Steeltown Dre Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are. I hope you guys have had a good season thus far. The number of "relevant" games will drop off a lot by the end of this week, though at least the parody is making for some interesting playoff scenarios and motivational factors. Now is also the time of year when we have some serious "division revenge" angles which can be good or bad, depending on the teams and the lines and the records and prior result. A couple of the more marquee "revenge division" games include: Dal/NYG Pit/Bal Atl/TB Teams fighting for playoff position against non-division competition: Was/Cin NE/Oak Den/Car Min/Ari Cle/Phi SF/Mia Chi/NO Here is a pretty good playoff scenario listing as well as remaining games and teams that are on the edge. http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/8854520...son-ended-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 here are the games i'm on this week Saints +3 Green Bay -1 Tampa Bay +3 Pit / Balt over 34 Jets / Buf over 40.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 here are the games i'm on this weekPit / Balt over 34 Really? I guess this one looked like a defensive battle to me. Hmmm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 My early reaction to the Saints/Bears line was Saints and over. But considering the weather may play a factor, I'm not so sure about either of those plays. I mean, that Bears defense can be seriously shredded by Brees, but will he be able to do that if it is the ice-bowl? Seems like the Saints usually gag in these spots, so despite the fact that I think the Saints right now at this moment in time are better than the Bears, I am having a hard time pulling the trigger on them here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavinRJohnson Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 I also like the Saints +3, but I too can't pull the trigger. Maybe tomorrow. The line I really can't figure out is the Giants +3 @ DAL. Looks like the wrong team is favored. Trap? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 Really? I guess this one looked like a defensive battle to me. Hmmm. defensive enough for (2) two Def TD's ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Leaning towards the over (45) and CHI -3 tomorrow night. - These two teams have covered the over in each of the last two matchups. - Chicago has won straight up AND against the spread in the last two matchups. - Chicago has given up (and scored) a lot of points at home this year... 51 vs TBB, 44 vs. PHI, 89 vs MIN, and 50 vs DET. They only combined to score 35 and 33 versus TEN and JAC, respectively, but the NOS are not TEN or JAC. They have a better offense and a worse defense than both of those teams. - The Saints are 1-5 on the road this year. - In those six road games, they have scored an average of 50.5 points (combined). The only two road games in which they did not score 50 combined points was @ CAR (30-7) and @ TBB (23-20). I think they can score more against the Bears than they did against either of those teams. Not sure yet, I may parlay Chicago (moneyline) and buy the Over down to 43.5, which covers both a 24-20 or 27-17 finish. It doesn't cover a 23-20 finish, but this game will be more about TD's than FG's, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Leaning towards the over (45) and CHI -3 tomorrow night. - These two teams have covered the over in each of the last two matchups. - Chicago has won straight up AND against the spread in the last two matchups. - Chicago has given up (and scored) a lot of points at home this year... 51 vs TBB, 44 vs. PHI, 89 vs MIN, and 50 vs DET. They only combined to score 35 and 33 versus TEN and JAC, respectively, but the NOS are not TEN or JAC. They have a better offense and a worse defense than both of those teams. - The Saints are 1-5 on the road this year. - In those six road games, they have scored an average of 50.5 points (combined). The only two road games in which they did not score 50 combined points was @ CAR (30-7) and @ TBB (23-20). I think they can score more against the Bears than they did against either of those teams. Not sure yet, I may parlay Chicago (moneyline) and buy the Over down to 43.5, which covers both a 24-20 or 27-17 finish. It doesn't cover a 23-20 finish, but this game will be more about TD's than FG's, IMO. Let me rephrase that... I parlayed the Chicago money line and the over, and put a separate wager on the bought down over (43.5). