Board Meeting: Addai/Brown

[j2v]

Three years ago the Colts took Joseph Addai in the first round as the heir to Edgerrin James, and it worked out quite nicely. Though he didn’t start a single game, Addai rushed for 1,081 yards (at 4.8 yards a pop), caught 40 passes, and scored eight touchdowns as the Colts’ two-headed backfield helped Indy win a Super Bowl ring. Addai’s sophomore season—sans Dominic Rhodes—lived up to most of the fantasy hype as Addai produced 1,435 combo yards and 15 touchdowns despite missing a game, so by year three he was a solid top-10 fantasy option.

 

Oops. Addai slumped to 750 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns while missing four games; Dominic Rhodes (840 and nine) was actually more productive. So the Colts spent another first-round pick on a running back, snaring versatile Donald Brown out of UConn with the 27th overall selection. Addai’s fantasy value has taken a serious stomach-punch; according to Mock Draft Central he’s going on average 43rd overall (that’s mid-fourth round), the 21st back off the board. But Brown isn’t exactly racing up the charts; on average he goes off the board 86th overall (early eighth round), the 33rd back and third rookie back being taken.

 

There’s certainly the potential for serious fantasy production here; in Addai’s three NFL seasons Colts backs have posted an average of 2,109 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns per season. But there’s little consensus among fantasy drafters as to which back will be the better fantasy value.

 

Is Addai being unfairly maligned? Is Brown poised to be the more productive back? Is this a situation your fantasy team wants no part of? Or is it worth a 4 and an 8 to lock down that sort of production from a team that is claiming it plans to step up its rushing attack?

[tazinib1]

I voted based on being in a dynasty league.

[Ziachild007]

Am I reading this correctly that most are willing to wait until ROUND 4 to grab him?

[DMD]

Am I reading this correctly that most are willing to wait until ROUND 4 to grab him?

 

Addai has an ADP of 54th overall which would actually be 6 picks past the 4.12

[Ziachild007]

Addai has an ADP of 54th overall which would actually be 6 picks past the 4.12

 

I've been so wrapped up in dynasty lately I haven't really looked at redraft much yet. But that seems awful low to me. Off the top of my head I can't think of 50 other players I would rather have.

[Tford]

In drafts, I'm snagging Addai happily in round 5. I'd take Brown to cuff if he was there around the 9th/10th.

 

This situation reminds me of Carolina last year. First round rookie pick that many expect to run away with the starter job. The veteran, a young first round pick in his own right, is being written off before a game is played.

 

The only difference between this situation and Carolina's last year is that Addai has proven he can produce at a high level whereas DWill hadn't.

 

In dynasty leagues where I own Addai, I've taken Brown if it made sense (I had 1.04) but in the other two leagues where I own Addai and had higher picks, I haven't once considered moving up to grab Brown or shipping Addai off.

 

Addai is the back to have in this situation IMO.

[DMD]

That is not to say that he doesn't go higher in redraft leagues only or that it won't change. I think a lot of people were really high on Brown when he was drafted and immediately shelved Addai after one bad, injured year. Addai had an ADP of #5 last year. So ask yourself - what is different about this year than last year? How does that affect him and does it warrant a four round plunge from where he went last year.

[Big Country]

Obviously a lot depends on league size and lineup options, but I could see him being a viable option anywhere from the mid-3rd round on. If he is there late 4th and I've gone RB-WR-WR with a nearly 1st round pick, I'd be happy to have him as my RB2 to pair with my top 3 pick RB, even more so if he makes it to me in the early 5th.

 

As far as handcuffing, I am far from a proponent of that strategy. IMO, this is a situation similar to Addai's rookie campaign, where both backs are likely to get a decent amount of action and put up decent numbers. Both will be serviceable options, so it is less of an insurance pick and more of a value pick as to when Brown is taken. I would not overreach for him just because I have Addai, but if he was there in the 8th or 9th and was my top rated RB and I am grabbing him as a bye week filler primarily, I'd take him, but I wouldn;t jump on him in the 6th just because I had Addai.

[Big Country]

This situation reminds me of Carolina last year. First round rookie pick that many expect to run away with the starter job. The veteran, a young first round pick in his own right, is being written off before a game is played.

 

This, though that doesn't mean I'm not still more comfortable taking some other RBs ahead of him that are in situations where they don't have a high first round pick breathing down their neck for PT.

 

That is not to say that he doesn't go higher in redraft leagues only or that it won't change. I think a lot of people were really high on Brown when he was drafted and immediately shelved Addai after one bad, injured year. Addai had an ADP of #5 last year. So ask yourself - what is different about this year than last year? How does that affect him and does it warrant a four round plunge from where he went last year.

 

It doesn't, which is why I fully expect to see Addai's ADP rise as the season gets closer (barring injury or something from the Colts camp to indicate that any sort of split would favor Brown.) And if it doesn't, then I have him pegged as a strong value pick where he is going.

