MJD

[Big Ernie McCracken]

I just read a print article in which MJD was interviewed. He said he was preparing for a 400+ carry season, but he envisions about 280 carries and 75 catches for the upcoming campaign.

[Bronco Billy]

That would make for some interesting speculation. He's talking about a 42% increase in his rushing workload from last year, and a 37% increase in his overall workload. When his rushing workload increased last year by 18% over his previous 2 years' average, his rushing production dropped by 18%, and the overall workload increase last year by 24% resulted in his being 12% less productive over his previous 2 years.

 

That would lead to some speculation that he might wear down when he gets too much work - and that's not an unreasonable assumption given his size. That being the case, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a further drop in productivity if his workload does increase to where he is projecting it, meaning based upon Jones-Drew's prediction that we may be looking at numbers like this:

 

280 carries, 1090 rushing yds, 14 TDs

75 catches, 600 yds, 3 TDs

 

That's a damn fine year if he can hold up and would justify putting him at RB2 - and that's the caveat. If he is showing less productivity, it makes you wonder: 1) If he can hold up and stay healthy given his size with that kind of work load, knowing that his production indicates that fatigue starts becoming a factor when he starts getting additional work, or 2) If the JAX coaching staff doesn't recognize his drop in production and uses someone like a Jennings to significantly restrict his workload - especially since Jennings seems to be impressing in OTAs so far.

 

Either of those scenarios smells like risk to me, and would make me move him down a bit in RB rankings. RB2 just seems like it is a bit beyond him. I'd probably feel comfortable dropping him to about RB6/RB7 territory, meaning there isn't a chance in hell he'd end up on a team I was drafting.

[NAUgrad]

Good assessment BB, but I'm thinking that last year may have been sort of a fluke year for Jacksonville as a whole, thus causing ff production from all Jacksonville players to drop. It certainly could be that a dramatic increase in workload could lead to trouble, but it could also lead to Turner like production from last year. I still see MJD as a top 3 back this year.

[Bronco Billy]

I still see MJD as a top 3 back this year.

 

His projected numbers, even with a productivity drop, would indicate that - if you are willing to overlook the potential risks. With RB1/RB2 I'm not sure that's something I'd easily dismiss. Of course, we'll never know until the season progresses whether the risks are real or not - all we can do is evaluate indicators at this point, so there is going to be some I-told-you-so opportunity from one of the two sides.

Edited July 9, 2009 by Bronco Billy

[MikesVikes]

MJD has the same risks that MBIII had last year.

[Ed Hoyle]

I think MJD will have a decent year. Gerrard has put in some work to be more effective and Holt can draw some attention from the front. This will open up things for MJD. He's a powder keg to go the distance at any time running or receiving.

 

That said, he has been very productive in a 1/2 time role. It is a valid consideration to speculate if he can have a HUGE year with more playing time. If all factors fall in the right places he'll be a top RB. But, if his durability becomes an issue, he's not much better than a flex player.

 

Many people forget that Greg Jones was supposed to be "The Guy" when he was drafted, but blew his knee out. MJD could be on the field for the drive, but taken out at the goal line or short yardage. In that case, he becomes the Fred Taylor of 2 years ago and Jones becomes the new MJD. Jennings could also fill in that role.

 

As others have said, no one will know for sure until the season starts. It is just difficult to predict a guy having a "blowout" season based on projections. MJD could be this year's DeAngelo Williams, Priest Holmes, or Willie Parker....stashed on a FF roster as a flex player until they get the chance to shine.

 

I wish him luck, but am just skeptical on his endurance and if he'll be able to handle it. Time will tell.

[Seahawks21]

Where were all of you a few months ago when I made these same points and everybody looked at me like I was ludacris? You simply can't take a part time player and multiply his production by his expected raise in playing time. It doesn't work that way. I'd probably take him in the top 5, but no chance I'd take him in the top 3.

[peepinmofo]

Where were all of you a few months ago when I made these same points and everybody looked at me like I was ludacris? You simply can't take a part time player and multiply his production by his expected raise in playing time. It doesn't work that way. I'd probably take him in the top 5, but no chance I'd take him in the top 3.

 

I bet Michael Turner disagrees with you.

[NAUgrad]

I think MJD will have a decent year. Gerrard has put in some work to be more effective and Holt can draw some attention from the front. This will open up things for MJD. He's a powder keg to go the distance at any time running or receiving.

 

That said, he has been very productive in a 1/2 time role. It is a valid consideration to speculate if he can have a HUGE year with more playing time. If all factors fall in the right places he'll be a top RB. But, if his durability becomes an issue, he's not much better than a flex player.

 

Many people forget that Greg Jones was supposed to be "The Guy" when he was drafted, but blew his knee out. MJD could be on the field for the drive, but taken out at the goal line or short yardage. In that case, he becomes the Fred Taylor of 2 years ago and Jones becomes the new MJD. Jennings could also fill in that role.

