Who's on third?

[The Wolf]

You sure about that? I'm assuming we are talking a serpentine draft here. Maybe you'd want to swap 1st and 2nds and ask for the 4th or 6th round improvement.

 

Beat me to it, Frater...

[The Wolf]

Sh1t, you're right. I'd try to upgrade in the 2nd and possibly the 4th. My mind wasn't working there.

 

+1.

 

Figured there was a brain fart involved. Glad to have you back!

[Brentastic]

Beat me to it, Frater...

Yeah, so back to your point - I'd upgrade in round 2 and possibly in round 4. Although, I'd be happy with just a round 2 upgrade.

[Brentastic]

+1.

 

Figured there was a brain fart involved. Glad to have you back!

I was so in awe of your shirt, I got flustered and couldn't concentrate.

[The Wolf]

I was so in awe of your shirt, I got flustered and couldn't concentrate.

 

Nice! Do me a solid and talk to my wife, OK? She is decidedly NOT a fan...!

[Pope Flick]

LT at 3 is a jump on pick.

 

I honestly cannot believe Chris Johnson is being ranked top 5. He's good but not THAT good to crack the top 5 in an RBBC, and unitl I SEE otherwise I'm going to continue to look at White's 15TDs last year as the true indicator. I'd take Portis before him just on the touch difference alone.

[Bronco Billy]

It isn't like I would make this case if I thought Brady would throw for 32 TD's. In a traditional year, I'm with you. If Brady throws 12 more TD's than the next closest, doesn't that change the "value" structure a bit? Wouldn't the difference between him and the average QB be MUCH greater than the differences you would then have by taking a RB? If it were any other QB, with any other WR, and there were more dominant RB's, I'm with you. This year, however, I think I can get a couple of RB's in rounds 2-5 that can get me somewhere close to the value I can get out of a Turner/Jackson/Tomlinson. If I can find those guys, and I'm confident I can, then Brady makes my team just that much better. If I didn't get Brady, I probably wouldn't take a QB until the 6th round or so.

 

Okay, now we're on the same page. So you are contending that Brady will be so much head & shoulders above all other QBs that he'll justify being a first round pick, or even possibly the third player off the board.

 

But for Brady to do that, you are right in that he'll have to throw 11 or more TDs than the next closest QB on the board. Here's the caveat with predicting - and then relying on - that kind of massive production so much so that he'll have to hit that number or close to it. Even "only" 6 more TDs and he's a bust in that position. So you are relying on his absolute ceiling to get you the production you need to justify his pick there. That's way too much risk.

 

Here's the other caveat - Brady has never thrown for more 28 TDs in his career before the 50 TD season 2 years ago. You're literally counting on lightning to strike twice, and with a QB who is coming back from a catastrophic knee injury no less. Remember when Manning went for 49 passing TDs in '04 and the next year people went ga-ga over his value, only to have him have a "normal" year (for him) of 28 TDs. People drafting him in the first round got hosed. In fact, if you want to pick a top QB off the board this year, it probably ought to be Manning rather than Brady. Manning has surpassed Brady and his previous high 28 TDs 5 times already in his career, including the 49 TD season. It's more likely that Manning has a better shot at ranking above Brady as a FF QB than the reverse. And that discounts the Brees wildcard factor also.

 

As to a WR in the 3 hole? I could justify that this year. I wouldn't do it, if nothing other than WRs are dependent positions who have to have a QB get them the ball to succeed, whereas a RB this high is going to get their carries. WRs are also a bit easier to take away in a game. But I could see a logical reason for taking a WR in the 3 spot. And like you, I like Moss' chances for putting up a very big year. If you feel that you can fill your RB slots later with capable scorers, that's your play. And while conventional wisdom says Fitz is the guy to break the mold, I'd support Moss there.

[Brentastic]

Nice! Do me a solid and talk to my wife, OK? She is decidedly NOT a fan...!

I can only assume she's not a fan because of the tail you attract in that thing. I mean, it's the WOLF shirt for chrisakes!!!

[The Wolf]

I can only assume she's not a fan because of the tail you attract in that thing. I mean, it's the WOLF shirt for chrisakes!!!

 

Now THAT's what I'm takin' about!!!

[PaulOttCarruth]

I am not 100% sure on this, but my gut tells me that grabbing DWill is the way to go. People are always looking for a reason not to take a guy.

 

When DWill came out, people couldn't understand why he wasn't jumping into the lead spot over Deshaun Foster. Then when Foster left last year and the team drafted Stewart, everyone threw DWill on the trash heap. This year people are getting ready to do it again.

