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Board Meeting: Plunging RBs


j2v
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Earlier, we tossed out some backs who didn't do much last year but have greater expectations this time around. Now let's turn the tables: who is headed for a fall?

 

No poll this time, as that may have been too limiting with the earlier topic. But here are a couple examples:

• Thomas Jones ranked 8th among 2008 RBs in fantasy points per game, but his 2009 ADP puts him 17th among RBs

• LenDale White and his 15 touchdowns ranked 22nd in fantasy ppg last year; his 2009 ADP among RBs is 30

 

Do you have any other candidates for previously solid performers going belly up this season?

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Deangelo Williams here too

 

And not that I'm down on him but I'm not sure M. Turner improves over last year's numbers

 

I can also see downturns from Westbrook and Thomas Jones due to age and/or injury

 

Oh and I could throw LT, MBIII and Ced Benson in this bunch as well. Anf FWIW Forte may be in the same boat as Turnner. Jeez sure looks like a 1st rd WR for me. :wacko:

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DWill going belly up this season? Really? C'mon guys :wacko: I doubt he'll be a bust, unless you consider 1100 yards and 8 tds a bust which is what think his worst performance would be.

 

And Thomas Jones? I honestly hope he has a great year because EVERY single thread or discussion about who's going to bust this year starts with his name. I mean, literally I have not seen a thread or discussion like this where his name is not mentioned right away. Not exactly enlightening info there...

 

Oh, and piratesownninjas, I have two of your three on my LLD roster, so I hope to prove you wrong my friend :D

 

I'll add mine here - I agree on MBIII - his team doesn't seem to have confidence in him being the feature back this year, so he's no longer top 10 IMO.

Edited by efi4eye
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Westbrook, though I've doubted him before and he's proven me wrong. I think the injuries finally start to catch up with him and a shared workload will make him at best a serviceable RB2 in non-PPR leagues.

 

Marshawn Lynch. Suspension will obviously hurt. So will a poor offensive line. Won't rush for 1,000 yards this season.

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DWill going belly up this season? Really? C'mon guys :wacko: I doubt he'll be a bust, unless you consider 1100 yards and 8 tds a bust which is what think his worst performance would be.

 

And Thomas Jones? I honestly hope he has a great year because EVERY single thread or discussion about who's going to bust this year starts with his name. I mean, literally I have not seen a thread or discussion like this where his name is not mentioned right away. Not exactly enlightening info there...

 

Oh, and piratesownninjas, I have two of your three on my LLD roster, so I hope to prove you wrong my friend :D

 

I'll add mine here - I agree on MBIII - his team doesn't seem to have confidence in him being the feature back this year, so he's no longer top 10 IMO.

Meh, I was talking more about them performing well below where they're drafted, or what they did last year.

 

As far as Thomas Jones goes, look at the work in NY when he didn't have Brett Favre at least making the defenses think about stopping the pass.

 

Chris Johnson is just a jackass, and I think the entire Titans franchise takes a step back this year.

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I think the entire Titans franchise takes a step back this year.

Since they went what 13-3 that wouldn't be saying much.

 

Anyway depends how far you mean by "falling." T Jones most obvious.

Edited by BeeR
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I'll play off the "belly up" comment and assume we're talking about a SIGNIFICANT drop in performance from the previous year

 

 

The ex Bears duo of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson are the most obvious candidates to me. Jones - age is catching up with him, no passing game, and lots of competition in the backfield, he may be able to get a whole season played, but his ypc will be back down closer to his career average of 4 than the robust 4.5 he sported this year. Benson because I fundamentally don't believe he can keep his head straight for more than a half season.

 

A couple of guys that folks probably aren't expecting to do a lot, but will drop off significantly from last year - Justin Fargas (too much Bush/McFadden) and LeRon McLain (I see this as the year of Ray Rice).

