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2008 Super Bowl Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

I see from last week's thread a couple 3-1s, a 2-2, and a Gopher 6-1. Nice job guys. One final weekend to enjoy the 08 football season before the long offseason. This game looks to be a classic offense/defense battle and one in which you can make many arguments for or against each team.

 

One thing I will surely be checking out, in addition to sides/totals/teasers is prop bets. Feel free to post any lines and discuss. Good luck!

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I didn't post last week, but I pulled off a 4-0 day. Started the day with a prop (Cards score first) to get things going, then cashed in on the Cards at +170, and also won with the Steelers (-6). Then I had a parlay (Over in the AZ/Phi game, Cards +4.5, Steelers over 20). Needless to say, Polamalu's TD was HUGH for me. I had just told my brother (who was up for a visit & doesn't bet) that my only hope was a Steeler Def TD...and Ka-Boom. It was a lot of fun, now I'm up 40% on my bankroll for the playoffs and ready to roll! (or get sent packing...but either way, I'm happy to have some $$$ to bet on the big one).

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Already parlayed ARI +7 and the over (46.5). Will probably tease this as well (+13 and over 40.5) just to be "safe." Might also do the +7 and the over separately as straight wagers, but I'm pretty confident in both of them. No way Arizona doesn't score some points in this game, and I think Pittsburgh will be able to do the same. Might even put down a small wager on the ARI money line as well.

Edited by Gopher
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I'm on the Steelers -6 at this point, and if it goes to 7.5 at all, may go Cards +8 to try for the elusive middle.

 

The ML is a bit odd as a 7pt dog on the ML is usually at least 240 if not a bit more. To only be in the 210 to 220 range tells me something, although may just be a reaction to last years losses by Vegas.

 

Like to over as well as the Steelers

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Already parlayed ARI +7 and the over (46.5). Will probably tease this as well (+13 and over 40.5) just to be "safe." Might also do the +7 and the over separately as straight wagers, but I'm pretty confident in both of them. No way Arizona doesn't score some points in this game, and I think Philly will be able to do the same. Might even put down a small wager on the ARI money line as well.

 

 

LOL ,, that game was last week

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The ML is a bit odd as a 7pt dog on the ML is usually at least 240 if not a bit more. To only be in the 210 to 220 range tells me something, although may just be a reaction to last years losses by Vegas.

 

You have got that right, in addition to the fact that Arizona has been an dog each game in the playoffs and won each game by no fewer than 6 points.

 

Wanted to share some research I did on kickoff props:

 

My numbers show the Cards have deferred 6 times this season and accepted the kickoff 4 times. When winning the toss on the road, they have deferred all 3 times. The 4 times they accepted the kickoff were all home games. The last 4 toss "wins", the Cards have accepted the kick 3 times.

 

The Steelers have deferred 8 times and accepted 3 times, and 2 of the 3 times they accepted the kickoff were on the road. The last 4 toss "wins", the Steelers have deferred all 4 times.

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If anyone cares, here's the coin toss results last 7 years (and my result as this has become a traditional bet for me):

 

2008 Tails Win

2007 Heads Win

2006 Heads Loss

2005 Tails Win

2004 Heads Loss

2003 Heads Loss

2002 Tails Loss

 

 

Little pattern developing that would point to heads this year....but patterns are meant to be broken....

 

I've lost 5 of the last 6 SB picks, only winning the Eagles against the Pats (and even that sucked since they lost). Think I'm just going to be sticking with my Steelers -6, a parlay with the over, then some 1st TD props (always take the QB's - that one by big ben really paid off) and a few randoms

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The other thing I wanted to mention RE: ML bets is this:

 

In the SB, so much "casual" money is wagered (as you know) but much of the underdog money is wagered directly on the ML. Many of the casual bettors don't care that they will get $100 on a $110 bet to get the dog + points, they would rather lay $40 and walk away with $110+ to take the underdog on the ML.

 

For this reason, betting the dog on the ML in the SB is a much lower value than it should be, and therefore, betting the favorite on the ML gives you better value than it otherwise would during the regular season.

 

Which is why there are is a strategy to take the fav ML and dog + points. When Indy won 2 years ago, I took them in the CC round to win the SB and was able to get +150 odds on them. I took the Chi+ points for a lesser amount in hope to middle but lost that, but still walked away up. Last year I took NE ML and we all know how that turned out. Still, if you like the fav, taking them ML and dog + points is usually a good hedge move with value on both sides.

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I'm not a big sports gambler (usually just on the SB). However, since I was in Vegas preseason I wanted to throw a small bet on a couple of teams that I felt had a shot but wasn't necessarily the favorites at the time (i.e. New England and Dallas). I throw $25 on Pitt and New Orleans.

