Steeltown Dre Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are. Divisional Round features revenge matchups in each game. Gives us the opportunity to have some type of measuring stick to compare teams. When looking at those matchups, remember to factor: Injuries for each team at the time of their earlier game(s), and which players are back now (and which are not) Whether the team is playing better/worse now then they were earlier in the year The final score of the first matchup may not be indicative of who controlled the game and "should have" covered Plus we've got the national championship for all you college guys. Only bad news is, after this Sunday, there are just 3 NFL games left to be played this season. We've got 4 this weekend, so let's make them count. Good luck and Happy New Year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 75% of home teams usually win these games (better teams at home with a bye - makes sense)- however, the spreads on these are pretty large so just winning won't mean covering necessarily as opposed to last week. Right now, I like both AFC top seeds to cover, like the Eagles to win outright (biased pick - I've bet $100 plus on them every week for the last 5 seasons plus), and am struglling with the line on Carolina - figured it be 6 or so and would have gone Carolina, but double digits is a ton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 and am struglling with the line on Carolina - figured it be 6 or so and would have gone Carolina, but double digits is a ton I here ya. The Pitt line is 6? That's higher than I expected also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 I here ya. The Pitt line is 6? That's higher than I expected also. Yea, all the lines actually were higher than I thought they'd be, but if you go with "home team plus bye = 3", then add on the differences btwen the teams (Tenn and Bal pretty even, Pitt a FG better, NY a pt better) makes sense, then the Carolina - AZ game is so tricky anyway, saying on a neutral atmosphere Carolina is a TD winner - sure, what hte heck, guess it makes sense. None of which helps figuring anything out - think I may just go with a 75% rule of both AFC favs and Carolina play plus Philly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derek Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 i think carolina wins by double digits. arizona has been putrid on the road and they're going to the east coast yet again. forecast is rain which heavily favors carolina's running attack. we could see something similar to arz's game up in new england, but probably not as severe. boldin might be out which also hurts arz. i just see carolina's defense stepping up at home after a bye pressuring warner, and the running game carrying the offense. i'd only worry about delhomme sh1tting himself like he did for a few games there, but i see carolina with an easy vic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 As Dre said, very few games left to play this season. Gotta make them count. Here is how I am seeing it. Florida - I am on this game on the back end of a 6 point teaser at +3 so feel pretty good about that. Also on them with the ML on back end of a parlay that hit Tulsa -3. Now the spread is 5. I wouldn't be as thrilled to give up 5 as opposed to where I am now, but between 3.5 and 5.5 the spread usually doesn't matter much. Florida has the superior defense in my opinion, and Choklahoma has a nasty habit of coming up small in these BCS games lately. Bal +3 - Jeff Fisher could be the difference in this game. If any head coach can guide his team through the scary gauntlet that is the Ravens defense, he can. I think the line for this game is right on. It will probably be a 3 point margin or less. I'm just not so sure that it will be the Titans that end up winning it. I'm just not sure the Titans will have answers for the Ravens defense. The Ravens defense is probably playing the best of any unit left in the playoffs, and are absolutely capable of taking over this game and the tournament. I'll not bet against them again this year. Carolina -10 - Having been burned by Jake Delhomme in the past, I will not be playing this game. It seems like a good play, I just can't do it. Phil +4 - Divisional foes that have split games already this season. The road team has had success lately in this series. Another game that is too close to call, but for me it is an easy call to take the 4 and pray that this isn't the week that McNabb has the melt-down. SD +6 - I'm not going to continue to beat my head up against the wall betting against the Chargers. Enough already. They won't likely look like the same team that ran roughshod over the Colts last week, but considering their near win at Pittsburgh earlier this season, they are not a team I am slobbering all over myself to lay 6 points against either. I don't think the Chargers will win this game, but somehow, some way, they will find a way to kill the throngs of Steelers bettors laying the heavy lumber this week. Worst case scenario, throwing my support behind the Chargers turns them back into pumpkins and I won't have to worry about them costing me any more $$ this season. It's a win/win pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 As Dre said, very few games left to play this season. Gotta make them count. Here is how I am seeing it. Florida - I am on this game on the back end of a 6 point teaser at +3 so feel pretty good about that. Also on them with the ML on back end of a parlay that hit Tulsa -3. Now the spread is 5. I wouldn't be as thrilled to give up 5 as opposed to where I am now, but between 3.5 and 5.5 the spread usually doesn't matter much. Florida has the superior defense in my opinion, and Choklahoma has a nasty habit of coming up small in these BCS games lately. Bal +3 - Jeff Fisher could be the difference in this game. If any head coach can guide his team through the scary gauntlet that is the