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Who's on third?


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Drafting 2009  

100 members have voted

  1. 1. Who do you take 3rd?

    • Matt Forte - Super Stud or One Year Wonder?
      31
    • Michael Turner - One Year Wonder or Super Stud?
      32
    • Steven Jackson - Never does this well though we always think he will
      9
    • Chris Johnson - Will Sir Speedy carry a bigger load?
      5
    • LaDainian Tomlinson - One more year as a top dog or is it over?
      17
    • None of the above... maybe a wideout
      6


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In almost every draft I have seen so far, either Adrian Peterson or Maurice Jones-Drew have gone in the first two picks. There appears to be a consensus on that it happens so often. But who would you take if you were drafting third? It seems to be the pick that varies the most. If you were drafting third, who would you take in a performance league with PPR?

 

What makes your guy good enough to go third?

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I'm taking Turner over MJD, PPR or not. So this was an easy choice. If someone took MJD #2, I'd have absolutely ZERO worries about taking Turner third. The Falcons have a tough sked, but they are going to feed this guy the ball, and they have a nice little passing offense around him to take the heat off.

 

And, just for poopooandgigles, a note or two on the rest:

 

Forte - I'm a hugh Bears fan, and think the Cutler add will help the offense tremendously overall. But I think Forte will come back down to Earth every so slightly this season. He'll still put up #1 RB numbers, but will experience some decline in his stats.

 

S-Jax - I could actually make a case for him going #3 this season. The Rams schedule is sweet and he should be 100%. The Rams are going to run... alot.

 

Johnson - Sorry, no way. I don't take a guy in a RBBC third. He's a stud for sure, but no way I take him over Turner or S-Jax or even Forte.

 

Tomlinson - No f'in way. I'd take a flier on him if he dropped, but there's absolutely no way I'm taking him third.

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I give L.T. one more year to be a top RB. He's worth the risk because we all know what he's capable of. He's never had a major injury (knee or ankle) and the Chargers have enough offensive weapons where the opposing team cannot stack the box. L.T. just turned 30 yesterday, so if he has one year left, this is it. I usually avoid RBs that have been studdly as long as L.T. has been, but he's special and if anyone is worth the risk, it's him. Combine all of this with the fact that Norv is supposedly gonna give L.T. a heavy load, why not take the chance?

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I give L.T. one more year to be a top RB. He's worth the risk because we all know what he's capable of. He's never had a major injury (knee or ankle) and the Chargers have enough offensive weapons where the opposing team cannot stack the box. L.T. just turned 30 yesterday, so if he has one year left, this is it. I usually avoid RBs that have been studdly as long as L.T. has been, but he's special and if anyone is worth the risk, it's him. Combine all of this with the fact that Norv is supposedly gonna give L.T. a heavy load, why not take the chance?

Because he'll get hurt as a result? :wacko:

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i was 3rd in the mock and took forte. hard to believe a kid with his talent and numbers from last year could be a one-year wonder. i believe the addition of cutler will help open up the running lanes to boost his YPC and it is established that he has the pass catching skills, topping all other RBs last year in receptions. kevin jones may spell him a bit more but i'm thinking that's a good thing as he will be fresher and can break off more longer plays with the offense opening up more.

 

turner doesn't catch the ball enough for PPR, jackson is injury-prone and is on a poor offensive team, johnson has TD vulture white there and while he's an exciting player, he feels too risky for me that high (but could very well perform at that level), and i believe LT has lost that first step that has made him so good in the past. in addition, it doesn't seem like the same fire is there with him.

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I said Turner, he's got plenty left in the tank and no reason to think that offense with Ryan, White, Jenkins and now Gonzo will drop off from last year. To me he's got the best combo of skill, opportunity and supporting cast. I would put Forte right behind him.

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I wouldn't take Jackson in the 1st round at this point. What a colossal disappointment. I wouldn't touch Turner in the top 8 in a PPR. My boss and I were actually discussing this very topic this morning. I guess if I really had to make a pick and couldn't trade down, I would take either Brady or Moss, probably Moss. If you're making me take a running back I'm going with Deangelo. Out of the RB's on the list, Forte. I have LT higher than the others on the list.

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I am not 100% sure on this, but my gut tells me that grabbing DWill is the way to go. People are always looking for a reason not to take a guy.

 

When DWill came out, people couldn't understand why he wasn't jumping into the lead spot over Deshaun Foster. Then when Foster left last year and the team drafted Stewart, everyone threw DWill on the trash heap. This year people are getting ready to do it again.

