j2v Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 The “gotta get a RB with my first pick” mentality is beginning to erode. This year’s deep crop of backs, along with a distinct lack of consensus with regards to which backs should be slotted where, has more people thinking wide receiver in round one than ever before. Average Draft Position at Mock Draft Central pegs Larry Fitzgerald as the fifth overall selection; he’s followed closely by Andre Johnson at 8 and Calvin Johnson at 9. And that still doesn’t include Randy Moss, the Huddle’s top-ranked WR. So, how early would you take your first wide receiver? Certainly it depends on which backs go off the board ahead of you, but if you’re making a predraft list where do you slot Fitz or Andre or Calvin or the wide receiver of your choice? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziachild007 Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 There was a time when I could wait until the second round to snag my boy AJ.....but not anymore. Now people I draft with know of my man love for him and the fact that is has established himself as one of the top WRs in the league. So now if I am going to go after him I will go as early as 5 or 6 if I had to. IMO he is just as safe in a PPR as the other RBs that would be there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 As much as I love WR and knowing that they go early this year, I would still have a hard time picking one before the 9th or 10th pick. Those lower risk RBs are hard to pass up but in a PPR league it is even harder to wait. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Tough to answer based on the poll. Obviously it depends on who is there. For instance, DWill is dropping to like 10. IMO he should be considered top 3-4, so situationally there is a fair chance he will be available later in the round, and I like that. If I were making overall rankings, I could see a WR or 2 creeping into the top 8 players in a PPR league, and 4 living in the first round. All in all, the combination of there being a long line of middle tier RBs and a short supply of top tier WRs makes this inevitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 As much as I love WR and knowing that they go early this year, I would still have a hard time picking one before the 9th or 10th pick. Those lower risk RBs are hard to pass up but in a PPR league it is even harder to wait. Yup... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 (edited) I'd have to assume this is a ppr league. If so, my squeal point at considering a WR over a RB would probably be around pick 8. Probably after the Jackson/LT/Portis tier of RBs going. The value of the top WR probably would justify WR1 going around pick 4 to 6, but the #1 WR this year is very debatable between 4 to 5 players with at least 3 to 4 dark horses thrown in - meaning you might be able to get the exact same scoring out of your 2nd round WR as your first rounder at that spot in the draft, and burning your 1st rounder on a WR and having to come back in the second round with a RB would put you at an apparent immediate disadvantage with your first two picks. You could hope to bottle up two WR1s in the first two rounds, but then RBs start getting real dicey - you could end up studly but your season could also be over by week 8. I'll take some chances, but I don't think I would be willing to take on that kind of risk in anything but a very friendly low cost league. Edited June 30, 2009 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Actually, this line of thinking is old news to me and any other owners who are ahead of the curve. When you say beginning to erode, I say it has been eroding for the last 5 years or so - at least for owners who are trend-setters and not followers. The only difference is now everyone is on this bandwagon - which for me means it's time to move in another direction. For the last 5 years or so, when I don't have a top 5 pick, I have been going WR - if you're just hopping onto this trend now, then you are too late to gain that competitive advantage because everyone is now doing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartans91 Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Actually, this line of thinking is old news to me and any other owners who are ahead of the curve. When you say beginning to erode, I say it has been eroding for the last 5 years or so - at least for owners who are trend-setters and not followers. The only difference is now everyone is on this bandwagon - which for me means it's time to move in another direction. For the last 5 years or so, when I don't have a top 5 pick, I have been going WR - if you're just hopping onto this trend now, then you are too late to gain that competitive advantage because everyone is now doing it. I agree. This trend has less to do with the quality of WR and more to do with the lack of consistency in the RB position. This is due to the outbreak of 2 RB systems in the NFL and the always dreadful goaline