Steeltown Dre Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are. I think it's a good week to try the bad weather middle scenario. Several games w/ bad weather and prime totals for trying this strategy. Good luck in the 2nd to last week of the season! Sad but true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 49ers - 5.5 Saints - 7 Jets - 4.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 On the PIT -1.5 so far. The Titans are starting to show their true colors... they're a legit playoff team, but not the best in the conference, especially with Hainesworth hurt. I think the Steelers win by at least a FG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 On the PIT -1.5 so far. The Titans are starting to show their true colors... they're a legit playoff team, but not the best in the conference, especially with Hainesworth hurt. I think the Steelers win by at least a FG. +1 With the two DL studs out for the Titans, the Steelers should be able to run the ball much easier than have past opponents of the Titans. Add on that the Titans offensive strength (running) should be offset by the Steller strength (run defense). I see the Steelers in a surprisingly easy win for them. 23-10 sounds about right. Also, from the early lines: NE -8 : the west-to-east travel, the weather, a meaningless game for Arizona....all bode well for NE NYG -3 : something, I'm not sure what, tells me the Giants rebound here with a big effort at home BAL +4 : BAL is good enough to win this with defense, forcing Romo, with his already achy back, into turnover mode. Romo's record of success in big December games is small (barring last week)...this game goes either way. the line striking me as very odd is NO/DET...the Saints only favored by 7. My gut tells me the Saints win this game 31-13...so why is the line so low? Why is vegas begging me to take the Saints? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 17, 2008 Author Share Posted December 17, 2008 Not my research but I know it to be true: In games Orlovsky has started, the team has been competitive. Detroit (+13) loses to Minnesota 12-10Detroit (+11) loses at Houston 28-21 Detroit (+7) loses to Washington 25-17 Detroit (+13) loses at Chicago 27-23 Detroit (+17) loses at Indy 31-21 That's 4-1 ATS, with the non-cover being due to a punt return TD. The average result was a 6 point loss against teams who are currently at .500 or better, with three of the five games on the road. Both teams are playing for something here, although it does not seem like it. Pierre Thomas has something to prove and I am sure Sean Payton wants to use every opportunity to test things w/ his offense. But I think the will for Detroit to avoid an 0-16 season is far greater than that of NO wanting to avoid a loss to an 0-14 team. A loss to Detroit does not put the Saints into the Hall of Fame. A loss to the Saints in the Lions last home game of the season and a road loss in GB next week (who won 48-25 in Det earlier this year) WILL put Detroit in the Hall of Fame. For something they will never want to be remembered. That said, NO is more talented than Detroit. And Brees on offense guides a more explosive offense than any of the other teams listed above. Be careful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 Be careful. Excellent stats. the line struck me as odd, and I usually go the other way when I see something so blatantly telling me to pick a side. As much as I like the Saints in this one, I'll likely pass on the wager. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 Dre. I noticed Miami games go under a fair amount of time. Do you have figures on that ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 17, 2008 Author Share Posted December 17, 2008 Dre. I noticed Miami games go under a fair amount of time. Do you have figures on that ? Good eye. Miami is 5-9 to the Under this season, 2nd most in the NFL (Washington is a remarkable 2-12 to the Under and non-stop unders since week 5) Miami has gone 1-7 to the Unders since week 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 18, 2008 Share Posted December 18, 2008 Jax +7 This is a game where the public will be all over the superior Colts, but the Colts are not the right play in my opinion. This is Jacksonville's "big moment" in the national eye tonight. A situation similar to Cleveland's home game vs. the Giants mid-season. Don't discount the relevance of this factor. This is the Jaguars Superbowl. The Jags have nothing to lose except a little more pride. The pressure in this game is all with the Colts as they try to assure themselves a playoff spot. The Jags have been walking wounded all year long, but the Colts aren't exactly the healthiest team in the league themselves, with key players missing this game. The Colts have not won on the road this season by more than 4 if I am thinking correctly here, and Jacksonville being a division rival always gives them all they have. I am relatively sure the Colts will find a way to get the road win tonight, but to me, laying 6 or 7 points on it is suicide. I will side with the books on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 18, 2008 Share Posted December 18, 2008 For tonight and Saturday, I have a couple of small parlays, and a couple of small teasers: 6 Point Teaser (2 Teams) Colts(Indianapolis) 0 BAL/DAL Under 45.5 7 Point Teaser (2 Teams) IND/JAC Under 51 Cowboys(Dallas) +3 2-team parlay: Colts(Indianapolis) -260 Cowboys(Dallas) -190 Parlay (3 Teams) Colts(Indianapolis) -260 Cowboys(Dallas) -190 BAL/DAL Under 39.5 Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 18, 2008 Share Posted December 18, 2008 For tonight and Saturday, I have a couple of small parlays, and a couple of small teasers: 6 Point Teaser (2 Teams) Colts(Indianapolis) 0 BAL/DAL Under 45.5 7 Point Teaser (2 Teams) IND/JAC Under 51 Cowboys(Dallas) +3 2-team parlay: Colts(Indianapolis) -260 Cowboys(Dallas) -190 Parlay (3 Teams) Colts(Indianapolis) -260 