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Disagreement on projections...


cre8tiff
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A lot of projecting comes down to how you see a particular game playing out. Different people see games playing out different ways. Many theories are plausible. Some more likely than others. But when it comes right down to it we are dealing with opinions. And I find it very useful to have several opinions when weighing a decision. I think most of us go into roster decisions with a basic idea of what we want to do. For me, someone has to make a compelling enough argument to get me off my spot. Having 2, or 3, or more opinions only benefits me, because it is likely someone will tell me what I want to hear, thus enabling me to feel good about my decision. Or in some cases, maybe their opinions sway me from making a mistake. Either way I see great benefit to having more grey matter added to the mix rather than less.

 

When it all gets too confusing for you, just ask the little man inside of you. He knows.

 

 

Sometimes. :wacko:

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To be honest, I never understood the start/bench list. I personally would rather see another set of projections just like DMD does but from someone else. Start/Bench only works if they know who u have on your roster. JMHO

 

I of course, read the start bench for comments on why he gives him the rating he does.

 

Couldn't disagree more - I find the basic notion behind the Start/Bench list to make more sense - i.e., separate the players into tiers or strata as to their desirability for the upcoming week. The projections approach I think is flawed, for reasons that DMD hints at in his post above - the awarding of a projected TD can create large swings in a guy's perceived value for the upcoming week. A 6-point swing is substantial for positions like RB or even more so WRs and TEs.

 

Take the Bess example from above - DMD awarded him a projected TD, and his reasoning makes sense. But in doing so, he now has Bess projected as the 7th best WR to own this coming Sunday. Does this mean DMD is suggesting you should bench the likes of Steve Smith or Roddy White for Davone Bess? Am I really supposed to bench Andre Johnson for Harry Douglas? I don't want to put words into DMD's mouth, but I don't think that's what he is advocating.

 

It's all great info and very helpful, and if you understand the process and apply it accordingly then you'll know enough not to make your start/bench decisions just because DMD gave one guy a TD and not the other - I personally find the qualitative written info within the projections to be extremely useful, but the actual numeric projections themselves I think could be more useful if they were instead presented as separating the players into tiers, or even as I've seen other places do by awarding likelihood of TDs (e.g., maybe Andre Johnson gets .3 TDs this weekend, which minimzes the delta between players produced by projecting TDs in whole numbers only), but that might be a ton of extra work.

Edited by Easy n Dirty
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It is a function largely of the way both are approached and what both are saying.

 

Tuvey is saying that he doesn't like the Fins offense this week other than marginally the rushing game. Compared to all other players in those positions, he says that you should probably bench then.

 

I look at the game and determine what projections will come out of it. I like Pennington to have a sub-par game with only 190 passing yards and one score. Not much disagreement with 2V. In the distribution of stats, I have to award them based on what I feel are most likely to occur. The numbers have to go somewhere. I had one passing score to award that could obviously go anywhere but based on recent history of both teams, I see that Bess is slightly more likely to catch it than any other player but how much more can very greatly and I have to award a TD. Plus I do not project the 8 to ten players that often catch a pass and all are available to score. So TDs as a single play event are always of less confidence. By that token, then I am really saying I like him to catch 80 yards and he might have a TD more than the others on his team. Then there is the risk factor on relying on a player that has a short track record like Bess that is easy to throw a "B" on but I have stats to distribute and they need to go somewhere that is more likely to happen than other scenarios. I liked how Pennington used Bess last week in BUF (9-74). But should you start Bess over some other player on your roster? Hard projections - particularly adding in touchdowns - are created as the most likely to happen but there is risk,. confidence level, etc. that are all behind those hard numbers. The SBL is just considering all those factors and saying if he thinks the player is worth playing or not. I honestly do not see the difference I guess others do because the two measures are entirely two different measurements that say two very different things.

 

I could write reams on what I am doing and saying versus what the other report is doing plus there will always be spots where we just do not always agree. The only way that will ever be resolve is if we just merge everything into a single report and I don't think that is what most would want. It takes a huge effort to do those two reports and I absolutely admit we never look at each others stuff.

Now that's just lazy. I want my money back.

 

:wacko:

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...Take the Bess example from above - DMD awarded him a projected TD, and his reasoning makes sense. But in doing so, he now has Bess projected as the 7th best WR to own this coming Sunday. Does this mean DMD is suggesting you should bench the likes of Steve Smith or Roddy White for Davone Bess? Am I really supposed to bench Andre Johnson for Harry Douglas? I don't want to put words into DMD's mouth, but I don't think that's what he is advocating.

...

