Give me your top 12

[KOKIDKOKID]

Wow...how is Chris Johnson not on this list? I love seeing lists this early in the year though...keep 'em coming gang.

 

KO'd

[Company of Heroes]

Wow...how is Chris Johnson not on this list? I love seeing lists this early in the year though...keep 'em coming gang.

 

KO'd

 

 

Wow! Totally missed that. Gotta be an error. CJ is top ten for sure.

[efi4eye]

Ryan Grant at 8th best RB? MJD only 6th? OK..

[Big Country]

I think that what these early lists, and our comments on the mso far show, is that this year, more so than any year in recent memory, has no "set" top x number of RBs. In most year's past, there was a clear cut 3-4 RBs that for sure went 1-4 in most drafts. Not so this year. I've seen guys like MJD, LT, Turner, Westbrook, DeAngelo and Forte thrown around anywhere from #2 to #10 (even lower by some).

 

Basically the only one that seems clear cut is AP.

 

This will make the offseason all the more enjoyable, and important to the astute FF player, to keep track of what players are performing in camp and preseason and what the drafting trends are as their own drafts approach.

[Azazello1313]

I think that what these early lists, and our comments on the mso far show, is that this year, more so than any year in recent memory, has no "set" top x number of RBs. In most year's past, there was a clear cut 3-4 RBs that for sure went 1-4 in most drafts. Not so this year. I've seen guys like MJD, LT, Turner, Westbrook, DeAngelo and Forte thrown around anywhere from #2 to #10 (even lower by some).

 

Basically the only one that seems clear cut is AP.

 

This will make the offseason all the more enjoyable, and important to the astute FF player, to keep track of what players are performing in camp and preseason and what the drafting trends are as their own drafts approach.

 

yup. but at the same time, things will crystalize a great deal between now and most drafts. a greater consensus will start to emerge.

[irish]

yup. but at the same time, things will crystalize a great deal between now and most drafts. a greater consensus will start to emerge.

 

This is a thought that I had in regard to things crystalizing this summer right around or before some drafts. I have waivered on my viewpoint as to whether or not that will actually happen and if it does, will it be because things with NFL teams got clearer, because many Fantasy Publications/websites have their rankings a certain way or just because so many drafts have taken place and ADPs are released and get viewed as "standard"? I look at it this way, other than injury, what could get clearer about the situations with DeAngelo Williams, Brian Westbrook, Matt Forte, MJD, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, etc. that will allow things to crystalize and create a "standard" drafting slot for the crew as a whole? I mean even though they were possibly taken in a different order, the RBs in recent years for the first 3-5 picks were pretty much expected. LT, ADP, Westy, Addai, SJax, Gore and then things would get interesting. Hell, I've seen some mocks done this year already that didn't even have LT taken in the 1st round! I think that's crazy and getting LT in the 2nd round would represent great value (considering he very well could be #1 by season's end). For the most part, ADP seems like a lock to be taken first, for everyone in all draft types and yet he hasn't finished a season ranked their yet. Especially in a PPR league, there are several RBs that should very well rank ahead of him but it's all but guaranteed that he'll go first any way.

 

DeAngelo Williams- People are afraid of how much more involved J. Stewart will be and the fact that they doubt Williams can repeat last year's stats.

 

Brian Westbrook- He's another year older, the knees aren't in the best condition and the Eagles drafted LeSean McCoy.

 

LT- Production has gone down now for several years and he seems to be getting nicked up every season making him miss games or at the very least not be the "LT' that we all knew. Add in Sproles getting more action and the Chargers drafting Gartrell Johnson.

 

Joseph Addai- Has just absolutely burned owners recently and didn't even look as good as Rhodes last year. Also gets nicked up and now the Colts draft Donald Brown to at last share touches and maybe even take his job.

 

Michael Turner- Isn't involved in the passing game at all as Norwood steals away those touches. Got a ton of carries last year. The Falcons have added T-Gon and with White may look to pass a bit more. Gonzo may even steal away some redzone TDs.

 

Matt Forte- After having a great rookie year will he go through a sophomore slump? Can he prove he's for real? Well, I think he did that for an entire season last year and I am really high on him going into this year. With Cutler there now and nobody fighting to really take carries/receptions from him, Forte could very well finish the year as Fantasy's #1 RB.

