Steeltown Dre Posted December 3, 2008 Share Posted December 3, 2008 Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are. I can't believe that we are already to December and the last month of the regular season until SEPTEMBER 2009! I hope you guys have been able to do well thus far in the season. Only 4 more weeks with a full slate of 16 games a week. Let's capitalize while we can, because In exactly 1 month we have the WC with only 4 games, and then the Div w/ only 4 games, and then the CC w/ only 2 games before the SB game on Feb 1, 2009. That's spreading 11 postseason games out over 5 weeks, vs. getting 64 games the next 4 weeks... Best of luck this week and hope you are able to spot some value out there. Motivational handicapping becomes VERY key in December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE SIX KINGS Posted December 4, 2008 Share Posted December 4, 2008 Thursday games Rutgers -10.5 under 42 Oak. @ SD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 4, 2008 Share Posted December 4, 2008 on OAK tonight. SD might be the most over-rated team in the NFL over the last several years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 4, 2008 Share Posted December 4, 2008 We have an exciting Thrusday night game between two teams that are both the football equivalent of Plaxico Burress holding a loaded weapon. This is an interesting game from a gaming perspective though. The Chargers have owned the Raiders vs the spread, but can anybody feel comfortable dropping 9 + points against a team that is lucky to beat anybody on any given....Thursday? This is a tough one. I watched more than usual of the Raiders game last week, and I have to say that JaMarcus Russell looked UNBELIEVABLY horrible. Zinging passes 10 feet over his receivers heads, yet putting passes right in defenders numbers. Fortunately he has so little touch on his passes, they are just as hard to intercept as they are to catch for his receivers. The guy just looks lost out there. The Raiders looked pretty decent when they ran the ball, but when they are passing it is like a horror movie. There are long term trends that favor the Chargers in this game, and little to grasp onto in favor of the Raiders. But the Chargers have only covered the spread 3 times this year. week 4 @Oak - The Chargers covered the 7 point spread ONLY because of a very unlikely last minute 20+ yard Tomlinson touchdown run that the Raiders basically laid down for. week 6 NE - 30-10 This was the only victory they had by more than 10 points. week 11 @Pitts - This is the one that the replay officials botched at the end of the game. Reality - SD did not cover this spread either. The Raiders are 4-2 ATS on the road this season. Bottom line, despite the public perception that the Chargers are somehow far better than the Raiders, they are not. This is a ridiculously high number for a team that has only covered 3 times this year, and only once in convincing fashion. Give me the points. And hand me an antacid. Raiders +9.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 4, 2008 Share Posted December 4, 2008 Since about 4-5 weeks into hockey season I started implimenting a system I put into play last year that I had some nice success with. I have to wait 5 weeks into the season to see scoring trends before the method kicks in. The system seems to be paying off pretty nicely. As long as I dont try and pick too many games and narrow down to 1-3 max ( usually 1 or 2) I have done well. I am going to start posting some official hockey plays. Hopefully I stay somewhat hot and you guys can tail a little. If I am mediocre or start tanking Jump off and I will stop posting them. I rarely make plays on the games themselves. My analysis is focused on team over unders. I am almost always on the overs too. I basically look for the overs unless an under is screaming at me. Usually if I like a pick the team has to score more than 2.5 - 3 goals. My methods play for the push. What I mean by that is if I say I like a team that has to score over 3 I feel that at the very least they should nail 3 and it wont cost you. 4 is not an easy number but I dont mind pushes. If I suggest a play that is over 2.5 then we are obviously going for the win. My lines are based on a website that is generated by my local book so I am not sure what you guys are going to find on the legit places like Bodog etc. I see a few things I like tonight. I am just waiting for the team totals to get posted at my site and I will make my first official plays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 4, 2008 Share Posted December 4, 2008 Since about 4-5 weeks into hockey season I started implimenting a system I put into play last year that I had some nice success with. I have to wait 5 weeks into the season to see scoring trends before the method kicks in. The system seems to be paying off pretty nicely. As long as I dont try and pick too many games and narrow down to 1-3 max ( usually 1 or 2) I have done well. I am going to start posting some official hockey plays. Hopefully I stay somewhat hot and you guys can tail a little. If I am mediocre or start tanking Jump off and I will stop posting them. I rarely make plays on the games themselves. My analysis is focused on team over unders. I am almost always on the overs too. I basically look for the overs unless an under is screaming at me. Usually if I like a pick the team has to score more than 2.5 - 3 goals. My methods play for the push. What I mean by that is if I say I like a team that has to score over 3 I feel that at the very least they should nail 3 and it wont cost you. 4 is not an easy number