DMD Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 I just went through a draft and for the second time this year, I was surprised how much the draft did not follow the results of the previous season until I finally realized something. I was in a draft that had no PPR last week and was shocked how many early WR went. This week was in a PPR league and one that is usually a reliable harbinger of drafts to come. There were 11 straight RB's taken to open it up and that is no surprise. But then 11 of the next 14 picks were all WR. The first 36 picks (3 rounds) had 18 RB, 17 WR and 1 QB. Wow! Last year in this league - remember following the pass happy 2007 with Brady setting records - it was 4 QB, 20 RB and 12 WR drafted. The previous season to that (which followed a run happy year of LT setting records) had 1 QB, 26 RB and 9 WR. RB's and WR's almost equally taken in the first three rounds? Is everyone expecting a huge passing year despite not coming off one? I would say no. I contend this is all a result of one thing - the lack of clear cut, "feel good about" running backs. After the first dozen are taken, there are a lot of wideouts out there you know you can feel pretty good about and yet not so much with RBs. Plus last year had so many RBs come out of nowhere to end up as top scorers - Deangleo Williams, Turner, Forte, T. Jones, Slaton, Chris Johnson, etc. while the "known studs" mostly disappointed. I have never seen this in my 20 years of playing FF. IT IS A GOOD THING TO KNOW GOING INTO DRAFTS IF IT HOLDS TRUE. Round 2 better be a WR for you or you just won't get a decent one at this rate. Luckily I had planned on taking 2 with my 2nd and 3rd picks. RBs - albeit with risk - last into the 8th round. I have never seen RBs last so long. In previous years, after the 5th round you were taking backup and handcuff RBs. Not guys who may start the year as the starter for their team. We were to build 14 man teams for now and this is what I ended up with: QB Carson Palmer (7.09) QB Jake Delhomme RB DeAngelo Williams (1.09) RB Kevin Smith (4.04) RB Chris Wells (6.04) RB Willie Parker (8.04) RB Shonn Greene WR Randy Moss (2.04) WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (3.09) WR Justin Gage WR Bryant Johnson TE Tony Gonzalez (5.09) PK Ryan Longwell DEF TEN I cannot post the results of that draft out of respect to the site that gave it (for a magazine) but here were the first 100 picks for discussion purposes. 1.01 RB Jones-Drew, Maurice (gasp) 1.02 RB Peterson, Adrian 1.03 RB Forte, Matt 1.04 RB Tomlinson, Ladainian 1.05 RB Jackson, Steven 1.06 RB Turner, Michael 1.07 RB Johnson, Chris 1.08 RB Westbrook, Brian 1.09 RB Williams, DeAngelo 1.10 RB Gore, Frank 1.11 RB Barber, Marion 1.12 WR Fitzgerald, Larry 2.01 WR Johnson, Andre 2.02 WR Johnson, Calvin 2.03 RB Slaton, Steve 2.04 WR Moss, Randy 2.05 WR Wayne, Reggie 2.06 WR Boldin, Anquan 2.07 RB Portis, Clinton 2.08 RB Jacobs, Brandon 2.09 WR Smith, Steve 2.10 WR Jennings, Greg 2.11 WR White, Roddy 2.12 WR Colston, Marques 3.01 WR Bowe, Dwayne 3.02 RB Brown, Ronnie 3.03 WR Marshall, Brandon 3.04 RB Bush, Reggie 3.05 WR Owens, Terrell 3.06 QB Brees, Drew 3.07 RB Thomas, Pierre 3.08 WR Welker, Wes 3.09 WR Houshmandzadeh, T.J. 3.10 WR Bryant, Antonio 3.11 WR Williams, Roy 3.12 RB Addai, Joseph 4.01 RB Moreno, Knowshon 4.02 RB Ward, Derrick 4.03 QB Brady, Tom 4.04 RB Smith, Kevin 4.05 RB Grant, Ryan 4.06 RB Lynch, Marshawn 4.07 WR Jackson, Vincent 4.08 TE Witten, Jason 4.09 WR Edwards, Braylon 4.10 RB McFadden, Darren 4.11 TE Gates, Antonio 4.12 WR Ocho Cinco, Chad 5.01 QB Manning, Peyton 5.02 WR Gonzalez, Anthony 5.03 QB Rivers, Philip 5.04 QB Rodgers, Aaron 5.05 RB Jones, Thomas 5.06 WR Ward, Hines 5.07 WR Royal, Eddie 5.08 WR Holmes, Santonio 5.09 TE Gonzalez, Tony 5.10 WR Evans, Lee 5.11 WR Jackson, DeSean 5.12 RB Johnson, Larry 6.01 QB Warner, Kurt 6.02 TE Clark, Dallas 6.03 TE Daniels, Owen 6.04 RB Wells, Chris 6.05 WR Avery, Donnie 6.06 WR Moss, Santana 6.07 WR Moore, Lance 6.08 QB McNabb, Donovan 6.09 WR Berrian, Bernard 6.10 RB White, LenDale 6.11 QB Romo, Tony 6.12 RB Stewart, Jonathan 7.01 RB Brown, Donald 7.02 WR Holt, Torry 7.03 TE Olsen, Greg 7.04 RB Sproles, Darren 7.05 WR Hester, Devin 7.06 TE Winslow, Kellen 7.07 RB Jackson, Fred 7.08 QB Cutler, Jay 7.09 QB Palmer, Carson 7.10 WR Cotchery, Jerricho 7.11 RB Jones, Felix 7.12 WR Coles, Laveranues 8.01 RB Benson, Cedric 8.02 QB Ryan, Matt 8.03 RB Washington, Leon 8.04 RB Parker, Willie 8.05 TE Cooley, Chris 8.06 QB Schaub, Matt 8.07 WR Mason, Derrick 8.08 WR Walter, Kevin 8.09 RB McGahee, Willis 8.10 WR Breaston, Steve 8.11 RB Jones, Julius 8.12 RB Rice, Ray 9.01 TE Keller, Dustin 9.02 WR Driver, Donald 9.03 RB Graham, Earnest 9.04 WR Clayton, Mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 Hmmm...