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How come RBs are the first picks in Fantasy drafts?


euphy
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You can find a Warner, Cutler or Rivers late.

 

 

Bingo. Qb Value is still there in the later rounds where as waiting for the later rds with a RB requires more of a sleeper or luck aspect. There are surely examples of people that will say I got such and such rb late but I am talking about a good amount of qbs that are still there late that arent tremendously risky as opposed to a roll the dice rb

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1) No, that's not really standard - that's pretty high scoring for QB's (although would need to see your other scoring to see the true comparison). Does make QB's a bit more valuable than a "standard" scoring league as the spread between them will be exaggerated.

 

2) More importantly, the issue is point differential - meaning that 8 of the top 9 scorers in my league are QB's...but outside of the top 2 they are withing a few pts a game of each other and some were waiver pickups. For the most part, each team in the league (10 teams) has one of the top 12 or so QB's and average within a few pts of each other at QB

 

The top 20 RB on the other hand span over 8 pts a game, and there are some teams with only 1 of those while needing to start 2 or 3 - means can take a 10 pt avg "loss" at a position if you don't have a decent stable.

 

Doesn't mean drafting the top QB overall isn't a good thing, especailly in a year like last year with Brady as he may have a huge advantage, but on avg the QB's will be pretty close and more readily available on waivers than RB.

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fantasy value is determined by scarcity. most leagues have made the decision to start 1 QB, and 2 or even potentially 3 RBs. in a fairly typical league, there are 24 QBs with more than half as many points as the #1 scoring QB. there are 32 RBs with more than half as many points as the #1 RB. so the pool of viable RBs isn't much deeper, and yet they have to fill twice as many starting fantasy roster spots. that's why good RBs are the most valuable commodity in FF.

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fantasy value is determined by scarcity. most leagues have made the decision to start 1 QB, and 2 or even potentially 3 RBs. in a fairly typical league, there are 24 QBs with more than half as many points as the #1 scoring QB. there are 32 RBs with more than half as many points as the #1 RB. so the pool of viable RBs isn't much deeper, and yet they have to fill twice as many starting fantasy roster spots. that's why good RBs are the most valuable commodity in FF.

 

That's it in a simple nutshell.

 

You need to look up the word "value" in the search function and put Big Country in as the member - or put my handle in if you want a less educated explanation of the term.

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That's it in a simple nutshell.

 

You need to look up the word "value" in the search function and put Big Country in as the member - or put my handle in if you want a less educated explanation of the term.

 

 

Please leave my member out of this. :wacko:

 

 

Supply and demand... basic economics assuming a standard league setup.

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This was our draft in 2008. Mostly running backs drafted. Some of those guys were better off going for a QB.

 

Round 1

Pick Team Player Elapsed Time Pts

1 Baby Punchers LaDainian Tomlinson (RB SD) 9 sec 190.0/190.0 (YTD Points)

2 Rat Tail Jimmy Adrian Peterson (RB MIN) 15 sec 226.5/226.5

3 BOO ERIC Brian Westbrook (RB PHI) 7 sec 219.5/219.5

4 Cumsteins Joseph Addai (RB IND) 10 min 0 sec 48.5/109.5

5 Da Coach Steven Jackson (RB STL) 19 sec 125.5/136.0

6 AFGHANIMATION Tom Brady (QB NE) 1 min 35 sec 4.8/4.8

7 Bruce Marion Barber (RB DAL) 1 min 10 sec 199.5/199.5

8 BALLERS Frank Gore (RB SF) 42 sec 197.0/197.0

9 Mike Honcho Tony Romo (QB DAL) 1 min 7 sec 312.8/312.8

10 Eat My Johnny Cakes Peyton Manning (QB IND) 39 sec 287.5/356.8

11 Dave Clinton Portis (RB WAS) 26 sec 188.5/199.0

12 RR Drew Brees (QB NO) 15 sec 445.2/445.2

 