 

MJD- Like Forte, I love this guy! Freddy T's gone and I think his touches increase and therefore his point production. To me, I don't care if it's Greg Jones who steps up behind him, Rashad Jennings, or a combination of RBs. MJD will be a STUD.

 

Chris Johnson- Still shares with White but is such a talent that he will rank up there with the best of them. Speed, receptions, TDs.

 

Frank Gore- What will the rest of the offense be like? How will the addition of Glen Coffee affect his touches and overall stats? Gore can be a workhorse and is great in PPR leagues.

 

Steven Jackson- Can he last an entire season? He's got the talent and when on the field, ranks up there with the best of them. Again he's also very active in the passing game.

 

ADP- Doesn't get the looks in the passing game and shares with Chester Taylor a bunch. He would also score more TDs if it weren't for Taylor getting looks there as well.

 

So who in my mind has the least amount of concerns and the best opportunity to succeed, especially in a PPR setup?

 

Forte

MJD

Westy

LT

ADP

SJax

Turner

Gore

C. Johnson

D. Williams

Slaton

 

Then guys like-

Barber

Portis

Bush (PPR)

Ronnie Brown

Moreno

Jacobs

P. Thomas

Kevin Smith

Grant

McFadden

T and F Jones

etc...

 

 

I feel that we're all over the place at the Top of the Draft this year as well and I'm not really sure how anything will really be able to settle.

Edited May 30, 2009 by irish

[Big Country]

For the most part, ADP seems like a lock to be taken first, for everyone in all draft types and yet he hasn't finished a season ranked their yet.

 

It's late and been a long week, so I don't feel like addressing any of the other points right now and this may turn in to a ramble of jumbled convuluted thoughts, but, up until last season when Brady became the "man", for the 6-7 years prior, Manning was the consensus #1 QB, yet, he pretty much was never the top scoring QB in a given year in many scoring systems(even his record breaking year, Culpepper outscored him in most standard scoring systems). The reason he was the top ranked QB and top QB taken was consistency, not just in his performance, but in his situation. He consistently performed in the top 5 of QBs, his OL and WRs were consistently solid, his coaching staff and offensive scheme were consistent, so, he was the safest bet to perform at a high level.

 

ADP is that this year for RBs, as LT was for the 4-5 years prior to last year (though LT was pretty much consistently the #1 scoring RB in many scoring systems). His situation is relatively unchanged, and he has put together two solid back to back years. Just about everyone else on the list has one or more legitimate questions around them. Some of those questions may be answered in training camp and preseason when we get a glimpse at how teams may utilize personnel, how recovery from injury is progressing and what affect potential scheme changes may have on a player's ability to contribute.

[irish]

It's late and been a long week, so I don't feel like addressing any of the other points right now and this may turn in to a ramble of jumbled convuluted thoughts, but, up until last season when Brady became the "man", for the 6-7 years prior, Manning was the consensus #1 QB, yet, he pretty much was never the top scoring QB in a given year in many scoring systems(even his record breaking year, Culpepper outscored him in most standard scoring systems). The reason he was the top ranked QB and top QB taken was consistency, not just in his performance, but in his situation. He consistently performed in the top 5 of QBs, his OL and WRs were consistently solid, his coaching staff and offensive scheme were consistent, so, he was the safest bet to perform at a high level.

 

ADP is that this year for RBs, as LT was for the 4-5 years prior to last year (though LT was pretty much consistently the #1 scoring RB in many scoring systems). His situation is relatively unchanged, and he has put together two solid back to back years. Just about everyone else on the list has one or more legitimate questions around them. Some of those questions may be answered in training camp and preseason when we get a glimpse at how teams may utilize personnel, how recovery from injury is progressing and what affect potential scheme changes may have on a player's ability to contribute.

 

Your point above is that ADP provides the most consistent RB in this year's draft and that's exactly where I have issue with him. I think that because he's thrown up a couple HUGH games in his time in the NFL, that his numbers are a bit skewed (especially in '07). I know that Forte has only done it for one year and so some doubt him but I just have to look at his production from last year and it's stellar but time will tell. MJD, IMO is as can't miss as anyone else.

