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2008 Week 14 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Saturday Early Games

 

Navy -13

Cal -34

under 41.5 Va. Tech vs. B.C.

 

 

Saturday late games

 

Oklahoma -17

Arizona -11

Hawaii +7

 

 

:wacko:

 

0-2 in hockey and De La Hoya got his tits lit. Thank God I tailed your college or I would be in worse trouble. I need a good day in the nfl

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Wow, I wish I would have bet that fight last night. I am always on the right side when I don't make the bet. :wacko: Here is the card today:

 

Tenn -14 large

 

Atl ML

 

Parlay/teaser

 

GB-6.5

NE-7

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also you may want start to think about 1st half lines this time of the year for teams that can lock up a playoff births.

this is a wager a lot of players don't think of, if a team gets up big in the first half they can coast the second half of the game and give up garbage points while resting their studs on offense the second half.

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anyone hitting Ravens tonight? I'm on the fence and will probably sit them out. Could've gotten them at -6 this am and now it's -7

Yes.

 

BAL -6.5

 

Winning that would complete a very good day.

 

I also need CAR/TBB to go over 31.5 to complete a 5-team teaser.

 

This week was pretty much the exact opposite of last week... Just about every game went the way I thought it would, relatively speaking. Lots of wins... straight wagers, teasers, and parlays. :wacko:

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Yes.

 

BAL -6.5

 

Winning that would complete a very good day.

 

I also need CAR/TBB to go over 31.5 to complete a 5-team teaser.

 

This week was pretty much the exact opposite of last week... Just about every game went the way I thought it would, relatively speaking. Lots of wins... straight wagers, teasers, and parlays. :D

 

 

:wacko: Nice. I had an awful Saturday in Hockey and Boxing that was tough to receover from. I chipped away a little yesterday. the Caps game on Saturday was a dagger.

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Gave back a little Sunday

 

5 - 1 Sat.

3 - 4 Sun.

 

 

Your college plays were awesome saturday. Kept me out of deep trouble. Thanks. Dre had a nice Sunday as well. If I just listened to you guys and stopped trying my own stuff I would be fine :wacko:

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Your college plays were awesome saturday. Kept me out of deep trouble. Thanks. Dre had a nice Sunday as well. If I just listened to you guys and stopped trying my own stuff I would be fine :wacko:

 

Still whomp, that's a solid weekend overall. Edit - sorry, I thought your record was 6 kings (8-5) above. Are you playing hockey heavier than NFL?

 

I don't know what the hell it is w/ my plays, a lot of people say that you drop off once you start charging. I seem to have gone the opposite direction and have gotten better. I couldn't believe Week 13, and Week 14 was solid as well.

 

My advice heading into the last 3 weeks of the season is to be smart about week 15, be conservative w/ week 16 and be extra cautious w/ week 17. Whether you reduce units or reduce number of wagers, the games the last 2 weeks of the season tend to be more "wildcard" like than any other weeks. Some teams have checked out, others who are "out" are still fighting for their HC or their own jobs. Some who you think have "quit" are able to muster an extra effort. Then you have teams that have clinched resting players for some or all of the game... it gets messy. Probably not as much Week 15, but definitely the last 2 weeks. So whether you've had a good or tough season, don't force things the last couple of weeks. Save some for the postseason. I'm sure you'll hear more of the same from me later.

 

But I hope you all had a solid week this week.

Edited by Steeltown Dre
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Still whomp, that's a solid weekend overall. Edit - sorry, I thought your record was 6 kings (8-5) above. Are you playing hockey heavier than NFL?

 

I don't know what the hell it is w/ my plays, a lot of people say that you drop off once you start charging. I seem to have gone the opposite direction and have gotten better. I couldn't believe Week 13, and Week 14 was solid as well.

 

My advice heading into the last 3 weeks of the season is to be smart about week 15, be conservative w/ week 16 and be extra cautious w/ week 17. Whether you reduce units or reduce number of wagers, the games the last 2 weeks of the season tend to be more "wildcard" like than any other weeks. Some teams have checked out, others who are "out" are still fighting for their HC or their own jobs. Some who you think have "quit" are able to muster an extra effort. Then you have teams that have clinched resting players for some or all of the game... it gets messy. Probably not as much Week 15, but definitely the last 2 weeks. So whether you've had a good or tough season, don't force things the last couple of weeks. Save some for the postseason. I'm sure you'll hear more of the same from me later.