Round 2

13 RR Randy Moss (WR NE) 1 min 25 sec 162.5/162.5

14 Dave Jamal Lewis (RB CLE) 2 min 24 sec 73.5/116.0

15 Eat My Johnny Cakes Larry Johnson (RB KC) 1 min 24 sec 103.5/103.5

16 Mike Honcho Marshawn Lynch (RB BUF) 41 sec 178.0/178.0

17 BALLERS Maurice Jones-Drew (RB JAC) 52 sec 194.0/194.0

18 Bruce Terrell Owens (WR DAL) 41 sec 170.5/170.5

19 AFGHANIMATION Ryan Grant (RB GB) 41 sec 52.0/125.5

20 Da Coach Braylon Edwards (WR CLE) 45 sec 117.5/117.5

21 Cumsteins Reggie Bush (RB NO) 56 sec 134.0/134.0

22 BOO ERIC Willie Parker (RB PIT) 2 min 20 sec 84.5/86.5

23 Rat Tail Jimmy Larry Fitzgerald (WR ARI) 44 sec 221.5/221.5

24 Baby Punchers Reggie Wayne (WR IND) 17 sec 156.5/156.5

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This was our draft in 2008. Mostly running backs drafted. Some of those guys were better off going for a QB.

 

Care to explain this?

 

You could say that the Manning owner was better off going with an RB or that the Moss owner was better off going with Fitzgerald.

 

 

When exploring value, it is a theoretical discussion with the focus being on maximizing expected value (EV). You explore the available options and go the route that is likely to get you the most value of a series of selections. Let's say early on in a draft we are only considering QB, RB or WR. We are also only going to consider our top rated player at each position when it is our pick as we have a high level of confidence in our projections. When it is our turn to pick, we must compare not just the player's available at our current selection, but also what player's we expect to have available in our next few selections so that we can make decisions that net us the players we feel will combine to score the maximum number of points. Factors here are how many selections are there between our picks, the tendencies and team needs of the owners drafting between our picks and our own team needs. Generally speaking, QB scoring is a relatively flat decline, such that the scoring difference between the 3rd scoring QB and the 10th scoring QB is fairly minimal (performing a simple worst starer valuation using a few year's worth of stats con confirm this for your particular league structure), RB scoring is a much more drastic drop and WR falls somewhere in between.

 

So, let's say in our scenario above, we have a QB that we project to score 400 points, an RB we project to score 250 points and a WR we project to score 225 points. From the logic you have used in your above posts, you would say the clear pick is the QB, as they score the most points. But what if our projections show that our #2-5 QBs are projected for between 390 and 370 points, our #2-5 Rbs are projected for 225-200 points and our #2-5 WRs are projected for 220-210 points. If there were 4 picks between our picks (ie, we pick 10th in a 12 team serpentine draft), worst case is that there are 4 of one position taken (not a likely reality, especially at the QB position in a start 1 QB league, but this is a theoretical discussion). If we take a QB, worst case is we take up to a a 50 point drop at RB or a 15 point drop at WR. If we go RB, we take up to a 30 point drop at QB and 15 point drop at WR. If we go WR, we take up to a 30 point drop at QB and a 50 point drop at RB. Looking at the potential point drop, now who seems like the better pick? In my opinion, the RB would be in this case as that maximizes our value at that position by preventing the largest potential value drop.

 

Now, adding the next layer to the scenario, we have to look at our owners tendencies. In many standard leagues (start 1 QB), you don't see the 5th QB taken until the late 3rd/early 4th or even later, yet you often see 16+ RBs taken in the first 2 rounds. This means that there will be times where you are faced with taking a player that has a lower value over a higher value player at another position because the expected dropoff is so great until your next pick, that in order to maximize overall value, you sacrifice value in your current pick (ie, passing on say your #2 ranked QB in order to take your #9 ranked RB, even though your #2 QB has a higher value because you expect your options at your next pick to be your #5 QB or your #21 RB, and the value gap there is much greater).

 

This could get down much further, especially when you start planning out value picks for 4-5 rounds in advance, but it is a necessary step to fully utilize a value based drafting system.

