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MJD Gets Paid


Capt. Stanky
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I would argue that Knowshown is a better fit than Chris Wells for Jax. At 5'7" 208 I consider MJD to be one of the more successful power backs in the league. His low center of gravity gives him a huge advantage over the competition. I've seen him spin out of tackles countless times with his low center of gravity coupled with his great balance. If they are indeed considering a back at #8 I feel Knowshown is the better value, but this is coming from a UGA fan :wacko:

 

I still doubt they spend their first round pick on a back with countless other needs. They won 5 games last year and most would argue that MJD is their best player.

 

MJD is their best player, but if he goes down are they going to rely on Chauncey Washington? They do that they might challenge Detroit for most games ever lost in a season. Maybe Cotrone develops, but frankly I think he is too big to have speed, so that is not the answer. Besides that, MJD simply cannot take every carry, and with a 4 yr contract, I seriously doubt Del Rio is even contemplating that. There is noone on the Jags squad that can pick up the slack, or even spell MJD. I did not see them making any RB moves in FA, which leads me to believe they are going to address that in the draft.

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MJD is their best player, but if he goes down are they going to rely on Chauncey Washington? They do that they might challenge Detroit for most games ever lost in a season. Maybe Cotrone develops, but frankly I think he is too big to have speed, so that is not the answer. Besides that, MJD simply cannot take every carry, and with a 4 yr contract, I seriously doubt Del Rio is even contemplating that. There is noone on the Jags squad that can pick up the slack, or even spell MJD. I did not see them making any RB moves in FA, which leads me to believe they are going to address that in the draft.

 

I don't doubt that they address RB in the draft. I just doubt they will with their 1st round pick. Personally, I think #8 is far to high for Wells or Knowshown. A trade down wouldn't surprise me, but their just doesn't seem to be much of a market to move down this year. Their best bet is if Crabtree or Sanchez slips to them, but if Crabtree's there don't they have to take him?

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I don't doubt that they address RB in the draft. I just doubt they will with their 1st round pick. Personally, I think #8 is far to high for Wells or Knowshown. A trade down wouldn't surprise me, but their just doesn't seem to be much of a market to move down this year. Their best bet is if Crabtree or Sanchez slips to them, but if Crabtree's there don't they have to take him?

If Crabtree is there no doubt they have to take him. The jags glaring need is at WR. I don't think Crabtree will fall that far in round 1, but I like Kenny Britt in round 2, big guy with good hands. The more I delve into this subject the less I like the jags chances this year. 1 dimensional teams are not likely to succeed.

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I am gonna put this in this thread since it will probably be a bit easier to find later rahter then looking for it buried in a Fred Taylor thread (anything written in BLUE is from this post and everything in italics is a cut and paste from the Fred Taylor thread:

 

I predict Maurice Jones Drew will get 231 carries in 2009

 

how did I get to that?(again this is also cut and paste from that Fred Taylor thread)

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?s=&a...t&p=2777464

1st let me say that I have done some research in the past that showed that as things seem to change due to players and schemes etc they actually tend to stay pretty consistent with their historical averages...I wont be providing that info now so you will just have to either A. take my word for it or B. do a search of my old posts since I think I posted something about this before (definitely did something about the Jax WRs a year or two ago).

 

Jacksonville Rushing stats for the past 5 years(3 would probably be a bit of a better indicator but the difference would be pretty nominal) also I didnt include the handful of rushing attempts by WRs.