 

Those are all probably fairly non controversial...I'll go a bit bolder on two candidates...a lot of conjecture here obviously, but what else can you really offer pre training camp :wacko:

 

1) Derrick Ward - I actually think he'll put up worse numbers than last year with more carries, he had the benefit of a very solid offense and an amazing offensive line in Giants, as well as most often coming in after Jacobs had worn down the defense a bit...no such luxury as "the man" in Tampa. His ypc take a big hit and I'm not thinking he's getting the goal line carries with a healthy Graham there. My bet is he'll perform worse than his ADP

2) Matt Forte - he'll get similiar carries, and put up similiar ypc numbers etc, but I don't believe he's going to get anywhere near the 63 receptions he got this year...I'll hazard that he ends up with 30-40...which clearly doesn't kill his value, but I feel like his ADP is a reflection of folks thinking he's going to be better this year, and that's a bridge I'm just not willing to buy

 

WD

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Those of you claiming DeAngelo Williams as a bust this season - please clarify. I mean, it's probably obvious to any astute fantasy footballer that his numbers will decline from last year. But do you really think he will drop significantly enough to be called a bust?!?!? Shouldn't we determine some quantitative measuring stick to determine the definition of a bust?

 

Obviously, it's my opinion that DWill is one of the top RBs in the league and I think those of you who are down on DWill are nuts. Have you seen him play? This guy is a bonified STUD. He has great vision, great burst through the hole and silky smooth moves. On top of that, he has a great run blocking O-line and a coach who believes in him. His EOS is worst among RBs this season but I still see him as a top 5 RB. I'd be shocked if he's not in the top 12 by season's end.

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Those of you claiming DeAngelo Williams as a bust this season - please clarify. I mean, it's probably obvious to any astute fantasy footballer that his numbers will decline from last year. But do you really think he will drop significantly enough to be called a bust?!?!? Shouldn't we determine some quantitative measuring stick to determine the definition of a bust?

 

Obviously, it's my opinion that DWill is one of the top RBs in the league and I think those of you who are down on DWill are nuts. Have you seen him play? This guy is a bonified STUD. He has great vision, great burst through the hole and silky smooth moves. On top of that, he has a great run blocking O-line and a coach who believes in him. His EOS is worst among RBs this season but I still see him as a top 5 RB. I'd be shocked if he's not in the top 12 by season's end.

 

Ahem

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Those of you claiming DeAngelo Williams as a bust this season - please clarify. I mean, it's probably obvious to any astute fantasy footballer that his numbers will decline from last year. But do you really think he will drop significantly enough to be called a bust?!?!? Shouldn't we determine some quantitative measuring stick to determine the definition of a bust?

 

Obviously, it's my opinion that DWill is one of the top RBs in the league and I think those of you who are down on DWill are nuts. Have you seen him play? This guy is a bonified STUD. He has great vision, great burst through the hole and silky smooth moves. On top of that, he has a great run blocking O-line and a coach who believes in him. His EOS is worst among RBs this season but I still see him as a top 5 RB. I'd be shocked if he's not in the top 12 by season's end.

 

Isn't going from the #2 FF RB to the #12 FF RB (not saying it is going to happen) considered a bust? If he goes for 1,100 and 8 as mentioned above (again, purely someone's projection) as opposed to the 1,500 and 20 he threw up last season, I'd call that a total bust. Thats roughly 112 fewer pts.

 

It may not even be DWill's fault if this happens either. JStew (let me put my Taznib hat on here...) should be in line to get more playing time. He produced nicely last year in the time he was given.

 

Personally, I cannot see him repeating last season's numbers but I also don't see him goin 1,100 and 8. Put me in for 1,250 and 11.

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Travis Henry better not drop soap in the shower. :wacko:

 

 

 

I say Thomas Jones and Chris Johnson too.

 

MJD if they make him the full time starter. If he shares carries I think he'll stay about the same.