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Not sure I can answer this question since I'm not a fantasy guru, but I'll add my input anyway.

 

One other thing that I have not seen mentioned as well is the fact that from a year-to-year consistency basis RB's will tend to remain at or near the top if they were there the previous season. QB's are a little harder to predict on a year-to-year basis & given most teams will only take two & start one it becomes a lot easier to grab one late or even off waivers that can end up as a fantasy stud by season's end. Take for example Anderson last season & Cassel this season and the majority of the time it is much easier to pick these guys up if you are hurting during the season at the position whereas RBs & WRs are snapped up after one or two decent games or even in the wake of an injured starter.

Edited by rajncajn
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Before the season began, there were four QB's who were "clearly" head and shoulders above the rest, from a projections/rankings perspective:

 

Brady - Out for the season in week 1.

 

Romo - Health has been an issue (missed four games). If not for that, he would most-likely be in the top 3-4 fantasy QB's.

 

Manning - Started very slow, but production has picked up... Still, he's a borderline top-five fantasy QB this year.

 

Brees - Definitely top three, probably #1 overall, depending on scoring.

 

As a group, they have been no better than Rivers, Cutler, Warner, and Rodgers.

 

RB's - Top five was probably Peterson, LT2, Westbrook, Jackson, and Addai... At least two of these can be considered severe disappointments, if not more. Westbrook has been a beast at times, but VERY inconsistent if you factor in the injuries (which you must). Peterson has been consistent, but not overly dominant by any means. As a group, I would certainly be better off with Turner, T Jones, D Williams, Jacobs, and C Johnson (not to mention Slaton and Forte).

 

WR's - Moss, TO, Wayne, A Johnson, Edwards, Fitzgerald... Same thing. A couple have been very good, a couple have been good at times (but inconsistent), and the others have been extremely disappointing. I could certainly find five WR's from this group who have performed just as well or better... Welker, Housh, Boldin, Marshall, White, Bowe, and Jennings. In fact, even guys who were totally off the fantasy radar have done better... Eddiw Royal has outperformed Wayne, and Lance Moore has outscored Moss year-to-date.

 

My point is that QB's are no more (or less) predictable than RB's or WR's are. The difference in most leagues is that you usually have to start multiple RB's, whereas you can get by with one QB. So, it becomes that much more critical that you get at least ONE top RB. In a 12-team league, assuming you start one QB and at least two RB's, the point dropoff between RB #1 and RB #24 is going to be significantly more than the gap between QB #1 and QB #12. It's that simple.

 

If you can predict who next year's Cutler, Rivers, or Warner is going to be with absolute 100% certainty, then sure... go ahead and pick that guy early. Still, even if one could predict the future, there would be no reason to take said QB in round 1... you would be able to snag them much later. I will say this, though... With teams apparently moving more and more away from the traditional 1-back system, and more towards the 60/40 or 70/30 split between two backs, it's becoming much more difficult to identify the RB's who will most certainly justify a first-round pick. We've seen it with a few guys this year... Peterson, Lynch, Addai... Even when they are healthy, they're not always getting the 25 carries that some of us had hoped for. In essence, it's becoming that much more critical that you pick the back in the first round who is going to not only stay healthy, but also be productive. The days of assuming that, just because someone is a starting RB, they will get 70-80% of the RB touches for that team, are essentially over.

 

Personally, I think it's a good thing for fantasy football... Less drafts where the first 10-12 picks are RB's. People are going to take chances on WR's and QB's in the first round as well. All three positions are unpredictable, yet all three can produce players who can legitimately be at the top of the fantasy scoring world.

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On the contrary, what RBBC has done is made a bigger gap between the every down RB's and those that are not . If anything, it has raised the value of the top RB's, not lowered it.

 

Agreed, but we are only talking about the top 3 or 4 backs tops.....even the top back isn't the money shot like TD, LT, LJ, or Priest was back in the day.