Stats, you just have to change the YEAR to get the info

 

TEAM Rushes:

08:426

07:522

06:513

05:502

04:446

TOTAL: 2409 rushes (30.11/game)

 

Rushes Broken down a bit:(Top 2 Rushers listed 1st, RBs are carries by all other RBs on the roster not including the top 2)

08(46%/34% - % of total rushes for the 1st and 2nd leading rushers)

197 MJD

143 Fred Taylor

75 QBs

8 RBs

 

07(43%/32%)

223 Fred Taylor

167 MJD

68 QBs

55 RBs

 

06(45%/32%)

231 Fred Taylor

166 MJD

74 QBs

30 RBs

 

05(39%/30%)

194 Fred Taylor

151 GREG JONES

65 QBs

78 RBs

 

04(58%/14%)

260 Fred Taylor

62 Greg Jones (Rookie Year)

51 QBs

71 RBs

 

04-09 totals / per season averages

RB 1: 1105 / 221 (13.8/game) 46%

RB 2: 689 / 138 (8.6/game)29%

QBs: 333 / 67 14%

RBs: 242 / 48 10%

 

A few things to take note of our the outliers:

1. the 62 carries by Greg Jones in 04 looks to really skews the 2nd running back stats

but the RB2 average would be 157/year (9.8/game) without that year in the numbers only a difference of

1.2 carries/game.

2. Fred Taylors 58% of carries in 04 pushes the total 5 year average up 3% so without 04 the RB1 % would be 43% vs the 46%

3. The 8 carries by the RBs not named Taylor or MJD in 08 pulls the totals for RBs down 10.1/year (.63/game)

 

Even looking at the outliers it is easy to see that as big a difference as they are comparatively to the other years they aren't big enough that I am

going to pull them out so that will HELP MJDs numbers that I present:

 

5 year average for the Jags rushing game::

482 carries / 30.11/game

RB1 221 / 13.8/game

RB2 138 / 8.6/game

QBs 67 /4.2/game

RBs 48 / 3/game

 

 

Now for my projections basing it largely on what the historical averages show.

 

2009 Jacksonville Rushing game:

480 carries (30/game)

RB1: 231 (14.4/game) I can see this topping out at 250 but not a carry more and would be very surprised to see the 250

RB2: 130 (8.1/game) Could see this hitting 145 but doubt it gets much higher and on the low end would be 110 carries.

QBs: 75 (4.7/game)

RBs:44 (2.8/game)

 

RB1s 231 would be equal to 48%

RB2s 130 would be equal to 27%

QBs: 75 would be equal to 16%

RBs: 44 would be equal to 9%

 

My initial 221 was based strictly off of the 5 year average and the more I look at it I think that MJD gets a small uptick over that based on the fact that while I think Greg Jones is going to be more than a serviceable back he doesn't have the same talent that Fred or MJD brought to the RB2 spot...but with that said I think Jones will be a very nice value in drafts this year. The other thing is that currently the #3 RB Chauncy Davis is a 2nd year player with an entire 4 carries in his career and Montel Owens is going to be a 4th year FB that has all of 2 carries....That fact alone makes the 44 carries for RBs a bit dicey but I have read that the Jags like Chauncey Washington so I could see him getting enough touches to make the 44 a reality...also I wouldnt be surprised to see the Jags bring in a vet back to help with the 3/4 RB spots which would easily help to get to the 44 carries.

 

Now back to MJD...each of the past 3 years he has seen his carries increase and his YPC decrease(down to 4.2 last year)....

I will be generous and say MJD averages 4.2 again this year.

231 carries at 4.2 = 970 yards

 

As I said earlier I think that relying on double digit TDs for his production is a dicey situation...when I take a RB early in the draft I would much rather know that they are going to get my 1200-1500 rushing yards because if their team has Red Zone troubles then the sting isnt so bad if they only score 5-6 TDs.

 

As far as Receptions go...MJD did have 62 catches last year and has averaged 49/year since entering the league.

A few things we know....last year the Jags WRs were pretty horrible and the OL sure didnt help the passing game at all.

I am sure many like myself expected a much better year from the Jags last year and the fact that they sucked so bad really had an impact

on how much they were able to run the ball....I would like to say I expect them to improve this year but I don't think there will be much improvement

based mainly on their current lack of receivers. That imo is going to hurt the passing game which in turn will hurt the running game some too.

 

Of course there is a ton of things that can happen to help the WR corps and depth at RB too...and depending on those things my projections could change but still I cant see them changing very much.

