TE Rankings

[Brentastic]

Figure PPR and standard scoring the rest of the way. Here's what I got for 2009:

 

Antonio Gates - I know he's going to outperform last year's numbers. Plus, he's the best talent at the position.

Kellen Winslow - Call it a hunch. Plus he's the 2nd best talent at the position.

Jason Witten - T.O. gone, Romo loves him, pretty safe pick here. Could disappoint his ADP due to added attention with T.O. gone, but probably not.

Dallas Clark - It's gonna be the Wayne and Clark show this season. Solid TE with a top tier QB who loves him, what's not to like?

Greg Olsen - Just watch him grow this season. He could land anywhere in the top 5 (including #1).

Chris Cooley - Solid every year, I probably won't draft him but he deserves this spot based on consistency and youth.

Owen Daniels - Don't be surprised to see this guy in the top 5 this season. Career highs in rec and yards in 08 - the TDs should follow this year.

Zach Miller - If Garcia is QB, I'm not sure he will produce as he should. If Russell is starting, he will need to rely on someone - someone is Miller.

Tony Gonzalez - I won't draft this aging TE but you can't argue his production. New team, young QB - too much uncertainty but he deserves top 10.

Jeremy Shockey - I'm about to D-list this character but he deserves one more chance if only because NO will throw a bajillion times.

Edited July 7, 2009 by Brentastic

[tazinib1]

I'm just not a hugh Zack Miller fan. He could change my mind this year though. I'd swap him out with John Carlson.

 

I'd also put Owen Daniels in the top 5 as long as Schaub is healthy.

[Brentastic]

I'm just not a hugh Zack Miller fan. He could change my mind this year though. I'd swap him out with John Carlson.

 

I'd also put Owen Daniels in the top 5 as long as Schaub is healthy.

You take those 4 guys I have after Witten - they are all pretty equal in my eyes, so yes, like I stated, Daniels could easily be a top 5 this year.

 

Top 3, IMO, are the cream of the crop. Next 4 are close. Bottom 3 are riskier and less appealing. For me, I'm aiming to get one of those top 7, hopefully Gates.

[Tford]

Tier 1

Jason Witten - His rec and TD numbers will go up with TO gone.

Dallas Clark - Harrison is gone and I think Manning leans harder on the targets that he knows.

Tier 2

Antonio Gates - SD is transitioning into a passing offense. Gates is elite TE talent but he needs to prove that he can stay healthy for 16 games.

Owen Daniels - I think HOU is the next great offense and Daniels is a great receiver from the TE spot.

Greg Olsen - Olsen is the best pass-catcher on a team that just traded for a franchise QB. All the signs are there for a big breakout.

Tony Gonzalez - Almost blasphemy leaving Gonzalez out of the top 5 but I think his targets go down slightly given the rest of the talent on the team. There are only so many touches to be had.

Tier 3

Chris Cooley - Always hanging around the top 10, Cooley never seems to break into that elite status but I have no doubt that he finishes well once again. Campbell goes to him everytime things break down.

John Carlson - Seattle should throw more than any Jim Mora Jr. team ever has. Hass likes to use his TEs and Carlson proved last year that he can be a impact player in the passing game.

Tier 4

Kellen Winslow Jr. - I don't like Winslow's prospects for this year compared to what he could do if he was still in Cleveland. Luke McCown or Byron Leftwich? No thanks. Someone else can draft this guy. That being said, Winslow immediately becomes a top target in TB and he goes top 5 if Jeff Garcia is still in TB IMO.

Zach Miller - Best hands on the team and probably the best receiver on the team. Gets lots of targets but TD numbers are low. I think he scores more than one TD this year and his receptions and yardage looks similar. His totals last year were good enough for 9th among TEs in 1 PPR leagues.

