Rankings

[Randall]

He's #73, behind Buckhalter and Brandon Jackson. Booker and McCalin(he's now a FB) are ahead of him as are most of the other rookies.

 

Why so low?

[Bronco Billy]

Someone obviously loves Thomas Jones. Apparently they haven't taken into account that Ryan is positively smitten with Greene.

[G.K.Trey]

because hes the # 3 rb?

[DMD]

Right - because right now he is #3 behind Jones and Washington who are both unhappy with their contracts. Greene had no experience as a reciever in college so he is not going to cut into Leon Washington's time (assuming he does not hold out). So he goes against Thomas Jones and right now I do not see it being a three way committee. Greene is certainly Jones backup. He may replace him in 2010. But so far it is Washington and Jones playing anf Greene mostly watching. I drafted Greene in one league hoping he does play and that Jones either gets traded or holdouts or gets hurt. But right now, Greene is not a factor to me. They talked up Greene some as they often do for rookies. But until Jones is gone or otherwise out of the way, Greene is not a good bet for fantasy points.

[Randall]

Right - because right now he is #3 behind Jones and Washington who are both unhappy with their contracts. Greene had no experience as a reciever in college so he is not going to cut into Leon Washington's time (assuming he does not hold out). So he goes against Thomas Jones and right now I do not see it being a three way committee. Greene is certainly Jones backup. He may replace him in 2010. But so far it is Washington and Jones playing anf Greene mostly watching. I drafted Greene in one league hoping he does play and that Jones either gets traded or holdouts or gets hurt. But right now, Greene is not a factor to me. They talked up Greene some as they often do for rookies. But until Jones is gone or otherwise out of the way, Greene is not a good bet for fantasy points.

 

I understand those things. But Lorenzo Booker's a better bet?

 

 

OK man.

[Bronco Billy]

They talked up Greene some as they often do for rookies. But until Jones is gone or otherwise out of the way, Greene is not a good bet for fantasy points.

 

They talked up Greene because he is a dominating hammer between the tackles. He probably won't catch many passes - although given his role in college we really don't have a good grasp whether he is capable of amassing something like 25-30 catches in a year where he gets the bulk of the rushing work. But he is a perfect fit as the main RB with Washington spelling him and acting as the 3rd down RB.

 

A few things to think about in this situation:

 

1) Jones is in the last year of his contract and the Jets would save about $800,000 by cutting him rather than carrying him. That's not a hugh amount, but it also precludes Jones being a lock for a roster spot if he pouts or underperforms, or if Greene flat out steals his spot.

 

2) Because of the cap situation, the Jets can afford to take a long leisurely look at both Jones and Greene and see which fits better. If Jones does end up on the outs, it won't be until very late in the preseason.

 

3) Jones was lined up for a hold out until he and his agent got a look at Greene performing in OTAs. Jones cut his hold out way short and got back into camp. He's clearly worried about Greene.

 

4) Ryan is a smash mouth coach. He's going to try to run the ball down people's throats and win with running & D - especially with either a very limited Clemens or a rookie Sanchez under center. If anyone wins the featured RB spot, he'll get a lot of work. That also means all 3 RBs will get work with the most effective guy that week being the guy who gets the ball the most that week - just like BAL did last year. But given Ryan's nature, Greene is much more suited to where Ryan wants to take the team (ie - play the McClain role).

 

5) The Jets reportedly had Greene at the top of their draft board. I think that goes as much to show where Ryan wants to take the O as well as how much they regarded him. If I'm not mistaken, I think Mayock liked him quite a bit also, and given that Mayock does his homework and then some, that is a pretty fair endorsement.

 

David could be right (I had to say that - it's his freakin' sight ) but it wouldn't suprise me in the least to see Greene end up with the most rushing yds and rushing TDs of the 3 by the end of the year. And I definitely think that he'll finish a lot higher than #73 regardless of how the whole thing shakes out unless he simply is not NFL capable.

Edited June 11, 2009 by Bronco Billy

[DMD]

I understand those things. But Lorenzo Booker's a better bet?

