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My annual lock for the superbowl pick


polksalet
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As alot of the oldtimers know I am death on picking super bowl winners. In fact I have only missed one since 1990 and that was the Rams win and it cas close. In super bowls both teams are always good on both sides of the ball. The team that runs the best out of the I normally wins and normally this is the team that also stops the run. In this year's matchup these differences are more exaggerated than any game I have predicted. The Steelers run the ball better out of the I and with an empty backfield. In fact they run the ball better under every situation. On D, well this is one of the better statistical defenses of all time. When you pair Pitt's interior D line against AZ marginal oline and simply poor running backs the Steelers dominate this as well.

 

Now comes AZ's only real strength. AZ has one of the best passing attacks and likely the best wr in the game. But when this is all they can do on O because of their putrid running game and their inability to keep Pitt's O off the field this will not keep them in the game.

 

Pitt by at least 10 and it could turn out to be a 42-10 type affair.

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werd - thing is, this game won't be taking place on a frozen Heinz field..........

 

Cards get a nice, warm fast track in Tampa - Boldin gets 2 weeks to heal AND get his head right - Az has a nice shot to win this baby -

 

Warner has shown he can pick apart blitzes nicely- and with all those weapons on the outside - I just don't know how much they can really be stopped right now.

 

ETA: There has to be some Karma-type payback from the last Stealer's SB Win, doesn't there?

 

Polk- you had the NYG winning last year?

Edited by wildcat2334
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Don't rule out Arizona.They put 32 on an arguably better defensive squad then they'll face in the Super Bowl. The key to this game will be if Pittsburgh's front 7 can put pressure on Kurt. If they can't there is no way Pittsburgh's offense can put up enough points to stay with Arizona.

 

Arizona 27

Pittsburgh 24

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Don't rule out Arizona.They put 32 on an arguably better defensive squad then they'll face in the Super Bowl.

 

How can you say Philly's defense was better than Pittsburgh's #1 ranked D? I think the real key to this game is how well FWP runs. If the Steelers can run the ball and keep the high flying Cards O off the field, then that spells big trouble for Zona. I'm a Steeler homer and I'm certainly not ruling out Zona. Any team that makes it this far simply can not be overlooked. If the Steelers weren't in this game I'd be rooting for Zona and/or a good game. But as it is, I'm hoping for a Steelers blowout but I don't think that happens.

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How can you say Philly's defense was better than Pittsburgh's #1 ranked D? I think the real key to this game is how well FWP runs. If the Steelers can run the ball and keep the high flying Cards O off the field, then that spells big trouble for Zona. I'm a Steeler homer and I'm certainly not ruling out Zona. Any team that makes it this far simply can not be overlooked. If the Steelers weren't in this game I'd be rooting for Zona and/or a good game. But as it is, I'm hoping for a Steelers blowout but I don't think that happens.

 

what would scare me...and I am a steeler fan from my youth, but am a bears homer...is what Arizone did to Atlanta and Burner Turner and to Carolina and Williams and Stewart. They shut down the run....and got pressure on the QB. They also stifled Westbrook...who last I checked was pretty damn good. All those backs had lines either better or equal to Pittsburghs. I say FWP will be stopped on the ground....I think for Pittsburgh to win...Mewelde Moore will have to have a hugh game catching balls out of the backfield....I say Arizona wins given the type of offenses they have stopped the last three weeks.

 

Pitt can win if Roethlisberger makes plays outside the pocket...JMHO.

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werd - thing is, this game won't be taking place on a frozen Heinz field..........

 

Cards get a nice, warm fast track in Tampa - Boldin gets 2 weeks to heal AND get his head right - Az has a nice shot to win this baby -

 

Warner has shown he can pick apart blitzes nicely- and with all those weapons on the outside - I just don't know how much they can really be stopped right now.

 

ETA: There has to be some Karma-type payback from the last Stealer's SB Win, doesn't there?

 

Polk- you had the NYG winning last year?

 

absolutely, i also got the Pats vs. Rams game right. Im not guaranteeting I am right but an 18-1 record is impressive. In paraphrasing Larry John, "this is a simple game".

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absolutely, i also got the Pats vs. Rams game right. Im not guaranteeting I am right but an 18-1 record is impressive. In paraphrasing Larry John, "this is a simple game".

 

I hope you're right Polk. I would love to have a comfortable Steelers win in the SB

 

SB XL- 21-10 11 point win but much closer than the score indicated. I'm LEAVing out the obvious

 

SB XIV- 31-19 12 point win, but once again game was closer than the score indicated. Stallworth scoring late helped alleviate the stress.

