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2008 Super Bowl Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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you do realize there is no "pattern" with a coin toss right? each toss is 50/50 - independent of other tosses.

 

I should know, in my younger days lost quite a bit of dough playing the red/black on roulette whenever a streak or "pattern" developed :wacko:

 

Dang...so much for seeing if the result was based on whether the ref was left or right handed...

 

/back to the drawing board

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you do realize there is no "pattern" with a coin toss right? each toss is 50/50 - independent of other tosses.

 

I should know, in my younger days lost quite a bit of dough playing the red/black on roulette whenever a streak or "pattern" developed :D

 

 

:wacko: odds & law of probability are often confused

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Being that i'm way up threw out the playoffs. instead of making several teasers along with totals and halfs

i believe i'm just going to make one wager, risking only 25% of what i'm up on a longer odd wager.

 

right now i'm on @ AZ -3.5 for + 330

 

though being the addict i am as the game draws closer & knowing its the last game of the year ( not counting the pro bowl )

i most likely with be adding a few more

 

just added AZ + 7-1/2 ( bought 1/2 point )

 

also added 2-team teaser

AZ + 14

Over 39.5

Edited by MustOfBeenDrunk
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Found one prop i like @ -120

Heath Miller over 3.5 receptions

 

This is one of the props I am playing, though it is not my favorite of the bunch, I do like it. Here is the write-up I posted earlier this week:

 

Heath Miller Over 3 ½ pass receptions: Yes (+100 The Greek)

 

Miller is the 2nd leading receiver in the postseason for the Steelers, 1 catch behind #1 Hines Ward. With Ward playing through his pain, there is a strong chance that Miller could be more of a go-to outlet for Ben, so long as Arizona’s pass rush does not overwhelm the Steelers (forcing Arians to use Miller as more of a blocker than a receiver). Hines will play, but won’t be 100% despite his hyperbaric chamber being shipped to his hotel room in Tampa. My belief is the player most like Hines on the Steelers, who can get the hard yards across the middle and is a “possession” type receiver is Miller.

 

Miller missed 2 full games and part of another due to injury, yet still was #3 in receptions for the Steelers on the season, averaging 3.7 per game, and 4.5 per game since returning from injury in Week 12. If Ward, the Steelers #1 receiver, is limited, his receptions will need to be distributed around and it is only logical that Ben will look for another dependable receiver, and that very well may be Miller.

 

Other key TEs vs. Ari:

 

Brent Celek (Phi) had 10 receptions for 83 yds and 2 TDs against Arizona.

Kevin Boss (NYG) had 4 receptions for 48 yds and 1 TD against Arizona.

Jason Witten (Dal) had 4 receptions for 55 yards against Arizona.

 

Here is a note for shopping around: Bodog has the Over 3 ½ at -120 and the Under at -110. At The Greek, the Over 3 ½ is +100 while the Under is -130. This is one example of why it "pays to shop around".

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well i guess i should apologize then - i'm sorry

IMO this game sets up for Pitts O to use the run and dump off short passes

they will want to make this a short game. so i think its a good wager

i have been wrong many times in the past and may be wrong again

but its my $$ and i like the wager for the reason i gave and also to hedge my bets on AZ if you read my earlier post.

if AZ opens it up then Pitts RB's & Miller will not be used as much but that is fine because then i will collect on my other wagers.

plus it's a prop bet that = 10% of my straight wagers

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well i guess i should apologize then - i'm sorry

IMO this game sets up for Pitts O to use the run and dump off short passes

they will want to make this a short game. so i think its a good wager

i have been wrong many times in the past and may be wrong again

but its my $$ and i like the wager for the reason i gave and also to hedge my bets on AZ if you read my earlier post.

if AZ opens it up then Pitts RB's & Miller will not be used as much but that is fine because then i will collect on my other wagers.

plus it's a prop bet that = 10% of my straight wagers

 

Apologize for what? That is a solid play and I like your reasoning. I think even if Ari opens it up, Miller is a dependable target, and if Holmes is taken up in coverage and Ward is really impacted by his injury, you know Ben will hit the open guy, but I'm sure he'd rather have the sure hands of Miller than the rookie Sweed on the other end. I don't envision Miller getting 10 catches like Celek, but I do see this being very good value as I figure he'll be right around 4 or maybe 5. If he only records only 1 or 2 catches, it means Ben is in big trouble.

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well i guess i should apologize then - i'm sorry

IMO this game sets up for Pitts O to use the run and dump off short passes

they will want to make this a short game. so i think its a good wager

i have been wrong many times in the past and may be wrong again

but its my $$ and i like the wager for the reason i gave and also to hedge my bets on AZ if you read my earlier post.

if AZ opens it up then Pitts RB's & Miller will not be used as much but that is fine because then i will collect on my other wagers.

plus it's a prop bet that = 10% of my straight wagers

 

Apologize for what? As Dre pointed out, with Ward hurt it's a good bet! I just wish you could have got positve odds for it...

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I saw a stat somewhere over the last couple of weeks, not sure if this is right or not, but I think the last 6 teams that won as an underdog at home in the Championship went on to cover the spread in the Super Bowl, and 5 of them won outright.