 

Time has shown that John Fox is going to give the larger share of the load to DWill, and the guy showed what he could do with that last year. Top RB in the league, and he's getting very little respect.

 

I voted Turner, but I agree with the arguments made in the above post. Williams has an awful lot of doubters...too many...at this point. Reminds me of the year after Priest Holmes had his breakout year with the Chiefs. People were gunshy on taking him early.

 

That said, I give the nod to Turner at #3. I owned Forte in a couple leagues last year. He was incredibly consistent, and there's something to be said for consistency. However, in the first round, I give the nod to the guy who has proven to be highly capable of turning in a monster game (3 TDs, 190 yards). Turner seems to be the kind of guy, like LT, Holmes, and Faulk, who can almost single handedly carry your team to 2-3 wins.

[The Wolf]

I voted Turner, but I agree with the arguments made in the above post. Williams has an awful lot of doubters...too many...at this point. Reminds me of the year after Priest Holmes had his breakout year with the Chiefs. People were gunshy on taking him early.

 

That said, I give the nod to Turner at #3. I owned Forte in a couple leagues last year. He was incredibly consistent, and there's something to be said for consistency. However, in the first round, I give the nod to the guy who has proven to be highly capable of turning in a monster game (3 TDs, 190 yards). Turner seems to be the kind of guy, like LT, Holmes, and Faulk, who can almost single handedly carry your team to 2-3 wins.

 

Two schools of thought...draft for consistency or the chance for a monster game out of your high picks.

 

One can certainly make a case for either, but for me, I take the consistent player. Build a team with enough of those and it would be very hard to beat. The "go off" factor is nice, but not what I want to bank on each week from a #3 pick.

 

Again though, one can go either way.

[The Wolf]

Interesting topic DMD. Good to get all talking about it.

[Seahawks21]

Okay, now we're on the same page. So you are contending that Brady will be so much head & shoulders above all other QBs that he'll justify being a first round pick, or even possibly the third player off the board.

 

But for Brady to do that, you are right in that he'll have to throw 11 or more TDs than the next closest QB on the board. Here's the caveat with predicting - and then relying on - that kind of massive production so much so that he'll have to hit that number or close to it. Even "only" 6 more TDs and he's a bust in that position. So you are relying on his absolute ceiling to get you the production you need to justify his pick there. That's way too much risk.

 

Here's the other caveat - Brady has never thrown for more 28 TDs in his career before the 50 TD season 2 years ago. You're literally counting on lightning to strike twice, and with a QB who is coming back from a catastrophic knee injury no less. Remember when Manning went for 49 passing TDs in '04 and the next year people went ga-ga over his value, only to have him have a "normal" year (for him) of 28 TDs. People drafting him in the first round got hosed. In fact, if you want to pick a top QB off the board this year, it probably ought to be Manning rather than Brady. Manning has surpassed Brady and his previous high 28 TDs 5 times already in his career, including the 49 TD season. It's more likely that Manning has a better shot at ranking above Brady as a FF QB than the reverse. And that discounts the Brees wildcard factor also.

 

As to a WR in the 3 hole? I could justify that this year. I wouldn't do it, if nothing other than WRs are dependent positions who have to have a QB get them the ball to succeed, whereas a RB this high is going to get their carries. WRs are also a bit easier to take away in a game. But I could see a logical reason for taking a WR in the 3 spot. And like you, I like Moss' chances for putting up a very big year. If you feel that you can fill your RB slots later with capable scorers, that's your play. And while conventional wisdom says Fitz is the guy to break the mold, I'd support Moss there.

Very well stated, hard to disagree strongly with anything there. I'll agree that Brees in the 2nd could make a reach for Brady that much less desireable. My biggest reason for going this way is simply because I am not incredibly sold on the RB options, and have some RB sleepers I'm very high on. That, and, well, Brady to Moss should pretty much be illegal. Sorry, don't have time to chat, work is closin. Good stuff though.

[leeb]

i think i like forte at #3 above turner because its a ppr and forte does catch the ball better than turner, and i think turner has alot tougher schedule so his total yards will most likely be down this year from last year.

[Ghost17]

"Steven Jackson has break out year. I wouldn't even think twice about taking him @ 3 "

 

 

This

[The Wolf]

Steven Jackson has break out year. I wouldn't even think twice about taking him @ 3

 

Didn't SJax break out already? 2006, maybe?