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 12, 2008 Share Posted December 12, 2008 Let me rephrase that... I parlayed the Chicago money line and the over, and put a separate wager on the bought down over (43.5). Money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 12, 2008 Share Posted December 12, 2008 Im starting to like Denver +7.5 and although its somewhat high over 48 in that game seems doable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 12, 2008 Share Posted December 12, 2008 Just curious. Are most of you guys going through legit places like Bodog etc ? Anyone still using the local book like me ? Its so different now days then back in the day. I remeber 15 years ago being at the sports bar and everyone was online at the pay phones by 3:40 to try and get their 4 oclock games in. Now the devil is at your finger tips Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 13, 2008 Author Share Posted December 13, 2008 Just curious. Are most of you guys going through legit places like Bodog etc ? Anyone still using the local book like me ? Its so different now days then back in the day. I remeber 15 years ago being at the sports bar and everyone was online at the pay phones by 3:40 to try and get their 4 oclock games in. Now the devil is at your finger tips Yep Whomper, its come a long way. Many advantages to having several online outs as well as a local. Particularly a local who shades lines based on his location/clientele tendencies . Pick your spots and take advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 13, 2008 Share Posted December 13, 2008 I use a "local" guy (I've moved, so he's not actually local to me), but it's the best of both worlds as he's setup with a caribbean outfit that just caters to the local guys with online. He's actually a good friend of mine and in my fantasy league (we are playing each other in the semifinals of my league this week) and went with online service about 3 yrs ago after years of doing it by phone. Agree with Dre though - if you can find some local's and actually build a small network, you can make a killing. One year my uncle (in Boston) and I (in Atlanta at time) played around with some things, especially when southeast and northeast teams matched up - cashed one good size middle in the process I remember well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 13, 2008 Share Posted December 13, 2008 I use a "local" guy (I've moved, so he's not actually local to me), but it's the best of both worlds as he's setup with a caribbean outfit that just caters to the local guys with online. He's actually a good friend of mine and in my fantasy league (we are playing each other in the semifinals of my league this week) and went with online service about 3 yrs ago after years of doing it by phone. Agree with Dre though - if you can find some local's and actually build a small network, you can make a killing. One year my uncle (in Boston) and I (in Atlanta at time) played around with some things, especially when southeast and northeast teams matched up - cashed one good size middle in the process I remember well. Thats the same type of service I use Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 in 30 years of wagering on the NFL i have never played a teaser that all changed this weekend and i may of went a little over board but my local now excepts them ( may also be my last time ) I'm way up so thought i would give a few 6.5 pt. teasers a try. Here is what i got ,,, any thoughts (they are already placed but was curious what you guys thought) KC + 12.5 / Den +15.5 / Ravens + 4 GB + 4.5 / 49ers + 13 / TB + 9.5 (Jets / Bills O 34.5)( Rams/ Hawks U 49) (Ravens / Steelers O 27.5 ) GB + 5 / Colts - 10 / Philly - 7 GB + 5 / Skins / Philly -7.5 Ravens + 4.5/ Skins / GB + 4.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 I'm on the 3's for this week: Ten -3 This Tennessee team reminds me a lot of that Baltimore team that won the Superbowl. All through their run they were under-rated including ATS. Much like this Titans team they were often 3 point favorites and through the playoffs 3 point dogs a couple of times if I remember correctly. But all they did was cover. I rode them like a pony. Feels like the same thing happening here. NYG +3 Considering the soap opera in Dallas I have done a 180 on this game. After the Cowboys gallant effort in Pittsburgh, I was ready to hand them this one, but not so much now. Romo has enough to think about trying to end his December curse without worrying about TO getting his panties in a bunch. It is just hard for me to imagine that this team can pull it together and win a big game when from the outside it looks like such a clusterflux. Bal -3 Baltimore also looks a lot like that Baltimore team that won the Superbowl. Doing it with defense. I don't see Big Ben putting on the Superman cape in this one. I also like but didn't play Atlanta. Turner and Norwood can do what Williams and Stewart did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 in 30 years of wagering on the NFL i have never played a teaser that all