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1st Round Risky Picks


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Harvin headlines first round’s five most risky picks

 

By Nolan Nawrocki

April 9, 2009

 

 

When it comes to stacking talent, most teams abide by the belief that talent and character can be separated. They grade the talent for what it is, setting their draft boards based on who the best talent is, from top to bottom, and then massage grades to a point where they feel comfortable taking a chance on a player with great risk — if they feel comfortable taking him at all — and do not remove his card from their draft board altogether.

 

With Jay Cutler forcing his trade out of Denver after losing part of the locker room and completely losing ownership, Michael Vick currently serving time in prison for killing dogs, Plaxico Burress on the street after needlessly carrying a gun, and Adam Jones potentially not getting back into the league after far too many run-ins with the law, the importance of character in the decision-making process has come to the forefront, especially when major investments are required early in the first round, where all of the above-mentioned players were drafted.

 

“I don’t know what it is,” one NFL executive said. “I’m not sure if it is a societal thing, but everyone seems like they have hickeys nowadays. Maybe it’s the Internet and the access to more information than we ever had — I don’t know — but it’s difficult to find many players that do not have blemishes.”

 

PFW polled five high-level league executives, asking them to rank five players with suspect track records — (listed alphabetically) Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree, Illinois CB Vontae Davis, Florida WR Percy Harvin, USC ILB Rey Maualuga and Boston College DT B.J. Raji — in the order in which character is most likely to be a negative factor in the pros. All participants were granted anonymity in exchange for honesty.

 

One top-ranking official, who said he would not draft any of them, compared the exercise to trying to decide between whether he’d rather eat cow manure, drink monkey urine or ingest rabbit turds. None of the choices seemed attractive enough to place one over the other, and, it should be noted, not all felt strongly that character would be an issue that would prevent them from drafting the following players or affect their ability to succeed in the pros. Teams with strong locker rooms, veteran leadership and consistent, demanding coaches may be able to better tolerate concerns.

 

More specific details on these players are included in Pro Football Weekly’s 2009 Draft Preview than what is included below, and much is best left unsaid, but following are the results of how teams rated the greatest risk concerns.

 

1) WR Percy Harvin, Florida (Jr.)

The first player mentioned by all five executives, Harvin is the clear-cut favorite in this year’s draft class to find trouble after receiving a giant payday. He was very competitive at Florida, even battling through a broken bone in his foot that was publicly referred to as a sprained ankle, helping the Gators win two national championships the past three years. The mention of character concerns about Harvin drew outrage from ardent supporters of Gator Nation after PFW’s 2009 Draft Guide was released. Nonetheless, one executive said Harvin would have to slip to the fourth round for him to consider rolling the dice on Harvin's character. Two others said they would not entertain the idea of drafting him at any price. Coachability, a posse of hangers-on, his lack of respect for authority and drug usage made Harvin a unanimous selection to become a repeated problem in the pros.

 

2) WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech (Soph.-3)

Crabtree may not have a laundry list of arrests, but his ego is abnormally large to the point where he repeatedly demeaned training staff, his work ethic has been described as “marginal at best,” and his intelligence and ability to handle success remain major question marks. One thorough evaluator compared Crabtree’s mental makeup to that of former LSU and Buccaneers 2004 15th overall pick Michael Clayton, who made a big splash in the NFL as a rookie before going on to average 31 catches, 378 yards and a half-TD catch each of the past four years as he lost focus, bought into the hype and stopped working at his craft the way young receivers must do to be great. Crabtree's competitiveness noticeably stands out on tape, and he did play through injury last season. However, when the Red Raiders were getting whipped by better competition (Oklahoma and Mississippi) during the final two games of the season, Crabtree did not finish either game. After he gets a taste of success in the pros, evaluators are not confident he will be able to handle the trappings of the pro game.