 

Time has shown that John Fox is going to give the larger share of the load to DWill, and the guy showed what he could do with that last year. Top RB in the league, and he's getting very little respect.

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So I was just looking at some numbers from last year regarding Forte and Turner. I had Turner in one league and he really helped me win it so I'm really high on him. However, when I look at Forte, I think his numbers can actually improve. Most notably in TD's.........he only had 12 last year. There is definitely room for improvement there. He should rush for more yards as well. Catches probably won't increase and actually could drop a little, but overall, Forte is a stud RB with upside. Just my kind of pick.

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You really need to stop posting and start learning.

These posts are the exact reason nobody can stand your troll self.

 

Do you have any actual though to add, or just hunting for people to insult like usual?

 

 

 

I'm sorry for being outside the box, but I can find RB's. What I can't find later in the draft is a QB that will get me 40+ TD's or a WR that will catch 20.

Edited by Seahawks21
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i was 3rd in the mock and took forte. hard to believe a kid with his talent and numbers from last year could be a one-year wonder. i believe the addition of cutler will help open up the running lanes to boost his YPC and it is established that he has the pass catching skills, topping all other RBs last year in receptions. kevin jones may spell him a bit more but i'm thinking that's a good thing as he will be fresher and can break off more longer plays with the offense opening up more.

 

turner doesn't catch the ball enough for PPR, jackson is injury-prone and is on a poor offensive team, johnson has TD vulture white there and while he's an exciting player, he feels too risky for me that high (but could very well perform at that level), and i believe LT has lost that first step that has made him so good in the past. in addition, it doesn't seem like the same fire is there with him.

This is why I also voted for Forte.

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These posts are the exact reason nobody can stand your troll self.

 

Do you have any actual though to add, or just hunting for people to insult like usual?

 

 

 

I'm sorry for being outside the box, but I can find RB's. What I can't find later in the draft is a QB that will get me 40+ TD's or a WR that will catch 20.

 

It's about value. A QB in anything remotely ressembling a traditional scoring system simply doesn't have enough value to be considered with a 1st round pick, much less the third pick on the board. Big Country has posted some outstanding threads about player value. I've posted about it more than once, as have a few others.

 

You've been around here long enough. You should have picked up something about valuing players somewhere along the line.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Put me down for LT. The talk of his demise is silly. He'll be in the top 3 this year.

 

Just turned 30 and has over 15,000 total yards on him, them tires are just about bald. History says RBs hit a wall around this time, and hit it hard.

 

You may be right, but I'd put the odds at no better than 50/50. Very risky when you're talking 3rd pick overall.

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It's about value. A QB in anything remotely ressembling a traditional scoring system simply doesn't have enough value to be considered with a 1st round pick, much less the third pick on the board. Big Country has posted some outstanding threads about player value. I've posted about it more than once, as have a few others.

 

You've been around here long enough. You should have picked up something about valuing players somewhere along the line.

It isn't like I would make this case if I thought Brady would throw for 32 TD's. In a traditional year, I'm with you. If Brady throws 12 more TD's than the next closest, doesn't that change the "value" structure a bit? Wouldn't the difference between him and the average QB be MUCH greater than the differences you would then have by taking a RB? If it were any other QB, with any other WR, and there were more dominant RB's, I'm with you. This year, however, I think I can get a couple of RB's in rounds 2-5 that can get me somewhere close to the value I can get out of a Turner/Jackson/Tomlinson. If I can find those guys, and I'm confident I can, then Brady makes my team just that much better. If I didn't get Brady, I probably wouldn't take a QB until the 6th round or so.

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I voted for Forte.

 

LT and Johnson were "easy" to eliminate (although I do feel LT can bounce back this season). I considered SJax but his injury history made it hard for me to take the chance on him at #3.

 

That left Turner, and I really agonized over the pick. The bottom line is that even if Forte takes a slight step back, it is a PPR and he will still catch more balls than Turner will. I do see more TD's from Forte as well this season, so although Turner will probably outrush him by 300 yards, Forte is the more complete player in a PPR format.

 

IMHO

Edited by The Wolf
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After looking at this thread and my initial post - I was kinda stuck on the options provided. However, after further evaluation, and realizing that in the real world I have more options, I would trade this pick. In fact, anything other than pick #1 (where I'd take ADP), I'd probably trade down to let others make the tough calls. I basically have 5 or so RBs all lumped together and I cannot determine which is the safest pick - when the decision is not clear, I think it's better to let someone else make my decision for me by eliminating my options which allows me to upgrade in round 4 (if I trade the pick).