 

As others have said, no one will know for sure until the season starts. It is just difficult to predict a guy having a "blowout" season based on projections. MJD could be this year's DeAngelo Williams, Priest Holmes, or Willie Parker....stashed on a FF roster as a flex player until they get the chance to shine.

 

I wish him luck, but am just skeptical on his endurance and if he'll be able to handle it. Time will tell.

I believe Jones blew out his knew while still in college. I don't think he was ever really drafted to be the guy in Jacksonville.

[The Irish Doggy]

Have to agree here, he's going to be the best #1 RB ever!

[rebdog]

with what they've done to the O-line, i only see good things this year. last year was devastation on the O-line.

...and given how effective MJD's been at the goal-line, i don't think he'll lose a ton of carries in those situations. plus the fact he's a dual threat makes him even more valuable in those spots.

[Donutrun Jellies]

I'd probably take him in the top 5, but no chance I'd take him in the top 3.

I took him at 4. I think that's about right.

 

Credible projections have him at 1950 combined yards and 14 tds. Yahoo (??) projections have him at 2002 combined yards and 14 TDs ... I'd take 1650 combined yards and 15 TDs (we'll give him the bye week off). Clearly there's a certain amount of risk - if he stands too close to plaxico at a club and gets shot in the leg, he'll have less. If one of his as-of-yet-disappointing backups emerges as the next Priest Holmes, he'll have less. Compared with trying to figure out the Carolina carry distribution, or which running back in New England will even see the field, or whether LT2 has another 2000 yards in him, MJD is a fairly straightforward pick. At about the 4th spot ...

[Seahawks21]

I bet Michael Turner disagrees with you.

As soon as I can come up with a way to refute this argument I'll let ya know

[Capt. Stanky]

I kinda have a man crush on Mighty Mouse. Most of you here know this. MJD was the #3 RB (total pts) in a standard PPR league last year. The fact that he's the starter and should see quite a few more carries should make him more consistent. Consistency has been one of the only knocks on him to this point. If anything, Jax has allot more bodies on the O-line. They will be much better aquipped to handle injuries. Holt should also help a very green receiving group. I personally think that Jax will be competitive next year. They'd really packed it in at the end of last year.

 

Bottom line, I just think the guy has allot of talent. Talent + Opportunity = Fantasy Gold

 

I have him #1 on my big board, but that's just me.

Edited July 10, 2009 by Capt. Stanky

[Capt. Stanky]

Wow, 13 posts before I responded to an MJD thread? That has to be somekind of record.

[FishFreak]

MJD is the complete package period. He offers everything you could want out of a RB1. He's a dual threat in the passing game and rushing, scores a ton of TD's and also breaks off long scores. He's the focal point of the offense and the O-line is much improved this year in Jacksonville. What more could you really ask for from a top pick? The real question is how high are owners willing to draft him? All this nonsense about will he wear down and can he carry the full load can basically be also asked of any other top RB. He's good for at least 1800 total yards and 12 TD's. 2200 total yards and 16 TD's wouldn't surprise me at all.

[keggerz]

just something for people to chew on

 

Rushing Attempts 1 thru 10

2008 137 attempts, 621 yards, 4.5 ypc, 10 TDs, 37 1st downs

2007 155 attempts 673 yards. 4.3 ypc, 9 TDs, 45 1st downs

2006 118 attempts, 757 yards, 6.4 ypc, 11 TDs, 38 1st downs

 

Rushing Attempts 11 thru 20

2008 55 attempts, 193 yards, 3.5 ypc, 2 TDs , 9 1st downs

2007 26 attempts, 143 yards. 5.5 ypc, 1 TDs, 5 1st downs

2006 42 attempts, 171 yards. 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs, 7 1st downs

 

 

Rushing Attempts 21 thru 30

2008 5 attempts, 10 yards, 2.0 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs

2007 NONE in 2007

2006 6 attempts, 13 yards, 2.2 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs

 

Now lets look a bit deeper at the numbers:

2008:

carries 1-10 converted 27% of carries into 1st downs

carries 11-20 converted 16% of carries into 1st downs

carries 21-30 converted 20% of carries into 1st downs(5 carries is really to small a sample size)

 

2007:

carries 1-10 converted 29% of carries into 1st downs

carries 11-20 converted 19% of carries into 1st downs

carries 21-30 N/A NO CARRIES

 

2006:

carries 1-10 converted 32% of carries into 1st downs

carries 11-20 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs

carries 21-30 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs(again only 6 carries and that really is to small a sample size)

[Bronco Billy]

All this nonsense about will he wear down and can he carry the full load can basically be also asked of any other top RB.