 

But I hope you all had a solid week this week.

 

 

Hockey kind of dictates how heavy I have been going in the nfl. I have done well in hockey and built up decent bank going into the weekend then I play with that on saturdays and sundays. Last week on Satuday I really loved the Caps over 3 and went for the kill. When that fell short it wiped out my whole weeks bank and thensome. I bounced back slightly sunday and ended up still playing with their money so I am still surviving. Im gonna scale back some hockey. I pounded your Ravens play last night. As a diehard Cowboys fan I couldnt take the Steelers. I know its not a practical way of betting but I just cant do it against my Boys

Edited by whomper
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Well, I had a wild weekend. Tennessee continues to keep my boat afloat. Then lost some of that on my parlay/teaser. Then went huge on Baltimore last night.

 

I have a 4 team parlay working off last nights game - I need TB+3 and over 38 to win that one. May be making a separate play on TB here, or may wait until halftime to see if any nice hedge opportunities open up. I figure this game to be a field goal game so I like the team getting the 3.

 

I like Jake Delhomme, but betting against him in a big spot like this is probably the best policy. I am less impressed with the Panthers big come from behind win at Green Bay last week since I saw the Texans jack the Pack up this week. I figure most people are on the Panthers for this game so I will side up with the books for this one.

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Forgot to factor in the fact that the Raiders only show up about once every four weeks. :D Still like the others, as well as a couple more. My plays in order of confidence:

 

1) Tennessee -13.5 (got this early in the week) - Just don't see any way that this isn't a blowout, with Dorsey running the offense for the Browns. The only thing that may keep this close is the Browns' defense, but I still think it's a two-touchdown game regardless... 21-3 or 24-6 would be best-case scenario for Cleveland.

 

2) Baltimore -5 - Redskins lately are looking more like the team that had trouble converting a first down against NYG week 1 than the team that dismantled NOS/ARI/DAL/NYG in four straight weeks. With Portis banged up, I see something closer to the 23-6 Pittsburgh loss or the 23-7 Giants loss last week.

 

3) MIA/BUF Under 42 - I think this should be low-scoring either way. Edwards appears to be out, but the Bills defense will try to keep it close. No way does a Losman-led offense put up more than 20 points against Miami. I'm leaning towards Miami in a defensive battle, 20-13.

 

4) CIN/IND Under 42 - The Colts haven't been able to blow out anyone this year. Week after week, the Bengals are able to stay in games in which they're double-digit underdogs. The Colts may cover the two TD's, but I think this game is under 42 total, whether it's close or not. The Colts defense is finally starting to play well, and the Bengals D has been underrated all year.

 

5) Pittsburgh -2.5 (was there for a short time mid-week, before it went back to -3) - Both teams coming off big wins, but Dallas is beat up, and Pittsburgh has the better defense. A big factor will be whether Demarcus Ware is healthy or not, as he could wreak havoc on Big Ben, which could be an equalizer to Pitt slowing down the Dallas offense. Still, I like the Steelers to cover 2.5 or even the 3.0 that it is today.

 

6) SF +4 - I was higher on this one earlier in the week. I'm less excited about it now only because I'm thinking the Niners' win last week had less to do with them turning their season around than it did the Bills going into a downward spiral. I still think four points is a lot for the Jets to be giving, considering what happened to them at home last week, but I'm not quite as sold as I was on Monday. Still, if I had to choose, I think the Niners cover and have a decent shot at winning straight up.

 

7) MIA (0) - See #3 and #6 above. Buffalo has begun a downward spiral which will leave them two games or more behind the rest of the division, when everything is said and done. Miami wins.

 

8) ATL/NOS Over 51 - The Saints stick with their trend of passing even more with Deuce out. They are able to cover this number more often than not, and I don't think they'll be able to stop Atlanta from keeping it close. Both teams score 24-30 points, minimum.

 

Might as well make it an even "top ten" picks....

 

9) Chicago - 6.5 - Last week told me two things... I keep waiting for the Jags to turn things around and play up to their potential. But, it's just not going to happen. They're simply not very good. The second thing is that MN is in sole possession of first place. I just can't see them having a two-game lead (assuming they keep the Lions' streak alive). Bears win, and they do so by at least a TD.

 

10) STL/ARI Over 48 - The Rams are a different team with Jackson healthy. Don't know if it will be a close game necessarily, but I think Arizona will be in the 30's and St. Louis should score 17-24 points as well.