 

Here is some additional info on TDs for the Jaguars during their history:

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?s=&a...t&p=2777588

as far as TDs go...the Jags have played 14 seasons in the NFL and in 7 of those years they have had a RB score double digit TDs:

 

98: 17 Fred Taylor

06: 15 MJD

08: 14 MJD

00: 14 Fred Taylor

99: 13 James Stewart

96: 10 James Stewart

01: 10 Stacey Mack

 

and you are projecting MJD for 12 so I don't know that I would call it conservative...i would say it is achievable but not conservative

 

What does "used extensively" actually mean?

this was with regards to a blurb posted by Vic Ketchman (Ketchman says MoJo will be "used extensively" in the pass game, and he's probably a safe bet for 18-24 carries a game.)

 

carries per game seem to be the easiest to toss out and yet lose some of their overall sense without being extrapolated:

 

18=288

24=384

 

the question that now needs answering is what is "used extensively" in the passing game? If it is extensive enough then that has to effect his carries because it would make sense that would take away from the running game.

 

The other thing to look at is that as a back that will be used "extensively" in the passing game one can deduce that MJD won't be coming off the field much on 3rd downs...so my question is what % of catches and runs do people thing that MJD will garner just by playing on 3rd downs?

 

I can tell you this....the Jags have averaged 216 3rd down plays/year for this DECADE.

They have averaged 1007 offensive plays this DECADE (not sure if punts and FGs are included in that but I would assume that they are)

 

I know that there are many out there that think the 24 carries are very probable and many of those people are expecting 60+ catches too...I just cant see MJD with over 440 offensive touches in a single year

 

And lastly some interesting numbers on MJD

 

Here is some additionally interesting info I found on MJD:

 

 

Rushing Attempts 1 thru 10

2008 137 attempts, 621 yards, 4.5 ypc, 10 TDs, 37 1st downs

2007 155 attempts 673 yards. 4.3 ypc, 9 TDs, 45 1st downs

2006 118 attempts, 757 yards, 6.4 ypc, 11 TDs, 38 1st downs

 

Rushing Attempts 11 thru 20

2008 55 attempts, 193 yards, 3.5 ypc, 2 TDs , 9 1st downs

2007 26 attempts, 143 yards. 5.5 ypc, 1 TDs, 5 1st downs

2006 42 attempts, 171 yards. 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs, 7 1st downs

 

 

Rushing Attempts 21 thru 30

2008 5 attempts, 10 yards, 2.0 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs

2007 NONE in 2007

2006 6 attempts, 13 yards, 2.2 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs

 

Now lets look a bit deeper at the numbers:

2008:

carries 1-10 converted 27% of carries into 1st downs

carries 11-20 converted 16% of carries into 1st downs

carries 21-30 converted 20% of carries into 1st downs(5 carries is really to small a sample size)

 

2007:

carries 1-10 converted 29% of carries into 1st downs

carries 11-20 converted 19% of carries into 1st downs

carries 21-30 N/A NO CARRIES

 

2006:

carries 1-10 converted 32% of carries into 1st downs

carries 11-20 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs

carries 21-30 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs(again only 6 carries and that really is to small a sample size)

 

So to me it looks as if the Jags want to LIMIT MJDs effectiveness they will indeed be giving him MORE carries

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I still doubt they spend their first round pick on a back with countless other needs.

 

They will not be need drafting, they have 6 picks, they hopefully can trade down. They are just as likely to draft a DE as anyone, do they need a DE?

 

If Crabtree is there no doubt they have to take him.

 

This is so far out of the realm of possibility it is not even worth commenting on. Dude, really.

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This is so far out of the realm of possibility it is not even worth commenting on. Dude, really.

 

Nice job of quoting me out of context "DUDE". Next time look at the post I was replying to and my position on this issue. Really

 

This is the full quote of what I said:

 

If Crabtree is there no doubt they have to take him. The jags glaring need is at WR. I don't think Crabtree will fall that far in round 1, but I like Kenny Britt in round 2, big guy with good hands. The more I delve into this subject the less I like the jags chances this year. 1 dimensional teams are not likely to succeed.

