2008 Conference Championship Round Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

Since discussion started in the other thread, I'll paste it over here...

[Steeltown Dre]

Won on BAL and lost on CAR Saturday.

 

Yesterday, decided to go with a couple of teasers:

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Steelers(Pittsburgh) -0.5

SDC/PIT Over 31.5

 

6 Point Teaser (4 Teams)

Chargers(SanDiego) +12.5

SDC/PIT Over 31.5

Eagles(Philadelphia) +10

PHI/NYG Under 45

 

That Sproles TD worked out big-time for me, as I was able to hit the SDC/PIT teasers on both sides (both paired with the over). I wish I had had more time this past week to post... I felt pretty strongly the Over was the best play in the Pittsburgh game (and very sure of the 6-pt tease down to 31.5), but just didn't have much time to share my thoughts. In fact, I didn't even submit my wagers until right before kickoff of the early game yesterday, then added the 2nd teaser (including PIT to win) after the Eagles had pulled it out. I was extremely busy last week, but am on vacation for most of this week, so I've got more time to look at this stuff.

 

So far this week, here is what I have noticed...

 

BAL/PIT line went from 5.5 down to 5 last night, then up to 6 this morning. Meanwhile, I saw the PHI/ARI o/u at 48, and decided to play another 6-pt teaser. As I submit it, the o/u goes down to 47, so I got:

 

PIT (straight up)

PHI/ARI Over 41

 

Might post/play more as the week goes on (and as my feelings sway in one direction or another), or I might just stick with that. Not sure, but here are my thoughts.

 

BAL/PIT - Baltimore was pretty fortunate to beat Tennessee this weekend. The Titans basically gave them the ball four times in Baltimore territory. At least one of those was a "bad bounce" on which the INT was really not Collins' fault. Another was Lendale White getting creamed inside the 10 and losing the football. Two thoughts... First, I think the Pittsburgh RB's will do a much better job of protecting the football. They know the Ravens well, and will be ready for their tactics. If I was worried about any PIT offensive players holding on to the football, it might be their WR's (not Ward, but Holmes/Washington). Secondly, if you noticed yesterday, the Steelers are being VERY cautious with Big Ben. Not a lot of pass plays period, and particularly not if they don't NEED to pass. I look for more of the same next Sunday. A lot of Parker/Moore/Russell, and if that doesn't work, a lot of Heath Miller and Hines Ward, with a few big throws downfield to Holmes/Washington. I just don't see the Steelers taking a lot of chances.

 

On the Baltimore side, their offense really hasn't done much in these playoffs. They've scored just enough to win, and when they have scored, it's been the defense (or at least the defense creating turnovers, putting them in a position to score). Their running game has been somewhat mediocre. The one guy who has made big plays for them has been Mason, and a couple of those were very strange plays in which the defenders basically fell down. I look for Mason to be heavily involved once again this Sunday, but in an effort to keep the game close. In other words, the Ravens could very well be the ones playing catch-up this week, and I think they will once again have trouble establishing the run.

 

Pittsburgh does just enough to win, but I see it being another close game... In fact, I'm thinking about once again going with the teaser in each direction, as I have a hard time seeing the Steelers winning by 12 or more. In fact, if I were to wager on the actual line (which I'm not at this point), I think I would lean towards the Ravens and the six points. PIT 17 BAL 13.

 

PHI/ARI - Not much to say on this one. The Eagles destroyed the Cardinals on Turkey Day, in a game that started two streaks... The Eagles caught fire, while the Cards started their slide that almost caused them to take a Broncos-like dive and miss the playoffs. But, I don't think you can read too much into that game. These are two completely different football teams, relying more on their defense to win games than their offense, particularly in the first two weeks of the playoffs. Both QB's appear to be extremely confident right now, and this game comes down to two things, in my opinion... Turnovers (or lack of) and which team can effectively run move the football. In the case of the Eagles, it's not so much running the football that will help them in this game as it is "moving" the football. Whether they do it through running plays, short passes, or a combination of both, isn't really that important. But, if they struggle to get first downs, it's going to be a long day for Philly fans. I just don't see them winning this game if they can't sustain some fairly long drives, keeping the ball away from Warner and Fitzgerald. This isn't going to be a 13-10 game, so the Eagles can't expect to win it with their defense alone. They're going to have to move the ball, get first downs, keep the clock moving, and eventually put the ball in the end zone. Obviously, scoring 48 points, they did an excellent job of that the first time, but this is a different Cardinals defense.

