Kyle Orton

[i_am_the_swammi]

With all the news of Denver RB signings, the loss of Jay Cutler, and the rantings of Brandon Marshall, lost in the shuffle has been the aquisition of Kyle Orton, who quietly had a decent year on a Bears team not know for its prowess thru the air. Though 60+ of those receptions were to Matt Forte, there were times when Orton actually looked like a viable NFL QB.

 

Now he's been thrust into the starting gig in Denver, a team that no doubt will be trailing games with regularity and forced to throw. If Marhsall stays put, and the defense is as lousy as I think its going to be, I see Orton as one of those mid-to-late round QBs that could have some significant fantasy impact as the season progresses...and could potentially put up top-12 stats, making him fantasy-worthy in almost all formats.

 

Am I missing something?

[Bronco Billy]

With all the news of Denver RB signings, the loss of Jay Cutler, and the rantings of Brandon Marshall, lost in the shuffle has been the aquisition of Kyle Orton, who quietly had a decent year on a Bears team not know for its prowess thru the air. Though 60+ of those receptions were to Matt Forte, there were times when Orton actually looked like a viable NFL QB.

 

Now he's been thrust into the starting gig in Denver, a team that no doubt will be trailing games with regularity and forced to throw. If Marhsall stays put, and the defense is as lousy as I think its going to be, I see Orton as one of those mid-to-late round QBs that could have some significant fantasy impact as the season progresses...and could potentially put up top-12 stats, making him fantasy-worthy in almost all formats.

 

Am I missing something?

 

I don't know if you are missing anything and you are on a good train of thought, IMO. I do think you may be overestimating Orton's capabilities despite the probable necessity for him to throw more than normal in the second half of games, and you may miss that DEN is beig revamped completely and will have significant growing pains at what is likely by all accounts so far to be an extremely complicated playbook/offense.

 

I'm projecting Orton at 521 attempts, 6.40 ypa, 0.033 paTD/att, and 58% completions. That puts him at 302 completions in 521 attempts for 3334 yards and 18 passing TDs.

 

While that may seem a bit conservative, I'd point out that this would project into career highs in all aforementioned categories for him and the categories aren't normally subject to large increases since they are tied so intricately to QB ability as well as system/coaching - so I might actually be a bit high on him. I'm also projecting him for by far the lion's share of thye QB numbers available in DEN, so if Simms gets more than 30 attempts that would begin to cut into my projections.

 

Those kinds of numbers would most likely put him into the QB14-17 range, so starting quality is clearly questionable unless you're talking about a relatively large league.

Edited June 22, 2009 by Bronco Billy

[tazinib1]

Those kinds of numbers would most likely put him into the QB14-17 range, so starting quality is clearly questionable unless you're talking about a relatively large league.

 

 

Exactly where I've placed him as well. A top tier #2 QB. Perfect bye week filler you should be able to get relatively cheap. Of course there will be some Donkie homer that will take him in the 6th or 7th round and claim "What a steal!!".

[DMD]

Orton is sort of an unknown. Granted, he did little in CHI other than manage the game and not lose the football but he was productive in college. The Bears ranked #29 in passes to wideouts last year so that doesn't bode greatly for DEN this year but you have to give Orton a bit of a pass from fitting into the CHI system before. We cannot be completely sure that he can change and become more prolific and the odds would be against it given the evidence, but he's only going to be a #2 FF QB anyway so probably no harm on taking him.

[Seahawks21]

I've got him ranked as my 28th QB. In Chicago, he made hay because nobody gave their passing game any respect whatsoever. Teams built their entire gameplan around stopping Forte. They left every receiving option singled up, daring the Bears to try and throw.They went in to the game saying "stop the running game, make Orton throw the ball to beat us". I doubt he will have that same luxury in Denver, and thus will resort back to the Kyle Orton we all know and loathe.

[westvirginia]

i think you're spot on.

 

A top tier two QB is about right and makes him very viable as the second of a 2-headed QB approach (ala J2V's article).

 

Also consider that DEN's DEF will still suck in general, but will also be far more aggressive and should have at least twice the turnovers from last year's pathetic 13. In addition to better field position from turnovers, our special teams play will be a lot better, so on those rare occassions that the DEf stops someone, count on better field position.

 

 

I think Knowshon Moreno might be a better RB than Forté and on top of that, DEN's OL is definitely better, so I can see teams focusing on our run game the same way.

 

+1 on both accounts. I can't see him being any worse than in Chi, as his O-line, RB and WR options are ALL better in Denver.

[Pope Flick]

+1 on both accounts. I can't see him being any worse than in Chi, as his O-line, RB and WR options are ALL better in Denver.

 

 

If Orton had stayed with the Bears he would have easily had his best season yet. But...he's changing systems and from my understanding you cannot compare Ron Turner's offense v McDaniels and come away with anything less than Orton now has a hell of a lot of new chit to learn. As already mentioned, he'll be asked to throw more because the D isn't likely as stiff as he found in Chicago, which had a team that catered to his in game management abilities, which I do think are quite good. But 'game management' won't be something he'll be expected to do in Denver, he'll be expected to win games and that's where you run into his learning curve of a new system.

