Tford Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 One thing I've always put stock in for fantasy football is consistency. If my player is supposed to be a RB1, how often does he actually score enough points to be ranked as such in any given week. The Huddle has consistency rankings for offensive players that are based off of certain stat milestones and spit out a percentage rank that give you a clear indication of the "odds" of your player performing as you expect him to. It's a great way to make decisions on who to draft/trade for when you view two players as equals otherwise. I got to thinking, why not do the same with defense? Sure, there is a greater measure of chance when it comes to predicting defensive stats. Plays are rarely designed to incorporate defensive players into the game (with the exception of blitzes or robber zones); in fact, often the opposite occurs as the offense gameplans to keep the ball away from an impact player on the defense. IDPs are usually matched up man-on-man or assigned gaps or zones and only the offense determines where the ball goes. In that respect, defense is rather difficult to predict. That being said, I still think that the cream regularly rises to the top regardless of how the offense chooses to address the defense it is playing against. I believe that scheme and talent have a greater part in determining IDP production than sheer opportunity, although opportunity is a big contributor. How it works: I used ATAP/AOTAOP LB scoring for this because I'm in both leagues. I also find it to be extremely balanced compared to most polar tackle or big play IDP scoring. AOTAOP scoring. The scoring is probably a little different than your leagues in small ways but I think the underlying point remains. I operated under the assumption that LB1 scoring was top 10, LB2 scoring was top 20 and LB3 scoring was top 30. The percentage indicates the ratio of top 10, top 20 and top 30 LB scoring games (versus all other LBs for that week) to the total number of games played by that LB in the year. I would have liked to incorporate milestones into the model to more accurately reflect the huddle model for consistency rankings but because there are so many way to score points as a LB, it was difficult to distinguish what stats were considered milestones. Therefore if Barrett Ruud shows 75% in the Top 30% column, that means that in 75% of his games last year, he was at least a top 30 LB for those weeks. Here it is, sorted to top 30%. Some names won't surprise you, some will. Top 10 % Top 20 % Top 30 %Ruud, Barrett TBB LB 18.8% 62.5% 75.0%Vilma, Jonathan NOS LB 31.3% 50.0% 75.0%Beason, Jon CAR LB 43.8% 50.0% 68.8%Harrison, James PIT LB 40.0% 66.7% 66.7%Cooper, Stephen SDC LB 33.3% 41.7% 66.7%Crowder, C. MIA LB 20.0% 26.7% 66.7%Jackson, D'Qwell CLE LB 25.0% 56.3% 62.5%Diles, Zach HOU LB 25.0% 50.0% 62.5%Jones, Dhani CIN LB 6.3% 43.8% 62.5%Brackett, Gary IND LB 16.7% 33.3% 58.3%Ware, Demarcus DAL LB 18.8% 50.0% 56.3%James, Bradie DAL LB 25.0% 43.8% 56.3%Dansby, Karlos ARI LB 18.8% 31.3% 56.3%Posluszny, Paul BUF LB 0.0% 6.3% 56.3%Williams, DJ DEN LB 27.3% 36.4% 54.5%Willis, Patrick SFO LB 37.5% 50.0% 50.0%Farrior, James PIT LB 25.0% 50.0% 50.0%Henderson, E.J. MIN LB 25.0% 50.0% 50.0%Fletcher, London WAS LB 12.5% 43.8% 50.0%Lewis, Ray BAL LB 25.0% 37.5% 50.0%Ryans, DeMeco HOU LB 18.8% 37.5% 50.0%Winborn, Jamie DEN LB 12.5% 31.3% 50.0%Morrison, Kirk OAK LB 18.8% 43.8% 43.8%Briggs, Lance CHI LB 37.5% 37.5% 43.8%Pace, Calvin NYJ LB 18.8% 31.3% 43.8%Greenway, Chad