 

Why exactly is his stamina question nonsense? Jones-Drew is 5'-8" and 200 lbs dripping wet. Look at the other top RBs:

 

AD 6'-2" 220 lbs (and hoping to play at 225 lbs this year)

Jackson 6'-3" 229 lbs

Forte 6'-1" 221 lbs

Turner 5'-10" 237 lbs

 

There's advantage in mass in the NFL when a RB has to carry a full load. Guys just wear down with all the collisions, and simple physics points directly at the advantage that heavier RBs have in those collisions. There's a reason why Peterson wants to play at 10 lbs heavier than he was last season - you think he's doing that so he can look good filling out the seat of his pants more?

 

There is also the evidence I posted about Jones-Drew's production decreasing as his work load increased last season. That's a legitimate concern, especially given his smallish stature.

 

That isn't to say Jones-Drew can't have a great year. He obviously can, and he is clearly talented enough to do so. But there is a concern with his size when he has to carry a full load. To call that concern nonsense is nonsense.

[Square]

Why exactly is his stamina question nonsense? Jones-Drew is 5'-8" and 200 lbs dripping wet. Look at the other top RBs:

 

AD 6'-2" 220 lbs (and hoping to play at 225 lbs this year)

Jackson 6'-3" 229 lbs

Forte 6'-1" 221 lbs

Turner 5'-10" 237 lbs

 

There's advantage in mass in the NFL when a RB has to carry a full load. Guys just wear down with all the collisions, and simple physics points directly at the advantage that heavier RBs have in those collisions. There's a reason why Peterson wants to play at 10 lbs heavier than he was last season - you think he's doing that so he can look good filling out the seat of his pants more?

 

There is also the evidence I posted about Jones-Drew's production decreasing as his work load increased last season. That's a legitimate concern, especially given his smallish stature.

 

That isn't to say Jones-Drew can't have a great year. He obviously can, and he is clearly talented enough to do so. But there is a concern with his size when he has to carry a full load. To call that concern nonsense is nonsense.

I'd contend that his running style, shorter height, and vision also keeps him from getting hit as square as some of the other backs. Jacobs has to be the size he is to run that straight up and down (and he still has injuries often). MJD being low to the ground and having great vision usually keeps him from getting lit up. I don't get to see a ton of Jax games but I really haven't seen MJD get laid out (decleated) yet. That being said, I don't know if MJD is being drafted so high (top 3) because he is an absolute stud or just because his position seems to have less question marks than everyone else. I think a few people think he is stud-tacular but a lot of the rest of us just think the floor is a lot higher (less risk) than many other picks. Sure, I wish he'd still be there at 5-7, but I can't really blame people for going 2, 3 on him.

[FishFreak]

Why exactly is his stamina question nonsense? Jones-Drew is 5'-8" and 200 lbs dripping wet. Look at the other top RBs:

 

AD 6'-2" 220 lbs (and hoping to play at 225 lbs this year)

Jackson 6'-3" 229 lbs

Forte 6'-1" 221 lbs

Turner 5'-10" 237 lbs

 

There's advantage in mass in the NFL when a RB has to carry a full load. Guys just wear down with all the collisions, and simple physics points directly at the advantage that heavier RBs have in those collisions. There's a reason why Peterson wants to play at 10 lbs heavier than he was last season - you think he's doing that so he can look good filling out the seat of his pants more?

 

There is also the evidence I posted about Jones-Drew's production decreasing as his work load increased last season. That's a legitimate concern, especially given his smallish stature.

 

That isn't to say Jones-Drew can't have a great year. He obviously can, and he is clearly talented enough to do so. But there is a concern with his size when he has to carry a full load. To call that concern nonsense is nonsense.

 

I'll give you props for backing up your POV's but stats don't always tell the whole story. Steven Jackson and Brandon Jacobs are tanks yet they have a history of getting nicked up. Warrick Dunn was what 180 lbs. that played RB for 10 years in the NFL without any serious injuries so you can't just equate size to being more durable. Sure a bigger back is probably more likely to sustain more hits but everyone is built differently.

 

MJD has supposedly added more weight to his frame this year but I personally think he has a great unique build to handle the load. At 5'8 The guy is hard to hit and like a bowling ball with a very low center of gravity unlike AD, Jackson and Jacobs who tend to run very straight up.

 

So like I said IMO all this stamina, durability nonsense floting around MJD is nonsense. I could say the same thing about all four guys you've listed above:

 

AD- Got nicked up in college a bit and missed some time his rookie year in the NFL

SJ- Consistently has missed a few games almost every year

Forte- Proved to carry a tremendous load for ONE year. Let's see if he can do it again. Personally, I think he's in line for less touches or will eventually get nicked up.

Turner- Same as Forte above.

 

So like I said, almost every RB out there could be questioned on durability. The fact of the matter is there are fewer and fewer every down work horses in the NFL. You just have to go out and draft a deep roster if possible and worry aboout injuries when/if they occur. MJD is no more prone to injury than anyone else.....it can happen to the best of em!