 

3) ILB Rey Maualuga, USC

Football is clearly very important to him, and he has endearingly been described as a “war daddy” by evaluators, but questions remain about his maturity, accountability, trustworthiness, intelligence and ability to responsibly handle alcohol. His coaches publicly have contended that he has matured greatly, but some of his actions have continued to suggest otherwise. One executive said he had positioned Maualuga just far enough down in the first round so that he would not be considered with the team’s first pick, hoping he would be gone by the time the second pick came around. Another evaluator said he did not envision Maualuga’s position on his team’s draft board being altered based on his character but, when pressed as to whether he would draft Maualuga in the top 10, said the pick would be “too scary.”

 

4) CB Vontae Davis, Illinois (Jr.)

Outside of being demoted several times throughout his career, in the spring and in the fall, Davis may not seem like he has a lot of issues on the surface — with no noted arrests or incidents that scream “problem.” However, his team interviews have been received very poorly, raising questions about his mental instability, lack of maturity and intelligence issues that clearly show up on tape consistently. He was regularly in the coaches’ doghouse, is very difficult to manage, does not respond well to coaching and may never easily blend into a locker room, as he beats to his own drum.

 

5) DT B.J. Raji, Boston College

Defensive tackles may need to be held to a different standard, with the modern-day widebody not needed to play as many snaps in the pros as most are asked to play in college, where fewer schools rotate their defensive linemen the way NFL teams tend to do. In a league where extra mass is rewarded and girth is a big plus defending the run, not all teams even penalize their linemen for not being able to control their weight. However, Raji’s work habits, intelligence and overall maturity, including at least one verified failed drug test, were distractions in college, especially early on, and several executives said they would not be willing to invest a first-round pick in a player with so many questions. Among the aforementioned five players with concerns, however, Raji drew the least criticism because of the improved maturity he showed as a senior after a clerical error cost him his junior season.

 

Others who could be affected by character issues:

 

WR Brandon Tate, North Carolina

WR Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina

OT Michael Oher, Mississippi

TE Travis Beckum, Wisconsin

LB Dannell Ellerbe, Georgia

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You can't help but wonder how much of this kind of stuff is put out there for the benefit of other teams, and how much other teams take it seriously? I get the feeling that the 5 "anonymous high-level officials" are sitting back right now & chuckling at Nawrocki and any serious discussion this would generate.

 

I do believe that different teams have different tolerance for risk - look at how some very talented players plummet every year because of injuries - but I also don't think that any of these guys willingly share anything other than what might get them an edge in the upcoming draft.

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I totally disagree with this statement.

 

"...Jay Cutler forcing his trade out of Denver after losing part of the locker room and completely losing ownership."

 

I don't believe this reporter understood what happened there.

 

 

 

Character is important(no doubt) and I hope my team evaluates it carefully. These kids can hurt teams for years if their pasts are glossed over.

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You can't help but wonder how much of this kind of stuff is put out there for the benefit of other teams, and how much other teams take it seriously? I get the feeling that the 5 "anonymous high-level officials" are sitting back right now & chuckling at Nawrocki and any serious discussion this would generate.

 

I do believe that different teams have different tolerance for risk - look at how some very talented players plummet every year because of injuries - but I also don't think that any of these guys willingly share anything other than what might get them an edge in the upcoming draft.

 

good point.

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You can't help but wonder how much of this kind of stuff is put out there for the benefit of other teams, and how much other teams take it seriously? I get the feeling that the 5 "anonymous high-level officials" are sitting back right now & chuckling at Nawrocki and any serious discussion this would generate.

 

I do believe that different teams have different tolerance for risk - look at how some very talented players plummet every year because of injuries - but I also don't think that any of these guys willingly share anything other than what might get them an edge in the upcoming draft.

 

I don't think Nawrocki is made a fool very often. He's been the most accurate mock drafter for years now, and I believe his credibility is pretty well established throughout the league.

 

At some point the "espionage" angle just loses its luster. I mean, it only works if everybody else doesn't think it's espionage. I.e., if GMs are trying to highlight a player's character concerns, most other GMs will wonder (as you did), "Are they just saying that so the players fall?" Their next thought would be, "Well, if people are purposely doing that, then there's more demand for these players than I thought. I better slot them a little higher" or "I wasn't going to trade up to get Harvin, but now I think I'll have to...there other GMs who are targeting him" etc., etc.