MIN LB 12.5% 31.3% 43.8%Bulluck, Keith TEN LB 12.5% 31.3% 43.8%Bradley, Stewart PHI LB 18.8% 25.0% 43.8%Urlacher, Brian CHI LB 6.3% 12.5% 43.8%Keiaho, Freddie IND LB 14.3% 28.6% 42.9%Bailey, Boss DEN LB 0.0% 28.6% 42.9%Hill, Leroy SEA LB 8.3% 25.0% 41.7%Woodley, LaMarr PIT LB 26.7% 33.3% 40.0%Davis, Thomas CAR LB 25.0% 31.3% 37.5%Mayo, Jerod NEP LB 18.8% 25.0% 37.5%Barton, Eric NYJ LB 18.8% 25.0% 37.5%Peterson, Julian SEA LB 12.5% 18.8% 37.5%Spikes, Takeo SFO LB 6.3% 18.8% 37.5%Jeanty, Rashad CIN LB 0.0% 18.8% 37.5%Sims, Ernie DET LB 12.5% 12.5% 37.5%Harris, David NYJ LB 9.1% 27.3% 36.4%Boiman, Rocky KCC LB 9.1% 18.2% 36.4%Johnson, Derrick KCC LB 7.1% 35.7% 35.7%Tatupu, Lofa SEA LB 6.7% 26.7% 33.3%Lenon, Paris DET LB 18.8% 25.0% 31.3%Tinoisamoa, Pisa STL LB 12.5% 18.8% 31.3%Howard, Thomas OAK LB 12.5% 18.8% 31.3%Thomas, Zach DAL LB 0.0% 18.8% 31.3%Webster, Nate DEN LB 15.4% 30.8% 30.8%Fujita, Scott NOS LB 28.6% 28.6% 28.6%Rivers, Keith CIN LB 0.0% 28.6% 28.6%Chillar, Brandon GBP LB 7.1% 14.3% 28.6%Brown, Ricky OAK LB 0.0% 0.0% 28.6%Hayes, Gerald ARI LB 12.5% 25.0% 25.0%McIntosh, Roger WAS LB 12.5% 25.0% 25.0%Porter, Joey MIA LB 12.5% 18.8% 25.0%Mitchell, Kawika BUF LB 12.5% 12.5% 25.0%Hawk, A.J. GBP LB 6.3% 12.5% 25.0%Tulloch, Stephen TEN LB 6.3% 12.5% 25.0%Witherspoon, Will STL LB 0.0% 12.5% 25.0%Brooking, Keith ATL LB 0.0% 6.3% 25.0%Session, Clint IND LB 0.0% 6.3% 25.0%Thomas, Adalius NEP LB 0.0% 11.1% 22.2%Lewis, D.D. SEA LB 0.0% 7.1% 21.4%Peterson, Mike JAC LB 6.7% 20.0% 20.0%Woodyard, W. DEN LB 0.0% 20.0% 20.0%Washington, M. WAS LB 0.0% 20.0% 20.0%Harris, Napoleon MIN LB 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%Johnson, Brandon CIN LB 12.5% 18.8% 18.8%Timmons, L. PIT LB 6.3% 18.8% 18.8%Gaither, Omar PHI LB 6.3% 18.8% 18.8%Leber, Ben MIN LB 6.3% 12.5% 18.8%Gocong, Chris PHI LB 6.3% 12.5% 18.8%Diggs, Na'il CAR LB 0.0% 12.5% 18.8%Vrabel, Mike NEP LB 6.3% 6.3% 18.8%Okeafor, Chike ARI LB 6.3% 6.3% 18.8%Boley, Michael ATL LB 6.3% 6.3% 18.8%Roth, Matt MIA LB 0.0% 6.3% 18.8%Brooks, Derrick TBB LB 0.0% 6.3% 18.8%Wimbley, K. CLE LB 0.0% 0.0% 18.8%Lofton, Curtis ATL LB 0.0% 0.0% 18.8%Laboy, Travis ARI LB 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%Bruschi, Tedy NEP LB 0.0% 0.0% 15.4%Adibi, Xavier HOU LB 14.3% 14.3% 14.3%Smith, Daryl JAC LB 0.0% 14.3% 14.3%Lawson, Manny SFO LB 7.1% 7.1% 14.3%McGinest, Willie CLE LB 0.0% 0.0% 14.3%Edwards, Donnie KCC LB 0.0% 0.0% 14.3%Pierce, Antonio NYG LB 13.3% 13.3% 13.3%Bishop, Desmond GBP LB 6.7% 13.3% 13.3%Thornton, David TEN LB 0.0% 6.7% 13.3%Scott, Bart BAL LB 6.3% 12.5% 12.5%Phillips, Shaun SDC LB 6.3% 12.5% 12.5%Jordan, Akeem PHI LB 6.3% 12.5% 12.5%Ayodele, Akinola MIA LB 0.0% 12.5% 12.5%Wire, Coy ATL LB 6.3% 6.3% 12.5%Shanle, Scott NOS LB 6.3% 6.3% 12.5%Johnson, Jarret BAL LB 6.3% 6.3% 12.5%Davis, Andra CLE LB 0.0% 6.3% 12.5%Ellis, Greg DAL LB 0.0% 6.3% 12.5%Poppinga, Brady GBP LB 0.0% 6.3% 12.5%Williams, Dem. KCC LB 0.0% 6.3% 12.5%Culberson, Q. STL LB 0.0% 6.3% 12.5%Nece, Ryan DET LB 0.0% 0.0% 12.5%Hayes, Geno TBB LB 0.0% 11.1% 11.1%Barnett, Nick GBP LB 0.0% 0.0% 11.1%Woods, Pierre NEP LB 8.3% 8.3% 8.3%Hunter, Jason GBP LB 0.0% 0.0% 8.3%Thomas, Pat KCC LB 0.0% 0.0% 8.3%Tucker, Jyles SDC LB 0.0% 7.7% 7.7%Durant, Justin JAC LB 0.0% 7.1% 7.1%Roach, Nick CHI LB 0.0% 0.0% 7.1%Dunbar, Jo-Lonn NOS LB 0.0% 0.0% 7.1%Harris, Marques SDC LB 0.0% 6.7% 6.7%McClain, Jameel BAL LB 0.0% 6.7% 6.7%Greenwood, M. HOU LB 0.0% 0.0% 6.7%Dobbins, Tim SDC LB 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%Bowens, David NYJ LB 