Cowboys(Dallas) -190 BAL/DAL Under 39.5 Good luck! Goph, don't like these one bit, mostly due to the BAL/DAL portions of these wagers. I think the game has a good chance to go over, with both defenses playing large roles in creating short fields for the offenses...and one (or both) will likely find the endzone themsleves...so you are really only talking about both offenses scoring 26-33 points. I also think Baltimore has a great chance to win the game outright. Their defense will pressure an immobile Romo (back) into a handful of bad throws/INTs/sacks. I think the defese sets up 17-20 points for the offense. If the offense can muster just one TD by their own doing, that should be enough to win the game for the Ravens. Be careful here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 18, 2008 Share Posted December 18, 2008 I'm going on Indy tonight (lightly). I've been pretty good on them this year (both on and against), and I think this is a statement game for them. Definitely will be on Detroit - saw the same thing Dre did and if there's more a matchup of teams playing for someting/playing for nothing this year.... Love Philly as usual... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 18, 2008 Share Posted December 18, 2008 Goph, don't like these one bit, mostly due to the BAL/DAL portions of these wagers. I think the game has a good chance to go over, with both defenses playing large roles in creating short fields for the offenses...and one (or both) will likely find the endzone themsleves...so you are really only talking about both offenses scoring 26-33 points. I also think Baltimore has a great chance to win the game outright. Their defense will pressure an immobile Romo (back) into a handful of bad throws/INTs/sacks. I think the defese sets up 17-20 points for the offense. If the offense can muster just one TD by their own doing, that should be enough to win the game for the Ravens. Be careful here. Fair enough. My thoughts: - Dallas needs this more than Baltimore does, although it most certainly means a lot to both teams. Both teams are 9-5, and probably need to be at least 10-6 to make the post-season. Dallas goes to Philly next week, Baltimore hosts Jacksonville. - Dallas is at home, where weather/cold will adversely affect them less than it did in Pittsburgh. They've won 5 straight at Texas Stadium. - The Cowboys defense is playing their best football of the season right now, improving every week. I think they'll be able to neutralize what the Ravens do to Romo by coming up with some big plays of their own. - Dallas games have been on the Under side four out of the last five games, which I think is a reflection of their defense improving and their offense struggling. I don't think this is an obvious win for Dallas, and I definitely wouldn't touch the four points they are giving. I think it will be a low-scoring battle between two teams whose defenses are playing head and shoulders above their offenses. I'll take my chances on the home team, against a rookie QB, to win (but not necessarily cover). Same goes with the IND/JAC game... I think the Jags will definitely come out fighting, and try to make this their last (and some may argue only) "hurrah" of this season. But, when push comes to shove, I think the Colts will prevail because they simply need this W more than the Jags do. The Colts are the hottest team in the NFL right now... quietly winning 7 in a row, and giving them an outside shot at the division. They clinch a playoff berth with a win tonight, but they also face Tennessee next week. Tennessee is cooling off, to say the least, and I think Dungy and the Colts would like nothing more than to steal the division next week and secure a home game in the first round of the playoffs. I don't care what people say about their new stadium not having much of a home-field advantage from a crowd noise perspective... the Colts would MUCH rather play at home in the wild-card round than travel to New York, Miami, or New England. Losing this week would put them in jeopardy of not only playing a road game, but also missing the playoffs entirely. They've worked too hard the past two months to let that become a possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 18, 2008 Share Posted December 18, 2008 For what it's worth, I'm also thinking about teasing the Baltimore game in the other direction as well. I just don't see this being a blowout either way. Doing a 6- or 6.5-point teaser to give Baltimore 10 or 10.5 points seems like another solid option, especially if you can pinpoint whether to go over roughly 33 or under 45. Personally, I am leaning towards the Under 39.5, and would tease it in that direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 18, 2008 Share Posted December 18, 2008 especially if you can pinpoint whether to go over roughly 33 or under 45. I too think it falls right in the range...teasing 39.5 in either direction looks safe...parlaying the 39.5, not so much. Good points on Dallas...I'm just not convinced its a game I'd hinge three wagers on. Either way, best of luck, and I hope it works for you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 18, 2008 Share Posted December 18, 2008 Lang is on Colts tonight so I feel better about my play already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 19, 2008 Author Share Posted December 19, 2008 Tough, tough beat for Jacksonville last night fellas. Be aware of weather situations for NE (winter storm warning today, its snowing in Boston and 4-6" w/ wind expected today and tonight. Very cold tomorrow, warming on Sunday a bit but still snow/rain/wind expected on Sunday), Cleveland and New York before making your bets... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 19, 2008 Share Posted December 19, 2008 Tough, tough beat for Jacksonville last night fellas. Be aware of weather situations for NE (winter storm warning today, its snowing in Boston and 4-6" w/ wind expected today and tonight. Very cold tomorrow, warming on Sunday a bit but still snow/rain/wind expected on Sunday), Cleveland and New York before making your bets... On the other hand, I am fortunate to have both parlays and one of two teasers still intact. Lost the other teaser due to the Colts defense not showing up until the 2nd half (missed the Under 51). For a while, though, it looked like I might lose all four. I'm still sticking to my guns on the Cowboys to win and the Under 39.5 for Saturday. A couple of others that I've put small wagers on for Sunday are: ATL/MIN Over 43 CIN/CLE Over 32.5 I think all teams involved SHOULD be able to score enough points to cover that easily, particularly the Cleveland game. I realize both teams are a shell of their former self, but we're talking about two teams that lit up the score board for 100+ points when they played last year. I'm thinking 20-17 minimum in that game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 19, 2008 Share Posted December 19, 2008 Tough, tough beat for Jacksonville last night fellas. Be aware of weather situations for NE (winter storm warning today, its snowing in Boston and 4-6" w/ wind expected today and tonight. Very cold tomorrow, warming on Sunday a bit but still snow/rain/wind expected on Sunday), Cleveland and New York before making your bets... ...add Washington to the mix of bad weather sites. No snow, but a cold rain, high in the upper 30's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 19, 2008 Share Posted December 19, 2008 Tough, tough beat for Jacksonville last night fellas. Glad I was in at 7. Local had it at 6 and I refused. Also played Colts ML so I came out OK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 19, 2008 Author Share Posted December 19, 2008 CIN/CLE Over 32.5 I think all teams involved SHOULD be able to score enough points to cover that easily, particularly the Cleveland game. I realize both teams are a shell of their former self, but we're talking about two teams that lit up the score board for 100+ points when they played last year. I'm thinking 20-17 minimum in that game. Gopher, just be careful w/ that Cle game. I got my people in on the Under 35 and we'll be shooting for a middle pending actual weather on gameday. Have you seen the forecast for Cleveland? 24-27 MPH sustained winds, temps between 26 and 22 degrees (dropping throughout the game) and 65% chance of snow. Quite possibly the worst weather of the weekend, especially w/ those winds! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 20, 2008 Share Posted December 20, 2008 By the way, I didn't realize until after my post above that the Colts do not have a chance at the division. Tennessee has clinched... my bad. Either way, my point was that, although the Jags would come out fighting (which they obviously did), the Colts had more to play for and needed the game much more than Jacksonville. Worked out for me, but it was a little too close for comfort... One more game I've placed a small wager on is: STL +5.5 - At home against the 49ers... I just think this is too many points for the Niners to be giving, considering Gore very well may not play. The Rams are a much better team with Jackson healthy, which he is for the first time since he destroyed the Cowboys single-handedly earlier this year. A healthy Jackson also opens things up in the passing gamel, and the Rams will be able to exploit a weakened SF secondary. I'm picking the Rams at home to stay within the 5.5 points. No weather to be a factor in St. Louis.... And, by the way... I have considered the weather in Cleveland and still like the chances of this game going over. Thanks for the heads up, though, Dre. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 20, 2008 Share Posted December 20, 2008 At first glance . Jets / Sea over 42 and Pit / tenn over 34. I think I like the pitt one more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 20, 2008 Author Share Posted December 20, 2008 And, by the way... I have considered the weather in Cleveland and still like the chances of this game going over. Thanks for the heads up, though, Dre. No problem Gopher, just remember, even if you do like the teams to combine to score more, as long as the forecast does not change, the line likely will not go up. If anything, if the forecast is the same and the Saturday night crew gets here tomorrow, the line will drop a bit. I see it for 31 right now, 31.5 and some 32s everywhere else. So from 1:45pm when you posted to now, it dropped another 1 point (though at your shop maybe it's still 32.5). My advice on these bad weather games are to become a line watcher. When I'm holding a 35 in my back pocket, I am going to see how the line moves and shoot for a nice middle or, come Sunday gametime, if the weather really is as bad as they say, maybe let the under ride. But unless that weather changes, I'm not putting my over in until the very end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 20, 2008 Share Posted December 20, 2008 No problem Gopher, just remember, even if you do like the teams to combine to score more, as long as the forecast does not change, the line likely will not go up. If anything, if the forecast is the same and the Saturday night crew gets here tomorrow, the line will drop a bit. I see it for 31 right now, 31.5 and some 32s everywhere else. So from 1:45pm when you posted to now, it dropped another 1 point (though at your shop maybe it's still 32.5). My advice on these bad weather games are to become a line watcher. When I'm holding a 35 in my back pocket, I am going to see how the line moves and shoot for a nice middle or, come Sunday gametime, if the weather really is as bad as they say, maybe let the under ride. But unless that weather changes, I'm not putting my over in until the very end. Good info... Thanks again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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