Edited July 7, 2009 by Tford

[Square]

I'm planning on ending up with Owen Daniels this year (w/ maybe Z. Miller as a backup) in one league. My main local uses CBS and luckily they have Daniels ranked as the 10th best TE. Their rankings below (just in case you care). I owned Daniels last year and he was pretty consistent with receptions and yardage (especially when Schaub was healthy). The TDs will come, but I think I can get him cheaper than an elite TE and I really like consistency from the TE spot. Miller was a late season helper when Schaub went down. Russell liked throwing to Miller so depending on how the QB situation shakes out, Miller may be a good cheap TE in a PPR. Without PPR both these guys take a hit with their chance for low TD production.

 

 

 

 

Clark

Witten

Gates

Gonzo

Olsen

D. Keller - ?

Cooley

John Carlson

K. Winslow

O. Daniels

Boss

Shiancoe

Z. Miller

[i_am_the_swammi]

Brent Celek could be a nice #2 TE with upside. He performed very well when given the chance last year, and with LJ Smith finally out of the way, he's the starter on an offense that loves using the TE downfield and in the red zone.

 

Only caveat: the rookie Cornelius Ingram has looked sensational in mini-camps and full healed, and if he progresses as hoped, could be a factor as the season progresses.

[MICHAEL_T]

We all have our favorite TE's, but to place Gonzo any lower than third is a hugh mistake. The Falcons did not aquire him to block, or for that matter, for his good looks. The one area that the Falcons needed was another receiver option, and now they have it. If Gonzo stays healthy, which is always an issue in fantasy football, he should have at least 70 catches, and 6-10 TD's. My guess is he will have a slow start, with the new team and all, but by the second half, you will see a spike in his production. Gonzo is a stud...pure and simple. By the way, the Falcons have a sleeper in Harry Douglas. In keepr/dynasty leagues, he is a WR you should stash away. Great upside and could replace Jenkins at some point next season, or even 2009 if there is an injury.

[Brentastic]

We all have our favorite TE's, but to place Gonzo any lower than third is a hugh mistake. The Falcons did not aquire him to block, or for that matter, for his good looks. The one area that the Falcons needed was another receiver option, and now they have it. If Gonzo stays healthy, which is always an issue in fantasy football, he should have at least 70 catches, and 6-10 TD's. My guess is he will have a slow start, with the new team and all, but by the second half, you will see a spike in his production. Gonzo is a stud...pure and simple. By the way, the Falcons have a sleeper in Harry Douglas. In keepr/dynasty leagues, he is a WR you should stash away. Great upside and could replace Jenkins at some point next season, or even 2009 if there is an injury.

I hear ya man, you have your list and I'll have mine. I won't be drafting Gonzo this year though.

[westvirginia]

We all have our favorite TE's, but to place Gonzo any lower than third is a hugh mistake. The Falcons did not aquire him to block, or for that matter, for his good looks. The one area that the Falcons needed was another receiver option, and now they have it. If Gonzo stays healthy, which is always an issue in fantasy football, he should have at least 70 catches, and 6-10 TD's. My guess is he will have a slow start, with the new team and all, but by the second half, you will see a spike in his production. Gonzo is a stud...pure and simple. By the way, the Falcons have a sleeper in Harry Douglas. In keepr/dynasty leagues, he is a WR you should stash away. Great upside and could replace Jenkins at some point next season, or even 2009 if there is an injury.

 

I tend to agree with most of this. In fact I think Gonzo is the reason you'll see Ryan not stagnate or regress this year. Gonzo still has as much talent as anyone at the position and has that veteran savvy to get open. I think White could get more yards and TD's on fewer catches because of Gonzo. The birds won't get much further than last year if they can't stop the run, but I like Gonzo and that offense a bunch.

[tazinib1]

I agree that Gonzo is still an elite TE. But to think he will approach last years numbers is reaching for the stars. He'll be asked to block ALOT more than he ever has thus decreasing his targets. Top 5? Yes. But I wouldn't go beyond that.

[Savage Beatings]

I'd be more interested in seeing how people tier these TE's rather than a straight ranking.