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%Blackburn, Chase NYG LB 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%Kehl, Bryan NYG LB 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%Bentley, Kevin HOU LB 0.0% 6.3% 6.3%Anderson, Charlie MIA LB 0.0% 6.3% 6.3%Thomas, Bryan NYJ LB 0.0% 6.3% 6.3%Wilhelm, Matt SDC LB 0.0% 6.3% 6.3%June, Cato TBB LB 0.0% 0.0% 6.3%Ellison, Keith BUF LB 0.0% 0.0% 6.3%Foote, Larry PIT LB 0.0% 0.0% 6.3%Haralson, Parys SFO LB 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% Interesting tidbits - The top LB of the year, Patrick Willis, was not in the top 15 most consistent top 30 scorers. However, six of his eight consistency ranking games were in the top 10 with the remaining two in the top 20. However, that means that in eight of his games, he did not finish in the top 30 for that week. - Paul Posluszny (24th in total scoring amongst LBs) was actually a more consistent top 30 scorer than Patrick Willis, DJ Williams (12th in PPG) and James Farrior (12th in total scoring amongst LBs) but only had one top 20 LB scoring game all year. - Scott Fujita was ranked 7th amongst consistency scoring in the top 10. All four of his rankings games were top 10 finishes for that week. - Only four 3-4 OLBs were in the top 40 of consistency rankings for top 30 %; James Harrison (4th), DeMarcus Ware (11th), Calvin Pace (25th) and LaMarr Woodley (33th). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 nicely done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 - The top LB of the year, Patrick Willis, was not in the top 15 most consistent top 30 scorers. However, six of his eight consistency ranking games were in the top 10 with the remaining two in the top 20. However, that means that in eight of his games, he did not finish in the top 30 for that week. - Paul Posluszny (24th in total scoring amongst LBs) was actually a more consistent top 30 scorer than Patrick Willis, DJ Williams (12th in PPG) and James Farrior (12th in total scoring amongst LBs) but only had one top 20 LB scoring game all year. First off, that is outstanding work and does provide some surprising and interesting information. That said (you knew this was coming... ), when you look at the two statements above, I think it makes you wonder how relevant consistency is. Willis right now is THE dominant FF LB. That he doesn't rank near the top in consistency makes me wonder exactly how important consistency is(and up to now I have shared your thoughts about wanting consistent scorers in your lineup). I have a feeling it is because IDP leagues have grown to the extent that they start corps of LBs - with many leagues now using a full 11 man D, meaning you can start 3 to 4 LBs every week. Because of this, I think you can put together a crew of LBs who may not be consistent, but with their high scoring capability will perform better each week than a crew of very consistent LBs - with one LB's big week more than offsetting a poor week by someone like Willis. And when a Willis does go off, he goes off in a hugh way. So now that I've addressed this, I may rethink my priorities a bit in drafting not only D where you put together groups of LBs and DBs, but also O where you can put together a grouping of WRs in most leagues. Interesting - and thought provoking. Nicely done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tford Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 First off, that is outstanding work and does provide some surprising and interesting information. That