Seahawks21 Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 (edited) Gates and Tomlinson equal two players, with Jackson being at worst the third option. You said fourth option. I really don't care to get into any pissing match with you because I just don't care about or respect anything you say. Thats about what I thought. Call people names and attack their views and them personally for a year and then go run and hide when you piss em off enough that they reply. About par for the course, far as I can tell. You are a class act sir. Edited June 22, 2009 by Seahawks21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 (edited) Guys, geez - just do the math. When SD was having good years & winning the AFC West, Rivers was completing a high-200s number of passes. When SD went to 8-8 last year and struggled, they went into the 310s+. Expecting them to be a winning team this year - which is my primary assumption, it means we ought to be looking at having approximately 290 catches available to the receivers. A healthy Gates takes 80 of those catches. RBs take another 80 catches, leaving 120 total catches for all the WRs combined when you factor in a second TE somewhere. Count 20% of that number going to WRs beyond the top 2 guys. That leaves 96 catches for Jackson and Chambers. Even IF Jackson takes a 60/40 benefit from that split - which I don't think he will, you're looking at Jackson with 58 catches in a very GOOD year for him. At a more reasonable 16.7 ypc rather than the gigantic 18.6 ypc he had last year with all the bombs, you're looking at being reasonable with a good year for Jackson being 970 yds in those 58 catches - and that's when he is getting the benefit of the doubt in almost all decisions regarding appropriation of catches. That makes Jackson the third targeted option on SD and a hit-and-miss WR3 in a FF league - in a best case scenario. Expecting more than that from him isn't rational. Edited June 22, 2009 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 I can't believe I agree with Billy. Nicely done sir. Can we get some predictions/projections from the Jackson supporters. I'm hearing a lot of "#2 receiver with upside" type projections. What kind of stats will at #2 WR with upside put up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 I can't believe I agree with Billy. Nicely done sir. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 The guy lead the playoffs in 07 in receiving, and put up a strong year last year. It's not irrational to think he keeps on improving, which is something he's done each year in the league. Also, Gates hasn't had 80 receptions since 2005, and I think that was because the lack of a WR target. Tomlinson hasn't had over 60 receptions since 2003, so your numbers don't work there. I also think you're missing something when you revert back to when the Chargers had there best years and how many times they threw the ball... Philip Rivers imo finally connected everything and emerged. He's no longer developing into a strong quarterback, he's arrived. That paired with not being able to or wanting rely on Tomlinson as heavily as they did in the past and I see more attempts than what you're projecting, but that's just my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 (edited) Also, Gates hasn't had 80 receptions since 2005, and I think that was because the lack of a WR target.Tomlinson hasn't had over 60 receptions since 2003, so your numbers don't work there. 2008 Chargers RBs catches LT 52 Sproles 29 Hester 12 Tolbert 13 Total 106 catches Gates 60 Manumaleuna 15 So TEs caught 75 passes and RBs caught 106 balls = 181 catches total, leaving 131 catches for WRs in a year where they were playing catch up a lot more than the previous 2 years. 2007 Chargers RBs catches LT 60 Turner 4 Sproles 10 Neal 8 Pinnock 1 Total 83 catches Gates 75 Manumaleuna 10 So TEs caught 85 passes and RBs caught 83 balls = 168 catches total, leaving 113 catches for WRs in a year where they were winning regularly and finished 11-5 2006 Chargers RBs catches LT 56 Turner 3 Neal.17 Total 76 catches Gates 71 Manumaleuna 14 So TEs caught 85 passes and RBs caught 76 balls = 161 catches total, leaving 126 catches for WRs in a year where they were winning a ton and finished 14-2. SD likes playing small ball under Turner in '07 & '08, similar to '06, throwing substantially more to the RBs/TEs combined than to WRs. You want to argue? Fine, give the WRs 130 catches instead of 120 catches, but then also recognize that the Chargers under Turner have never had a WR hit 60 catches in a season. Edited June 22, 2009 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0-16 Again Posted June 22, 2009 Author Share Posted June 22, 2009 (edited) I am thinking 70 - 75 catches, 1,000 - 1,100 yds, & 8 to 10 TD of course I am thinking of keeping him for a 6th round pick in my 14 team league. Edited June 22, 2009 by 0-16 Again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 You want to argue? Actually it's a message board, I was more for discussing things. Jesus, you guys are getting more and more defensive on here. It's like a bunch of women bitching about Oprah or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 Actually it's a message board, I was more for discussing things. Jesus, you guys are getting more and more defensive on here. It's like a bunch of women bitching about Oprah or something. Discussing is for girls and Democrats. FFers argue. Nancy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargerz Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 you're looking at Jackson with 58 catches......970 yds in those 58 catches That's actually better than the Huddle's predictions of 50 catches for 740 yards and 5 TD's. With those numbers VJax really would be a #3 WR, not a #2 WR. I stand corrected. (As a homer I can only hope those projections are low.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 That's actually better than the Huddle's predictions of 50 catches for 740 yards and 5 TD's. With those numbers VJax really would be a #3 WR, not a #2 WR. I stand corrected. (As a homer I can only hope those projections are low.) One key ingredient to what to expect, The AFC West has turned into likely the weakest division in all of football and OAK, DEN and KC appear all headed toward a losing season. That means six times in 2009, SD is not going to have to break a sweat to win the game. That is not to say VJ doesn't get a long bomb or two, but the team doesn't need it in those games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 One key ingredient to what to expect, The AFC West has turned into likely the weakest division in all of football and OAK, DEN and KC appear all headed toward a losing season. That means six times in 2009, SD is not going to have to break a sweat to win the game. That is not to say VJ doesn't get a long bomb or two, but the team doesn't need it in those games. And the Strength of Schedule argument finally comes into play. Sorry guys, argue all you want. Give me all the numbers your number crunching minds can produce. VJ is still the #1 WR on this team. I'll take him as my #2 WR in a 12+ team league all day. All you doubters will be sorry you pass on him for the Devin Hesters of the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 And the Strength of Schedule argument finally comes into play. Sorry guys, argue all you want. Give me all the numbers your number crunching minds can produce. VJ is still the #1 WR on this team. I'll take him as my #2 WR in a 12+ team league all day. All you doubters will be sorry you pass on him for the Devin Hesters of the world. I'm sure we'll take your word for it. Especially after you were so right about Jonathan Stewart last year... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 I'm sure we'll take your word for it. Especially after you were so right about Jonathan Stewart last year... The jury is still out on my boy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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