Ravens defense, he can. I think the line for this game is right on. It will probably be a 3 point margin or less. I'm just not so sure that it will be the Titans that end up winning it. I'm just not sure the Titans will have answers for the Ravens defense. The Ravens defense is probably playing the best of any unit left in the playoffs, and are absolutely capable of taking over this game and the tournament. I'll not bet against them again this year. Carolina -10 - Having been burned by Jake Delhomme in the past, I will not be playing this game. It seems like a good play, I just can't do it. Phil +4 - Divisional foes that have split games already this season. The road team has had success lately in this series. Another game that is too close to call, but for me it is an easy call to take the 4 and pray that this isn't the week that McNabb has the melt-down. SD +6 - I'm not going to continue to beat my head up against the wall betting against the Chargers. Enough already. They won't likely look like the same team that ran roughshod over the Colts last week, but considering their near win at Pittsburgh earlier this season, they are not a team I am slobbering all over myself to lay 6 points against either. I don't think the Chargers will win this game, but somehow, some way, they will find a way to kill the throngs of Steelers bettors laying the heavy lumber this week. Worst case scenario, throwing my support behind the Chargers turns them back into pumpkins and I won't have to worry about them costing me any more $$ this season. It's a win/win pick. Right there with you on the NC game tonight, but I have the complete opposites on the NFL games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 Right there with you on the NC game tonight, but I have the complete opposites on the NFL games. Maybe we should just bet each other and leave the house out of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 Maybe we should just bet each other and leave the house out of it. Unfortunately (for you, more than likely), I don't have the coin to throw money down this week. I'm clinging on my Sidelines team(s) as far as NFL playoff rooting goes. We'll see how it plays out. I think Carolina wins this weekend, but I see them being up big most of the game and the Cards posting a moderate comeback to keep it under double digits. I think the Steelers will manhandle the Bolts. Their defense will be the key. I'm not buying the Ravens. They beat the Fins, who I think were a sham all season. Ravens' D is stout, but so is the Titans. They are going to expose Flacco. The Eagles are hot and I could see this one coming down to a FG, but I think the G-men run all over the place and win by a TD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derek Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 i know teasers are a-hole bets, but does anyone not like this? florida gators 0 baltimore +9 carolina -4 phili +10 pitt 0 possibly add the under on bal/ten at 38 (you get 3 pts for o/u's) also still looking at sd/pit. i could go sd +12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 what's the o/u tonight, 80? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 i know teasers are a-hole bets, but does anyone not like this? florida gators 0 baltimore +9 carolina -4 phili +10 pitt 0 possibly add the under on bal/ten at 38 (you get 3 pts for o/u's) also still looking at sd/pit. i could go sd +12 I love the BAL and PHI parts of that teaser. CAR... probably, but if the Cardinals come to play, I could see the Panthers only winning by a FG. SD makes me nervous, just because everyone keeps counting them out, and they've got nothing to lose at this point. As far as tonight's game, I THINK the Gators are going to win, but I've been wrong more than right this bowl season, so I'm more than a little apprehensive about that as well. However, none of those are so risky that they're not worth putting a small wager on it (assuming it's something like a 6-pt teaser that probably pays in the neighbourhood of 4 to 1). Having played WAY more than my share of teasers this year, I can tell you that the odds are pretty high that one of these games throws a wrench in things. I'd probably take the BCS game out of the equation (but that's just me), go with the SD +12 (low-scoring game that will more than likely be within 10 either way), and take a close look at the weather before deciding on CAR or not. Bad weather equals much less of a chance that the Cards keep it close, IMO. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derek Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 what's the o/u tonight, 80? 69.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derek Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 I love the BAL and PHI parts of that teaser. CAR... probably, but if the Cardinals come to play, I could see the Panthers only winning by a FG. SD makes me nervous, just because everyone keeps counting them out, and they've got nothing to lose at this point. As far as tonight's game, I THINK the Gators are going to win, but I've been wrong more than right this bowl season, so I'm more than a little apprehensive about that as well. However, none of those are so risky that they're not worth putting a small wager on it (assuming it's something like a 6-pt teaser that probably pays in the neighbourhood of 4 to 1). Having played WAY more than my share of teasers this year, I can tell you that the odds are pretty high that one of these games throws a wrench in things. I'd probably take the BCS game out of the equation (but that's just me), go with the SD +12 (low-scoring game that will more than likely be within 10 either way), and take a close look at the weather before deciding on CAR or not. Bad weather equals much less of a chance that the Cards keep it close, IMO. Good luck. like your insight here. thank you. if i do this it'll be sd +12 that way i don't depend on pitt