[westvirginia]

LT at 3 is a jump on pick.

 

I honestly cannot believe Chris Johnson is being ranked top 5. He's good but not THAT good to crack the top 5 in an RBBC, and unitl I SEE otherwise I'm going to continue to look at White's 15TDs last year as the true indicator. I'd take Portis before him just on the touch difference alone.

 

Well at least you're not a total moran :irishwink: +1 to all the above.

[dirtdickens]

I went with Steven Jackson also. They have been drafting very good linemen the last few years and he plays a very easy schedule.

 

I like Turner, but the number of carries he got against an easy schedule make me worry.

Dwill played about the same schedule and only had one good game against a good defense-NYG. Tougher opponents this year and I won't pick a time share at 3 when I can get his other half later because everyone will be high on DWill.

I am not even thinking about LT.

Big fan of CJohnson. I can say the same things here that I said about Dwill.

[NAUgrad]

I voted Turner, but I agree with the arguments made in the above post. Williams has an awful lot of doubters...too many...at this point. Reminds me of the year after Priest Holmes had his breakout year with the Chiefs. People were gunshy on taking him early.

The two scenarios are completely different. Holmes went to the Chiefs with an opportunity to really be the main guy. I really liked him that year (not top 5, but high enough to draft him in the 1st round) solely because it looked like he was going to get the majority of the carries. I will draft a player higher if I think they will touch the ball the majority of the time during a game. An average RB can put up solid numbers just because they touch the ball 17-20 times a game. Dwill may touch the ball that many times, but we just don't know. It could be a straight up 50/50 split.

 

Having said that, you and I both know that the Panthers coaches are extremely loyal to longer tenured vets. Sometimes to a fault. Therefore I would expect Dwill to get at least 60% of the carries. Does that equate to 17-20 touches per game? I really don't know. But I know he is absolutely going to split carries and because of that I will always downgrade a player just a bit. Top 10 RB absolutely, but top 5, no.

[PaulOttCarruth]

The two scenarios are completely different. Holmes went to the Chiefs with an opportunity to really be the main guy. I really liked him that year (not top 5, but high enough to draft him in the 1st round) solely because it looked like he was going to get the majority of the carries. I will draft a player higher if I think they will touch the ball the majority of the time during a game. An average RB can put up solid numbers just because they touch the ball 17-20 times a game. Dwill may touch the ball that many times, but we just don't know. It could be a straight up 50/50 split.

 

First, I think the Holmes/DWill comparison holds water:

 

2001 was Holmes first year in KC

His ADP was 59 -- Rd. 4-5 (I doubt you took him in Rd. 1)

That season he put up 2200 yards from scrimmage and was a top 2 fantasy RB

 

2002 he was not drafted as a top 2-3 RB -- due to people doubting him

His ADP that year was 10

 

____

 

2008 was DWill's fist chance to start

His ADP was 84

Last year he was by all measures a top 3 RB -- even in PPR leagues

 

2009 he is not being drafted as a top 2-3 RB

His ADP is 10

 

____

 

Second, if you want to make the case for dropping DWill based on the potential of him splitting some carries with Stewart, that's fine. I can buy that. There is that risk. But there's also risk with the others who you'd consider:

 

Turner and Forte had a huge amount of touches last year. History tells us to avoid RBs after such seasons.

LT is on the downswing. He's battling injuries. He could also start to split.

SJax never plays a full season

CJohnson not the goal-line back

 

I used to be in the camp where I'd downgrade players hugely if the were in any type of a committee, but I'm beginning to think it's not such a bad thing. More than a few RBs have been part of committees in recent years and been top 5-7 fantasy RBs . . . DWill, BJacobs, MBIII, MJD, come to mind.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Forte was the #1 PPR scorer last year, right?

 

Now, he's got a legit QB, a better O-line, and an easier schedule. Why are other guys being elevated above him in PPR formats? Are people just scared of the "sophomore slump" factor? If so, how did that work out for people who avoided Adrian Peterson in his 2nd year? Or LaDainian Tomlinson? Or Clinton Portis? Or Frank Gore?

 

With PPR in play, I'd have a hard time passing on Forte with the first overall pick.

[DMD]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Forte was the #1 PPR scorer last year, right?

 

Now, he's got a legit QB, a better O-line, and an easier schedule. Why are other guys being elevated above him in PPR formats? Are people just scared of the "sophomore slump" factor? If so, how did that work out for people who avoided Adrian Peterson in his 2nd year? Or LaDainian Tomlinson? Or Clinton Portis? Or Frank Gore?