 

As for the Cardinals, they have ran the football better in their two playoff games than they did during the entire regular season. I don't expect James or Hightower to have a 100-yard rushing day against the Eagles. But, I do think that it's important that they establish the run enough to soften the PHI secondary so that their WR's can make some big plays. We saw in the first matchup that, if the Cardinals try to simply abandon the run, and throw the ball all day, the Eagles will make them pay for it. I think it's critical in this game that the Cardinals run the ball just enough to keep the Eagles honest. Secondly, the Cardinals need to make a big play or two on defense... put pressure on McNabb, force a fumble, or force him to make throws that he does not feel comfortable making. He showed in the Giants game that his ugly side can reveal itself when pressured (on the play that ended with a safety). McNabb five years ago, when pressured, would use his legs to get out of trouble. McNabb today, when pressured, usually is prone to making mistakes.

 

Haven't figured out who I actually like in this game, but I'm fairly confident both teams will get into the 20's (Over 41).

 

Good luck.

[Steeltown Dre]

Gopher, i have to agree with a lot of what you said about the up coming Pitt / Balt game

My feeling is this is going to be a very low scoring affair ( assuming that no Def/ Special team points are scored )

the final score should be low, neither team getting in the end zone more than twice.

so i'm looking at score of

 

10- 9

17-13

16-10

17-16

20-10

maybe 20 - 17

 

that being said and the over under @ 33-1/2 right now , i believe that is the bet to take.

if playing a teaser you can get 40-1/2 & either Ravens + 13 or Stealer +1

[Gopher]

Dre, Thanks for doing my copying and pasting for me.

 

Lines haven't moved much in the past couple of days. Still liking the 6-pt teaser, with PIT winning straight up and the PHI/ARI over 41. However, I am considering the Baltimore side of the six points as well (BAL +12). If Baltimore keeps it close, however, I think it's going to be a low-scoring game, similar to the BAL-TEN slugfest last week. I just don't see Baltimore winning a 28-21 type of game. The defenses of both teams are by far the strongest sides, and barring a couple of defensive scores, I say both teams score less than 20. I think both defenses are going to basically attempt to will their respective team to victory, at whatever cost necessary. Look for more big hits, more players carted off the field, and probably more shenanigans after the whistle (similar to what we saw when Ed Reed basically tried to break Chris Johnson's back after the play). I just don't see this game getting to a double-digit deficit in either direction. Based on that, I'm putting in another 6-pt teaser with:

 

BAL +12

BAL/PIT Under 40

 

If Pittsburgh wins by less than 12, I have a very good shot at winning both bets.

 

The one component to this week's games that I am having a hard time with is the PHI -4. To be honest, If it was a pick'em game, it would be a tough call for me. With the Cards getting the four points, my gut tells me that they're the safe play, as I think they have a good shot at winning straight up. However, I think what is throwing me off is that I can easily see either team winning by double-digit points... Not necessarily a blowout, but an easy win. The Eagles won the first game easily (48-20), but as I mentioned in my post above, that was a game between two totally different teams than what we'll see on Sunday. Here are some reasons why I think that is the case:

 

- In that game, Arizona rushed for 25 yards (Arrington 2-10, Boldin 1-8, and Hightower 7-7). James didn't even play, and only ten team rushing attempts total. I think the Cardinals will attempt, and succeed, to at least run the ball more often, if not more effectively, in this game. James will be healthy, and it will be critical that they don't fall behind early, so that the running game is still an option. I think their defense is playing well enough to make sure this happens.

 

- The Eagles are on a tear since Thanksgiving, as far as wins and losses go. However, to say that their offense has been firing "on all cylinders" during that stretch would be far from the truth. At home, that may be the case... The Eagles dominated Cleveland and Dallas (30-10 and 44-6) in their two home games since the Arizona game, meaning that the average score in their last three HOME games was 41-12. On the road, however, it's been a different story. Since Turkey Day, the Eagles have beaten the NYG twice (20-14 and 23-11), lost to the Redskins 10-3, and beaten the Vikings 26-14 in a game in which they scored their only two TD's on an interception return and a 71-yard Westbrook reception... leading me to my next point.

 

- Brian Westbrook - In the Minnesota game, the 71-yard TD reception accounted for all but 12 of Westbrook's receiving yards and well over 50% of his total yards for the game. In fact, throw out that play, and Westbrook had 20 carries and two catches for 50 total yards. Against the Giants last week, Westbrook had 18 carries for 36 yards and 2 receptions for 10 yards... less than 50 yards total. Back in week 13 against the Cardinals, Westbrook had 22 carries for 110 yards, 3 catches for another 20 yards, and FOUR total TD's. Basically, the Eagles need a big day from Westbrook in order to win this week... at least bigger than they've gotten from him the past two weeks.