said (you knew this was coming... ), when you look at the two statements above, I think it makes you wonder how relevant consistency is. Willis right now is THE dominant FF LB. That he doesn't rank near the top in consistency makes me wonder exactly how important consistency is(and up to now I have shared your thoughts about wanting consistent scorers in your lineup). I have a feeling it is because IDP leagues have grown to the extent that they start corps of LBs - with many leagues now using a full 11 man D, meaning you can start 3 to 4 LBs every week. Because of this, I think you can put together a crew of LBs who may not be consistent, but with their high scoring capability will perform better each week than a crew of very consistent LBs - with one LB's big week more than offsetting a poor week by someone like Willis. And when a Willis does go off, he goes off in a hugh way. So now that I've addressed this, I may rethink my priorities a bit in drafting not only D where you put together groups of LBs and DBs, but also O where you can put together a grouping of WRs in most leagues. Interesting - and thought provoking. Nicely done. Great point. I agree that there is no comparison between Willis and Poz. That being said, if you were trying to decide which LB is better of Poz and a similar tiered LB; all things being equal, I like the consistent guy. And perhaps a comparison to Willis consistency was a poor one but it illustrated how certain LBs can be set apart from similarly ranked LBs based on how often they score what you expect them to score. I think it is a comforting feeling to know that your guy will score what he is supposed to score more weeks than not. Thanks for the comments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 (edited) That being said, if you were trying to decide which LB is better of Poz and a similar tiered LB; all things being equal, I like the consistent guy. Agreed And perhaps a comparison to Willis consistency was a poor one but it illustrated how certain LBs can be set apart from similarly ranked LBs based on how often they score what you expect them to score. I don't think it's a poor comparison at all. It makes you think outside the box a bit when you see evidence like this and it goes directly in the face of what you would normally consider common sense. It's a great comparison in that it makes you think beyond your comfort level. Thanks for the comments. Happy to be the ripper instead of the rippee for once... Edited July 9, 2009 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tford Posted June 8, 2010 Author Share Posted June 8, 2010 (edited) Update for the last year. Top 10 % Top 20 % Top 30 % Davis, Thomas CAR LB 57.1% 71.4% 85.7% Posluszny, Paul BUF LB 25.0% 75.0% 83.3% Willis, Patrick SFO LB 43.8% 68.8% 81.3% Cushing, Brian HOU LB 31.3% 56.3% 75.0% Williams, DJ DEN LB 12.5% 37.5% 68.8% Briggs, Lance CHI LB 26.7% 46.7% 66.7% Jackson, D'Qwell CLE LB 16.7% 50.0% 66.7% Boley, Michael NYG LB 27.3% 54.5% 63.6% Lewis, Ray BAL LB 31.3% 37.5% 62.5% Beason, Jon CAR LB 43.8% 50.0% 62.5% Fletcher, London WAS LB 25.0% 37.5% 62.5% Jordan, Akeem PHI LB 8.3% 41.7% 58.3% Ruud, Barrett TBB LB 31.3% 56.3% 56.3% Morrison, Kirk OAK LB 31.3% 31.3% 56.3% Smith, Daryl JAC LB 12.5% 31.3% 56.3% Williams, Demorrio KCC LB 6.3% 25.0% 56.3% Tulloch, Stephen TEN LB 12.5% 37.5% 56.3% Hawthorne, David SEA LB 31.3% 43.8% 56.3% Lofton, Curtis ATL LB 18.8% 37.5% 56.3% Harris, David NYJ LB 25.0% 37.5% 56.3% Vilma, Jonathan NOS LB 12.5% 43.8% 56.3% Hayes, Geno