 

Got Pitt at 14-1. So I'm looking at $350 if they win. Now comes my question.

 

Even though I believe Pittsburgh will win I thought about selling the slip to a Steelers fan for something close to the current odds (I have no idea what they are but figure you'd have to bet at least $200 to win $150). Then I thought maybe it's better to just place a bet on the Cardinals for $150 taking the points. If the Steelers win, great I still get my $200 I was looking for out of the betting slip. If the Cardinals win, I win $150. And the potential bonus is if the Cardinals cover but Pittsburgh wins, I get the $350 and the $150.

 

Am I missing something here :wacko:

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I'm not a big sports gambler (usually just on the SB). However, since I was in Vegas preseason I wanted to throw a small bet on a couple of teams that I felt had a shot but wasn't necessarily the favorites at the time (i.e. New England and Dallas). I throw $25 on Pitt and New Orleans.

 

Got Pitt at 14-1. So I'm looking at $350 if they win. Now comes my question.

 

Even though I believe Pittsburgh will win I thought about selling the slip to a Steelers fan for something close to the current odds (I have no idea what they are but figure you'd have to bet at least $200 to win $150). Then I thought maybe it's better to just place a bet on the Cardinals for $150 taking the points. If the Steelers win, great I still get my $200 I was looking for out of the betting slip. If the Cardinals win, I win $150. And the potential bonus is if the Cardinals cover but Pittsburgh wins, I get the $350 and the $150.

 

Am I missing something here :wacko:

 

Steelers ML ranging from -240 to -260. Say -250 avg. So to win $350, you would have to place $875.

 

You really are not going to see a way to get that kind of money by hedging on your ticket. Even if you sold it for 2:1 ($700) that is a deal for any Pit ML fan and you are going to make $650 on that (sub out Pit $25 and NO $25), which is much more than any of your scenarios.

 

If selling the slip is not an option, then you have to look at hedging. But if you have someone who wants a ML bet on the Steelers "to win" $350, try to get him to pay the -250 odds (2.5:1), and if not, work your way down from there, but you should be able to get at least -225 (2.25:1) for it. Then you watch the game w/ no stress and no worries about trying to middle to get $500, when you are already getting between $787 and $875 if you get between -225 and -250 for the slip. Smart wager, congrats, and good luck selling it!

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Being that i'm way up threw out the playoffs. instead of making several teasers along with totals and halfs

i believe i'm just going to make one wager, risking only 25% of what i'm up on a longer odd wager.

 

right now i'm on @ AZ -3.5 for + 330

 

though being the addict i am as the game draws closer & knowing its the last game of the year ( not counting the pro bowl )

i most likely with be adding a few more

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I don't play money lines too frequently, and understand the SB isn't a good case study on how to employ strategy with them, but do those who play them with frequency use them solely for hedging? or is there some angle you have with the figures? What do you look for?

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I don't play money lines too frequently, and understand the SB isn't a good case study on how to employ strategy with them, but do those who play them with frequency use them solely for hedging? or is there some angle you have with the figures? What do you look for?

 

If you are a "long term" investor, you need to approach ML looking for value. In other words, know what a typical ML to spread equivalent should be, and know when you have or do not have value. Here is a good guide. I posted it (but did not author) before the NE/Phi SB:

 

Super Bowl Betting Tips - Moneyline vs Spread

 

With nearly two weeks until the Super Bowl, bettors have plenty of time to decide which team they like in the championship game. During this period, you should not only study how the teams match-up, but also how to maximize your earning potential on the big game.

 

If you like a particular team in a match-up, you should decide whether to bet the spread or the moneyline. To decide which line offers better value, you need a “moneyline to spread” conversion chart. Most linesmakers have made one of these charts by tallying wins and losses for favorites of different spreads. You can make your own chart by looking at games at each spread, and comparing the wins versus losses. The ML for a favorite at a given spread is (-100 * wins / losses).

 

You can create a database to make a conversion chart, or use this basic moneyline to spread conversion chart for ease of reference:

 

Spread No-Vig Moneyline

 

-1 -107/+107

-2 -115/+115

-3 -145/+145

-4 -180/+180

-5 -210/+210

-6 -240/+240

-7 -290/+290

-8 -320/+320

-9 -360/+360

-10 -400/+400

 

This chart is just a general guideline. To gain more power, generate your own conversion charts for home/away, and high/low totals. In general, home teams do slightly better at any given spread. You’ll also find that as the totals decrease, the moneyline for a given spread increases. So a 7-point favorite in a game with a total of 30 might be -330 (instead of -280 for a typical game with a 42.5 total).