but I dont mind pushes. If I suggest a play that is over 2.5 then we are obviously going for the win. My lines are based on a website that is generated by my local book so I am not sure what you guys are going to find on the legit places like Bodog etc. I see a few things I like tonight. I am just waiting for the team totals to get posted at my site and I will make my first official plays. I like The Capitols over 3 vs the Isles. Although the Caps have some injuries they should be able to score vs the Isles. The Isles let up a fair amount of goals especially in in the 3rd period. I also like the Bruins over 2.5 against the lightning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Jay Posted December 4, 2008 Share Posted December 4, 2008 First time posting on this thread. Alot of good insight. I'm going with Oak +9.5 Oak/SD under 42 Thinkin about Oak straight up. I think SD is mailing it in. Louisville/Rutgers over 52 Thanks and Good Luck!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted December 4, 2008 Share Posted December 4, 2008 Taking the Raiders + 9.5 not touching the over / under Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 I like The Capitols over 3 vs the Isles. Although the Caps have some injuries they should be able to score vs the Isles. The Isles let up a fair amount of goals especially in in the 3rd period. I also like the Bruins over 2.5 against the lightning 2-0 for the night. Off to a good start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinatieri Is God Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 I like The Capitols over 3 vs the Isles. Although the Caps have some injuries they should be able to score vs the Isles. The Isles let up a fair amount of goals especially in in the 3rd period. I also like the Bruins over 2.5 against the lightning The B's scored the empty netter with 0:0.5 seconds left!! Lucky or good? Also, in fairness, I think you have to list your odds if you are going to give out these plays. Bruins over 2.5 was -155 at my sportsbook so if it had lost it would really be a loss and a half. Thanks for the plays. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 The B's scored the empty netter with 0:0.5 seconds left!! Lucky or good? Also, in fairness, I think you have to list your odds if you are going to give out these plays. Bruins over 2.5 was -155 at my sportsbook so if it had lost it would really be a loss and a half. Thanks for the plays. Good luck. The empty netter is always a factor with the team over under plays thats why I rarely pick an under. If a team is up 2-1 in the 3rd and the team with 2 is the team I bet to go over 2.5 or 3 and the game is winding down I still hold out a fair amount of hope for the empty netter. It is no doubt luckier than good but not that much different than a backdoor cover in football in garbage minutes. I have won a fair amount of these plays on the empty netter but I dont rely on it as a basis for my plays. Fair point on the odds. I will list them. Where you on these last night ? At first glance tonight I wasnt crazy about anything but i will look when the lines are posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinatieri Is God Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 I was only on the B's.....didn't look very good early. They were dominated in the first period but Tim Thomas kept them in it. Loved the empty net at the end. I was screaming to "hurry up and shoot it". Kessel took his time, laid the puck down, and almost didn't get it in time. Rather be lucky than good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 I was only on the B's.....didn't look very good early. They were dominated in the first period but Tim Thomas kept them in it. Loved the empty net at the end. I was screaming to "hurry up and shoot it". Kessel took his time, laid the puck down, and almost didn't get it in time. Rather be lucky than good. Cool. Im not too big on the board tonight but like I said I may see something when the lines are posted. Does your book give you a total for all the combined games on the night ? Sometimes if I am not crazy about the individual board I look at that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinatieri Is God Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 Does your book give you a total for all the combined games on the night ? Sometimes if I am not crazy about the individual board I look at that The Grand Salami!! I only play it on nights I am out boozing so I can keep up with the scores. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 The Grand Salami!! I only play it on nights I am out boozing so I can keep up with the scores. Same here. If I dont like the board I put a small recreational one on the grand salami Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE SIX KINGS Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 Thursday games Rutgers -10.5 under 42 Oak. @ SD Friday Game Ball St -15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Jay Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 Friday Game Ball St -15 Ball St up to -16.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 Some interesting lines for next week (bolded a few that I have my eye on early). In other words, given my "success" this week, go with the opposite. 