Randall Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 I know most like Andre or Fitz but it could very well be Steve Smith. Last year 4 times he was caught inside the 3 and RB's got the TD's. He would have had 1621 yards(#1) if you project out his 101 yards per game to 16 games. Even missing 2 games he finished only 10 yards behind Fitz. I'm not saying he will be #1. I do like Andre, Fitz and Moss, but he is the only WR to average over 100 yards per game last year. Any other WR's you think will be #1? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 but smitty has only done it once...that's the mantra, right :oldrolleyes: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 He still should be a top tier WR, but I think the running game will start to take more of a toll on his consistency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 I don't much care for his QB either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Paging Waterman..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electricrelish Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 I don't much care for his QB either. Yes, but the remarkable thing is that Smitty has put up just good numbers despite a so-so QB, and on a run-first team. They have a very good repore with each other. I like Smitty's chances of being in the top 3 this year if he can play all 16 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Curious note of the day: Smith has his biggest seasons when CAR is winning. When CAR finishes around .500, his production isn't quite as good. That's counterintuitive if you think about teams ahead in games running the ball more to run the clock and control the ball in the second half. When CAR wins (11 or more wins in a year), Smith has the same number of catches per game (5.85 vs 5.86) but his ypc production goes up 18% and his TD production goes up 5%. That's a difference of 227 yds in a 16 game season, which is the difference between Smith being an elite FF WR or a solid WR1. I see CAR as being near the top of the NFC again this year, so I should move Smith up a couple of notches (I've always been a Smith fan), but I think his TDs (or lack of them) will keep him from being the top FF WR in the league this year. But top 5? I'd agree with that. This year I think Moss is the guy to watch. He's one year off that mammoth season, and even with Brady hurt last year he put up very solid numbers. I worry about Fitz's success being tied to Warner, and what happens to him if Leinart is forced to start due to injury (as well as the emergence of Breaston as a third very legitimate target), and Andre Johnson has the same issue Smith does - a lack of receiving TDs. I'd keep a close eye on Wayne now that Harrison is finally gone, keep an eye on Colston as well with Brees in the pass happy NO O, and I'd also watch Calvin Johnson entering his third year if Culpepper holds off Stafford for the starting QB spot. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if any of those three ended up being the top FF WR by the end of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spider321 Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Over 90 receptions - ONCE in his career. Double-digit TD's - ONCE in his career Steve Smith - most overrated WR in the NFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Yea, I lost a few games last year that I would've won if Smith didn't get caught on the 1.5 yard line and the next play go to a RB. That being said.... SHHHHHHH!!! Icksnay on the Ittsmay. Waterman, come talk about Moss and get this back to it's normal Moss, Fitz, & Andre rodeo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Curious note of the day: Smith has his biggest seasons when CAR is winning. When CAR finishes around .500, his production isn't quite as good. That's counterintuitive if you think about teams ahead in games running the ball more to run the clock and control the ball in the second half. When CAR wins (11 or more wins in a year), Smith has the same number of catches per game (5.85 vs 5.86) but his ypc production goes up 18% and his TD production goes up 5%. That's a difference of 227 yds in a 16 game season, which is the difference between Smith being an elite FF WR or a solid WR1. I see CAR as being near the top of the NFC again this year, so I should move Smith up a couple of notches (I've always been a Smith fan), but I think his TDs (or lack of them) will keep him from being the top FF WR in the league this year. But top 5? I'd agree with that. This year I think Moss is the guy to watch. He's one year off that mammoth season, and even with Brady hurt last year he put up very solid numbers. I worry about Fitz's success being tied to Warner, and what happens to him if Leinart is forced to start due to injury (as well as the emergence of Breaston as a third very legitimate target), and Andre Johnson has the same issue Smith does - a lack of receiving TDs. I'd keep a close eye on Wayne now that Harrison is finally gone, keep an eye on Colston as well with Brees in the pass happy NO O, and I'd also watch Calvin Johnson entering his third year if Culpepper holds off Stafford for the starting QB spot. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if any of those three ended up being the top FF WR by the end of the year. Read closely, this is good stuff here folks. And to think we only thought you knew about the Denver running game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 And to think we only thought you knew about the Denver running game Nobody knows about the DEN running game, even moreso with McDumbiels in charge. Anyone who pretends to is clearly a moran... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Over 90 receptions - ONCE in his career. Double-digit TD's - ONCE in his career Steve Smith - most overrated WR in the NFL. You are kidding right? Dude has been one of the most consistent WRs in the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Over 90 receptions - ONCE in his career. Double-digit TD's - ONCE in his career Steve Smith - most overrated WR in the NFL. Any WR whose career ypc is 14.4 and who gets targeted 140+ times a year when healthy is a clear WR1 in FF. Not sure how you manage to come to the conclusions that you do... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spider321 Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 (edited) Not sure how you manage to come to the conclusions that you do... Over 90 receptions - ONCE in his career. Double-digit TD's - ONCE in his career. That's how. Edited June 16, 2009 by spider321 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Over 90 receptions - ONCE in his career. Double-digit TD's - ONCE in his career. That's how. Yet still constitently a top 10 WR? What the hell are you talking about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spider321 Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 (edited) Yet still constitently a top 10 WR? What the hell are you talking about? Right. Top 10. Not top 3 like many people predict for him every single season. I never said he wasn't good, just that he is overrated. Edited June 16, 2009 by spider321 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 In one league I am in Smith ranked: (leaving out 2004) 2003 4th 2005 1st 2006 10th 2007 23rd 2008 3rd His 23rd ranking year he had 87-1002-7 Can't hardly ask much more from a WR1 can ya? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 but smitty has only done it once...that's the mantra, right :oldrolleyes: Meanibg keg has liked Steve Smith. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 (edited) I've had the same guy ranked as the top WR for the last 3 or so years and that's Reggie Wayne. The justification is simple, he is the safest pick of any WR because he has a top 2 QB throwing to him, his QB plays every game, he is the clear cut #1 on his team for the last few years and Wayne himself is a top-notch talent at the position. He may not finsih as #1 every season but I bet he's darn close every year and offers the least amount of risk, IMO. When you're picking in the first couple of rounds, managing risk is more important than striving for upside. You can argue that Wayne doesn't have the speed of Smitty or Moss, nor the brawn of T.O. or Andre, but he's consistent and reliable and catches nearly everything. You could also argue that with Tom Moore, Dungy and other coaches gone that the offense may lack consistency - but if that's the case, I think you will see Manning lean on Wayne more and call more of his own plays essentially. I think Wayne has a very good shot at being the #1 WR this season. Edited June 16, 2009 by Brentastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Curious note of the day: Smith has his biggest seasons when CAR is winning. When CAR finishes around .500, his production isn't quite as good. That's counterintuitive if you think about teams ahead in games running the ball more to run the clock and control the ball in the second half. When CAR wins (11 or more wins in a year), Smith has the same number of catches per game (5.85 vs 5.86) but his ypc production goes up 18% and his TD production goes up 5%. That's a difference of 227 yds in a 16 game season, which is the difference between Smith being an elite FF WR or a solid WR1. I see CAR as being near the top of the NFC again this year, so I should move Smith up a couple of notches (I've always been a Smith fan), but I think his TDs (or lack of them) will keep him from being the top FF WR in the league this year. But top 5? I'd agree with that. This year I think Moss is the guy to watch. He's one year off that mammoth season, and even with Brady hurt last year he put up very solid numbers. I worry about Fitz's success being tied to Warner, and what happens to him if Leinart is forced to start due to injury (as well as the emergence of Breaston as a third very legitimate target), and Andre Johnson has the same issue Smith does - a lack of receiving TDs. I'd keep a close eye on Wayne now that Harrison is finally gone, keep an eye on Colston as well with Brees in the pass happy NO O, and I'd also watch Calvin Johnson entering his third year if Culpepper holds off Stafford for the starting QB spot. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if any of those three ended up being the top FF WR by the end of the year. Quite good analysis. If Calvin Johnson was on a real team, He'd be my pick for #1, but until the Lions show some life I think Moss comes out and helps Brady and the rest of the patsies knock that chip off their shoulder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Right. Top 10. Not top 3 like many people predict for him every single season. I never said he wasn't good, just that he is overrated. What in the Seven Hells are you talking about? Steve Smith: 2009 ADP 23.39 (very end of round 2) WR8 2008 ADP 35.18 (very end of round 3) WR9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T_bone65 Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 (edited) What in the Seven Hells are you talking about? Steve Smith: 2009 ADP 23.39 (very end of round 2) WR8 2008 ADP 35.18 (very end of round 3) WR9 Just playing devils advocate here but I think spidy is saying he is a top 10 WR and not a top 3 WR, just like you are saying by WR9 and WR8 Edited June 16, 2009 by T_bone65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Just playing devils advocate here but I think spidy is saying he is a top 10 WR and not a top 3 WR, just like you are saying by WR9 and WR8 Spidey is claiming that "every single season" Smith is projected as a top 3 WR, therefore he is over-rated. My point is that Smith's ADP for the coming season and for 2008 were a top 10 WR (WR8 and WR9), but hardly a consensus top 3 - therefore he is being projected pretty accurately but certainly is not over-rated by the consensus of FF owners as he claims. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robash Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 I know most like Andre or Fitz but it could very well be Steve Smith. Last year 4 times he was caught inside the 3 and RB's got the TD's. He would have had 1621 yards(#1) if you project out his 101 yards per game to 16 games. Even missing 2 games he finished only 10 yards behind Fitz. I'm not saying he will be #1. I do like Andre, Fitz and Moss, but he is the only WR to average over 100 yards per game last year. Any other WR's you think will be #1? well if you want to project numbers for missed games...Boldin would of been the #1 fantasy WR last year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 well if you want to project numbers for missed games...Boldin would of been the #1 fantasy WR last year I'd add Boldin to the list if it weren't for his penchant for getting injured on top of his reliance on Warner for his numbers and that Breaston has emerged (the same arguments two against Fitz as the #1 WR). In 6 seasons, Boldin has only played in 16 games twice. The other 4 seasons he has averaged 12 games played per year - that's a full quarter of a FF season. That goes beyond coincidence and into injury-prone in my mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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