 

So to sum up, I trade the #2+ pick for a late first then upgrade in round 4 (since drafting in the top 3 already secures me a high round 2 pick).

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After looking at this thread and my initial post - I was kinda stuck on the options provided. However, after further evaluation, and realizing that in the real world I have more options, I would trade this pick. In fact, anything other than pick #1 (where I'd take ADP), I'd probably trade down to let others make the tough calls. I basically have 5 or so RBs all lumped together and I cannot determine which is the safest pick - when the decision is not clear, I think it's better to let someone else make my decision for me by eliminating my options which allows me to upgrade in round 4 (if I trade the pick).

 

So to sum up, I trade the #2+ pick for a late first then upgrade in round 4 (since drafting in the top 3 already secures me a high round 2 pick).

 

If you are trading a first rounder of this caliber, you need a heck of a lot more than simply an upgrade in the 4th to make it happen.

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I suppose it depends on what class of runner you consider LT, but considering the number of rushing yards he has had (11,760) and how that compares to other top runners:

 

Emmitt Smith 18,335

Walter Payton 16,726

Barry Sanders 15,269

Curtis Martin 14.401

 

here are the total numbers from those RBs in the season when they were 30:

 

Emmitt Smith - 1516 Yds 13 TDs

 

Walter Payton - 2052 11 TDs

 

Curtis Martin - 1570 yds 2 TDs (he had 14 TDs the next year though)

 

Barry Sanders - 1780 4 TDs (retired next year)

 

Granted, an average RB gets washed up at 30. The question is if you think LT deserves to be in the class with the best RBs or is he just a very good back whose time is over?

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If you are trading a first rounder of this caliber, you need a heck of a lot more than simply an upgrade in the 4th to make it happen.

For me, I'd happily trade the 1st or 2nd pick in the first round for only an upgrade in the 4th. I'd probably try to throw in an upgrade in the 6th as well but wouldn't push for it because it puts me in a better position. I wouldn't get greedy trying to complete a trade that, IMO, helps me out.

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I suppose it depends on what class of runner you consider LT, but considering the number of rushing yards he has had (11,760) and how that compares to other top runners:

 

Emmitt Smith 18,335

Walter Payton 16,726

Barry Sanders 15,269

Curtis Martin 14.401

 

here are the total numbers from those RBs in the season when they were 30:

 

Emmitt Smith - 1516 Yds 13 TDs

 

Walter Payton - 2052 11 TDs

 

Curtis Martin - 1570 yds 2 TDs (he had 14 TDs the next year though)

 

Barry Sanders - 1780 4 TDs (retired next year)

 

Granted, an average RB gets washed up at 30. The question is if you think LT deserves to be in the class with the best RBs or is he just a very good back whose time is over?

Well for me the answer is easy - like I said in my initial post, I certainly think LT falls into the same class as those mentioned above, he is special. So if this discussion was started to help aid you in ranking the RBs, I most certainly throw LT at #3 without question. However, from a strategical angle, the risk is too high for me to even have the #2 -#8 pick, because like I already mentioned, there are about 5 or so RBs that all carry the same risk, IMO. So, in a real life situation, as of right now, I would most definitely trade a non #1 pick to upgrade in the 4th and/or 6th round.

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So to sum up, I trade the #2+ pick for a late first then upgrade in round 4 (since drafting in the top 3 already secures me a high round 2 pick).

 

You sure about that? I'm assuming we are talking a serpentine draft here. Maybe you'd want to swap 1st and 2nds and ask for the 4th or 6th round improvement.

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You sure about that? I'm assuming we are talking a serpentine draft here. Maybe you'd want to swap 1st and 2nds and ask for the 4th or 6th round improvement.

Sh1t, you're right. I'd try to upgrade in the 2nd and possibly the 4th. My mind wasn't working there.

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For me, I'd happily trade the 1st or 2nd pick in the first round for only an upgrade in the 4th. I'd probably try to throw in an upgrade in the 6th as well but wouldn't push for it because it puts me in a better position. I wouldn't get greedy trying to complete a trade that, IMO, helps me out.

 

To each their own, but you could easily swap in the 1st, 2nd and 4th rounds IMO. If anyone offered me a deal like you mentioned, I'd jump so fast they'd probably take the offer back!

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