 

- The REAL reason for the Eagles run, prior to and during the playoffs, has been their defense. The defensive unit as a whole is playing very inspired football... They haven't given up more than 14 points SINCE the Cardinals game. If they hold Warner and company to 20 or less again this week, I think they win the football game (and they're playing a lot better football now than they were then).

 

- The Cardinals defense - Just like the Eagles, the Arizona defensive unit is playing very well right now as well. The surprising thing for them, though, is that there was nothing at the end of the regular season that would have indicated that this was the case. They ended the regular season getting not only blown out on the road against New England, but also at home against the Vikings in a game in which their defense was exploited numerous times by the Minnesota PASSING game. In the two playoff games, however, the defense has not only avoided giving up big plays, but also created a shorter field for the offense on numerous occasions, by forcing turnovers. This has made life easy for Warner and the offense, which has plenty of fire-power with or without the field-position advantage.

 

Bottom line... I can't get a handle on this game. The Cardinals are playing great on both sides of the ball. The offense is about as well-balanced as they have been all year, and the defense is making plays. For the Eagles, I think we know that the defense will come to play. But, will it be enough against the high-powered Cardinals offense? Will McNabb and the offense be able to move AND protect the ball, or will they struggle like they have all season on the road? And, most importantly, how much will Westbrook factor into the game... Will the Cardinals be able to hold him in check? Likewise, what will the Eagles do to stop Fitzgerald? Other than the two QB's, I think it's quite clear that Westbrook and Fitzgerald are the two key players to watch in this matchup.

 

After considering everything involved, I'm leaning towards the Cardinals and the points in this game, but not leaning far enough to make a play at this point.

 

Good luck!

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

For those that are involved in our thread i'm offering you to get into my office pool.

Paypal only sent to Tom@sanjoseboiler.com e-mail me the sq #'s or post here.

 

Total payout

 

20% 1st

20% 2nd

20% 3rd

20% 4th

20% Final

 

So if the game goes into overtime there will be 5 payouts

No overtime there will be 4 payouts with the final receiving 40%

 

$10.00 pool http://numsum.com/spreadsheet/show/58380

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

so far two teasers placed

#1

 

Pick: Over 40 (Pending)

Score: Philadelphia Eagles

Arizona Cardinals

01/18/2009 2:00 PM

¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯

Pick: +13 Baltimore Ravens (Pending)

Score: Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers

01/18/2009 5:30 PM

 

#2

 

Pick: +13 Baltimore Ravens (Pending)

Score: Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers

01/18/2009 5:30 PM

¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯

Pick: Under 40.5 (Pending)

Score: Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers

01/18/2009 5:30 PM

[sunysteelfly76]

I know I'm going to sound like and idiot but I have to ask. What is a teaser?

[Gopher]

For what it's worth, I don't think you can put a whole lot of emphasis on trends in the PHI/ARI game... In other words, how teams typically do in this round of the playoffs, how a team does when they're the road favorite the week after being the road dog, etc.... Doesn't matter. You can certainly consider all of those factors, but I wouldn't rely too heavily on any of them going into a game between the Cardinals (who have never been there before) and the Eagles, who have a tendency to do the opposite of what is normally expected of them. In other words, the Eagles overachieve when nobody gives them a chance, and sputter when they're favored to do something. The problem in this game is that they're a combination of both... Not expected to do anything in the playoffs as a whole, but now they're suddenly the favorite. This game is more about matchups, and how these teams will be able to exploit each other, on both sides of the ball, than it is about meaningless trends. After all, this is the season of the unexpected, where everything that couldn't happen does, and has.

[Gopher]

I know I'm going to sound like and idiot but I have to ask. What is a teaser?

Basically, you buy points, but in certain set amounts, and for multiple games under one bet. For football, standard is 6, 6.5, and 7 points (and sometimes 10). In basketball, I think it's 4, 4.5, and 5 points.

 

So, for the BAL/PIT game, for example, I may be leaning towards Pittsburgh winning and the game being low-scoring. However, let's say I'm not quite confident enough about it to lay the six points (that Pittsburgh is favored by) or the Under 34 (what the O/U is currently. I can combine the two bets in a 6-point teaser... meaning Pittsburgh just has to win (6 - 6 = 0) and the total just has to be less than 40 (34 + 6 = 40).

