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Steven Jackson


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this will be the fourth year I've owned him in a dynasty league and I've had him since he was a rookie in a keeper league. I just find it hard to hold his QB and O-line being made of glass against him as a player. Granted, these issues might be a reason to shy away from him, but I don't believe the issue is him or his heart or even him being injury prone. They really addressed the oline - FINALLY - this year and they've a soft schedule. This the most I've like him in a couple years

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you must not have owned him recently. Believe me, at one point I was just as excited about him as you were.

 

-it's not just what he's done that makes him a 1st rounder...it's what he could potentionally do.

any one of those backs you listed COULD win you a title...but only a couple HAVE.(and SJAX is one)

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-it's not just what he's done that makes him a 1st rounder...it's what he could potentionally do.

any one of those backs you listed COULD win you a title...but only a couple HAVE.(and SJAX is one)

 

 

3 years ago yes. What has he done lately though? I'm not sure he can stay healthy.

 

Last year I traded him in 2 leagues.

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-it's not just what he's done that makes him a 1st rounder...it's what he could potentionally do.

any one of those backs you listed COULD win you a title...but only a couple HAVE.(and SJAX is one)

This argument works both ways. You could argue that Jackson has cost way more owners playoff appearances than he has won them championships. I would bet that a very very small number of people that have drafted him in the first round the past two years have ended up in their fantasy playoffs.

 

I dunno, I've had about half the guys on that list, give or take. I've won championships with a good number of them. In the league I have had Jackson in for the past two years, I haven't been all that competetive, despite having good talent at other postions. Still, I think people are getting caught up with the way he looks in pads, rather than his numbers. Remember, fantasy football is all about the numbers.

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Here are the fantasy football numbers I like about Sjax this year

 

ONE stud LT

+

ONE top free agent center

=

A top 5-9 RB finish at the end of the year.

 

Well worth a 1st round pick. The risk is no different than drafting other RBs with injury issues like Westbrook or Jacobs. Hell even LT has been banged up the last 2 years . . . .

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Here are the fantasy football numbers I like about Sjax this year

 

ONE stud LT

+

ONE top free agent center

=

A top 5-9 RB finish at the end of the year.

 

Well worth a 1st round pick. The risk is no different than drafting other RBs with injury issues like Westbrook or Jacobs. Hell even LT has been banged up the last 2 years . . . .

Well, as for the tackle, all reports out of St. Louis are that Smith won't start, and if he does earn a spot it will be at RT, not left.

 

The difference between Jackson and guys like Westbook and LT is that most of the time, Westbrook and LT actually perform. Jackson has had one good year in his career. All the rest have been subpar. You simply can't say that about any of the other top backs. Look, I know the upside is there, I'm not blind, but I can't ever think of a player who has so much risk, and has played so poorly, yet still has so many supporters willing to take the risk. As long as you think some owners in your league deserve the charity, go ahead and slide your league entry fee over to them.

Edited by Seahawks21
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Well, as for the tackle, all reports out of St. Louis are that Smith won't start, and if he does earn a spot it will be at RT, not left.

 

The difference between Jackson and guys like Westbook and LT is that most of the time, Westbrook and LT actually perform. Jackson has had one good year in his career. All the rest have been subpar. You simply can't say that about any of the other top backs. Look, I know the upside is there, I'm not blind, but I can't ever think of a player who has so much risk, and has played so poorly, yet still has so many supporters willing to take the risk. As long as you think some owners in your league deserve the charity, go ahead and slide your league entry fee over to them.

 

...again, don't look so much @ the past. when you site guys like LT and Westy i'll remind you S.Jax is about 4 yrs younger than those guys. when you take guys off your list who share the carries and guys who don't have the potential to break-off a 50 yd run as well as those that don't get many receptions the list get's real small and easily puts SJAX in the 1st round...(@ least to my line of thinking)

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...again, don't look so much @ the past. when you site guys like LT and Westy i'll remind you S.Jax is about 4 yrs younger than those guys. when you take guys off your list who share the carries and guys who don't have the potential to break-off a 50 yd run as well as those that don't get many receptions the list get's real small and easily puts SJAX in the 1st round...(@ least to my line of thinking)

That would be fine and dandy except Jackson has only had one run of 50 or more yards in the past two years. He is MUCH too slow to be considered a home run threat. He also has only topped 43 receptions once in his career. Not exactly an elite receiver, numbers wise. He is putting up Jamal Lewis/Willis McGahee type numbers, and those guys are being drafted by round 3 at the absolute earliest. Look, I don't have a horse in this race or any particular feelings towards Jackson. I'lll just say it like this. If a man came here from China, had no idea who any of these players were, and was forced to play fantasy football, and all he could do was do some research and look at numbers, he would tell you that if somebody took those kinds of numbers out of their first round pick, they would probably have the lowest odds to make good of their first round pick.

 

If we aren't able to use the last two seasons as history, what do you suggest we look at?

 

If his numbers from the last two seasons are such an aberration, what numbers do you project that he puts up this year?

