MJD

[PaulOttCarruth]

Addai and MJD aren't really being compared above, are they?

 

Not comparing the two players. Comparing the debate about the two players, which is exactly the same.

 

I certainly think there's a lesson to be learned from Addai as it pertains to MJD. You can't simply take a RB's stats as a backup and extrapolate them over a full season when making their projection.

[FishFreak]

QUOTE (FishFreak @ 7/10/09 6:00pm)

Seriously, how many backs can handle 400-480 touches over a 16 game schedule? NOT MANY, IF NOT NONE so let's not get crazy. If MJD gets 300-350 total touches for the year he will put up sick stats. He was already fantasy gold getting 200-250 touches per year in his shared role with Fred Taylor in years past. Like Capt. Stanky and I have been saying all along...what's not to like about this guy?

 

 

This felt like a familiar conversation. Felt eerily similar to the great Joseph Addai debate circa 2007. So I looked it up . . .

 

Same debaters. Same debate.

 

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...76&hl=addai

 

 

This is what you had to say, FishFreak.

 

 

QUOTE

Last year Addai averaged 4.8 per rush. Let's say he does wear down a bit to a very respectable 4.3 per rush. Assuming he has a bigger workload of say 280 carries, that still gets him over 1,200 yds. Now suppose he keeps a high YPC and and gets over 300 rushing attempts, you're looking at possibly 1,400 rushing yards. Factor in more catches and receiving yards and you have a stud. He's also money for 10+ TD's. Like I said before, expect Edge numbers.

 

He's in the Colts O with a nobody RB backing him up. What's not to like?

 

 

So the question is "is there a lesson to be learned from Addai's" value spiking to an ADP of 5 in 2007?

 

I'm more in the camp of taking caution with MJD this year. But I'm open to the idea of MJD following DWill rather than Addai.

 

 

 

I'm not really sure what you're trying to say here. Addai had a fine year in 2007 and I stand by my words. On the other hand as Irish said, you really can't compare Addai to MJD. They are different guys and it's a different year. What's your point? Am I missing something?

Edited July 15, 2009 by FishFreak

[FishFreak]

Not comparing the two players. Comparing the debate about the two players, which is exactly the same.

 

I certainly think there's a lesson to be learned from Addai as it pertains to MJD. You can't simply take a RB's stats as a backup and extrapolate them over a full season when making their projection.

 

Sure you can- Tiki Barber, Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams are three good recent examples that quickly come to my mind.

[PaulOttCarruth]

Sure you can- Tiki Barber, Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams are three good recent examples that quickly come to my mind.

 

It happens. That's why I'm not dismissing MJD.

 

However, I like to sniff the kool-aid before drinking it. Swirl it around a few times. Make damn sure it isn't a cup full of piss before I drink it.

 

You list the success stories. There are certainly as many (likely more) examples of backups disappointing when thrust into the starting role than exceeding expectations. Look at the 2007 fantasy draft alone: Addai, Maroney and Benson all choked as first-year starters.

[Capt. Stanky]

It happens. That's why I'm not dismissing MJD.

 

However, I like to sniff the kool-aid before drinking it. Swirl it around a few times. Make damn sure it isn't a cup full of piss before I drink it.

 

You list the success stories. There are certainly as many (likely more) examples of backups disappointing when thrust into the starting role than exceeding expectations. Look at the 2007 fantasy draft alone: Addai, Maroney and Benson all choked as first-year starters.

 

Addai did anything but choke in his first year as the starter. It was his second that he pissed off allot of FF owners, me included

Edited July 15, 2009 by Capt. Stanky

[Square]

It happens. That's why I'm not dismissing MJD.

 

However, I like to sniff the kool-aid before drinking it. Swirl it around a few times. Make damn sure it isn't a cup full of piss before I drink it.

 

You list the success stories. There are certainly as many (likely more) examples of backups disappointing when thrust into the starting role than exceeding expectations. Look at the 2007 fantasy draft alone: Addai, Maroney and Benson all choked as first-year starters.

I'm all for checking the Kool-aid, but can't you do this with any FF debate? Most players don't become great and there are always exceptions. I don't think MJD is less proven than some of the others. I'd liken him a bit more to Barber last year than Addai.

[The Irish Doggy]

Every case is different. You blend talent, size, statistical indicators, gut feeling, whatever and go with it.

 

Addai, Turner, D Williams, MJD, etc. Each one is a different blend of factors. No one factor seems to trump all others IMO.

[The Irish Doggy]

Addai did anything but choke in his first year as the starter. It was his second that he pissed off allot of FF owners, me included

 

 

Well, the fist half of 2007 was great. The second half ... not so much.

Edited July 15, 2009 by The Irish Doggy

[PaulOttCarruth]

Addai did anything but choke in his first year as the starter. It was his second that he pissed off allot of FF owners, me included

 

Rhodes was there in 2006. Addai was a rookie and played all 16 games but started zero.

 

Rhodes dealt in the offseason and Addai handed the reigns (and the #5 fantasy ADP) in 2007.

[FishFreak]

It happens. That's why I'm not dismissing MJD.

 

However, I like to sniff the kool-aid before drinking it. Swirl it around a few times. Make damn sure it isn't a cup full of piss before I drink it.