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh B Tool Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 wow looks as if the koolaid was spiked Pierre Thomas ahead of Lynch, Jones and Addai? Peyton going 5:1? People just throwing darts at their cheatsheets? If that is a harbinger, then I am drinking heavily and hoping for the best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 If that is a harbinger, then I am drinking heavily and hoping for the best Like in the Fusion rookie draft? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 Like in the Fusion rookie draft? And...like in the ECB drafts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 RB's and WR's almost equally taken in the first three rounds? Is everyone expecting a huge passing year despite not coming off one? Maybe people are catching on to the notion that RB and WR score at pretty equal levels in PPR scoring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 SSSSSSSSSShhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robash Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 Maybe people are catching on to the notion that RB and WR score at pretty equal levels in PPR scoring. RBs are a think of the past...the fantasy football spread offense is where its at, 1 RB 4 WR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 RBs are a think of the past...the fantasy football spread offense is where its at, 1 RB 4 WR Or 0 RB's and 5 WR's as in ATAP and AOTAOP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robash Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 Or 0 RB's and 5 WR's as in ATAP and AOTAOP. was gonna post that but last time i brought it up the guys hooked on the RB kool-aid laughed at me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skippy Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 Maybe I am the one on the koolaid but in those middle rounds lots of things seem way out of place to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 Or 0 RB's and 5 WR's as in ATAP and AOTAOP. Makes for some great fun & superb competition in big leagues, doesn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 (edited) vantage Maybe I am the one on the koolaid but in those middle rounds lots of things seem way out of place to me. RB values dominate WR value in ppr league until about RB/WR16-20 in most leagues, and then WRs get more valuable - the real good FFers have known this for a while and have used it to their advantage. With more guys getting FF savvy, now it becomes a challenge of taking the lesser but generally more stable late RB2/RB3 scoring vs the more lucrative but less stable WR3/WR4 scoring in the midrounds - and doing homework to see which guys are going to outperform their ADPs in the mid to late rounds to move up the food chain. It can really negate the stud RB owner's advantage and even the playing field completely. Great stuff... Edited May 16, 2009 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 1.01 RB Jones-Drew, Maurice (gasp) Looks as if Capt. Stanky had the 1st overall pick in this draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 This MJD thing is out of hand. People are crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 (edited) You can draft your RBs in the start of the 3rd round by getting the sleepers. Chris Johnson's season last year for example. Edited May 16, 2009 by WaterMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted May 16, 2009 Author Share Posted May 16, 2009 This MJD thing is out of hand. People are crazy. I admit I like MJD more this year than ever before, but I could not believe it when he picked him. I was somewhat aurprised DeAngelo Williams fell to me at #9 after being almost unstoppable last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 was gonna post that but last time i brought it up the guys hooked on the RB kool-aid laughed at me Thats not why they were laughing at you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 The RBBC is dismantling Fantasy Football as we know it. The RB pool is far deeper than in previous years (as pertains to the draft) and it's increasing the value of the top 5 WR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbimm Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 vantage RB values dominate WR value in ppr league until about RB/WR16-20 in most leagues, and then WRs get more valuable - the real good FFers have known this for a while and have used it to their advantage. With more guys getting FF savvy, now it becomes a challenge of taking the lesser but generally more stable late RB2/RB3 scoring vs the more lucrative but less stable WR3/WR4 scoring in the midrounds - and doing homework to see which guys are going to outperform their ADPs in the mid to late rounds to move up the food chain. It can really negate the stud RB