[Tford]

I'd be more interested in seeing how people tier these TE's rather than a straight ranking.

 

See above.

[Tford]

We all have our favorite TE's, but to place Gonzo any lower than third is a hugh mistake. The Falcons did not aquire him to block, or for that matter, for his good looks. The one area that the Falcons needed was another receiver option, and now they have it. If Gonzo stays healthy, which is always an issue in fantasy football, he should have at least 70 catches, and 6-10 TD's. My guess is he will have a slow start, with the new team and all, but by the second half, you will see a spike in his production. Gonzo is a stud...pure and simple. By the way, the Falcons have a sleeper in Harry Douglas. In keepr/dynasty leagues, he is a WR you should stash away. Great upside and could replace Jenkins at some point next season, or even 2009 if there is an injury.

 

I'm a Falcon fan, so while I have always like Tony G, I have even more reason to like him now. That being said, Tony G has never played on a team where he is not the number one target.

 

The Falcons ran the ball 560 times last year to throwing 434 times. It would make sense to me to drop that rushing number slightly given the workload issues it creates but I wouldn't expect that number to drop below 500. The Falcons are a running team and have success doing so.

 

So let's say that the Falcons throw 500 times (that would be almost top 10 passing attempts last year). Assuming Ryan keeps his 61.1% completion rate, that's 306 completions.

 

How do you distribute those catches? So Tony gets his "70 catches at least"

 

Here's last year's break down.

 

Player Rec Yds Yds/Rec Long TD

Roddy White 88 1382 15.7 70 7

Michael Jenkins 50 777 15.5 62 3

Jerious Norwood 36 338 9.4 67 2

Harry Douglas 23 320 13.9 69 1

Brian Finneran 21 169 8.0 14 1

Justin Peelle 15 159 10.6 18 2

Jason Snelling 8 89 11.1 27 0

Ovie Mughelli 8 57 7.1 18 0

Michael Turner 6 41 6.8 18 0

Laurent Robinson 5 52 10.4 23 0

Ben Hartsock 3 26 8.7 17 0

Jason Rader 1 26 26.0 26 0

Eric Weems 1 4 4.0 4 0

 

So say that ALL 41 of the extra recs go to Tony G and you pencil him into all of the TE production (20 rec). That's still only 60 recs. I'm curious as to how you split that out. Whose production drops?

 

 

Tony Gonzalez was targeted 155 times last year (4th in the league) compared to Roddy White's 148 (8th in the league). Those numbers simply can't stay that high for both players.

[westvirginia]

I'm a Falcon fan, so while I have always like Tony G, I have even more reason to like him now. That being said, Tony G has never played on a team where he is not the number one target.

 

The Falcons ran the ball 560 times last year to throwing 434 times. It would make sense to me to drop that rushing number slightly given the workload issues it creates but I wouldn't expect that number to drop below 500. The Falcons are a running team and have success doing so.

 

So let's say that the Falcons throw 500 times (that would be almost top 10 passing attempts last year). Assuming Ryan keeps his 61.1% completion rate, that's 306 completions.

 

How do you distribute those catches? So Tony gets his "70 catches at least"

 

Here's last year's break down.

 

Player Rec Yds Yds/Rec Long TD

Roddy White 88 1382 15.7 70 7

Michael Jenkins 50 777 15.5 62 3

Jerious Norwood 36 338 9.4 67 2

Harry Douglas 23 320 13.9 69 1

Brian Finneran 21 169 8.0 14 1

Justin Peelle 15 159 10.6 18 2

Jason Snelling 8 89 11.1 27 0

Ovie Mughelli 8 57 7.1 18 0

Michael Turner 6 41 6.8 18 0

Laurent Robinson 5 52 10.4 23 0

Ben Hartsock 3 26 8.7 17 0

Jason Rader 1 26 26.0 26 0

Eric Weems 1 4 4.0 4 0

 

So say that ALL 41 of the extra recs go to Tony G and you pencil him into all of the TE production (20 rec). That's still only 60 recs. I'm curious as to how you split that out. Whose production drops?