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the thing about Jackson that has bugged me is that he'll have a very mediocre game until he breaks off a long one and then his numbers look good...

 

he'll have 46 yds on about 16 carries and then finish the game with 96 yds and 1 TD....and most people will say "those are fine numbers, what are you complaining for?

 

well, for one...my local rewarded 100 yds performances with 5 extra points :wacko:

 

but in all seriousness.....if he didn't break off that late 50 yd run....he'll have just another worthless performance...

 

I prefer RB's who usually break off a couple 15-20 yd gains...and that's what Westy does, but every year I get more and more scared to draft Westy....

 

...it's kinda murky this year at RB trying to manage risk...at least from the standpoint that I take anyways...

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the thing about Jackson that has bugged me is that he'll have a very mediocre game until he breaks off a long one and then his numbers look good...

 

he'll have 46 yds on about 16 carries and then finish the game with 96 yds and 1 TD....and most people will say "those are fine numbers, what are you complaining for?

 

well, for one...my local rewarded 100 yds performances with 5 extra points :wacko:

 

but in all seriousness.....if he didn't break off that late 50 yd run....he'll have just another worthless performance...

 

I prefer RB's who usually break off a couple 15-20 yd gains...and that's what Westy does, but every year I get more and more scared to draft Westy....

 

...it's kinda murky this year at RB trying to manage risk...at least from the standpoint that I take anyways...

 

Which is the #1 reason that DeAngelo Williams is over-rated. I don't recall the exact #, but 6-7 50+ TD runs will NOT be duplicated. By anyone.

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Isnt that the very definition of Steve Slaton? or LT?

 

ehh...I don't think Slaton is legit...

 

LT...is obviously LT...and he's had plenty of games where he just rips off 10 yds after 10 yds per carry....

 

Jackson does that once a season....LT could do it almost at will except that game he played at the Linc in 2006 I think?

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But isnt that definition of "long runs" intellectually dishonest? It is like saying "well if you take out that slant pass to Fitz that he took 70 yards to the house out, then warner doesnt look that good". You just cant do that.

 

Sjax is THE focal point of his offense. he also can run inside with the best of them. I dont see Brandon Jacobs tearing off huge runs, but he gets pretty good stats regardless. How many ling runs did Mike Turner break off last year?

 

I think the point is that Sjax's ceiling is so much higher than some other RBs that were listed that it is difficult to place him out of the 1st round. Risk v reward.

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But isnt that definition of "long runs" intellectually dishonest? It is like saying "well if you take out that slant pass to Fitz that he took 70 yards to the house out, then warner doesnt look that good". You just cant do that.

 

Sjax is THE focal point of his offense. he also can run inside with the best of them. I dont see Brandon Jacobs tearing off huge runs, but he gets pretty good stats regardless. How many ling runs did Mike Turner break off last year?

 

I think the point is that Sjax's ceiling is so much higher than some other RBs that were listed that it is difficult to place him out of the 1st round. Risk v reward.

 

alright...you made me do it...:wacko:

 

I have to bring in the stats to show exactly what I'm talking about...and I also was not a big Turner fan last year...but I like his situation more this season than the last...

 

anyways....prime examples...

 

1st 3 weeks of last season (note: anything in parentheses is the number of his longest run)

 

14 att - 40 yds 0TD(9)

13 att - 53 yds 0TD(15)

23 att - 66 yds 0TD(8)

 

then in week 4 he finally breaks 100 yds and gets a 29yd TD....which isn't a long run, so he had a very good game here

24 att - 110 yds 1TD(29) (note: he had 78 rec yds in this game as well...great performance)

 

then he has a bye after that week and comes back with a mediocre performance performance

24 att - 79 yds 0TD(9)

 

now he has a monster game....but I really wished he had paced himself because he blew out his hammy on one of those monster runs he had...

25 att - 160 yds 3TD(56)

 

so he misses a game and comes back in week 9 to face the cardinals and does pretty much nothing...

7 att - 17 yds 0TD(10)

 

he then misses the next 3 weeks and comes back to a solid performance against the Dolphins

21 att - 94 yds 0TD(13)

 

now he has a mediocre game at Arizona in his 2nd game back from injury

18 att - 63 yds 0TD(32) (note: he had his only reception TD this week, which made up for other things)

 

week 12 he faces Seattle at home and finally reaches the redzone for the 1st time on the ground since he lambasted dallas...

24 att - 91 yds 1TD(15)

 

the last 2 weeks of the season went well for him even though in fantasy week 17 doesn't count...he still put the numbers up..

32 att - 108 yds 0TD(12)

30 att - 161 yds 2TD(36)

 

all in all...last season somewhat supports my argument, but the season prior to last and the one before that supports it quite a bit better.....and I think his main problem is that he tries playing through certain injuries that he should just rest up a week or 2 on rather than blowing a gasket...

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That would be fine and dandy except Jackson has only had one run of 50 or more yards in the past two years. He is MUCH too slow to be considered a home run threat.