 

You can do as many components as you like in a teaser, so I could include Arizona to lose by less than 10 (line is +4... once again add the 6), but as much as it seems like it would be easy, teasers are named as such for a reason... much harder than meets the eye. They're considered by many to be "sucker bets" because they're very appealing, yet tricky to pull off. The more components or games that you add, obviously, the lower the odds become of winning, and the higher the potential payout becomes.

 

I've learned the hard way that you're best off playing straight wagers most of the time. Teasers are not much easier to pull off than parlays (just combining multiple straight wagers). That said, if you pick them right and don't get too greedy (stick to the 2- or 3-team teasers instead of 4 or 5), they can be profitable.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

adding two more

 

Pick: Over 46.5 (Pending)

Score: Philadelphia Eagles

Arizona Cardinals

01/18/2009 2:00 PM

 

Note: .5 point(s) bought (-110 per 1/2 point)

Over/Under has been adjusted

 

Pick: Under 34.5 (Pending)

Score: Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers

01/18/2009 5:30 PM

 

Note: .5 point(s) bought (-110 per 1/2 point)

Over/Under has been adjusted

[rattsass]

Look guys, this is the NFL. The Giants knocked off the freaking Patriots last year. That, and last week's bizarre roadie win festival has changed my whole way of thinking about things. And the Cardinals winning the Super Bowl is about the most ridiculous proposition any of us could have imagined.

 

Everything I know about the NFL tells me that an 8-8 or 9-7 team isn't going to win a Super Bowl, but at this point I am willing to accept the most ludicrous hook the league has to offer up. People are offering excuses for the Cardinals being where they are right now, but the truth is they dominated one of the best teams in the league last week. I don't think what I saw was an illusion. In the past I have tried to close my eyes to such Cinderella stories and have gotten sucked into the losing whirlpool.

 

The Eagles beat the Giants, yeah, but that is a team in their division without their star receiver. And they beat the Vikings. I think I actually like the Cardinals post season resume better than the Eagles, especially considering the way the Cardinals mauled both opponents.

 

I'm jumping onboard. Definitely considering that 5-1 SB win futures play. Definitely looking at the Az ML. And definitely waiting until the line has been pushed as far as it will push before making a play of any kind.

 

As much as I envisioned the Ravens making a run before they beat the Titans, I just can't roll with them this week. That defense is on its last legs. They might hang for 2-3 quarters with the Steelers, but the fresher bodies will prevail in what figures to be a war. Not really wild about the big number here, but it probably won't make a difference as I see Pittsburgh pulling away late once the Ravens D is exhausted.

 

Plays will be

 

AZ +?

AZ ML

Pitts -6 .....I think. Maybe not.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Rattsass i'm seeing + 170 & -200 on the ML for the Philly / AZ what are you seeing ?

 

Also for those who are regulars if you need a hook up my guy is looking for more players.

He strictly uses http://www.betjamaica.com/default.aspx?P=20000&S=20000 for lines

[rattsass]

Rattsass i'm seeing + 170 & -200 on the ML for the Philly / AZ what are you seeing ?

 

Also for those who are regulars if you need a hook up my guy is looking for more players.

He strictly uses http://www.betjamaica.com/default.aspx?P=20000&S=20000 for lines

Yes, that is what I have also.

[whomper]

I wish I could join the fun but I am in gamblers pay off plan purgatory. Dre' How are you doing in the playoffs ?

[xMRogers]

Back to back 2-2's have me feeling relatively ok with things as I was sucked in on the Indy and Caroina "c'mon, they have to win right" bandwagons, so feel that other than that I have a decnet handle on the teams.

 

The more the week goes on and I've looked and read things - the more I'm confident Philly rolls AZ. AZ has a huge home/road disparity, but is simply worse in almost every phase of the game than Philly. Yes, their defense seems to be doing better, but I almost throw out the Carolina showing due to the comical performance by Delhomme making any analysis about meaningless. Not saying we'll go for 40....but we'll hit 30+. More importantly, the defense is just getting better and better and is itching for a game like this to prove that whoever they face in the SB, they better not be an afterthought as while Bal and Pit were 1-2, Philly was 3 and deserves a lot of mention for the defense. I got them early at 3, and may lay some more at 4.

 

Pitt-Bal - hate the number, but anything under a TD I'm going with the team I think will win and that's Pitt. Combination of a lot of reasons, both statistically and trend based, but end of the day they are simply the better, more complete team and should win.