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I think the number is really somewhere around 12, at least before injuries. LT, Adrian, Portis, Westbrook, Barber, Gore, Addai, Grant, Forte, Lynch, LJ, Jackson, Turner, Lewis. Getting all of the carries does not insure success, only opportunity. Aside from the running teams (Pitt, Balt, Tenn) that can have a successful back in an RBBC situation, RB's that gets that many carries end up becoming the rocks of your lineup.

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Our point system for QBs is:

 

6 pts per TD... should this be lowered?

.25 pts per pass completion... should we have any at all?

1 pt per 20 yards

 

Is this standard in most leagues?

 

Change TD's to 4 points.

For interceptions -2 points.

 

Eliminate pts per completion.

 

That will help balance it out.

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On the contrary, what RBBC has done is made a bigger gap between the every down RB's and those that are not . If anything, it has raised the value of the top RB's, not lowered it.

True, but there are significantly less "every down RB's" than there used to be, and we are finding out that we don't always know who those "every down RB's" are going to be.

 

I think the number is really somewhere around 12, at least before injuries. LT, Adrian, Portis, Westbrook, Barber, Gore, Addai, Grant, Forte, Lynch, LJ, Jackson, Turner, Lewis. Getting all of the carries does not insure success, only opportunity. Aside from the running teams (Pitt, Balt, Tenn) that can have a successful back in an RBBC situation, RB's that gets that many carries end up becoming the rocks of your lineup.

I would argue that the guys in bold (healthy or not) have become part of RBBC's. Maybe not 50/50 splits, but they're not getting the 25-30 touches every game that would define the "every down" status.

 

- Taylor has been the more consistent receiving back in MIN, so AP loses out on some 3rd down plays because of it.

- Rhodes has been the more productive back of the two, period, and appears to be the more featured short-yardage/goal-line back.

- Fred Jackson has taken a significant portion of the touches away in certain games, particularly when they've had to pass.

- Barber has ALWAYS been more effective as a RBBC back... all the way back to his days at Minnesota with Maroney. He has been more effective in his role as the 3rd-down back OR as the primary back than he has been when asked to do both. In other words, once Felix Jones went down, and Barber was asked to take on an increased work load, he started to break down physically.

 

If we want to get really technical about it, others have proven not to be "every down" backs as well, due to there being better pass-catching or goal-line backs on their respective teams... I think it could be argued that Grant, LJ, Lewis, and even Turner/Westbrook fall into one of those categories. Norwood has been fairly effective on passing downs in Atlanta, and Westbrook has CLEARLY shown that he's not a short-yardage back. That leaves LT, Portis, Gore, Forte, and Jackson as guys that I could see getting not only the majority of their team's carries/touches, but also the majority of their pass plays AND goal-line or short yardage plays.

 

You can agree or disagree with my assessments... that's not really the issue. I'm not intending to get into an argument over whether Michael Turner or Brian Westbrook is an every down back. Clearly, they are both very valuable, no matter how many touches they get. But, it's definitely clear that the "every down" running back is becoming a thing of the past in the NFL.

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The "you can get good QBs late" is true but misleading - I could win the lottery too, but not holding my breath. And you could just as easily pick a bust. Same with RBs. (Rogers vs Slaton for value, Hass vs S Jackson for busts, etc) I think the diff's between the 2 positions is smaller than many seem to think.

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... Westbrook has CLEARLY shown that he's not a short-yardage back. That leaves LT, Portis, Gore, Forte, and Jackson as guys that I could see getting not only the majority of their team's carries/touches, but also the majority of their pass plays AND goal-line or short yardage plays.

 

You can agree or disagree with my assessments... that's not really the issue. I'm not intending to get into an argument over whether Michael Turner or Brian Westbrook is an every down back. Clearly, they are both very valuable, no matter how many touches they get. But, it's definitely clear that the "every down" running back is becoming a thing of the past in the NFL.