 

With PPR in play, I'd have a hard time passing on Forte with the first overall pick.

 

Some concerns about Forte - his stats were the result of him being the entire offense. He had 316 carries but only gained 1238 yards for a 3.9 YPC. He only scored eight rushing TDs. He did have an NFL high 63 catches for 477 yards and 4 scores but will that continue with a QB that won't just dump off to the RB 63 times all season since he can throw downfield unlike Orton? He only ran for two games over 100 yards. His FF value was just that he was used 63 times as a receiver.

 

Are you telling me that Forte's stats impressed you:

 

272 carries for 1025 yards (3.8 YPC) 9 TDs and 70 catches for 563 yards and 2 TDs for 1588 total yards and 11 TDs

 

No wait... those were from Lamont Jordan in 2005. Here is Forte's:

 

316 carries for 1238 yards (3.9 YPC) 8 TDs and 63 catches for 477 yards and 4 TDs for 1715 total yards and 12 TDS

 

I al always leery of someone who has a low YPC and comes off a year where he was used as a receiver for most of his fantasy value.

[tonorator]

I al always leery of someone who has a low YPC and comes off a year where he was used as a receiver for most of his fantasy value.

 

while his total touches may go down in a healthier offense, i do believe his YPC will go up due to more open running lanes and a more versatile attack. combine that with the fact that he is proven as an effective pass catcher and i don't see how you would take someone over him in PPR on the basis of his YPC stat last year. teams could seriously neglect the passing game of chicago last year because they knew it was going to forte and he still got 4 yards a pop. sjax and westbrook were both at 4.1 and 4.0, so what's the big diff?

 

turner had 376 rusing attempts last year to lead the league, compared to forte's 316. i have to think as ryan matures atlanta would be looking to lessen turner's load somewhat to better balance the offense. LT was at 3.8 YPC. yes, hurt, but that's a big jump and he's crossed the 30 barrier. that leaves chris johnson who was all over the place from a week to week standpoint last year, getting his points in bunches. i just can't burn a 3 pick on that.

 

i would be more inclined to consider deangelo but the injury history scares me and while portis is sound, i think he's peaked.

 

i like the upside in forte and view him as having everything in place to improve on last year vs. other guys who all have more questions.

[Big Country]

Two schools of thought...draft for consistency or the chance for a monster game out of your high picks.

 

One can certainly make a case for either, but for me, I take the consistent player. Build a team with enough of those and it would be very hard to beat. The "go off" factor is nice, but not what I want to bank on each week from a #3 pick.

 

Again though, one can go either way.

 

 

My normal strategy... consistency from my early picks, home run swings for the mid round to later picks.

[DMD]

. combine that with the fact that he is proven as an effective pass catcher and i don't see how you would take someone over him in PPR on the basis of his YPC stat last year. teams could seriously neglect the passing game of chicago last year because they knew it was going to forte and he still got 4 yards a pop. sjax and westbrook were both at 4.1 and 4.0, so what's the big diff?

 

turner had 376 rusing attempts last year to lead the league, compared to forte's 316. i have to think as ryan matures atlanta would be looking to lessen turner's load somewhat to better balance the offense. LT was at 3.8 YPC. yes, hurt, but that's a big jump and he's crossed the 30 barrier. that leaves chris johnson who was all over the place from a week to week standpoint last year, getting his points in bunches. i just can't burn a 3 pick on that.

 

i would be more inclined to consider deangelo but the injury history scares me and while portis is sound, i think he's peaked.

 

i like the upside in forte and view him as having everything in place to improve on last year vs. other guys who all have more questions.

 

His numbers were almost exactly the same as Lamont Jordan's in his one big year thanks also to being the NFL RB leader in catches that year. Westbrook only had a 4.0 YPC last year because of injury (he missed two games as well.). The two previous seasons had Westy gaining either 4.8 or 5.1 YPC. SJax missed four games and was injured as well. Hegained 4.4 YPC in his one big season with catches (90).

 

Forte does get the benefit of a heavier load most likely, but the dynamics are changing from 2008. But he was the entire CHI offense last year and his 392 plays were second in the league (Peterson had 402). CHI may actually have more to use than Forte this year which means Forte does not have upside at all. His risk is how ever much Cutler uses other players instead of him. Forte only ranked 10th last year considering just rushing and CHI says they want to rest him more. I cannot see how he can have upside when he is certain to not have as big a role.