 

 

OK man.

 

The difference between #69 and #73 is really nothing but Greene is tagged as having upside whereas Booker does not. Both players are #3 for their teams. I'd love to move Greene up as soon as I see something that strongly indicates he will have a significant role this year and that Jones/Washington are somehow going to not do as much so that the #3 RB has fantasy significance. I'd love to see them ship Jones out but as for right now, do not see it happening. I did a lot of research on every team for the rankings and unless something happens, just do not see Greene doing much this year.

[skylive5]

I did a lot of research on every team for the rankings ....

 

Huh. And all this time I thought you just threw all the names in a hat and ranked them according to how you pulled them out so you could generate discussion.

[Bronco Billy]

That's it!

 

DMD vs BB!

[Randall]

The difference between #69 and #73 is really nothing but Greene is tagged as having upside whereas Booker does not. Both players are #3 for their teams. I'd love to move Greene up as soon as I see something that strongly indicates he will have a significant role this year and that Jones/Washington are somehow going to not do as much so that the #3 RB has fantasy significance. I'd love to see them ship Jones out but as for right now, do not see it happening. I did a lot of research on every team for the rankings and unless something happens, just do not see Greene doing much this year.

 

 

I know you do. I don't question rankings very often but thought he should be higher. Not real high but about 50.

 

I look at the projections too and see the differences between a lot of the lower players.

 

This is from a Newsday Blog on the last day of minicamp. I see Ryan running more of a smashmouth offense and neither TJ or Washington are that kind of back.

 

"It looks like the Jets are preparing Shonn Greene to be Thomas Jones' successor, whenever that will take place. While Jones was working on goal line carries with the first team offense, the Jets made sure that Greene was right behind him watching. The Jets then turned to Greene, not Leon Washington, for the remainder of the goal line carries."

[G.K.Trey]

I know you do. I don't question rankings very often but thought he should be higher. Not real high but about 50.

 

I look at the projections too and see the differences between a lot of the lower players.

 

This is from a Newsday Blog on the last day of minicamp. I see Ryan running more of a smashmouth offense and neither TJ or Washington are that kind of back.

 

"It looks like the Jets are preparing Shonn Greene to be Thomas Jones' successor, whenever that will take place. While Jones was working on goal line carries with the first team offense, the Jets made sure that Greene was right behind him watching. The Jets then turned to Greene, not Leon Washington, for the remainder of the goal line carries."

 

nobody expects Washington to see any goalline carries , so file this under not news at all.

[Jackass]

They talked up Greene because he is a dominating hammer between the tackles. He probably won't catch many passes - although given his role in college we really don't have a good grasp whether he is capable of amassing something like 25-30 catches in a year where he gets the bulk of the rushing work. But he is a perfect fit as the main RB with Washington spelling him and acting as the 3rd down RB.

 

A few things to think about in this situation:

 

1) Jones is in the last year of his contract and the Jets would save about $800,000 by cutting him rather than carrying him. That's not a hugh amount, but it also precludes Jones being a lock for a roster spot if he pouts or underperforms, or if Greene flat out steals his spot.

 

2) Because of the cap situation, the Jets can afford to take a long leisurely look at both Jones and Greene and see which fits better. If Jones does end up on the outs, it won't be until very late in the preseason.

 

3) Jones was lined up for a hold out until he and his agent got a look at Greene performing in OTAs. Jones cut his hold out way short and got back into camp. He's clearly worried about Greene.

 

4) Ryan is a smash mouth coach. He's going to try to run the ball down people's throats and win with running & D - especially with either a very limited Clemens or a rookie Sanchez under center. If anyone wins the featured RB spot, he'll get a lot of work. That also means all 3 RBs will get work with the most effective guy that week being the guy who gets the ball the most that week - just like BAL did last year. But given Ryan's nature, Greene is much more suited to where Ryan wants to take the team (ie - play the McClain role).

 

5) The Jets reportedly had Greene at the top of their draft board. I think that goes as much to show where Ryan wants to take the O as well as how much they regarded him. If I'm not mistaken, I think Mayock liked him quite a bit also, and given that Mayock does his homework and then some, that is a pretty fair endorsement.