 

Sometimes you’ll find a spread and moneyline that really don’t coincide and this is often the case in the Super Bowl. In last year’s game between New England and Philadelphia, the Patriots were 7-point favorites and -230 favorites on the moneyline. For this match-up, you’d normally expect the no-vig moneyline to be about -290. In this case, public betting caused an inaccurate conversion.

 

The public tends to bet the underdog on the moneyline and the favorite on the spread. These two tendencies combine to force the spread and moneyline out of alignment. Whether this is the result of public betting or a linesman sleeping on the job, alert players can profit as there are many ways to benefit in these situations.

 

If you’re certain one of the lines is off, but not sure which, many professionals play “the middle” by betting on both the moneyline favorite and the underdog on the spread. In the last two Super Bowls, sharp bettors have profited by simply fading the public. In last year’s Super Bowl, wise guys “middled” the game by making the following bets:

 

$1150 to win $1000 on Philadelphia Eagles +7.5

$1498 to win $652 on New England moneyline

 

In this case the middle paid off as New England won by 3 points, paying sharp bettors on both the moneyline and the spread. If the Patriots had won by more than 7 (or if the Eagles won), the bets would have had a combined net loss of $498. These bets in combination are giving you 3.3 to 1 odds on the prop “Will the Patriots win by 1-7?” when the fair odds would be closer to 2.6 to 1. The gap between 3.3:1 and 2.6:1 is the overlay caused by public bettors.

 

As you can see, although the Steelers are -6.5 to -7, they are -235 to -260 on the ML. That's the type of number you should get if the Steelers were -6. Similarly, the Cards are +6.5 or +7, but are +195 to +220, which is the ML for a 4.5 to 5.5 point underdog. So even if you like Ari on the ML, you have lost a lot of value, and you'd be wise to find some creative props to regain that value.

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Well, for the record, I have two bets. Both parlays.

 

-Arizona (ML +220) and Game total over 43.5 (bought 3.5 pts)

 

-Arizona (+10.5) and and Game total over 43.5 (bought 3.5 pts) <<if only this one comes in, i'll about break even on both wagers>>

 

Plan to do a few props as well, haven't gotten that far yet...

 

Good luck to all!

Edited by CowboysDiehard
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So far, I threw small cash on all 4 of these rather than the ARZ moneyline.

 

* Arizona to win 6-10 +750 Click here to bet on Arizona to win 6-10

* Arizona to win 11-15 +1200 Click here to bet on Arizona to win 11-15

* Arizona to win 16-20 +2000 Click here to bet on Arizona to win 16-20

* Arizona to win 21-25 +3300 Click here to bet on Arizona to win 21-25

 

I'm not IN on the game yet...Good luck guys.

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So far, I threw small cash on all 4 of these rather than the ARZ moneyline.

 

* Arizona to win 6-10 +750 Click here to bet on Arizona to win 6-10

* Arizona to win 11-15 +1200 Click here to bet on Arizona to win 11-15

* Arizona to win 16-20 +2000 Click here to bet on Arizona to win 16-20

* Arizona to win 21-25 +3300 Click here to bet on Arizona to win 21-25

 

I'm not IN on the game yet...Good luck guys.

That is an interesting strategy there. In the unlikely event of a Cards blowout you would come out smelling like a rose.

 

I am still only dialed in with the Cards +7, and still have that futures bet pending at 4 1/2 to 1.

 

Being in the position I am in with that futures bet, I considered hedging in some fashion but decided my hedge would be to just take the Cards plus the points for the same amount as my futures bet.

 

I think the Cards win this straight up, so I do not feel inclined at all to water down my plays with hedges. If I do anything else it will be a play on Az. (the one listed by Navin looks tempting) If the ship goes down, I'll be standing on the bow giving salute.

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If anyone cares, here's the coin toss results last 7 years (and my result as this has become a traditional bet for me):

 

2008 Tails Win

2007 Heads Win

2006 Heads Loss

2005 Tails Win

2004 Heads Loss

2003 Heads Loss

2002 Tails Loss

 

 

Little pattern developing that would point to heads this year....but patterns are meant to be broken....

 

you do realize there is no "pattern" with a coin toss right? each toss is 50/50 - independent of other tosses.

 

I should know, in my younger days lost quite a bit of dough playing the red/black on roulette whenever a streak or "pattern" developed :wacko:

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you do realize there is no "pattern" with a coin toss right? each toss is 50/50 - independent of other tosses.

 

I should know, in my younger days lost quite a bit of dough playing the red/black on roulette whenever a streak or "pattern" developed :D

 

:D

So true. The best thing the casinos ever did for them selves was installing those boards above the roulette wheel. Unbelievable how many people study that thing and make bets accordingly. :wacko:

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