12/04/08 203 Raiders(Oakland) OFF +10 Over 43.5 Matchup Trend Sheet 20:20 ET 204 Chargers(SanDiego) OFF -10 Under 43.5 12/07/08 235 Bengals(Cincinnati) OFF +13.5 Over 42.5 Matchup Trend Sheet 13:05 ET 236 Colts(Indianapolis) OFF -13.5 Under 42.5 12/07/08 241 Browns(Cleveland) OFF +13.5 Over 37.5 Matchup Trend Sheet 13:05 ET 242 Titans(Tennessee) OFF -13.5 Under 37.5 12/07/08 251 Jets(NewYork) OFF -4 Over 44.5 Matchup Trend Sheet 16:10 ET 252 49ers(SanFrancisco) OFF +4 Under 44.5 12/07/08 253 Dolphins(Miami)(N) OFF +1 Over 42.5 Matchup Trend Sheet 16:10 ET 254 Bills(Buffalo)(N) OFF -1 Under 42.5 Forgot to factor in the fact that the Raiders only show up about once every four weeks. Still like the others, as well as a couple more. My plays in order of confidence: 1) Tennessee -13.5 (got this early in the week) - Just don't see any way that this isn't a blowout, with Dorsey running the offense for the Browns. The only thing that may keep this close is the Browns' defense, but I still think it's a two-touchdown game regardless... 21-3 or 24-6 would be best-case scenario for Cleveland. 2) Baltimore -5 - Redskins lately are looking more like the team that had trouble converting a first down against NYG week 1 than the team that dismantled NOS/ARI/DAL/NYG in four straight weeks. With Portis banged up, I see something closer to the 23-6 Pittsburgh loss or the 23-7 Giants loss last week. 3) MIA/BUF Under 42 - I think this should be low-scoring either way. Edwards appears to be out, but the Bills defense will try to keep it close. No way does a Losman-led offense put up more than 20 points against Miami. I'm leaning towards Miami in a defensive battle, 20-13. 4) CIN/IND Under 42 - The Colts haven't been able to blow out anyone this year. Week after week, the Bengals are able to stay in games in which they're double-digit underdogs. The Colts may cover the two TD's, but I think this game is under 42 total, whether it's close or not. The Colts defense is finally starting to play well, and the Bengals D has been underrated all year. 5) Pittsburgh -2.5 (was there for a short time mid-week, before it went back to -3) - Both teams coming off big wins, but Dallas is beat up, and Pittsburgh has the better defense. A big factor will be whether Demarcus Ware is healthy or not, as he could wreak havoc on Big Ben, which could be an equalizer to Pitt slowing down the Dallas offense. Still, I like the Steelers to cover 2.5 or even the 3.0 that it is today. 6) SF +4 - I was higher on this one earlier in the week. I'm less excited about it now only because I'm thinking the Niners' win last week had less to do with them turning their season around than it did the Bills going into a downward spiral. I still think four points is a lot for the Jets to be giving, considering what happened to them at home last week, but I'm not quite as sold as I was on Monday. Still, if I had to choose, I think the Niners cover and have a decent shot at winning straight up. 7) MIA (0) - See #3 and #6 above. Buffalo has begun a downward spiral which will leave them two games or more behind the rest of the division, when everything is said and done. Miami wins. 8) ATL/NOS Over 51 - The Saints stick with their trend of passing even more with Deuce out. They are able to cover this number more often than not, and I don't think they'll be able to stop Atlanta from keeping it close. Both teams score 24-30 points, minimum. Might as well make it an even "top ten" picks.... 9) Chicago - 6.5 - Last week told me two things... I keep waiting for the Jags to turn things around and play up to their potential. But, it's just not going to happen. They're simply not very good. The second thing is that MN is in sole possession of first place. I just can't see them having a two-game lead (assuming they keep the Lions' streak alive). Bears win, and they do so by at least a TD. 10) STL/ARI Over 48 - The Rams are a different team with Jackson healthy. Don't know if it will be a close game necessarily, but I think Arizona will be in the 30's and St. Louis should score 17-24 points as well. As far as Saturday, I'm really tempted to go with Alabama. If it reaches 10.5, I will probably take my chances with the Tide ... they've exceeded expectations in every big game so far this year, why not one more? I already have this going for a 7-pt teaser: ALA +17 ALA/FLA Over 58.5 BC/VT Over 32 MU/OU Over 72 OU -10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Jay Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 Goin with Ball St. -16.5 and over 63.5 Good Luck!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 Saturday parlay/teaser Alabama +10 Oklahoma -16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 Tonight I am on the Washington Capitols team total over 3 (-115) vs Toronto and the San Jose Sharks team total over 3 (-125) vs Edmonton any good college plays today ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 If I hit my hockey and whatever college I end up putting in I may put it all on De La Hoya tonigh (-185) Manny is a stud but IMO a good naturally bigger man beats a good little man when they square off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE SIX KINGS Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 Friday Game Ball St -15 Saturday Early Games Navy -13 Cal -34 under 41.5 Va. Tech vs. B.C. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 If I hit my hockey and whatever college I end up putting in I may put it all on De La Hoya tonigh (-185) I'm no fight doctor, but I just don't get that bet. I would think +150 the other way would be the way to go. Laying -185 on a guy that old is too rich for my blood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE SIX KINGS Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 Saturday Early Games Navy -13 Cal -34 under 41.5 Va. Tech vs. B.C. Saturday late games Oklahoma -17 Arizona -11 Hawaii +7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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