 

 

Tony Gonzalez was targeted 155 times last year (4th in the league) compared to Roddy White's 148 (8th in the league). Those numbers simply can't stay that high for both players.

 

Like I said earlier, I think White does more with fewer catches. I can see him running fewer crossing routes and more posts and deep outs. Everyone forgets he has burner-speed. I can see Jenkins losing some looks as well as the RB dumpoffs diminishing. JMO

[Cowboyz1]

Martellus Bennett is in my top ten as I see a very athletic 6' 6" TE with good hands in his second year with Witten on the other side. He gets 40+ catches and 6-8 TD's this year. Had three in consecutive games last year and made some nice plays as a rookie. Could be a very nice sleeper pick especially if any of our wide outs miss some games.

[Scooby]

I like Shiancoe the most, followed by Boss & Celek as late round fliers with lots of upside.

[piratesownninjas]

Clark

Witten

Gates

 

Gonzo

Olsen

Winslow

 

Cooley

Shiancoe

John Carlson

Daniels

Edited July 8, 2009 by piratesownninjas

[Square]

Someone has to talk me through the Winslow thing. I get that he is a stud, but TB just seems to be in a rebuilding year. Freeman never really threw to his TE much in college and (this is just me) I don't know a lot about what kind of offense they are going to be running this year. Why is everyone so sure this transplant (who has had injuries) is going to work out so great in the first year of a new system? I understand the leap of faith with Olsen, but winslow just seems to have more ?s.

[Brentastic]

Someone has to talk me through the Winslow thing. I get that he is a stud, but TB just seems to be in a rebuilding year. Freeman never really threw to his TE much in college and (this is just me) I don't know a lot about what kind of offense they are going to be running this year. Why is everyone so sure this transplant (who has had injuries) is going to work out so great in the first year of a new system? I understand the leap of faith with Olsen, but winslow just seems to have more ?s.

First off, I haven't seen anyone else really hyping Winslow - then again, I don't pay too much attention to rankings. Is he projected as a top 3 like I have him?

 

Anywho, it is my belief that a new QB, new system and lack of WRs (other than Bryant who definitely lacks consistency) combined with the elite abilities that Winslow posesses, will allow Winslow to be a top 3 TE. If Freeman ends up being the starter, that helps my claim even more since rookie QBs just tend to lean more on the TE. I mean, you know Winslow will play through anything, so durability is not an issue. The Bucks, presumably, will be playing from behind..... A LOT, which means even more opportunities for him. I don't know, for me it just seems obvious and I don't really know anything about the new coach or what type of offense he runs. I would assume the Bucks got Winslow for a reason though.

[Square]

First off, I haven't seen anyone else really hyping Winslow - then again, I don't pay too much attention to rankings. Is he projected as a top 3 like I have him?

 

Anywho, it is my belief that a new QB, new system and lack of WRs (other than Bryant who definitely lacks consistency) combined with the elite abilities that Winslow posesses, will allow Winslow to be a top 3 TE. If Freeman ends up being the starter, that helps my claim even more since rookie QBs just tend to lean more on the TE. I mean, you know Winslow will play through anything, so durability is not an issue. The Bucks, presumably, will be playing from behind..... A LOT, which means even more opportunities for him. I don't know, for me it just seems obvious and I don't really know anything about the new coach or what type of offense he runs. I would assume the Bucks got Winslow for a reason though.

Yea, they paid him a bunch of cash. I just don't feel comfortable pegging him in as a Tier 1 TE in this situation (4th overall). I'd at least bump him down a few just because of all the unknowns, but maybe he'll pan out. I just don't feel comfortable taking a risk on him. I'll let some other owner grab him unless he falls to me late (CBS has him projected at the 9th TE, so they are much lower on him).