owner's advantage and even the playing field completely. Great stuff... This from the guy that drafted like 37 RB's in ATAP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 (edited) This from the guy that drafted like 37 RB's in ATAP. No kidding. But those guys fell way too far and were by far the best value on the board when I took them (IMNSHO, of course). It gets to the point where you just can't let the guy sit there any longer. Look at what I was drafting there - rookie RBs in the 6 to 10 range while people were bypassing them for rookie WRs 18-24. Seriously, that's nuts. At least half those WRs drafted before I took Goodson at the 79th player off the board will crap out. In the meantime, I've got 3 RBs who completely capable of being a valuable part of a RBBC, and have enough talent where any one of them could eventually be in the top 4 RBs in this class once it is all said & done and we measure careers against each other. I think that's the unintended consequence of this trend now that people have caught on - RBBC RBs in some cases are going to fall way too far. Look at the BAL RBs above. Both in the 8th round? Are you kidding me? You trade down, pick up an extra late 7th/early 8th, draft both guys and then use your last pick on Peerman and let the whole thing shake out. Keep the top 2 once the season starts and open up a slot for a WW pickup that went undrafted and suddenly is looking good in week 1/2. That's money for your #2 RB and you used 7 spots to fill your roster with your QB1, RB1, WR1, WR2, WR3, and flex RB/WR/TE to that point. Drafting that way will give you strength & depth simultaneously. Edited May 16, 2009 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted May 16, 2009 Author Share Posted May 16, 2009 Look at the BAL RBs above. Both in the 8th round? Are you kidding me? You trade down, pick up an extra late 7th/early 8th, draft both guys and then use your last pick on Peerman and let the whole thing shake out. Keep the top 2 once the season starts and open up a slot for a WW pickup that went undrafted and suddenly is looking good in week 1/2. That's money for your #2 RB and you used 7 spots to fill your roster with your QB1, RB1, WR1, WR2, WR3, and flex RB/WR/TE to that point. Drafting that way will give you strength & depth simultaneously. But can you afford to lose a few games as the situation unfolds in BAL? Can you rely on it even if it appears to be solidified as it changed last season? In 2008, McClain had the most carries in 8 games, Rice had 2 and McGahee had 6. What makes you think that won't just continue? Above all - I hate starting the season not being sure who the team RB to get really is. And there are a lot of those situations in the NFL this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 But can you afford to lose a few games as the situation unfolds in BAL? Can you rely on it even if it appears to be solidified as it changed last season? In 2008, McClain had the most carries in 8 games, Rice had 2 and McGahee had 6. What makes you think that won't just continue? Above all - I hate starting the season not being sure who the team RB to get really is. And there are a lot of those situations in the NFL this year. Unless I miss my guess and Peerman is a flop, McClain is going to be playing FB all year. The McGahee situation is still fluid but should be resolved by August, and I am fairly convinced that this will shake down to 3 players at most by the time redrafts hit full stride. Again, in the meantime, your starting lineup is in place for week 1 and the BAL RBs likely become a very lucrative addition to your starters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Cracker Posted May 16, 2009 Share Posted May 16, 2009 It is much harder to draft a sleeper WR that will be productive in later rounds than it is a RB. Even more lately so this shift makes sense. A late 1st round pick in a redraft would almost do better to take 2 WR and load up on RB sleepers since there is a higher probability of them working out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted May 16, 2009 Author Share Posted May 16, 2009 What I do love about this development is that it not only attends to building a complete team instead of just the best RBs you can get plus whatever, it actually takes away one of the huge advantages of having the first or second pick in the draft. In previous years, you could snap up LT (or whatever ultra-RB you want) and then with your second and third picks, you would be able to grab one or two top three wideouts. Now you appropriately get either a average RB2 or a less than average WR1. I just hated seeing the first pick guy scoop the best RB then the best WR and QB in a draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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