-----------------------------------------------------------

 

Let's look at ADP's numbers from the last 2 years. In '07 Peterson missed 2 games and therefore only played 14 out of 16 games. He tallied about 258 points on the year for an average of 18.4 points per week. At first thought, that's pretty solid. However, let's look at those numbers a bit more closely. He had a 42.3 point game and a 50.5 point game in '07. Take both of those games out of the equation and for the other 12 weeks he averaged only 13.8 points per game for 165.1 points on the season. In the 14 total games he played in '07, ADP had 5 single-digit point games and 3- 10-14 point games. So for more than half of the games he played he scored less than 15 points and in more than half of those he didn't even eclipse 10 points. YIKES!! He did also have 4- 20+ pointers and of course the 2 big games I mentioned before. One of his single point games was a .3 effort. So if we take the 2 HUGH games out and the .3 pointer out, he tallied 164.8 pts on the season over 11 games for an average of 15 ppg.

 

Now let's look at the '08 season. ADP had 3 single digit games and 4- 11-14 pt games. So again, about half of the season he scored 14 points or less per game. He had 4- 16-19 pt games, 4- 20 point games and 1 game over 30 points (31.5 pts). Last year ADP ranked as the 9th best RB in total points in a PPR league and outside the Top 10 (11th) in average points per week.

 

In total, ADP has played 30 games over the last 2 years and this is how it looks-

 

8- single digit games

7 low-mid teens (11-15 pts)

12- 16-26 pt games

3- over 30 (31.5, 42.3, 50.5)

 

So 15 out of his 30 games played (half) over the last 2 years have been at or way below 15 points. About 1/4 of them have been single digit. So the question is- Is he really the most consistent RB to have this year? And my answer is a resounding no and I didn't even get into his pathetic reception totals. '07- 19 total receptions (1.35 per game) and '08- 21 total receptions (1.3 per game). So he's consistently bad in the passing game has only had TD totals of 13 ('07) and 10 ('08). Seems like more of a hit or miss guy to me.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Now let's look at Matt Forte's numbers from last year. Forte DID NOT have one single digit game all year- NOT 1. He had only 4- 10-14 point games on the year, 5- 15-19 point games and 7- 20+ pointers. So 12 out of the 16 games he played last year were 15-28 point outputs. No that's consistent!! Let me also mention that he was targetted in the passing game almost 80 times and caught 64 of those passes. I also heard some people talk about how his production tailed off at the end of last year- not true. Forte scored 307 points on the season or 19.22 pts per game avg. In the final six weeks of the season, he scored 123.5 points for an average of 20.6 ppg (greater than his season average) and 4 of those 6 games were over 20 points.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Let's look at MJD's stats (which I have already done in another thread). He had 4- single digit point games, 3- 10-14 point games, 1- 15 pt game and 8- 20+ pt games (about double the amount of ADP's in either '07 or '08). So for half of the season last year, MJD scored more than 20 points per game and in 12 out of 16 games he scored over 10 points. Let's also mention that he was targetted 80 times in the passing game last year and caught 62 of those passes.

 

So in my eyes, in PPR leagues (which is all I play in), both Forte and MJD are not only better choices but more consistent ones as well in terms of week in and week out reliable production. I'm sure I could've even found a couple other guys (Westy, Williams, LT, Slaton) to add here but I just don't have the time at the moment.

Edited May 30, 2009 by irish

[dirtdickens]

The June edition for me:

1 RB Adrian Peterson, MIN

2 RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX

3 RB Michael Turner, ATL

4 RB Matt Forte, CHI

5 RB Steven Jackson, STL

6 WR Fitz, ARI

7 RB Clinton Portis, WAS

8 WR Andre Johnson, HOU

9 RB DeAngelo Williams, CAR

10 WR Randy Moss

11 WR RWhite, ATL

12 RB ChJohnson, TEN

13 RB Steve Slaton, HOU

14 RB Westbrook, PHI

15 WR Greg Jennings

16 RB Frank Gore

17 QB Drew Brees

18 RB Pierre Thomas, NO

19 WR Megatron

20 RB LT

21 WR Reggie Wayne

22 QB Tom Brady

23 RB Brandon Jacobs, NY

24 RB Felix Jones, DAL

[westvirginia]

looking at these lists, I am consistently seeing matt forte and calvin johnson severely underrated IMO.

 

Calvin Johnson absolutely. I might be crazy, and I certainly could be missing something, but I'm just not as sold on Forte as other folks. I think a lot of his numbers came from more quantity than quality. I didn't see a whole lotta bears games, but