 

I strangely like the over in both games although the three top defenses in the league will be playing .... due to the strangeness, probalby won't do much with that.

[Steeltown Dre]

I wish I could join the fun but I am in gamblers pay off plan purgatory. Dre' How are you doing in the playoffs ?

 

Had an outstanding WC and a bad Div. Two of my 3 plays were tied to Carolina by at least 2.5, so obviously got destroyed by Delhomme.

 

By the way, did you guys see Stu's video about it? Great stuff. He had a first ever 10,000 Dime play on the Panthers, which cost $350 to buy that one single play.

 

http://www.stufeiner.com/VideoLibrary/Vide...e-And-Jeff.aspx

[xMRogers]

By the way, did you guys see Stu's video about it? Great stuff. He had a first ever 10,000 Dime play on the Panthers, which cost $350 to buy that one single play.

 

http://www.stufeiner.com/VideoLibrary/Vide...e-And-Jeff.aspx

 

That's hilarious - thought he was going to have a heart attack once he got to Fisher. I paused it...kept going - he REALLY hated Fisher and Delhomme - couldn't stop going back to them...

Edited January 17, 2009 by xMRogers

[i_am_the_swammi]

Missed posting last week, but as an Eagle fan that almost always goes with the birds, I can say it was a very profitable weekend on all accounts. But since they were't posted, I will have to just continue my 13-4-1 spread run without last weeks stats included.

 

This weekend, the AFC game is giving me fits, but the more I look at the line, the more it begs to take the Steeler giving the points. This rivalry has been hard-hitting, close-knit games for the two 2008 tilts. No reason to expect otherwise, huh? Everything points to the Ravens keeping this game close, and a FG deciding the outcome...but I don't see it. I think this is finally the game where Flacco's youth comes thru, and the conservative playcalling catches up with the Ravens. The Ravens were very fortunate the Titans turned the ball over frequently last week, multiple times in the red-zone. That won't happen this week, and if the Steelers can convert those similar chances into 7-10 points, this game will likely be over by the start of the 4th quarter.

 

I like the Steelers in an easy win.....23-10 looks right.

 

Large wager on PIT -6.

Tease the Steelers (-6) and the over (27).

 

In the NFC tilt, my homer glasses are sparkling clear....there is no reason to think this game will be competitive, unless McNabb turns the ball over, Westbrook is ineffective, and the Eagles defense just doesn't show up. Perhaps one of those things happens, but not all three. While the Cards are a nice feel-good story, and have played well in these playoffs, they are the same team that everyone chided as playing in a weak NFC West. And the Eagles are the same team that made the playoffs in the toughest division in football, learning some hard lessons along the way. Nothing's changed.

 

They are this year's team of destiny. They have nothing to lose. And they won't.

 

Eagles 27, Cardinals 17.

 

Large wager on the Eagles -4.

Small wager on the under (47.5).

Small parlay Eagles & under.

 

Good luck!

[i_am_the_swammi]

PS...

 

PM me if anyone likes the opposite of my above posted plays and wants to eliminate the juice.

[rattsass]

PS...

 

PM me if anyone likes the opposite of my above posted plays and wants to eliminate the juice.

I went ahead and locked in yesterday at +4. Looked like momentum was heading the Cards way (as all of the sharps that bought in at Phil -3 covered their asses at Az+4 - just guessing about that).

 

That 2/1 deal I offered you on the ML would have turned out only to benefit me - better number for you now on that one. So I guess we won't be doing business. Sorry about that, I panicked that it might go back down to 3.5 so I bought at 4. Az got more play than I expected. I'd rather lift it out of my local's pocket than yours anyway. He pissed me off by clipping me on the Cards futures play. Shaved me to 4.5/1. So I hit him for an extra unit just for spite.

Edited January 18, 2009 by rattsass

[i_am_the_swammi]

I'd rather lift it out of my local's pocket than yours anyway.

 

[rattsass]

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

3 - 1 on posted plays this weekend

[xMRogers]

3-1, but the one was the doozy...

 

so I already got the Steelers at -6 (bought half point off 6.5, as it swung back and forth a bunch today on my site). my only question is if it gets to 7.5 at anytime, do I almost have to buy it to 8 for az as 6 to 8 pts is a heck of a window to have....

[i_am_the_swammi]

 

Like I said, you could have saved me some juice!

 

2-2 on posted plays, to bring the recent run to 15-6-1. Since the 1st week in December.