 

David could be right (I had to say that - it's his freakin' sight ) but it wouldn't suprise me in the least to see Greene end up with the most rushing yds and rushing TDs of the 3 by the end of the year. And I definitely think that he'll finish a lot higher than #73 regardless of how the whole thing shakes out unless he simply is not NFL capable.

 

Here's one important thing to think about. Jones is a better rb. There is absolutely no way they are going to cut him (especially at that salary) and just hand the starting job to a rookie. Not to mention with a rookie franchise qb back there, they're gonna want to make sure the rb knows his pass protection assignments.

[The Wolf]

nobody expects Washington to see any goalline carries , so file this under not news at all.

 

I recall him getting a couple last year, and looked on his situational stats page on nfl.com. Maybe BB, Keg or BJ can turn up the exact number, but of his 76 carries last season, 22 were within the opponent's 20 yard line. Unfortunately, that does not really validate or disprove GKT's point above, so maybe someone else with a higher football statistical research IQ can pitch in?

[Randall]

nobody expects Washington to see any goalline carries , so file this under not news at all.

 

 

This was for what DMD said. He considered Greene the #3 back but with this group of running backs he is more than that.

[Randall]

I recall him getting a couple last year, and looked on his situational stats page on nfl.com. Maybe BB, Keg or BJ can turn up the exact number, but of his 76 carries last season, 22 were within the opponent's 20 yard line. Unfortunately, that does not really validate or disprove GKT's point above, so maybe someone else with a higher football statistical research IQ can pitch in?

 

 

Inside the opponents 10 I have Leon with 10 rushes and 2 TD's.

TJ had 30 runs with 9 TD's.

 

Inside the 20

Leon 25 rushes and 3 TD's.

TJ had 62 rushes and 11 TD's,

 

 

Both were close in yards per carry. Leon is a little better.

[Bronco Billy]

Here's one important thing to think about. Jones is a better rb.

 

 

Really?

[Gopher]

I don't see how anyone could claim that Jones isn't a better RB, at least at the NFL level, considering Greene has ZERO total carries in his NFL career. Rookie RB's being touted as the next best thing are a dime a dozen... the percentage that actually meet those expectations, at least in that rookie season, is pretty low. I'm not saying he should or shouldn't be below Booker, but the idea that it's a foregone conclusion that Greene is better than Jones is a bit premature, to say the least.

 

A lot has changed, in terms of the Jets offense since last year, for sure. But, we're still talking about a guy (in Jones) that was a top 5-10 fantasy RB last year, regardless of the scoring format. Sure, his current contract situation makes him a risk... But, players who have been in his situation and have gone on to have very successful seasons, putting up solid numbers, are, once again, a dime a dozen.

 

My take on all three:

 

Jones - A bit of a risk, but I'll take my chances on him in any league as my RB2. I would be VERY nervous with him as my #1 RB, though.

 

Washington - Probably the most sure thing of the three, as he's going to get his touches regardless. Great in PPR leagues or leagues that incorporate return scores/yardage into the scoring mix, not nearly as good in leagues that do neither.

 

Greene - Top 5-10 pick in dynasty leagues, with the best-case scenario being that you're able to grab him as a handcuff for Jones. In a redraft, though, I can't see myself taking him as anything more than a 4th or 5th RB, and even then, I'd be hardpressed to take him unless I already had Jones. If not, I think I'd be better off handcuffing one of the backs I did have.

 

I think there's no doubt he's destined to take Jones' job... I just have a very hard time believing it's going to be any sooner than 2010, at least on a full-time basis.

[Gopher]

I'll add that there's a big difference between getting carries inside the 20, and being the back that gets the goal line carries. Goal line backs get the ball on 3rd and goal from the 1 yard line... I don't remember Washington getting too many of those last year. I would venture to guess that Jones will get the majority of those carries again this year, barring injury or a case of fumble-itis.