 

You list the success stories. There are certainly as many (likely more) examples of backups disappointing when thrust into the starting role than exceeding expectations. Look at the 2007 fantasy draft alone: Addai, Maroney and Benson all choked as first-year starters.

 

Maroney and Benson are poor examples. They both haven't done much of anything to date in their NFL careers. MJD on the other hand is a TD machine and a solid stud who has produced consistently in a big way taking on more than just a part time role for the Jags. You're making poor comparisons to an otherwise stale argument. MJD is a proven commodity and will simply exceed his already solid career numbers with more touches this year. I can't worry myself over whether or not he will get hurt or break down. Like I keep saying and saying, that could be the case for every NFL RB.

[Capt. Stanky]

Rhodes was there in 2006. Addai was a rookie and played all 16 games but started zero.

 

Rhodes dealt in the offseason and Addai handed the reigns (and the #5 fantasy ADP) in 2007.

 

Exactly, and in 2007 Addai finished as the #4 RB in total pts (PPR Scoring). 2008 is the year that he screwed the pooch.

[Big Ernie McCracken]

You list the success stories. There are certainly as many (likely more) examples of backups disappointing when thrust into the starting role than exceeding expectations. Look at the 2007 fantasy draft alone: Addai, Maroney and Benson all choked as first-year starters.

 

Here's a few more backups who excelled as starters. Brian Westbrook, Shaun Alexander, Clinton Portis, and Priest Holmes.

Edited July 16, 2009 by Big Ernie McCracken

[The Irish Doggy]

Should we really consider MJD a backup when he out-produced Taylor every year?

[Capt. Stanky]

Should we really consider MJD a backup when he out-produced Taylor every year?

 

I hate trying to compare RB's situations. Too many factors related to the team itself has to make each situation drastically different. If we're going to compare situations I think that the MBarber situation is the closest. The main difference is that MJD isn't as physical a player as MBIII. He's more elusive as well, so he's not going to take the pounding that Barber takes. Dallas is a stronger team than Jax though. Some of us will just have to agree to disagree. The regular season doesn't lie.

[Asskickas]

wow, people really stayed away from the above stats like the plague....let me re-organize them a bit for some of you:

carries 1-10

2006 118 carries 6.4YPC 11TDs

2008 137 carries 4.5YPC 10TDs

2007 155 carries 4.3YPC 9TDs

for those that dont see the correlation as the carries increase the YPC decreases and TDs also decreased

carries 11-20

2007 26 carries 5.5YPC 1TD

2006 42 carries 4.1YPC 2TDs

2008 55 carries 3.5YPC 2TDs

 

again, as his carries increased his YPC went south...his TD to carry ratio did remain pretty much the same

 

there really isnt a need to look at 21+ carries because there aren't enough to really use...but then again maybe that there are so few that it does say something

 

 

and now lets take a look at effectiveness (converting carries to 1st downs)

 

carries 1-20

2006 28%

2007 27%

2008 24%

 

Looks like the rigors of an NFL career are starting to show on MJD....even if the %'s dont seem like a big deal to some of you they do show that has his carries increase his production decreases....the reason I lumped carries 1-20 together for the final stat was to see how his production has progressed because you dont just erase carries and start from scratch....this might be the year that MJD shows an increase in his effectiveness but then again it might not...or maybe the Jags will limit his touches to get the most out of him.

 

my only point is that people need to look at how MJDs effectiveness does spiral downward as his workload has increased....I am not saying he will be a bust but I am saying that there is enough statistical evidence to show pause...

 

 

did you really just link to an MJD thread that had ZERO posts by me in it you should be ashamed

This is interesting data. Let me preface my post by pointing out that last season was the worst for the TEAM since MJD was drafted and he still ended up with 1389 total yds and 62 receptions in a timeshare for most of the season where they finished 5-11.

 

One thing that's over looked is the big play ability of this guy. One big play can change a 3.5ypc average to 5.0. His ability to catch passes can also mess up his ypc rushing average as it did last season for at least 1 game where he had 9 rec for 113 yds but 3 carries for 4 yds. When you have a versatile back like this owning the full workload, only good things can happen unless he gets hurt. With the changes made in the off-season I don't see how his numbers could get worse than last year's or how his production could get worse with more workload. There has been comaprison to Addai and others who failed to produce as full workload starters and I agree that if MJD gets hurt like Addai did in his 2nd year as the starter, then he'll probably not be as effective. However, If he can stay healthy like Turner did then the sky's the limit especially in a PPR league. (I admit that I drafted him #3 overall in a PPR league this year and I just hope for good health. Ironically I drafted Addai #3 overall last year Can lightning strike me twice?)

 

Getting Holt was a smart move for the team but Garrard will still use MJD a lot. Will he get 90 receptions like Sjax did a couple years ago? Probably not but I think 75-80 receptions for a back would be gravy and all he would need is 13-18 more added to last years total. I punched some numbers to project what I think will be close to his 09-10 stats. I removed the 2 rushing games last year where he averaged 1.4 and 1.3 ypc respectively. I don't think he'll get or should get 25 carries a game but I do think he could average 25 touches or 17-20 carries and 3-5 rec per game. If this happens and he gets a conservative 18 carries a game@ 4.3ypc he'll end 2009-10 season with around 1200 and 15 tds 675 receiving yds and 4 tds. 1875 total yds and 19 tds is what everyone wants from a top 3 pick I think.