 

I agree with some of your points, BUT I can't agree with the Westbrook and him clearly not being a short yardage back. Take a look at this year and all past year.... how many 1-3 yd TD runs have been taken away from Westbrook? I think you would be hard pressed to find 10 in the last 3-5 years. He might not be ideal, but it isn't like the last days of Jerome Bettis in Pittsburgh where as soon as they are inside the 5 or 4th and 2 or less in comes Bettis. Westbrook is by far the most elite player on the Eagles. His production is down a little because he has been slowed by the 400 injuries he has had this year. That has limited Philly's ability to split him out and use him as a WR like they have down a lot in the past. I would say their struggles this year with running the ball were due to playcalling #1 and being unhealthy #2(both Westbrook and the Offensive Line)

 

As far as LT.... I'm not sure he belongs in that category this year....maybe in the future, but he spends a lot of time on the sidelines on 3rd downs. Sproles has proven to be a much better pass catcher currently then LT

 

I think one thing people don't put enough stock in is having a guy on a GOOD RUNNING SCHEME TEAM. Guys like Forte/CJohnson/LWhite didn't get the value they deserved. They all over achieved way beyond what was projected, but they are all on teams who value a good run game and who strive to run 1st.

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This was our draft in 2008. Mostly running backs drafted. Some of those guys were better off going for a QB.

 

Round 1

Pick Team Player Elapsed Time Pts

1 Baby Punchers LaDainian Tomlinson (RB SD) 9 sec 190.0/190.0 (YTD Points)

2 Rat Tail Jimmy Adrian Peterson (RB MIN) 15 sec 226.5/226.5

3 BOO ERIC Brian Westbrook (RB PHI) 7 sec 219.5/219.5

4 Cumsteins Joseph Addai (RB IND) 10 min 0 sec 48.5/109.5

5 Da Coach Steven Jackson (RB STL) 19 sec 125.5/136.0

6 AFGHANIMATION Tom Brady (QB NE) 1 min 35 sec 4.8/4.8

7 Bruce Marion Barber (RB DAL) 1 min 10 sec 199.5/199.5

8 BALLERS Frank Gore (RB SF) 42 sec 197.0/197.0

9 Mike Honcho Tony Romo (QB DAL) 1 min 7 sec 312.8/312.8

10 Eat My Johnny Cakes Peyton Manning (QB IND) 39 sec 287.5/356.8

11 Dave Clinton Portis (RB WAS) 26 sec 188.5/199.0

12 RR Drew Brees (QB NO) 15 sec 445.2/445.2

 

Round 2

13 RR Randy Moss (WR NE) 1 min 25 sec 162.5/162.5

14 Dave Jamal Lewis (RB CLE) 2 min 24 sec 73.5/116.0

15 Eat My Johnny Cakes Larry Johnson (RB KC) 1 min 24 sec 103.5/103.5

16 Mike Honcho Marshawn Lynch (RB BUF) 41 sec 178.0/178.0

17 BALLERS Maurice Jones-Drew (RB JAC) 52 sec 194.0/194.0

18 Bruce Terrell Owens (WR DAL) 41 sec 170.5/170.5

19 AFGHANIMATION Ryan Grant (RB GB) 41 sec 52.0/125.5

20 Da Coach Braylon Edwards (WR CLE) 45 sec 117.5/117.5

21 Cumsteins Reggie Bush (RB NO) 56 sec 134.0/134.0

22 BOO ERIC Willie Parker (RB PIT) 2 min 20 sec 84.5/86.5

23 Rat Tail Jimmy Larry Fitzgerald (WR ARI) 44 sec 221.5/221.5

24 Baby Punchers Reggie Wayne (WR IND) 17 sec 156.5/156.5

Rat Rail wins

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RBs and their high relative value have taken a big hit due to the spread of RBBC in the NFL....pure and simple. The argument to take RBs early over other skill positions is a lot less potent now-a-days in my mind.

 

That's the way I feel.

 

I drafted QB/WR/WR. I did get Brady but I replaced him with Warner. I went to be the #1 team in my league with the best record/points.

 

So many star RBs get hurt or their team turns into a goal line vulture situation or a RBBC. You don't see QBs getting taken out at the goal line and being replaced by back ups.

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