winning and yes it should be close. i added UF to increase my payout. hey if they lose i could always do another parlay before nfl starts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derek Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 hey goph i ended up not touching ou/fla and i'm sure glad i didn't. i am going to do bal, car, phi, sd, and sd/pit under in a teaser. wish me luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 So far i'm on with Ravens + 3 Pitt. - 6 Carolina / AZ & Philly / Giants I just can not get a feel for these games ?? I think i'm going to play the Over in these games root for both to score. Carolina / Arizona Over 48 Philly / Giants Over 40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 Dre, it's Friday and no plays posted yet on your sight. After my embarrassing loss last week on the Colts ( my best bet of the week ) I'm hoping you post some agreement with my selections this week. I actually had the Colts going to the AFC title game. I must of been drunk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 (edited) Drunk - all my system stuff is there since I started the new page on Tuesday. I pretty much never post Personal Plays until Friday night, and sometimes it trickles into Saturday AM. Did you take my Ari and Bal last week? I hope you didn't put too much into that Ind play - I didn't like a side in that game at all, so I went w/ the under. My ATS system shows the lines to be pretty tight this week, but I am seeing a few sides I like. As for the discussion on teasers, this time of year is not the worst to try your hand at a teaser. My advice, keep it to a 2 teamer and ignore what you may have heard about "teasing across zero". If needed, read my article from a year or two ago on the topic: Teaser Article I will tell you this though: Based on no other numbers aside from Home favorites of between 3 and 6 (which covers 3 of the 4 games), these teams have hit at an avg 44% after the WC round since 2002. But getting 6 points, they have hit at a rate of 67%. Which sounds good, until you multiply 0.67 x 0.67 and you get 45%. Don't take away too much from that, aside from the fact that typically it is difficult to hit teasers and they called them that for a reason. Especially when you combine 3+ teams. That said, I definitely have considered some 6 pt teaser combinations when doing my research and analysis this week. I prefer straight plays 99% of the time, but teasers can be done right and can win. Good luck guys. Edited January 9, 2009 by Steeltown Dre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 (edited) Drunk - all my system stuff is there since I started the new page on Tuesday. I pretty much never post Personal Plays until Friday night, and sometimes it trickles into Saturday AM. Did you take my Ari and Bal last week? I hope you didn't put too much into that Ind play - I didn't like a side in that game at all, so I went w/ the under. I loaded up on the Colts last week 4 x my average wager size and i will pick one of the 4 wagers i like and chase what i lost last week. smart no, will do it anyway ? yes still fat for the season though but that game left a bad taste in my mouth. so i have my wagers in and will look forward to see what you post to decided which i use to chase last weeks lose with. Edited January 9, 2009 by MustOfBeenDrunk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 OK threw a small teaser into the mix Here is your wager ticket: Wager ID: 281 Wager Date: 1/9/2009 5:07:55 PM Player: 008 Shea Season: 2008 NFL Football Bet Type: 7 point teaser (4 teams) Wager Amt: $50.00/$100.00 Result: Pending ================================================== Pick: +10 Baltimore Ravens (Pending) Score: Baltimore Ravens Tennessee Titans 01/10/2009 3:30 PM ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ Pick: Over 41.5 (Pending) Score: Arizona Cardinals Carolina Panthers 01/10/2009 7:15 PM ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ Pick: Over 33 (Pending) Score: Philadelphia Eagles New York Giants 01/11/2009 12:00 PM ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ Pick: +1 Pittsburgh Steelers (Pending) Score: San Diego Chargers Pittsburgh Steelers 01/11/2009 3:45 PM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted January 10, 2009 Share Posted January 10, 2009 75% of home teams usually win these games (better teams at home with a bye - makes sense) does anyone know what percentage of these wins were covers over the last several years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMikeinNY Posted January 10, 2009 Share Posted January 10, 2009 BigMike's Big Winners Carolina / Arizona Over 48 Tenn. -3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 10, 2009 Share Posted January 10, 2009 Took Balt +3. Also a teaser at Balt +9 Car -4. Good luck everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 11, 2009 Share Posted January 11, 2009 Not a bad day yesterday. I got "that feeling" about Delhomme before the 2nd game yesterday and hit 1H parlay AZ+7/Over 24.5, which made up for the lost teaser bet. Hit on the Ravens. Today it is more underdogs. I'm not sure just what the hell is going on. Home field advantage used to mean something. Apparently in this tournament it means you are about to play your last game. My thoughts have not changed since my original post, except I am thinking more and more that the Chargers can do what the Cardinals did yesterday. Here is what I am on. Phil +4 teaser Phil +10 SD +13 parlay Phil ML SD ML Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted January 11, 2009 Share Posted January 11, 2009 So far so good for me too Started the week with Florida & the under 2-o Yesterday hit the Ravens + 3 Also Hit the 1st two parts of my teaser Still have Pitt - 6 and to complete my 4-team teaser Phiily / Giants over 33 Pitt + 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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