 

SB XIII- 35-31, but wasn't as close as the score indicated. Probably the most comfortable I've ever felt in all the Steelers SBs

 

SB X- 21-17 very close game and if it weren't for Jackie Smith dropping a sure fire TD, this could have been a loss

 

SB IX- 16-6 Defensive struggle and the fact that it was the Steelers 1st SB made me very nervous. The Vikes had a pretty good D also. I still own an old faded t-shirt from this game.

 

SB XXX- 27-17L Steelers held the Boys down pretty well in the first half and made a valiant comeback. With the score 20-17 and the offense finally moving the ball well, the unthinkable happened. O'Donnell, usually very good at not throwing picks does just that and the game is over. BTW, I think O'Donnell got a bum rap on that throw as I believe it was the reciever who cut inside instead of outside. The Boys got their revenge and I was sick over the fact that the Steelers were no longer undefeated in SBs. That distinction still belongs to the 49ers.

 

Oh, BTW, not that it matters, but I lived in Pittsburgh during the glory years of the first 4 SBs. Fun times indeed!

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Hate to tell you guys but Zona is at top form right know and Pitt looks to be just getting by. If the Ravens can score in just a run style offense the Cards will for sure put numbers up on them.

 

Pitt"s Offense is not that explosive they do not have any big time playmakers except for Big Ben double up on Hines and or Holmes (Man- zone over the top) and we have them. Plus the game is in a warm weather stadium another plus for Arizona.

 

This game will be alot closer then most people think.

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As alot of the oldtimers know I am death on picking super bowl winners. In fact I have only missed one since 1990 and that was the Rams win and it cas close. In super bowls both teams are always good on both sides of the ball. The team that runs the best out of the I normally wins and normally this is the team that also stops the run. In this year's matchup these differences are more exaggerated than any game I have predicted. The Steelers run the ball better out of the I and with an empty backfield. In fact they run the ball better under every situation. On D, well this is one of the better statistical defenses of all time. When you pair Pitt's interior D line against AZ marginal oline and simply poor running backs the Steelers dominate this as well.

 

Now comes AZ's only real strength. AZ has one of the best passing attacks and likely the best wr in the game. But when this is all they can do on O because of their putrid running game and their inability to keep Pitt's O off the field this will not keep them in the game.

 

Pitt by at least 10 and it could turn out to be a 42-10 type affair.

Oddly enough, the last time you were wrong was when Kurt Warner was the QB. Will history repeat?

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Polky is usually right, but I just don't see it here. The AZ D has been stopping better offensive teams than the Steelers. And Warner is not gonna be confused by blitzes, he might even make Pittsburgh pay for blitzing him. The Ravens kept it close with nary a bit of passing.

 

I can see the Steelers winning, but not in a blowout. But I actually think the Cards win. :wacko:

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One thing I look at is Pitt put up 23 against Baltimore, so that's gotta be worth what, 35 against AZ regardless of how they got it. AZ put up 32 against a ridiculously terrible performance by the Eagles D, so best case I'll give them 24 against Pitt

 

Think the Pitt pick is a good one, and believe the over is also definitely coming in...

 

Going back over my betting on the SB with the year of the game

 

2008 - wrong (Pats)

2007 - wrong (Bears)

2006 - wrong (Seahawks)

2005 - right (Eagles)

2004 - wrong (Patriots)

2003 - wrong (Raiders)

2002 - right (Patriots)

2001 - right (Ravens)

2000 - push (Rams)

1999 - wrong (Falcons)

1998 - wrong (Packers)

 

Now, the Falcons, Ravens, Raiders and Eagles bets were all somewhat biased at the time (Falcons i had season tix to at the time, Eagles is evident, Raiders was a "I can't believe the Eagles aren't there and I'm not thinking straight" and Ravens I had a 50 to 1 ticket from before the season on them so was somewhat already going that way, although did like it at the time as well) So, I think if you take all that into account, I'm due....

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Oddly enough, the last time you were wrong was when Kurt Warner was the QB. Will history repeat?

 

Yeah I thought about that but his rb/wr/outlet/stud #28 was a little dab batter than Hightower :wacko:

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I'll give you that. I love Warner though and I'm totally rooting for AZ. If I were to bet, however, I'd probably bet on PIT.

 

I bet I can get you gambling by the end of the week.

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