i_am_the_swammi Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 I really don't consider it "hedging" to say that the key to the game will be the Cards ability to protect Warner. Obviously if the blitz gets to Warner all day it is game over for the Cards. Bottom line is though, I don't think that will happen, and the Cardinals will prevail. Interesting note here. I found out some stats today that are noteworthy for those of you that are laying coin on this game. The Cardinals find themselves in an 80% win betting situation. The Eagles won outright on the road last week as an underdog. Teams in that scenario fail to cover the spread 80% of the time when they go on the road as a favorite the following week. This trends extends for several years back. Also of note is that of the last 12 championship games played the spread has only come into play one time. So basically, whichever team wins these games covers the spread. Put those two facts together, along with the thoughts I already expressed in the blog, I think you can see the direction of my next sports investment. PM me...perhaps we can eliminate the juice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 PM me...perhaps we can eliminate the juice. We could. Are you betting the Eagles ML? My thought right now is to wait until the ML gets to +200. If you want to go that way right now we can do it. I'll take the Cards at 2-1 and you have the Eagles at 1-2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 Here is another nugget to chew on. Teams that beat the defending Super Bowl Champions in the playoffs are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS in their next game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDFFFreak Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 I'd feel a lot better about the spread and taking the Eagles if the line was 3 as opposed 3.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 I'd feel a lot better about the spread and taking the Eagles if the line was 3 as opposed 3.5. Eagles are currently a 4.5 point favorite....big early money coming in on the favorites. 3:00pNFL - CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS Preview Matchup Injuries 313 Philadelphia Eagles -4½ - 47 (-115)o (-105)u 314 Arizona Cardinals +4½ Game can be seen on FOX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 We could. Are you betting the Eagles ML? My thought right now is to wait until the ML gets to +200. If you want to go that way right now we can do it. I'll take the Cards at 2-1 and you have the Eagles at 1-2. Hmm...my early thoughts were the Eagles -3 and the under (47)...tho the line continues to creep north. had it stayed at 3, I would have given the points kept my odds even. But now that it could close as high as 5-5.5, I may take you up on the ML wager. I'll let you know. I may tease it to Eagles +1/under 53, and not have to lay those ML odds (since I am pretty confident in the under). Like Scrouge, I like a rather convincing Eagles win here....the Eagles defensively are a nightmare for what Arizona likes to do. Their DBs love to jam WRs at the LOS to disrupt the timing of routes while the DL gets to the QB. The defense is very fast, and closes quickly to negate any YAC WRs usually produce. Both of those are critical to the success of the Cardinal passing game. Where the Eagles have had problems this year (Baltimore, NYG, Washington were 4 of their 6 losses) are teams that love to run the ball almost exclusively. James and Hightower do not offer any cause for concern. Eagles 27, Cards 17 looks about right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 I like the Eagles. And I like McNabb. If they win this game it won't kill me. But my mind just keeps creeping back to that 3 year stretch of McNabb in the NFC Championship game. He got over when confronted with the Mike Vick led Falcons, but before that his record in Championships was not stellar: 54/101/ 2td / 5int. He did go on to have a statistically good game in the Superbowl, but also threw 3 picks. I'm like a dog. If you beat me enough, I will finally learn the trick. And the trick seems to be not to bet on McNabb in the big game. I have been down that road. It has never ended well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDFFFreak Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 (edited) Eagles are currently a 4.5 point favorite....big early money coming in on the favorites. 3:00pNFL - CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS Preview Matchup Injuries 313 Philadelphia Eagles -4½ - 47 (-115)o (-105)u 314 Arizona Cardinals +4½ Game can be seen on FOX Wow! It shot up. As of yesterday I saw it at 3.5. All this Philly love is making me a little nervous. Edited January 14, 2009 by TDFFFreak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 And the trick seems to be not to bet on McNabb in the big game. I have been down that road. It has never ended well. Counting the Dallas game, the last three games have been "big" games, since they were must-win....3-0 s/u & against the spread, and they have given up exactly one TD in that stretch, while McNabb has accounted for 6 TDs against 3 INTS against some pretty formidable foes, for two of them on the road, and one in adverse conditions. He has played about as well as he has his entire career in managing the game for his defense to win. I guess it goes to how you define "big". And how far back into history you want to go...is 2001 really relevant today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 Here is another nugget to chew on. Teams that beat the defending Super Bowl Champions in the playoffs are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS in their next game Ratt - I checked this in my playoff DB which goes back to 1978 and I have: Teams who defeated the defending NFL champion in the WC or Div round are 0-9 SU and ATS in their following game since 1978. Teams who defeated the defending NFL champion in the CC round are 2-0 SU and ATS in the Super Bowl since 1978. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitzkek Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 I like the Eagles. And I like McNabb. If they win this game it won't kill me. But my mind just keeps creeping back to that 3 year stretch of McNabb in the NFC Championship game. He got over when confronted with the Mike Vick led Falcons, but before that his record in Championships was not stellar: 54/101/ 2td / 5int. He did go on to have a statistically good game in the Superbowl, but also threw 3 picks. I'm like a dog. If you beat me enough, I will finally learn the trick. And the trick seems to be not to bet on McNabb in the big game. I have been down that road. It has never ended well. You are really starting to bring me down, man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 You are really starting to bring me down, man. It will be a cushier landing that way. On the bright side, if the Eagles can get past this game I would like their chances in the SB. I think... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 That would be correct ... however, I would consider the cardinal to be the prey! I have a new avatar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 I have a new avatar hmmm,.....me too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Cardinals have NO shot.. Keep dreaming fellas. The intensity the Eagles are playing with is like no team's I have seen in the past. They have been to the NFC Championship 5 out of the last 10 years now. They know time is running out. I just don't see how they lose the game... So, there you go. I will be the bold one and say the game is never close. 31-17 Eagles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scourge Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Lucky... cards gimick play and McNabb choking yet again in a big game.. Fitzgerald was the man though... Warner is a little bitch. JJ did not bother to try to adjust until 2nd half.. No biggie though.. Not like I'm not used to the Eagles losing.. At least now I can shave off this rediculous beard... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunday Couch Potatoe Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Unlike the professional prognosticators at least we take a stand. For the record I'm going with the Eagles and Ravens in the SB. Good Call! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunday Couch Potatoe Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Lucky... cards gimick play and McNabb choking yet again in a big game.. Fitzgerald was the man though... Warner is a little bitch. JJ did not bother to try to adjust until 2nd half.. No biggie though.. Not like I'm not used to the Eagles losing.. At least now I can shave off this rediculous beard... Ha What makes Warner a little bitch cause he shoved 280 yds and 4 tds down ur throat choke on it chump!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Have a nice Off Season HaHaHa!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonedaddies Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Cardinals have NO shot.. Keep dreaming fellas. The intensity the Eagles are playing with is like no team's I have seen in the past. They have been to the NFC Championship 5 out of the last 10 years now. They know time is running out. I just don't see how they lose the game... So, there you go. I will be the bold one and say the game is never close. 31-17 Eagles Dude...please say that Pitt will kill the Cards!!! They have NO shot, dreaming or other shots are great.....keep them comin baby!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitzkek Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Ha What makes Warner a little bitch cause he shoved 280 yds and 4 tds down ur throat choke on it chump!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Have a nice Off Season HaHaHa!!!!!!! Give me some ideas on what to do during the offseason. I'm just getting started here and I don't know where to begin. You've been at it now for a month. What can I look forward too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scourge Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Dude...please say that Pitt will kill the Cards!!! They have NO shot, dreaming or other shots are great.....keep them comin baby!! Pittsburgh has NO SHOT... Keep dreaming fellas. The Cards played a great game. The offense was ahead of JJ's D that whole first half and that is what won the game for them. Great coaching by Az. Warner did what he had to do and in the end, the Eagles D who dominated that whole 2nd half could not stop them in that last drive. I will be rooting for the Cardinals in the Bowl. They deserve to win IMO. Should be a good Super Bowl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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