 

Why are you making things up to defend your argument?

 

In 2007, he had 3 50+ runs, two for TDs.

In 2008, he had another.

 

In the last two years, he has had four 50+ runs, 11th best in the NFL.....while missing 8 of 32 games.

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Why are you making things up to defend your argument?

 

In 2007, he had 3 50+ runs, two for TDs.

In 2008, he had another.

 

In the last two years, he has had four 50+ runs, 11th best in the NFL.....while missing 8 of 32 games.

 

exactly...always a threat to take it all the way, unlike Portis, Jacobs, etc.

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If we aren't able to use the last two seasons as history, what do you suggest we look at?

 

the same way we suspected AD or Turner might be worth a 1st round pick...flashes of greatness

 

 

 

 

 

 

If his numbers from the last two seasons are such an aberration, what numbers do you project that he puts up this year?

 

 

ok...-

300/1350 12td

60/500 3td just off the top of my head

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Why are you making things up to defend your argument?

 

In 2007, he had 3 50+ runs, two for TDs.

In 2008, he had another.

 

In the last two years, he has had four 50+ runs, 11th best in the NFL.....while missing 8 of 32 games.

 

I definitely agree and while you weren't responding to me in your post, my point was about what he did with the ball when he wasn't breaking a long run...

 

...which was pretty much nothing most of the time..

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my point was about what he did with the ball when he wasn't breaking a long run...

...which was pretty much nothing most of the time..

 

no question his long runs help...but as has been discussed before ad nauseum with regard to RBs, you can't take "breaking the long run" out of the equation.

 

Lets look at the #1 RB last year, AP:

 

6 of his 16 games he failed to crack 100 yards (77,80,32,85,80,76)

 

Some of his other games:

 

19 for 103 (34)...take out the 34 yarder, and he was 18 for 69. meh

22 for 121 (54)...take out the 54 yarder, and he was 21 for 67. meh

28 for 131 (59)...take out the 59 yarder, and he was 27 for 72. ugly

21 for 103 (67)...take out the 67 yarder, and he was 20 for 36. pathetic

25 for 139 (40 +36)...take out the two long runs, and he was 23 for 63. meh

 

So he had 5 good games without breaking a long one, and 11 others that were either sub-par or made worthy by breaking a long run.

 

All this while playing behind a line superior to SJax, and a defense that kept them in games and allowed them to continue to execute a running game-plan.

 

Point is, the ability to run hard in small spaces coupled with the ability break a long run makes good RBs great, and SJax fits that bill....and there aren't many of them.

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Why are you making things up to defend your argument?

 

In 2007, he had 3 50+ runs, two for TDs.

In 2008, he had another.

 

In the last two years, he has had four 50+ runs, 11th best in the NFL.....while missing 8 of 32 games.

My bad. I must have been looking at the wrong game log or something. I see it now. I honestly have no clue what I was looking for. Thanks for straightening that out.

 

Isn't it alarming then that he only had one last year?

 

I honestly don't thnk Jackson plays all that hard once the Rams play themselves out of the race. I think he sits games when he doesn't need to. Unless you see St. Louis being much more competetive, I think there has to be a possibility where this kind of behavior happens again.

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Here are some reasons to be optimistic about S-Jax this year:

 

With the West Coast Offense being implemented, and the fact that the most proven receiver they have on the roster is a 2nd year pro in Donnie Avery, S-Jax should easily eclipse his 43 rec year avg. I don't see him getting back into the 80 rec range, but the 60's don't appear out of the question. They have improved their O-line quite a bit with an All Pro C and the drafts top Tackle. Yes, Jason Smith isn't going to start at LT, but he will be starting at RT. That is traditionally more of a run blocking OT anyway. As usual, they play cupcake schedule. All the D's in that division are awful against the run.

 

Reasons not to like S-Jax:

 

He has a history of injuries and with his punishing running style I don't see that changing. He's on one of the worst teams in the league, so they will be playing catch up quite often making the running game obsolete at times.

 

With all this said, I think all signs point to S-Jax having a very productive year. Keep in mind that he held out for all of training camp and the majority of the pre-season last year. That could have contributed to his slow start and injury. Yes, he's a risky first round pick, but please tell which RB's don't have allot of risk this year?

Edited by Capt. Stanky
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Isn't it alarming then that he only had one last year?

 

Not at all when you look at how injured his O-line was. They definitely IMPROVED their line, therefore I am assuming he will get more room to run. When he has had room to run, he has been a beast. Therefore, worth a 1st round pick.

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SJ is a stud and one of the few RB's out there that is 1st round worthy. Most importantly, he is the centerpiece of the Rams offense and will get the touches. Unfortunately, the O-line has been crap and he's been injury prone. Like others have said earlier, the Rams have little to no weapons in the passing game as well which will make owners hesitant. That's fine with me, I'll take him late in the 1st round and worry about his injuries if/when they occur. In PPR leagues, SJ is a top performer and always contributes in the passing game even if his rushing totals are subpar.

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