 

Actually I think that situation has only occurred 6 times in the modern era, not positive about that either.

Edited by rattsass
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I saw a stat somewhere over the last couple of weeks, not sure if this is right or not, but I think the last 6 teams that won as an underdog at home in the Championship went on to cover the spread in the Super Bowl, and 5 of them won outright.

 

Actually I think that situation has only occurred 6 times in the modern era, not positive about that either.

 

More love for the Cardinals!

 

My favorite stat of the week (maybe Dre can verify), is the spread has been 7 in 7 Super Bowls. The favorite is 6-1 SU, but only 2-4-1 ATS.

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More love for the Cardinals!

 

My favorite stat of the week (maybe Dre can verify), is the spread has been 7 in 7 Super Bowls. The favorite is 6-1 SU, but only 2-4-1 ATS.

My numbers are:

 

6.5: 2-1 SU and ATS (1 loss was the 1990 SB where the favored Bills lost by 1 point to the NY Giants)

7: 4-0 SU, 1-2-1 ATS (2 losses were FGs, NE over Philly in 04 and NE over Car the year before)

7.5: 1-0 SU and ATS.

 

Overall: 7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS

 

Not sure how we are that far off on the ATS stat Navin. But this is what I've got.

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Here are some props I like

 

Edge to have a run over 9.5 yards

 

Cards over 2 sacks

 

Rackers over 7 points (fg=3 PAT 1)

 

Does Willie Parker ever catch a pass ? I havent followed Pitt much. there is a O/U receptions prop for FWP where he needs to catch 1 ball for you to win

Edited by whomper
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ATS and Money Line Trends

 

 

Favorites in the Super Bowl are 29-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-18-3 (53.8%). However, over the past seven years, the underdog owns a 5-2 ATS (71.4%) edge.

 

Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium.

 

The straight up winner is 34-5-3 ATS (87.2%) in the 41 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-2 ATS the past five years.

 

The NFC holds a 22-20 SU and 21-18-3 (53.8%) ATS edge all time, but is just 4-7-2 ATS dating back to San Francisco’s rout win over San Diego in the ’95 game.

 

The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-10-2 ATS (9.1%) in the last 13 Super Bowl games! This could be, in fact, THE golden nugget…Pittsburgh, the #2, is the higher seeded team for this year’s game.

 

The team with the better record going in to the game is 27-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)

 

In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.2 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.2 PPG, an average winning margin 15.0 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.

 

There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).

 

Passing for 8.0 or more yards per attempt gives teams an excellent chance in the Super Bowl. Teams that accomplish this are 22-2 SU & 17-7 ATS (70.8%).

 

Over/Under Trends

 

 

There have been 45.3 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl, however, over the last four years, ALL UNDER plays, that figure has dipped to 38.3.

 

Prior to Super Bowl XXXIX, OVER the total had been on a run of 14-5-1.

 

The last six Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 45 or higher have gone UNDER.

 

The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 14 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 22.7 PPG. In essence, if you expect a rout this season, take the OVER, if not, go UNDER.

 

Source: Daily Racing Form

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The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-10-2 ATS (9.1%) in the last 13 Super Bowl games! This could be, in fact, THE golden nugget…Pittsburgh, the #2, is the higher seeded team for this year’s game.

 

Wow. That one is brutal.

 

How much is that doggie at the window?

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My gut told me before the line came out that I was taking the points. When I saw it was as high as it was, I was sure I was taking the points.

For better or worse, I'll be on the Cards on Sunday. :wacko:

 

EDIT: I'm much more of a horse player than football. Any chance alot of "late money" could come in on either team between now and Sunday and move the line like it affects the odds near post time of a horse race?

Edited by HowboutthemCowboys
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My gut told me before the line came out that I was taking the points. When I saw it was as high as it was, I was sure I was taking the points.

For better or worse, I'll be on the Cards on Sunday. :wacko:

 

EDIT: I'm much more of a horse player than football. Any chance alot of "late money" could come in on either team between now and Sunday and move the line like it affects the odds near post time of a horse race?

My online source is showing Az +7(-125). I know some books have moved off 7 to 6.5 but some are resiting that move. If it moves at all, the movement seems to be slightly in favor of the Cards. I locked in at +7 early on figuring that was as good as it would get. The line could move to 6 before game-time in my opinion, but that is the extent of any potential movement that I sense.

 

The moneyline bet on the Cards is the one that is getting hammered. All the way down to +185. Definitely could see more squeeze on that one.

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My online source is showing Az +7(-125). I know some books have moved off 7 to 6.5 but some are resiting that move. If it moves at all, the movement seems to be slightly in favor of the Cards. I locked in at +7 early on figuring that was as good as it would get. The line could move to 6 before game-time in my opinion, but that is the extent of any potential movement that I sense.

 

The moneyline bet on the Cards is the one that is getting hammered. All the way down to +185. Definitely could see more squeeze on that one.

Thanks. I bet through a local guy so the line and over/under are my only choices. I was hoping to get 7 1/2 tomorrow. We'll see.

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