[Bronco Billy]

MJD is no more prone to injury than anyone else.....it can happen to the best of em!

 

That wasn't your previous position. Your previous position was that concerns for MJD's stamina issues were nonsense. What you did show is that a greater majority of the RBs have concerns regarding injury - which is a different issue entirely, and does not disprove in any way the concerns regarding Jones-Drew's size in regard to the burden of carrying a heavier workload.

 

Let me make it simpler: Do you think that Jones-Drew's documented reduction in productivity last year is related in any way to his increased workload?

[Big Ernie McCracken]

Why exactly is his stamina question nonsense? Jones-Drew is 5'-8" and 200 lbs dripping wet. Look at the other top RBs:

 

AD 6'-2" 220 lbs (and hoping to play at 225 lbs this year)

Jackson 6'-3" 229 lbs

Forte 6'-1" 221 lbs

Turner 5'-10" 237 lbs

 

or these

Emmitt Smith - 216lbs.

Marshall Faulk - 211lbs.

Curtis Martin - 210lbs.

Barry Sanders - 200lbs.

 

As far as MJD's height limitations, I would imagine his lower center of gravity (see Barry Sanders) is part of his success. Football is a game of leverage and balance as well as strength and speed.

[FishFreak]

That wasn't your previous position. Your previous position was that concerns for MJD's stamina issues were nonsense. What you did show is that a greater majority of the RBs have concerns regarding injury - which is a different issue entirely, and does not disprove in any way the concerns regarding Jones-Drew's size in regard to the burden of carrying a heavier workload.

 

Let me make it simpler: Do you think that Jones-Drew's documented reduction in productivity last year is related in any way to his increased workload?

 

Here's what I've previously stated in post #17-

 

All this nonsense about will he wear down and can he carry the full load can basically be also asked of any other top RB.

 

 

Nothing has changed so why are you stating otherwise? If you want to make this discussion specifically about stamina then go ahead. That's all pure speculation and quite frankly subjective. Stamina, wear and tear, durability, carrying a heavier workload, etc. - they are all related so let's not split hairs here. There are many reasons for one seemingly slowing down or producing less at any given time during the season. Injuries, Opponents, O-line play, play calling, Poor Jacksonville D......I could go on and on. Like I said there is also a much bigger picture beyond just providing a bunch of stats to draw a conclusion to support your points.

[Bronco Billy]

Here's what I've previously stated in post #17-

 

All this nonsense about will he wear down and can he carry the full load can basically be also asked of any other top RB.

 

 

Nothing has changed so why are you stating otherwise? If you want to make this discussion specifically about stamina then go ahead. That's all pure speculation and quite frankly subjective. Stamina, wear and tear, durability, carrying a heavier workload, etc. - they are all related so let's not split hairs here. There are many reasons for one seemingly slowing down or producing less at any given time during the season. Injuries, Opponents, O-line play, play calling, Poor Jacksonville D......I could go on and on. Like I said there is also a much bigger picture beyond just providing a bunch of stats to draw a conclusion to support your points.

 

So your position is that the differential in reduced production is completely independent of his increased workload last year?

 

The other guys I've listed have established that they can be extremely productive as a full time featured RB. Jones-Drew has not - simply because he has not had the opportunity. But we did get a clue last year when his workload went up, if you accept that his reduced production was tied to his increased workload. You appear not to accept the numbers, and I'm curious why you don't.

[Capt. Stanky]

Here are some tidbits from a post I started at the end of last FF season:

 

Here's some analysis I did for the games that FTaylor and GJones were hurt:

 

MJD's first attempt at being "The Man":

 

Vs GB

12 carries for 48 & TD

4 rec for 22 & TD

 

He didn't get allot of carries, but the 2 TD's made up for it. I still want to see him have a game of at least 25 touches before the season's over. It would just make me feel better going into next year.

 

MJD's 2nd game getting all the carries:

 

Vs Indy

20 car. for 91

7 rec for 71

 

Roughly 23 pts in a PPR league, without a TD. This is what I wanted to see. MJD getting over 25 touches in a game. I understand that people are concerned about his consistency. Trust me, if he's getting at least 70% of the action at RB, he will be far more consistent going forward.

 

MJD's 3rd game getting all the carries

 

Vs Balt

23 car. for 78

1 rec for 10 yds

 

I'd be curious to see how many other backs had 78 rushing yards against Balt last year.

 

All in all, I think MJD did pretty good in his audition with the majority of the carries at the end of last year. Isn't that really the only thing we can go by, since he's never been asked to carry the load until now?

 

If you want to check out the entire thread it's here

 

Also keep in mind how bad the rest of the Jags were playing at the end of last year and it makes these numbers look even more impressive.

Edited July 10, 2009 by Capt. Stanky