NFL teams drafting WR's early

[Randall]

Around the NFL: Receivers a risky pick early in draft

BY TOM PELISSERO • TPELISSE@GREENBAYPRESSGAZETTE.COM • APRIL 11, 2009

 

 

Seventeen times in the past 10 NFL drafts, a team has used a top-10 pick in an effort to land the NFL’s next game-breaking receiver.

 

 

Here’s a worrisome statistic for whomever takes the plunge with Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin this year:

 

When the 2009 season starts, there’s at least a decent chance that more than half of those 17 receivers will be out of the NFL.

 

Four (Charles Rogers, David Terrell, Peter Warrick and David Boston) haven’t played in years.

 

Two (Mike Williams and Travis Taylor) didn’t play last season.

 

Two (Plaxico Burress and Reggie Williams) are free agents with significant legal issues hanging over their heads.

 

And one other (Koren Robinson) has a degenerative knee condition that might have left him unemployed last season if not for a slew of injuries in Seattle.

 

That’s without mentioning the likes of Troy Williamson, whose drop-prone career is hanging by a thread in Jacksonville, or Ted Ginn Jr., who hasn’t exactly lit it up in two seasons with Miami.

 

History has no bearing on how things will play out for Texas Tech’s Crabtree, a likely top-10 selection regarded by many as the best receiver in this year’s class. He could be the next Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson, all top-10 picks since 1999 who have made multiple Pro Bowls with the teams that drafted them.

 

But the percentages suggest the chances of Crabtree, Maclin or any other receiver taken in the top 10 becoming a star are no better than 50-50, and probably much worse.

 

There are myriad factors at play, not the least of which is that teams with top-10 picks sometimes are lousy teams that lack the infrastructure — quarterback, offensive line, complementary running game, coaching — to help a receiver succeed.

 

Sometimes, the vaunted college star simply turns out to be a bad NFL player, a bad guy or both.

 

In addition to pending cases against Burress (criminal possession of a weapon) and Reggie Williams (cocaine possession), Rogers is serving time for violating probation related to an assault case, and Robinson and Boston at one point were released after high-profile arrests for drunk driving.

 

There are misses at every position, of course.

 

Twenty-one defensive linemen have been drafted in the top 10 since 1999, the most of any position group, but only six (28.6 percent) have made a Pro Bowl, the lowest percentage of any position.

 

Of 15 quarterbacks, only three have made multiple Pro Bowls, and only one has won a Super Bowl as a starter. Five are backups, one is a free agent, two have been out of the league for years and one is incarcerated.

 

About the only safe bet has been running back. Seven of 11 (63.6 percent) have combined to go to 15 Pro Bowls, and all were on NFL rosters last season.

 

In truth, there is no such thing as a safe bet, which is why every team relies on its evaluations to determine whether a player will buck a trend or continue it.

 

No one spends a top-10 pick — a can’t-miss pick, based in no small part on the financial commitment involved — on a player without being sold on his ability.

 

No scout bases his evaluation on the performance of a player’s positional predecessors, either.

 

Still, it’s startling to think those “can’t-miss” receivers of the past 10 years have been less likely to make multiple trips to Hawaii than at least one trip to jail.

 

— Information from a variety of sources was used in this report. E-mail assistant sports editor Tom Pelissero at tpelisse@greenbaypressgazette.com.