 

In short, he might put up decent fantasy numbers, and possibly career highs as BB projected but I suspect he takes more sacks and throws more picks than he ever has before as well. Denver struggles to go 8-8, with a 6 win season a very good possibility - if that.

[Seahawks21]

Moreno is better than Forte?

 

I thought Moreno was the most overrated player in the draft. After watching Forte play last year, Moreno is going to have to be absolutely incredible in order to outperform Forte. I just don't see it. In Denver, teams may actually try to stop the passing game a play or two. That should be enough to scare off somebody of Orton's talent level.

[Bronco Billy]

I thought Moreno was the most overrated player in the draft.

 

I'd like to hear some depth on this assessment.

[westvirginia]

I'd like to hear some depth on this assessment.

 

Oh lawsey, lawsey, lawsey. You just couldn't let it lie, could you?

 

I was all content to ignore him, but noooooooo, BB. You just had to go there.

[Chavez]

Orton is sort of an unknown. Granted, he did little in CHI other than manage the game and not lose the football but he was productive in college. The Bears ranked #29 in passes to wideouts last year so that doesn't bode greatly for DEN this year but you have to give Orton a bit of a pass from fitting into the CHI system before.

Well, he's throwing to better WRs now, with comparable TE talent. I'm sure that will help the cause a bit.

 

I think the key is whether or not McDaniel is truly a wunderkind or merely another Belicheck padawan who isn't so good without Obi-Wan guiding his hand (Crennel, Weis, Mangini). If McDaniel is a fraud, Orton probably doesn't benefit all that much - well, he should get the attempts and yardage but the tds won't be there and the ints might be highly damaging.

 

I think Orton can emerge into a more prolific Trent Dilfer-type - I don't know that he has the elite ability but he always seemed to carry himself and lead the team well enough. BB's 3300 yds and 18 tds seem realistic.

 

We cannot be completely sure that he can change and become more prolific and the odds would be against it given the evidence, but he's only going to be a #2 FF QB anyway so probably no harm on taking him.

I agree here; basically you'd be grabbing him at the cusp of "throw a dart" territory so there's little risk for what might be a moderate-to-high reward.

[Piranha]

I'm not touching this guy this year. Unless Denver comes up with some HUGE talent around him, I don't see much.

In other words, IMO...He's about as talented as Dilfer.

[Chief Dick]

, DEN's OL is definitely better, so I can see teams focusing on our run game the same way.

 

But is it? How much of that blocking scheme will McDaniels retain? If at all.

 

Any ideas yet? Because we can throw out every preconceived notion about the Broncos until we see this offense in action.

[tazinib1]

I'd like to hear some depth on this assessment.

 

+1

 

And make it good. Cause if you throw in the Beanie the Weanie card, all bets are off.

[Seahawks21]

+1

 

And make it good. Cause if you throw in the Beanie the Weanie card, all bets are off.

We'll save that part of the argument for another day. I just don't think Moreno is fast enough, quick enough, or big enough. I didn't think he deserved to have distanced himself from the rest of the rookie RB pack.

[tazinib1]

We'll save that part of the argument for another day. I just don't think Moreno is fast enough, quick enough, or big enough. I didn't think he deserved to have distanced himself from the rest of the rookie RB pack.

 

Fair enough. Anything different and I'd sick your avatar on you. I've worked with him and he's a 5th degree black belt in Jujitsu.

[Azazello1313]

except in a 16+ team or very deep roster league, I think I would take a complete pass unless marshall somehow stays put. I just don't see much upside to his situation. maybe a very late round flyer, but I wouldn't be very happy with him as a primary backup in a 12 team league.

[NAUgrad]

So I read an article recently. No link, sorry about that. It mentioned that McDaniels has a history of putting together an air it out ind of offense. However, It looks more like he's setting up the offense to be more of a grind it out philosophy. The line is in good shape to be effective run blocking and Moreno has the power to fit that kind of scheme.

 

Time will tell, but certainly something to watch in August.

[dmarc117]

the guy cant throw the deep ball. maybe the thin air will help with that.

[Azazello1313]

Last year, he was a top 20 QB in FF scoring with an OL and WR group that wasn't as good as DEN's (even if Marshall leaves).

 

that is not readily apparent to me. denver still has a very nice OL. I am a royal fan, but I don't see him as anything more than a good #2 WR. stokely is pretty nifty in the limited role as a #3 slot guy. bottom line, IMO, is that their WR corps goes from very good to awful simply by subtracting marshall, because it forces players into roles for which they are not suited.

 

in chicago, forte is one of the best receiving RBs in the game, their TEs are excellent receivers. yeah their wideouts are weak, but not much weaker than the broncos minus marshall. and their OL is pretty good too. orton is also changing teams and systems. so I see a similar statistical situation for orton last year to this year. the celing is a mediocre bye week fill-in. the downside is a chump who loses his job to chris simms before he ever plays a game for you. I think there are likely to be better options for a backup QB in a 12 team league, even if you're waiting until the last few rounds.