changed this weekend and i may of went a little over board but my local now excepts them ( may also be my last time ) I'm way up so thought i would give a few 6.5 pt. teasers a try. Here is what i got ,,, any thoughts (they are already placed but was curious what you guys thought) KC + 12.5 / Den +15.5 / Ravens + 4 GB + 4.5 / 49ers + 13 / TB + 9.5 (Jets / Bills O 34.5)( Rams/ Hawks U 49) (Ravens / Steelers O 27.5 ) GB + 5 / Colts - 10 / Philly - 7 GB + 5 / Skins / Philly -7.5 Ravens + 4.5/ Skins / GB + 4.5 I actually like them all except the Over/Under one... I think I would have gone the other direction on all three games. The nice thing about teasers is that you probably only need to win about 2 out of 5 (3-teams each) to break even (or be slightly ahead). On a good week (like I had last week), you can make a killing. On a bad week, though, it seems like there is one (or sometimes more) team that screws up every teaser/parlay you play. The key is finding the right mix... Don't necessarily play every game, but on the other hand, "diversify" your bets enough that you don't let one or two teams bust them all single-handedly. It looks like you have a pretty good mix where, even if you're way off on a couple of games, you'll still be able to cash in on a couple of those teasers. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 Not nearly as many attractive games as last week. I'm going to look a little closer before committing to any straight wagers. Here's what I have going for early game teasers: 7 Point Teaser (4 Teams) SF/MIA Under 48 - Two defenses that are playing better than their respective offenses. TBB/ATL Over 37.5 - Atlanta puts up points at home, and Tampa will have to do the same to keep it close. DET/IND Under 52 - Colts D is playing their best, and so is the offense. They may score 40, but Detroit will struggle to get more than 10. WAS/CIN Under 43.5 - The Bengals D will keep this close because the Skins are struggling to score consistently. 6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams) Falcons(Atlanta) +3.5 - I like Atlanta at home... At worst, they lose by a FG. Bengals(Cincinnati) +13 - This many points is a lot in a game in which both teams will struggle to reach 20. Titans(Tennessee) +3.5 - Like Atlanta, I like their chances to win or keep it within a FG. 7 Point Teaser (3 Teams) 49ers(SanFrancisco) +13 - They've improved each of the last two weeks, and I think they can keep this within 10. Colts(Indianapolis) -10 - The way their D is playing, this shouldn't be a problem. Texans(Houston) +10 - I guess you can call this a hedge bet. I don't tease both ways unless I'm confident it's going to be close. Houston is playing very well, and although Tennessee keeps winning, they've cooled off a bit. Best case scenario is I win both ways. 6 Point Teaser (3 Teams) Dolphins(Miami) 0 - Another one that should be close. I think Miami needs this worse, so they end the Niners run through the AFC East. Jets(NewYork) -1.5 - Jets control their own destiny... Bills are in a tailspin. Packers(GreenBay) +3.5 - CHI and MIN handled the Jags, and the Packers aren't any worse than those two, despite the records. Good luck, guys! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 I've also added a parlay on the Dolphins, Jets, and Eagles all to win (money line), which basically pays even money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE SIX KINGS Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 Early Games Green Bay -2 Atlanta -3 Kansas City +5.5 NYJets -7.5 Over 45 Ten @ Hou Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 Atl is -5 at my book. Still a good play ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steelhead Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 Atl is -5 at my book. Still a good play ? they're up to -5.5 at mine. Moving fast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 Atl is -5 at my book. Still a good play ? I went the other way when the line moved....TB +5 in a battle Also on STL +3 Cincy +7 Dog-day afternoon, it seems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 Late games PIT/BAL Over 34 7 Point Teaser (4 Teams) Broncos(Denver) +14.5 Giants(NewYork) +10 Patriots(NewEngland) 0 Cardinals(Arizona) +3 7 Point Teaser (4 Teams Panthers(Carolina) -0.5 DEN/CAR Over 41 Eagles(Philadelphia) -7 Raiders(Oakland) +14 6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams) Cowboys(Dallas) +3.5 NYG/DAL Over 39.5 Ravens(Baltimore) +3.5 6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams) PIT/BAL Over 27.5 Vikings(Minnesota) +10.5 MIN/ARI Over 40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 I took denver team over 19 in the late games . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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