[Ziachild007]

In drafts, I'm snagging Addai happily in round 5. I'd take Brown to cuff if he was there around the 9th/10th.

 

This situation reminds me of Carolina last year. First round rookie pick that many expect to run away with the starter job. The veteran, a young first round pick in his own right, is being written off before a game is played.

 

The only difference between this situation and Carolina's last year is that Addai has proven he can produce at a high level whereas DWill hadn't.

 

In dynasty leagues where I own Addai, I've taken Brown if it made sense (I had 1.04) but in the other two leagues where I own Addai and had higher picks, I haven't once considered moving up to grab Brown or shipping Addai off.

 

Addai is the back to have in this situation IMO.

 

It scares me how much we agree on some stuff.

[Tford]

It scares me how much we agree on some stuff.

 

[The Wolf]

That is not to say that he doesn't go higher in redraft leagues only or that it won't change. I think a lot of people were really high on Brown when he was drafted and immediately shelved Addai after one bad, injured year. Addai had an ADP of #5 last year. So ask yourself - what is different about this year than last year? How does that affect him and does it warrant a four round plunge from where he went last year.

 

Personally, I think FFers are tending to over complicate RB situations simply due to the proliferation of RBBC and lack of many true workhorse backs, as well as a plethora of WR options that carry far fewer question marks. We're very quick to throw a back to the scrap heap simply because there is a new young stud in town and tend to forget that they have been productive backs with proven history on their side.

 

Tford said it best when he compared the Addai/Brown situation with the DWill/Stewart situation of last year. I am certainly not suggesting that the results will be the same (meaning, take Addai because he will do what DWill did) but I am saying that, given the choice between the two, I'd go with the known entity.

 

In this case, it's Addai.

[j2v]

This situation reminds me of Carolina last year. First round rookie pick that many expect to run away with the starter job. The veteran, a young first round pick in his own right, is being written off before a game is played.

 

The only difference between this situation and Carolina's last year is that Addai has proven he can produce at a high level whereas DWill hadn't.

 

That is a great comparison. I think the knee-jerk reaction after the NFL draft was to downgrade Addai and upgrade Brown; as the draft fades in the rear view mirror and the regular season approaches, Addai will start creeping back up the board and likely end up with a third-round ADP. Barring an amazing training camp Brown shouldn't climb much higher than an ADP in R8. That feels like a lower price than what you would have paid for Williams/Stewart (or, for Taz, Stewart/Williams) last year.

 

2V

[WaterMan]

Am I reading this correctly that most are willing to wait until ROUND 4 to grab him?

 

Peyton Manning 1st and Goal and the 1: TD pass to WR.

 

Does that sound familiar?

Edited June 26, 2009 by WaterMan

[irish]

A lot of love for Addai and I guess as the veteran RB he'll get first crack at things but I have to say that I always thought that Addai was soft and actually preferred Rhodes over him. I think that if Addai disappoints, gets nicked up and Brown comes in like the workhorse he can be, then Addai will be splitting right down the middle and that Brown could be the main RB before year's end and certainly by next season.

 

This is a very interesting situation and I'd much rather be getting Addai in the late 4th to early 5th or missing on him totally and grabbing up Donald Brown later hoping he becomes the lead back in the INDY RBBC.

Edited June 26, 2009 by irish

[j2v]

Peyton Manning 1st and Goal and the 1: TD pass to WR.

 

Does that sound familiar?

 

I don't have the breakdown of who they went to, but Manning's TD passes over the past three seasons

 

2008

5 yards and in - 10

6-10 yards - 6

11-20 yards - 4

21+ yards - 8

 

2007

5 yards and in - 9

6-10 yards - 7

11-20 yards - 4

21+ yards - 14

 

2006

5 yards and in - 17

6-10 yards - 3

11-20 yards - 6

21+ yards - 8

 

That's an average of 12 TD passes a year from 5 and in, though less than that each of the past two seasons.

 

For comparison, Philip Rivers threw nine and four TDs of 5 yards or less the past two seasons.

Ben Roethlisberger threw four and six TDs of 5 yards or less the past two seasons

Tom Brady threw 17 in 2007, plus another 12 from 6-10 yards.

 

It's a factor, to be sure, but maybe less than we think.

[Seahawks21]

Addai was one of those guys that was SO bad last year that you just can't be needing to rely on him this year, especially with a 1st round rookie right behind him. He may very well end up being a steal, but there is also a chance that you are absolutely throwing away a 4th-5th if you draft him. Too much risk for me.

 

If you're gonna draft Addai, you better darn well get Brown too.

Edited June 26, 2009 by Seahawks21

[Scooby]

gonna pass on I-die, opt for DB later if I can get in, plain vanilla re-draft leagues