irish Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 (edited) I've been doing some work and thinking about the RB position heading into the '09 season and when looking at Kevin Smith, I was very intrigued at his prospects for the upcoming fantasy year. In my league this past season which is a 1PPR format along with standard scoring, Kevin Smith was ranked as the 17th best RB. The Lions are a mess no doubt but shouldn't be as bad as 0-16 again (or can they?). I'm thinking that Kevin Smith should be a Top 10 RB for the '09 season. Here's some interesting stats which lead me to believe he could be a Top 10 RB... For the first 8 games last season Smith had a total of 94.7 fantasy points for an average of 11.8 per game. He had only 70 carries (about 9 per game) for 305 rushing yards (about 38 per game) 4.4 yds per carry and 4 TDs. He was also targeted 29 times making 24 receptions for 162 yards. In the final 8 games, Smith had a total of 118.4 fantasy points for an average of 14.8 per game. He doubled and then some his carries for the first 8 games with 169 carries (21 per game) for 670 yards (84 per game) 4 yards per carry and 4 more TDs. He was also targeted 30 times making 15 receptions for 124 yards. If you extrapolate his averages for the last 8 games over a whole 16 game slate, Smith would finish with about 338 carries for 1,352 yards and 8-10 TDs. Along with 35 receptions or so for about 260 yards (7.4 ypc about this year's avg.). That would equate to anywhere between 244.2- 256.2 fantasy points on the year and good for the 10th best fantasy RB last season. Now obviously a lot changes from year to year and therefore a lot can happen, with a new slate of rookie RBs coming in, other vets finding new homes, rookies from last year making larger strides, vets from last year who had subpar production possibly bouncing back and the effects of a full year with C-Pep at QB along with a different schedule. However, Kevin Smith could be one of those guys who gets drafted in the 3rd or 4th round but should be drafted in the early to mid 2nd and plays a key role in many owners making the playoffs and possibly winning fantasy titles. Edited February 23, 2009 by irish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T_bone65 Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Too early to tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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