 

As this is your first post in this thread, and you had no information to offer and preferred to misquote in order to make youself look knowledgeable, from this point forward I will simply ignore anything you have to say.

Edited by 1BadassRat
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Keggerz, are we going to get into this again :wacko: . For those that don't know, we've had great debates about MJD's prospects going into next year. I'm going to use some different stats to back up my argument.

 

To this point in MJD's career he has been a part of a two headed rushing attack. I agree that this will probably continue to some degree, but to think MJD won't have an increase in touches is naive, IMO. The only thing we have to base his future value are the games where he shouldered the load at the end of the year. Here are MJD's stats in those games:

 

Week 15 vs GB

 

12 car for 48 yds & 1 TD/ 4 rec 22 yds & 1 TD (22.8 fantasy pts in PPR)

 

Week 16 vs Indy

 

20 car for 91 yds/ 7 rec for 71 yds (23.2 fantasy pts in PPR)

 

Week 17 @ Balt

 

23 car for 78 yds/ 1 rec for 10 yds (9.8 fantasy pts in PPR)

 

In the games listed above MJD was the only back to get more than 3 carries in any single game. Like I stated, I do think they will allow their other backs to shoulders some of the load, but I would be surprised if MJD doesn't have at least 30 more touches next year as compared to last. Some would point to the Balt game, but he rushed for the second most yards of any one RB against Balt last year. Essentially 10 fantasy points against Balt really isn't too bad.

Edited by Capt. Stanky
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Keggerz, are we going to get into this again :wacko: . For those that don't know, we've had great debates about MJD's prospects going into next year. I'm going to use some different stats to back up my argument.

 

To this point in MJD's career he has been a part of a two headed rushing attack. I agree that this will probably continue to some degree, but to think MJD won't have an increase in touches is naive, IMO. The only thing we have to base his future value are the games where he shouldered the load at the end of the year. Here are MJD's stats in those games:

 

Week 15 vs GB

 

12 car for 48 yds & 1 TD/ 4 rec 22 yds & 1 TD (22.8 fantasy pts in PPR)

 

Week 16 vs Indy

 

20 car for 91 yds/ 7 rec for 71 yds (23.2 fantasy pts in PPR)

 

Week 17 @ Balt

 

23 car for 78 yds/ 1 rec for 10 yds (9.8 fantasy pts in PPR)

 

In the games listed above MJD was the only back to get more than 3 carries in any single game. Like I stated, I do think they will allow their other backs to shoulders some of the load, but I would be surprised if MJD doesn't have at least 30 more touches next year as compared to last. Some would point to the Balt game, but he rushed for the second most yards of any one RB against Balt last year. Essentially 10 fantasy points against Balt really isn't too bad.

Keggers arguements most certainly have some validity. This thread interested me as a Dynasty MJD owner. Even with your stats he is averaging 4 YPC Stanky. Given JAX lack of a passing attack, I may well rethink my position and sell MJD high, unless by a miracle they resolve that situation.

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Keggers arguements most certainly have some validity. This thread interested me as a Dynasty MJD owner. Even with your stats he is averaging 4 YPC Stanky. Given JAX lack of a passing attack, I may well rethink my position and sell MJD high, unless by a miracle they resolve that situation.

3.95 actually :wacko:

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Nice job of quoting me out of context "DUDE". Next time look at the post I was replying to and my position on this issue. Really

 

This is the full quote of what I said:

If Crabtree is there no doubt they have to take him. The jags glaring need is at WR. I don't think Crabtree will fall that far in round 1, but I like Kenny Britt in round 2, big guy with good hands. The more I delve into this subject the less I like the jags chances this year. 1 dimensional teams are not likely to succeed.