 

Of course, as someone else mentioned earlier, possibly the most important factor in all of this is how the backs compare in their ability to protect the QB on passing downs. If Greene proves that he is a comparable/better blocker than Jones, his playing time will increase dramatically, I would imagine. If not, he's simply not going to see the field a whole lot, particularly in critical situations (in the red zone, on 3rd down, close games, etc.).

[The Wolf]

My take on all three:

 

Jones - A bit of a risk, but I'll take my chances on him in any league as my RB2. I would be VERY nervous with him as my #1 RB, though.

 

Washington - Probably the most sure thing of the three, as he's going to get his touches regardless. Great in PPR leagues or leagues that incorporate return scores/yardage into the scoring mix, not nearly as good in leagues that do neither.

 

Just to clarify, how is it that Jones is a RB2 but Washington is probably the most sure thing of the three? Are you saying that Washington is a RB1?

[The Wolf]

I'll add that there's a big difference between getting carries inside the 20, and being the back that gets the goal line carries. Goal line backs get the ball on 3rd and goal from the 1 yard line... I don't remember Washington getting too many of those last year. I would venture to guess that Jones will get the majority of those carries again this year, barring injury or a case of fumble-itis.

 

Completely agree here which is why my research above holds no water until the actual goal line carry stats can be found. I'm just not smart enough to find them...!

[Gopher]

Just to clarify, how is it that Jones is a RB2 but Washington is probably the most sure thing of the three? Are you saying that Washington is a RB1?

No... I'm certainly not saying Washington is a #1 back. All I'm saying is that Washington is the guy I would worry about the least, considering where I would be able to most likely draft all three. He'd more than likely be drafted somewhere in the range where RB3's are being taken, and that's where he fits in perfectly... as a backup RB or flex type of player.

[irish]

I also read somewhere that the Jets might use Greene as Dallas used Barber a couple years back in a closer role. Now I'm not really sure how many opportunities they'll have to bring their "closer " in but I could see Greene getting a heavier workload in the 4th qtr to try and run through a tired opposing defense.

Edited June 11, 2009 by irish

[Bronco Billy]

I don't see how anyone could claim that Jones isn't a better RB, at least at the NFL level, considering Greene has ZERO total carries in his NFL career.

 

Ergo, Aveion Cason is a better RB than Knowshon Moreno? Yeah, an extreme example, but that is the logic that you are using. Jones is 31 yrs old and his career ypc is right at the Mendoza line of 4.0. He has been opportunistic in taking the reins of a running game when all other competition defaulted, but he is hardly a stud. He was in the top 5 last season in rushing, but has only just barely cracked the top 10 two other times in his career. His career year last year was preceded by a 2007 season that saw his ypc at 3.6 and him scoring 1 rushing TD. In short, his year last year, given the rest of his career, looks like a fluke. Always expect players with history to regress to their mean following a massive (for them) year.

 

You count on him as your RB2. I'll pass, thanks.

Edited June 11, 2009 by Bronco Billy

[Randall]

I'll add that there's a big difference between getting carries inside the 20, and being the back that gets the goal line carries. Goal line backs get the ball on 3rd and goal from the 1 yard line... I don't remember Washington getting too many of those last year. I would venture to guess that Jones will get the majority of those carries again this year, barring injury or a case of fumble-itis.

 

Of course, as someone else mentioned earlier, possibly the most important factor in all of this is how the backs compare in their ability to protect the QB on passing downs. If Greene proves that he is a comparable/better blocker than Jones, his playing time will increase dramatically, I would imagine. If not, he's simply not going to see the field a whole lot, particularly in critical situations (in the red zone, on 3rd down, close games, etc.).

 

 

 

They can also be goalline backs on 1st and 2nd downs.

 

I spoke up because in projections Greene also has 120 yards and 3 TD's for the year. That's less than 8 yards a game.

[DMD]

They can also be goalline backs on 1st and 2nd downs.

 

I spoke up because in projections Greene also has 120 yards and 3 TD's for the year. That's less than 8 yards a game.

 

It's more like saying he won't be used in every game as the #3 back.