Wouldn't be totally surprised if the Jets won, but I think Tennessee will do just enough... maybe a Favre INT for TD is the deciding score.

 

Other games I like, but not quite enough to play straight wagers:

 

SF + 9.5 Dallas hasn't blown anyone out in several weeks. They're a different team the past month plus, and I think they'll allow the Niners to stay in this game until the 4th quarter. Dallas 27 SF 20

 

MIA +1.5 Miami totally dominated the Pats at Foxboro two months ago... I think the line is about right, but the Dolphins are the team that should be favored by a point or two, not the Pats. It won't be the Wildcat that does the Pats in this time, but rather the Dolphins defense. I look for a couple of key turnovers by NE to cost them the game, and possibly ruin their playoffs chances.

 

TEASERS:

 

6 Point Teaser (4 Teams)

Pays 3 to 1

Eagles(Philadelphia) +7.5

Under 45.5

Saints(NewOrleans) +3.5

MIN/JAC Over 34.5

 

7 Point Teaser (8 Teams)

Pays 10 to 1

Cowboys(Dallas) -3

Bears(Chicago) -0.5

Chiefs(KansasCity) +10

Lions(Detroit) +14.5

NYG/ARI Over 41.5

GBP/NOS Over 44.5

Dolphins(Miami) +7

Seahawks(Seattle) +10

 

6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Pays 8 to 5

Panthers(Carolina) +7.5

Broncos(Denver) -2.5

Browns(Cleveland) +3.5

 

6 Point Teaser (4 Teams)

Pays 3 to 1

Steelers(Pittsburgh) -5

PIT/CIN Over 28.5

Colts(Indianapolis) +8.5

Jets(NewYork) +11

 

I'll probably add a few more combinations to this, as I see the lines change slightly (since last night), but overall, these are the teaser plays I like for today.

 

Good luck, everyone.

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Late adds:

 

Titans -5.5 The Titans will force Favre to throw and I smell a Brett meltdown. RIDE THE STREAK!!!

 

Bears/Rams over 43 Not really a total player but I like this one. Here are two teams that got blown away last week. Neither defense is effective. No reason to think this won't go over.

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one more to add but strictly a homer play because it is the only TV morning game we are getting and i need the action

 

 

Pick: +9.5 San Francisco 49ers (Pending)

Score: San Francisco 49ers

Dallas Cowboys

11/23/2008 12:00 PM

¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯

Pick: Over 45.5 (Pending)

Score: San Francisco 49ers

Dallas Cowboys

11/23/2008 12:00 PM

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Late adds:

 

Titans -5.5 The Titans will force Favre to throw and I smell a Brett meltdown. RIDE THE STREAK!!!

 

Bears/Rams over 43 Not really a total player but I like this one. Here are two teams that got blown away last week. Neither defense is effective. No reason to think this won't go over.

 

 

werd already on both

 

NE -1.5

Bal -2

Tenn -5.5

Chi/STL 44 O

Buf -3

 

good luck

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Added some last minute 3-team teasers for the early games:

 

6 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Pays 9 to 5

Jets(NewYork) +11.5

Dolphins(Miami) +8

Vikings(Minnesota) +8.5

 

6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Pays 8 to 5

Buccaneers(TampaBay) -1.5

Ravens(Baltimore) +4.5

Browns(Cleveland) +3.5

 

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Pays 7 to 5

Cowboys(Dallas) -2.5

Bears(Chicago) 0

Chiefs(KansasCity) +10

 

Hopefully, I can hit on one or more of these... I basically need to hit on two of my seven teasers to break even... Anything above that is a positive.

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Late teasers:

 

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Pays 7 to 5

GBP/NOS Over 44.5

Seahawks(Seattle) +10

WAS/SEA Over 33

 

6 Point Teaser (4 Teams)

Pays 3 to 1

Colts(Indianapolis) +9

NYG/ARI Over 42.5

Packers(GreenBay) +7.5

Broncos(Denver) -2.5

 

6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Pays 8 to 5

IND/SD Over 42.5

Giants(NewYork) +3.5

Panthers(Carolina) +7.5

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Late teasers:

 

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Pays 7 to 5

GBP/NOS Over 44.5

Seahawks(Seattle) +10

WAS/SEA Over 33

 

6 Point Teaser (4 Teams)

Pays 3 to 1

Colts(Indianapolis) +9

NYG/ARI Over 42.5

Packers(GreenBay) +7.5

Broncos(Denver) -2.5

 

6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Pays 8 to 5

IND/SD Over 42.5

Giants(NewYork) +3.5

Panthers(Carolina) +7.5

 

 

:wacko: You really love teasers

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Been doing very well on parlays/teasers the past four weeks. I've stayed away from college, and gone NFL exclusively, and I'm up about 12 units this month. Teams I like to cover straight up this week:

 

BAL -1.5 I keep thinking the Eagles are going to get out of their funk every week, and every week they disappoint. Well, this isn't the week to get out of an offensive slump... I see the Baltimore defense causing trouble all game long for McNabb and company. Ravens win a close, low-scoring game... somewhere around the 17-13 range.

 

NYJ + 5.5 I think the Titans win again this week, but only by a FG. Wouldn't be totally surprised if the Jets won, but I think Tennessee will do just enough... maybe a Favre INT for TD is the deciding score.

 

Other games I like, but not quite enough to play straight wagers:

 

SF + 9.5 Dallas hasn't blown anyone out in several weeks. They're a different team the past month plus, and I think they'll allow the Niners to stay in this game until the 4th quarter. Dallas 27 SF 20

 

MIA +1.5 Miami totally dominated the Pats at Foxboro two months ago... I think the line is about right, but the Dolphins are the team that should be favored by a point or two, not the Pats. It won't be the Wildcat that does the Pats in this time, but rather the Dolphins defense. I look for a couple of key turnovers by NE to cost them the game, and possibly ruin their playoffs chances.

Glad I stuck to just the two straight wagers... The other two looked like they might be right on for a while, but both SF and MIA faltered after good starts.

 

:wacko: You really love teasers

Yes, I do... I'm a sucker for them, I guess. Not doing so hot today, though. I needed Cleveland, Miami, and KC to keep their games close, and it didn't happen for any of them. Still might turn out OK for the week, depending on how the late games go, particularly the Colts (need them to win or lose by a FG or less).

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