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Well, if you draft DW and expect 20 TDs again, well........how long have you been playing FF? The one clear , thing is that DW is a RB1 without a doubt, however, the schedule this year would prelude some drop-off and the JStew factor. The one thing you can take to the bank is that Fox/Davidson will give him the chance to excell once again.......they are going to run the hell outta the ball this year, plus Goodson will factor in the mix as well-good looking rookie and great at catching the ball outta the backfeild. Now the Bears once again have a "Little Sisters of the Blind" schedule again and Forte should by all accounts should have a monster year......aside from the two games vs the Vikings run D. However, if one drafts DW with the knowledge that some drop-off is 100% unavoidable, then you will have yourself a STUD RB on a run happy team.

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DeAngelo is far too talented to drop off completely. 20 TD's? Probably not. 12-15, abso-freakin-lutely! Are you implying that he isn't going to be productive with his carries this season? In the first couple weeks, they are going to give him carries. If he does well with them, they are going to keep giving him carries. He is way too good to keep the ball out of his hands. DeAngelo played so well last season that I still think they have to keep JStew in the 10-15 carry range. How can they bench one of the most talented backs in the NFL? If they want to win games, they simply can't.

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DeAngelo is far too talented to drop off completely. 20 TD's? Probably not. 12-15, abso-freakin-lutely! Are you implying that he isn't going to be productive with his carries this season? In the first couple weeks, they are going to give him carries. If he does well with them, they are going to keep giving him carries. He is way too good to keep the ball out of his hands. DeAngelo played so well last season that I still think they have to keep JStew in the 10-15 carry range. How can they bench one of the most talented backs in the NFL? If they want to win games, they simply can't.

You've clealy just gulped down a gallon of DeAngelo kool-aid. The kid is talented and broke out last year as everything fell into place for the Panthers. Let's see him do it again since he's so talented. I don't recall the Panthers (as a team) having good back to back seasons recently and mostly being very inconsistent as a whole. Don't expect them to terrorize the NFC South and the NFL in general with their rushing attack like they did last year. Opponents have had the entire off season to shuffle their rosters and figure out how to slow down their rushing numbers this year.

 

And don't go assuming DeAngelo will score 12-15 TD's like it's nothing. Those are top tier numbers for RB's so don't take those acheivements for granted. I see more like 8-12 total TD's with Jonathan Stewart eating a little bit more into DeAngelo's fantasy numbers.

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If he's still a RB1, I wouldn't call that a bust. Maybe a little disappointing. But wouldnt a player need to drop a full 'rank' before being considered a bust?

This is how I was going to respond until I had this thing called 'work' I needed to do today. Do any of you people actually have jobs? :wacko:

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You've clealy just gulped down a gallon of DeAngelo kool-aid. The kid is talented and broke out last year as everything fell into place for the Panthers. Let's see him do it again since he's so talented. I don't recall the Panthers (as a team) having good back to back seasons recently and mostly being very inconsistent as a whole. Don't expect them to terrorize the NFC South and the NFL in general with their rushing attack like they did last year. Opponents have had the entire off season to shuffle their rosters and figure out how to slow down their rushing numbers this year.

 

And don't go assuming DeAngelo will score 12-15 TD's like it's nothing. Those are top tier numbers for RB's so don't take those acheivements for granted. I see more like 8-12 total TD's with Jonathan Stewart eating a little bit more into DeAngelo's fantasy numbers.

I am the official DWill nuthugger since last pre-season. DWill is the real deal, what you call gulping kool-aid, I call recognizing talent. He will get his 12-15 TDs this season and prove all the doubters wrong. Don't wait until 2011 to finally put DWill in your top 5 because then it will be too late.

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I am the official DWill nuthugger since last pre-season. DWill is the real deal, what you call gulping kool-aid, I call recognizing talent. He will get his 12-15 TDs this season and prove all the doubters wrong. Don't wait until 2011 to finally put DWill in your top 5 because then it will be too late.

Wow that post was awesome!! Coming from a DWill nuthugger since his college days, I can second that! This kid hits the hole so fast, and runs so hard. There is just no way he is going to fail, barring injury.

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