TBB LB 20.0% 20.0% 53.3% Laurinaitis, James STL LB 12.5% 37.5% 50.0% Peterson, Mike ATL LB 18.8% 31.3% 50.0% Brooking, Keith DAL LB 12.5% 31.3% 50.0% Dansby, Karlos ARI LB 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% Bulluck, Keith TEN LB 28.6% 28.6% 50.0% Session, Clint IND LB 21.4% 35.7% 50.0% Brackett, Gary IND LB 21.4% 35.7% 50.0% Ellison, Keith BUF LB 12.5% 50.0% 50.0% Greenway, Chad MIN LB 12.5% 18.8% 43.8% Jones, Dhani CIN LB 0.0% 25.0% 43.8% Barnett, Nick GBP LB 6.3% 18.8% 43.8% Harrison, James PIT LB 18.8% 18.8% 43.8% Henderson, E.J. MIN LB 0.0% 25.0% 41.7% Woodley, LaMarr PIT LB 18.8% 31.3% 37.5% Kelsay, Chris BUF DE 6.3% 12.5% 37.5% Ryans, DeMeco HOU LB 6.3% 31.3% 37.5% Hawk, A.J. GBP LB 6.3% 25.0% 37.5% Schobel, Aaron BUF DE 12.5% 25.0% 37.5% Carter, Andre WAS DE 31.3% 31.3% 37.5% Dumervil, Elvis DEN LB 6.3% 25.0% 37.5% Ware, Demarcus DAL LB 6.3% 31.3% 37.5% Timmons, Lawrence PIT LB 14.3% 21.4% 35.7% Spikes, Takeo SFO LB 0.0% 6.7% 33.3% Nicholas, Stephen ATL LB 0.0% 12.5% 31.3% James, Bradie DAL LB 12.5% 25.0% 31.3% Davis, Andra DEN LB 12.5% 25.0% 31.3% Banta-Cain, Tully NEP LB 6.3% 18.8% 31.3% Bowens, David CLE LB 12.5% 18.8% 31.3% Matthews, Clay GBP LB 6.3% 25.0% 31.3% Mayo, Jerod NEP LB 23.1% 23.1% 30.8% Durant, Justin JAC LB 23.1% 30.8% 30.8% Foote, Larry DET LB 7.1% 21.4% 28.6% Hillenmeyer, Hunter CHI LB 14.3% 21.4% 28.6% Thornton, David TEN LB 9.1% 18.2% 27.3% Burnett, Kevin SDC LB 9.1% 27.3% 27.3% Fujita, Scott NOS LB 0.0% 9.1% 27.3% Spencer, Anthony DAL LB 18.8% 18.8% 25.0% Levy, DeAndre DET LB 6.3% 18.8% 25.0% Scott, Trevor OAK DE 6.3% 12.5% 25.0% Farrior, James PIT LB 6.3% 18.8% 25.0% Howard, Thomas OAK LB 0.0% 6.3% 25.0% Lawson, Manny SFO LB 6.3% 12.5% 25.0% Taylor, Jason MIA LB 12.5% 18.8% 25.0% Orakpo, Brian WAS LB 6.3% 18.8% 25.0% Johnson, Jarret BAL LB 0.0% 12.5% 25.0% Cooper, Stephen SDC LB 12.5% 18.8% 25.0% Phillips, Shaun SDC LB 12.5% 12.5% 25.0% Pace, Calvin NYJ LB 8.3% 16.7% 25.0% Witherspoon, Will PHI LB 5.9% 11.8% 23.5% Rivers, Keith CIN LB 7.7% 7.7% 23.1% Shanle, Scott NOS LB 7.1% 14.3% 21.4% Dobbins, Tim SDC LB 14.3% 21.4% 21.4% Wimbley, Kamerion CLE LB 0.0% 6.7% 20.0% McIntosh, Roger WAS LB 0.0% 6.3% 18.8% Anderson, James CAR LB 6.3% 6.3% 18.8% Mays, Corey KCC LB 0.0% 6.3% 18.8% Black, Quincy TBB LB 12.5% 18.8% 18.8% Hali, Tamba KCC LB 12.5% 12.5% 18.8% Siler, Brandon SDC LB 0.0% 12.5% 18.8% Curry, Aaron SEA LB 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% Porter, Joey MIA LB 7.1% 14.3% 14.3% Vrabel, Mike KCC LB 0.0% 14.3% 14.3% Maualuga, Rey CIN LB 0.0% 6.7% 13.3% Johnson, Derrick KCC LB 6.7% 6.7% 13.3% Wheeler, Philip IND LB 0.0% 6.3% 12.5% Trusnik, Jason CLE LB 0.0% 6.3% 12.5% Diles, Zach HOU LB 0.0% 12.5% 12.5% Peterson, Julian DET LB 6.3% 12.5% 12.5% Guyton, Gary NEP LB 0.0% 6.3% 12.5% Roach, Nick CHI LB 6.3% 12.5% 12.5% Haggans, Clark ARI LB 0.0% 12.5% 12.5% Scott, Bart NYJ LB 0.0% 12.5% 12.5% Blackburn, Chase NYG LB 6.3% 6.3% 12.5% Johnson, Brandon CIN LB 0.0% 12.5% 12.5% Haralson, Parys SFO LB 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% Ayodele, Akinola MIA LB 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% Thomas, Bryan NYJ LB 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% Haggan, Mario DEN LB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Edited June 8, 2010 by Tford Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 8, 2010 Share Posted June 8, 2010 Nicely done again, GB! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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