 

It's much more likely these anonymous personnel guys are just keeping up a good, honest relationship with a credible reporter.

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i like crabtree and all....but i cant believe people are really thinking about taking this guy in the top5....sorry...he aint fitz...he aint randy...he aint andre johnson....

 

you can get darius heyward bey later in the 1st round(possibly later)?....DHB is just as talented in my opinion...the kid was killed by terrible qb play...if he played with a solid college qb in a friendly system the way crabtree and maclin did....hed be right up there

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2) WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech (Soph.-3)

Crabtree may not have a laundry list of arrests, but his ego is abnormally large to the point where he repeatedly demeaned training staff, his work ethic has been described as “marginal at best,” and his intelligence and ability to handle success remain major question marks. One thorough evaluator compared Crabtree’s mental makeup to that of former LSU and Buccaneers 2004 15th overall pick Michael Clayton, who made a big splash in the NFL as a rookie before going on to average 31 catches, 378 yards and a half-TD catch each of the past four years as he lost focus, bought into the hype and stopped working at his craft the way young receivers must do to be great. Crabtree's competitiveness noticeably stands out on tape, and he did play through injury last season. However, when the Red Raiders were getting whipped by better competition (Oklahoma and Mississippi) during the final two games of the season, Crabtree did not finish either game. After he gets a taste of success in the pros, evaluators are not confident he will be able to handle the trappings of the pro game.

 

Michael Clatyon and Michael Crabtree share their first names and a first initial in their last name. That about where the comparisons should end.

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At some point the "espionage" angle just loses its luster. I mean, it only works if everybody else doesn't think it's espionage. I.e., if GMs are trying to highlight a player's character concerns, most other GMs will wonder (as you did), "Are they just saying that so the players fall?" Their next thought would be, "Well, if people are purposely doing that, then there's more demand for these players than I thought. I better slot them a little higher" or "I wasn't going to trade up to get Harvin, but now I think I'll have to...there other GMs who are targeting him" etc., etc.

"He knows that I know that he knows that I covet this player..." :wacko:

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I don't think Nawrocki is made a fool very often. He's been the most accurate mock drafter for years now, and I believe his credibility is pretty well established throughout the league.

 

Don't take this the wrong way, Swiss. Nawrocki is very credible and does a very good job. Knowing that, he would be foolhardy to think that he was being fed completely and entirely faithful information from people whose career depends on being better than the other 31 guys doing their jobs to obtain the same goal as they have: to obtain on-par or better value from the majority of their drafts picks. Espionage is rife within the game that is being played right now, at least by those that have learned to play the game well.

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Don't take this the wrong way, Swiss. Nawrocki is very credible and does a very good job. Knowing that, he would be foolhardy to think that he was being fed completely and entirely faithful information from people whose career depends on being better than the other 31 guys doing their jobs to obtain the same goal as they have: to obtain on-par or better value from the majority of their drafts picks. Espionage is rife within the game that is being played right now, at least by those that have learned to play the game well.

Do you think that Scott Pioli and Bill Parcells are reading Nawrocki's column for inside draft dish?

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Do you think that Scott Pioli and Bill Parcells are reading Nawrocki's column for inside draft dish?

 

I can't speak for them. What do you think? Nawrocki has established credibility. Wouldn't a GM be remiss if they didn't sift through as much information as they can?

 

Let me put it this way - put yourself in their position: You & your staff are spending 14+ hours a day, 6 days a week for the past 2 months pouring over players eligible for the draft. Wouldn't guys like Mayock, Nawrocki, & Rang be at least bathroom reading material for your crew?

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Let me put it this way - put yourself in their position: You & your staff are spending 14+ hours a day, 6 days a week for the past 2 months pouring over players eligible for the draft. Wouldn't guys like Mayock, Nawrocki, & Rang be at least bathroom reading material for your crew?