 

Guess we'll see next week then won't we, ginger. :wacko:

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3.95 actually :wacko:

 

Yep, but one of those games was against the Ravens. I doubt many RB's had over a 4 yard average in any 3 game stretch, with one of those games being against the Ravens. He averaged a respectable 4.3 in the other two games. I hear what people are saying about their passing attack, but it's been bad ever since MJD joined the Jags. I think the more important factor is improving the D. If they get someone like BJ Raji in the first, and the D is back in the top 10 in the league, the O will revolve around the running game like years past. That's not necessarily a bad thing for MJD. I think many would agree that Del Rio's job is on the line if he has another season like last year, so I would expect a vast improvment on D.

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Keggerz, are we going to get into this again :D . For those that don't know, we've had great debates about MJD's prospects going into next year. I'm going to use some different stats to back up my argument.

 

To this point in MJD's career he has been a part of a two headed rushing attack. I agree that this will probably continue to some degree, but to think MJD won't have an increase in touches is naive, IMO. The only thing we have to base his future value are the games where he shouldered the load at the end of the year. Here are MJD's stats in those games:

 

Week 15 vs GB

 

12 car for 48 yds & 1 TD/ 4 rec 22 yds & 1 TD (22.8 fantasy pts in PPR)

 

Week 16 vs Indy

 

20 car for 91 yds/ 7 rec for 71 yds (23.2 fantasy pts in PPR)

 

Week 17 @ Balt

 

23 car for 78 yds/ 1 rec for 10 yds (9.8 fantasy pts in PPR)

 

In the games listed above MJD was the only back to get more than 3 carries in any single game. Like I stated, I do think they will allow their other backs to shoulders some of the load, but I would be surprised if MJD doesn't have at least 30 more touches next year as compared to last. Some would point to the Balt game, but he rushed for the second most yards of any one RB against Balt last year. Essentially 10 fantasy points against Balt really isn't too bad.

No need...just wanted to put that info in here so it would be easier to find in the future when you get to say to me "You were wrong " :wacko:

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Two things.

 

Crabtree WILL be there at 8.

 

The jags won't even consider him.

 

QUOTE (H8tank @ 4/17/09 2:22pm)

This is so far out of the realm of possibility it is not even worth commenting on. Dude, really.

 

Haha, and then you comment on it. IMO this just highlights your worthlessness in analysis "DUDE".

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Yep, but one of those games was against the Ravens. I doubt many RB's had over a 4 yard average in any 3 game stretch, with one of those games being against the Ravens. He averaged a respectable 4.3 in the other two games. I hear what people are saying about their passing attack, but it's been bad ever since MJD joined the Jags. I think the more important factor is improving the D. If they get someone like BJ Raji in the first, and the D is back in the top 10 in the league, the O will revolve around the running game like years past. That's not necessarily a bad thing for MJD. I think many would agree that Del Rio's job is on the line if he has another season like last year, so I would expect a vast improvment on D.

 

 

I took the time to calculate the YPC for the top 13 RB's in our league for 2008. Here's what it looks like:

 

DWill 5.5

Burner 4.5

AP 4.8

Forte 3.9

Jones 4.5

Slaton 4.8

LT 3.8

Portis 4.3

Westbrook 4.0

MJD 4.2

C. Johnson 4.9

Jacobs 5.0

SJax 4.1

Gore 4.3

 

Granted that this stat is skewed by the performance of the OL and the passing attack of teams, 4.2 ain't too shabby as a backup last year. I actually expected it to be low, but that is just not true. I still say tho that Jax HAS to address there passing game or other teams will just load the box and shut MJD down.

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QUOTE (H8tank @ 4/17/09 2:22pm)

This is so far out of the realm of possibility it is not even worth commenting on. Dude, really.

 

Haha, and then you comment on it. IMO this just highlights your worthlessness in analysis "DUDE".

 

YO! Noob!

 

Don't screw with H8. You WILL lose.

 

Just some advice from you Uncle McBoog :wacko:

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All the MJD owners have to be happy with the Jags draft. Two OT's with their first two picks was music to my ears. They obviously never expected either OT to be there. I didn't like the fact that they were able to knab Rashaad Jennings in the 7th, but I'm sure there's a valid reason he slipped that far. All in all, the draft did nothing to sway my projections for MJD next year.

Edited by Capt. Stanky
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