 

As far as Saturday, I'm really tempted to go with Alabama. If it reaches 10.5, I will probably take my chances with the Tide ... they've exceeded expectations in every big game so far this year, why not one more? I already have this going for a 7-pt teaser:

 

ALA +17

ALA/FLA Over 58.5

BC/VT Over 32

MU/OU Over 72

OU -10

Like I said, great week... probably my best yet.

 

Thursday

- Lost parlay on Oakland +10 and the Over.

 

Saturday

-Lost straight wager on Alabama +10

-Lost 6-team parlay because Tulsa lost (I had five money line favorites and UCLA to cover).

-Actually won the teaser above... I re-read my original post, and had to go back and double-check, thinking that I could have sworn I took the UNDER 58.5 in ALA/FLA. Sure enough, I was right (relieved that I mis-posted here and didn't actually click the wrong box when placing the wager). :wacko: The teaser made up for the other two losses.

 

Sunday

- Lost a parlay due to MN not covering the -10

- Lost another parlay due to the NYG not winning

- Went 1/2 on teasers

- Have a third teaser pending... 4/5 so far and I need TBB/CAR to be over 31.5 to complete the win.

- 9/10 on straight wagers yesterday. Had STL scored a late garbage TD on their last drive, I actually would have gone 10/10.

 

Needless to say, the straight wagers I won made up for the lost teasers/parlays. If the game tonight goes over, the teaser win will just be more icing on the cake. Wish I could say this has happened before, but I've never had a day like yesterday, where pretty much every game went like I thought it would. The only exceptions to that:

 

- Like I mentioned above, I had NYG winning and MIN covering the -10 in parlays, and the STL/ARI over by itself.

 

- Picked NYJ to win in my pick'em contest, although I played the SF +4.

 

- Houston winning... One of the few games I didn't make a play for either way, but picked GBP to win.

 

I have a feeling the next three weeks are going to be nothing like this week was... Have to play close attention to the playoff race and which teams are still in the thick of things, but yet still have something to play for (home field, etc.). As of right now, I'm staying away tonight... To close to call, other than the pending over 31.5, which I think should be very attainable.

 

Good luck!

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Upcoming games...

 

BCS:

 

01/01/09 251 PennSt

USC OFF -10 Under 45

 

01/01/09 253 VirginiaTech

Cincinnati OFF -1.5 Under 41

 

01/02/09 259 Utah

Alabama OFF -10 Under 44.5

 

01/05/09 263 OhioSt

Texas OFF -10 Under 53.5

 

01/08/09 267 Florida

Oklahoma OFF +3 Under 71.5

 

NFL (Week 15) Not seeing nearly as much that I like as last week...

 

12/11/08 301 Saints(NewOrleans)

OFF +3 Over 44

Matchup Trend Sheet

20:20 ET 302 Bears(Chicago)

OFF -3 Under 44

 

12/14/08 303 Packers(GreenBay)

OFF -1.5 Over 45

Matchup Trend Sheet

13:05 ET 304 Jaguars(Jacksonville)

OFF +1.5 Under 45

 

12/14/08 307 Redskins(Washington)

OFF -6.5 Over 35.5

Matchup Trend Sheet

13:05 ET 308 Bengals(Cincinnati)

OFF +6.5 Under 35.5

 

12/14/08 317 Titans(Tennessee)

OFF -3 (-115) Over 44

Matchup Trend Sheet

13:05 ET 318 Texans(Houston)

OFF +3 (-105) Under 44

 

12/14/08 319 Steelers(Pittsburgh)

OFF +1.5 Over 33

Matchup Trend Sheet

16:20 ET 320 Ravens(Baltimore)

OFF -1.5 Under 33

 

12/14/08 323 Chargers(SanDiego)

OFF -5 Over 46

Matchup Trend Sheet

13:05 ET 324 Chiefs(KansasCity)

OFF +5 Under 46

 

12/14/08 327 Patriots(NewEngland)

OFF -7 Over 40

Matchup Trend Sheet

16:20 ET 328 Raiders(Oakland)

OFF +7 Under 40

 

12/15/08 331 Browns(Cleveland)

OFF +14 Over 37.5

Matchup Trend Sheet

20:40 ET 332 Eagles(Philadelphia)

OFF -14 Under 37.5

 

Good luck!

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