 

This is exactly correct. This is exactly why I hate hard projecions. This is exactly why I detest "customized cheatsheets" in the summer and why we held off on them for so long - using purely projected numbers to determine rank and order is fraught with problems. You guys are veterans and almost all understand what they do and do not represent, but someone new to FF comes in and doesn't could mess his draft up going with some esoteric scoring system against projections and not understanding the underlying risk, situation and dynamics involved. That is why we have The Huddle official ranks that are independent of scoring system as well.

 

I think if people use both reports as they are intended they can be a lot of help since they offer two perspectives arrived in two different ways that are saying two different things. And it all else fails, just ignore everyone besides me because, well, everyone cannot be me. But they try and even I can appreciate that. I applaud them for everywhere we agree since that means they at least got that much right.

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This is exactly correct. This is exactly why I hate hard projecions. This is exactly why I detest "customized cheatsheets" in the summer and why we held off on them for so long - using purely projected numbers to determine rank and order is fraught with problems. You guys are veterans and almost all understand what they do and do not represent, but someone new to FF comes in and doesn't could mess his draft up going with some esoteric scoring system against projections and not understanding the underlying risk, situation and dynamics involved. That is why we have The Huddle official ranks that are independent of scoring system as well.

 

I think if people use both reports as they are intended they can be a lot of help since they offer two perspectives arrived in two different ways that are saying two different things. And it all else fails, just ignore everyone besides me because, well, everyone cannot be me. But they try and even I can appreciate that. I applaud them for everywhere we agree since that means they at least got that much right.

 

Now see there, that's all the answer I need. :wacko:

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This is exactly correct. This is exactly why I hate hard projecions. This is exactly why I detest "customized cheatsheets" in the summer and why we held off on them for so long - using purely projected numbers to determine rank and order is fraught with problems. You guys are veterans and almost all understand what they do and do not represent, but someone new to FF comes in and doesn't could mess his draft up going with some esoteric scoring system against projections and not understanding the underlying risk, situation and dynamics involved. That is why we have The Huddle official ranks that are independent of scoring system as well.

 

I think if people use both reports as they are intended they can be a lot of help since they offer two perspectives arrived in two different ways that are saying two different things. And it all else fails, just ignore everyone besides me because, well, everyone cannot be me. But they try and even I can appreciate that. I applaud them for everywhere we agree since that means they at least got that much right.

 

I think the best thing about the two perspectives is that both DMD and I try to explain why a guy is a start or bench or why we project him for 100 yards and a touchdown. And we'll apply different logic to similar situations and from time to time reach different results. And you get to choose which logic better suits your own approach.

 

And if that still doesn't break the tie, go with whatever DMD says. He's still Tom Brady to my Matt Cassel.

 

2V

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DMD and thats it

 

DMD tells me Hixon will go off and i start him ...he tells me he wont go off , i wont start him

 

just last night i was hungry and DMD told me to go with Mac and cheese instead of peanut butter and jelly sandwich

 

can you guess what i ate ? i am have been farting kraft singles out all day long today , baby

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just last night i was hungry and DMD told me to go with Mac and cheese instead of peanut butter and jelly sandwich

 

can you guess what i ate ? i am have been farting kraft singles out all day long today , baby

Wouldn't he tell you to go with the Cheez-It burgers? :wacko:

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I think the best thing about the two perspectives is that both DMD and I try to explain why a guy is a start or bench or why we project him for 100 yards and a touchdown. And we'll apply different logic to similar situations and from time to time reach different results. And you get to choose which logic better suits your own approach. EXACTLY :wacko:

 

And if that still doesn't break the tie, go with whatever DMD says. He's still Tom Brady to my Matt Cassel. Brown noser! :D

 

2V

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I'm telling ya. When WW was doing the start/bench, you could count on consistency with DMD. Maybe they had dinner together, or some sort of mind-meld, I dunno. They may differ a little, but basically about the same level of confidence.

 

J2T takes up the start/bench and you can count on at least a half dozen major contradictions with DMD. DMD will predict a dude will go off, J2T will say bench him. And vice-versa.

 

Makes it tough to base picks on theHuddle recommendations. I know diversity of opinion is a good thing, but lately I have been resorting to other sites to pick players where these two so drastically differ.

 

I like the fact there are 2 opinions, that sometimes differ...if they were the same, the Huddle would just release them both on the same day, just

the`same basic wording, different format...now that doesn't make sense 2 me..and wouldn't be helpful either; I prefer player projectons, then back-up my choices w/ SB list....I consider it a "think-tank"

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Davone Bess. Number 7 WR in your hit parade. Stone Cold BENCH in J2T's.

 

Maurice Morris, Number 6 RB, another Bench.

 

Not meaning to pick on JT, cause it goes the other way too, but those are the ones jump out.

 

I've just been noticing that, and thought I would see if anyone else has the same problem...

 

This thread is not about a difference of opinion on players.

 

It is mis-placed agression based on being reduced to needing info on Bess & Morris this late in the season. :wacko:

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