vulture RB more and more teams employ. Also, quality RB help has been found in later rounds, the guys like Domanick Davis 5 years ago or so or a dude like Ryan Grant who just emerges as the #1 on a team a few games into the season. STUD RB in the 1st round, or even RB/RB in the 1st two rounds, is no longer a valid (or winning) FFL mindset. That being said, I'd start looking at WRs at 5 or 6. Last year, the 4th and 5th picks were Addai and S-Jax. Those players kinda killed their fantasy owners. I'm sure those guys would rather have had Fitz/Moss/Andre Johnson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 I agree. This trend has less to do with the quality of WR and more to do with the lack of consistency in the RB position. This is due to the outbreak of 2 RB systems in the NFL and the always dreadful goaline vulture RB more and more teams employ. Also, quality RB help has been found in later rounds, the guys like Domanick Davis 5 years ago or so or a dude like Ryan Grant who just emerges as the #1 on a team a few games into the season. STUD RB in the 1st round, or even RB/RB in the 1st two rounds, is no longer a valid (or winning) FFL mindset. That being said, I'd start looking at WRs at 5 or 6. Last year, the 4th and 5th picks were Addai and S-Jax. Those players kinda killed their fantasy owners. I'm sure those guys would rather have had Fitz/Moss/Andre Johnson. 32 teams in the NFL means, that in a 12 team FFL, every team could have two RBs who are starters. When you branch out into teams that use two RBs, injuries, players benched for fumbling/sucking, and goal line vultures: there are alot of RBs to go around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NAUgrad Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 32 teams in the NFL means, that in a 12 team FFL, every team could have two RBs who are starters. When you branch out into teams that use two RBs, injuries, players benched for fumbling/sucking, and goal line vultures: there are alot of RBs to go around. I actually think there are more receivers to go around. Typically after week one or so a handful of WR that weren't even drafted emerge as viable options. Of course during the season every position has its injuries and free agent opportunities. It just seems to me that WR is the most abundant from year to year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 I actually think there are more receivers to go around. Typically after week one or so a handful of WR that weren't even drafted emerge as viable options. Of course during the season every position has its injuries and free agent opportunities. It just seems to me that WR is the most abundant from year to year. This is true. It's why the top 12 to 15 RBs have more value than their WR counterparts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 With Randy Moss and Tom Brady playing on the same team, all conventional rules are thrown out. I would in no way take AJ or Calvin in the 1st, when I can get Jennings/White/Smith in the second. I will, however, take Randy Moss with the 2nd pick overall if I get it. Give me 18+ TD's out a WR, and I guarantee you I can fill in the holes well enough to make that a contending team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 In a no RB required league I wonder where they should be taken. Last year in AOTAOP 1.09 9. Hangtown Heroes Wayne, Reggie IND WR Thu Jun 12 1:07:24 a.m. ET 2008 Needed to stick with my gut feeling here and take the best player available. 1.13 13. Sun City Little Blue Pills Edwards, Braylon CLE WR Thu Jun 12 1:34:35 p.m. ET 2008 Commish pick via text from Robash. 1.14 14. Iowa Barnstormers Johnson, Andre HOU WR Thu Jun 12 2:09:26 p.m. ET 2008 You all knew it was coming. 1.16 16. Phoenix Force Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR Thu Jun 12 2:43:18 p.m. ET 2008 How they did(naturally Zia took Andre Johnson) 1. 6. Johnson, Andre HOU WR 2. 7. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 13. 57. Wayne, Reggie IND WR 34. 200. Edwards, Braylon CLE WR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziachild007 Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 With Randy Moss and Tom Brady playing on the same team, all conventional rules are thrown out. I would in no way take AJ or Calvin in the 1st, when I can get Jennings/White/Smith in the second. I will, however, take Randy Moss with the 2nd pick overall if I get it. Give me 18+ TD's out a WR, and I guarantee you I can fill in the holes well enough to make that a contending team. A lot of the time I will take a WR in the 1st and 2nd. Heck, in my local I took WRs in rounds 1-4 (AJ, Wayne, Ocho, & Holt) and ended up winning the league. Of course I traded up in the 5th to get Michael Turner and then took Forte in the 7th. So the biggest thing if you are going to take WRs over RBs early is to get several good upside players at a good value. FWIW, AJ was #6 overall among non-QBs in our league: 1. 10. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB 565 35.3 18 7 10 14 57 8 21 36 B 49 54 37 59 59 40 61 35 Cincinnati Bowties 9 2. 13. Turner, Michael ATL RB 528 33.0 76 10 50 12 34 10 B 11 27 30 36 63 24 22 48 24 51 Las Vegas Lobos 7 3. 15. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 513 32.1 33 40 15 44 8 23 56 B 37 57 19 26 38 24 33 20 40 Detroit Fuzzy Muffs 8 4. 16. Forte, Matt CHI RB ® 511 31.9 50 25 44 21 33 36 26 B 27 38 26 50 35 25 26 31 18 Las Vegas Lobos 8 5. 20. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 489 30.6 13 22 48 11 22 52 B 11 27 52 41 41 19 39 34 39 18 Chitown Shockers 7 6. 21. Johnson, Andre HOU WR 481 481 30.1 32 B 7 10 42 52 39 39 23 20 15 33 29 23 59 5 53 Las Vegas Lobos 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 With Randy Moss and Tom Brady playing on the same team, all conventional rules are thrown out. I would in no way take AJ or Calvin in the 1st, when I can get Jennings/White/Smith in the second. I will, however, take Randy Moss with the 2nd pick overall if I get it. Give me 18+ TD's out a WR, and I guarantee you I can fill in the holes well enough to make that a contending team. You're not trying to imply that the Brady/Moss combo is going to repeat 2007 production are you? Moss won't get 18+ TDs again and Brady will be lucky to throw 30 TDs this year. Moss is no more a guarantee than AJ, FItz, or Wayne etc... I'm still hoping to get either the 1st overall pick in the draft or a late 1st, early 2nd. I'm hoping I can get Gore toward the end of the 1st then come back and get a Marion Barber type in the 2nd. If Wayne lives up to his ADP, I might get lucky and score him in the 3rd round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Except that Brady's knee won't be fully healed any time soon. He'll be rusty and that knee can blow just from walking around the grocery store and stepping on something odd. I wonder, He was hurt it in game 1 so he'll have almost a full year to recover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Except that Brady's knee won't be fully healed any time soon. He'll be rusty and that knee can blow just from walking around the grocery store and stepping on something odd. By all accounts he is on pace to be close to 100% this year. Remeber that Carson Palmer shredded his knee up even worse at the end of 2006 and he came back in 2007 to throw for 4131 yards. I've not heard anything that indicates Brady's knee should be a major risk factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 I've not heard anything that indicates Brady's knee should be a major risk factor. Me either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Cid Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 I think that this year you could be justified in taking a WR after the first four spots. I believe that the top four or five WRs are worthy of first round consideration this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cunning Runt Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 Certainly don't mean to hijack the thread with this reply, but damn, y'all gotta give some real serious consideration to doing an auction draft. The discussions in this thread only reinforce that thought to me even more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 I think that this year you could be justified in taking a WR after the first four spots. I believe that the top four or five WRs are worthy of first round consideration this year. What's funny about this statement is that this year should be no different than any other year. Why are the top 5 WRs this year more desirable than other years? Do you think the top 5 WRs will have superior stats to previous year's top 5 WRs? Because if you think about it, if you could accurately predict the top 5 WRs (or any position) - I'd imagine that any year would be a good year to have a top 5 WR. Know what I mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 I think it more refers to the risk of RB versus a more sure thing of WR. RB confidence has never been lower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 Where's the "N/A because I don't do non-auction drafts as they're for little kids who can't handle auctions" option Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 I think it more refers to the risk of RB versus a more sure thing of WR. RB confidence has never been lower. RB confidence shouldn't matter. I know what you're trying to say - but it's just emotion getting in the way of an owner's perceptions. On average, the top 5 RBs and top 5 WRs should come out close to even in a PPR league - each and every season. So any wavering in confidence is really just fear of uncertainty - but if you understand that top 5 at each position will remain steady each season, there's really no difference from year to year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 Right now I only see 8 #1 fantasy RBs. I couldn't pass on any if they are there in the 1st round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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