Probably not, when I factor in the concept that a good chunk of what I am reading is as likely to be MISinformation as actual information - as far as your thesis is concerned; personally, I think that five scouts going under anonymous names airing concerns is next to useless - you don't even know which teams are expressing issue with which player, and even if you did there are 26 other teams where you have NO idea what they're thining. As an article that is nice discussion fodder for MBs, it's great; as actual inside info, I don't think it tells anyone significant personnel staff anything they probably aren't already aware of.

 

I'd probably be reading Mad magazine in the bathroom to get my mind off the job for 15 minutes a day. :wacko:

Edited by Chavez
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Here's the thing, others have said that this reporter is good at his job and doesn't get played with BS by NFL people. So, did this respected reporter not pay attention to the Denver fiasco or did he just use it as BS ammo as a lead in to his story... something a respected wouldn't do?

 

But yeah, I was annoyed when I read that. I wasn't going to post anything about it, but since you brought it up... +1

 

 

All reporters are starting to suck camel dick.

 

 

 

 

 

 

He can make that point if he wants but make the argument. Convince those of us that disagree you are right. He didn't do any of that.

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Here's the thing, others have said that this reporter is good at his job and doesn't get played with BS by NFL people. So, did this respected reporter not pay attention to the Denver fiasco or did he just use it as BS ammo as a lead in to his story... something a respected wouldn't do?

 

But yeah, I was annoyed when I read that. I wasn't going to post anything about it, but since you brought it up... +1

 

 

All reporters are starting to suck camel dick.

 

Distinguish between "reporter" and "writer." He was reaching for a good intro to his actual reporting, and it didn't quite work. That's a failure as a writer; but, as an NFL Draft/college scouting reporter, he's about as good as it gets.

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Let me put it this way - put yourself in their position: You & your staff are spending 14+ hours a day, 6 days a week for the past 2 months pouring over players eligible for the draft. Wouldn't guys like Mayock, Nawrocki, & Rang be at least bathroom reading material for your crew?

 

 

But if we ARE in that position, while those reporters would be at least bathroom reading material, that position also comes with the ability to read that article, pick up the phone and double check everything there, if you and the staff haven't noticed some of it already (like Harvin's lack of focus for example). We can still only guess at it.

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Probably not, when I factor in the concept that a good chunk of what I am reading is as likely to be MISinformation as actual information - as far as your thesis is concerned; personally, I think that five scouts going under anonymous names airing concerns is next to useless - you don't even know which teams are expressing issue with which player, and even if you did there are 26 other teams where you have NO idea what they're thining. As an article that is nice discussion fodder for MBs, it's great; as actual inside info, I don't think it tells anyone significant personnel staff anything they probably aren't already aware of.

 

I'd probably be reading Mad magazine in the bathroom to get my mind off the job for 15 minutes a day. :D

 

:wacko: @ Mad magazine and the hours I spent with those as a kid.

 

I guess I'd use the information provided by the likes of those listed above as a "smell test". When you work in close groups for extended periods, you tend to start getting convinced, either positively or negatively, by the influence of others unless you are very passionate about your position. While I wouldn't use any of this stuff as a primary tool, I'd be willing to use it as a secondary tool - kind of a "what-did-I-miss-here" kind of outside the circle perspective.

 

Oh, and if I were employed by a pro team & doing this, I'd never, ever let on that I was doing it... :D

Edited by Bronco Billy
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From Rotoworld

 

Todd McShay saying teams are comparing Harvin to Chad Johnson.

 

ESPN's Todd McShay says that NFL teams have likened Florida WR Percy Harvin to Chad Johnson.

In addition to concern about drug use, coachability, and lack of respect for authority, teams are reportedly worried that Harvin has a huge ego and lives in "Percy Harvin world." This could be typical pre-draft misinformation. Harvin showed toughness and unselfishness throughout his UF career.

 

 

Is this true(unselfishness at UF)?

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