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VBD vs. ADP Comparison


The Wolf
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So, taking BB and BC's advice in another thread, I decided to FINALLY run a VBD analysis. Since I cannot project stats for the life of me, I simply used The Huddle's projections.

 

Needless to say, it was a REAL eye-opener. This may have been the single best thing I have ever done with regard to FF.

 

NOW...I want to take it a step further and compare the VBD ranking (1 - 360) with the players' ADP (1 - 360) to see who is going higher than they should, who is undervalued, etc. For example, if a player has the 4th best ADP ranking but is the 23rd best in VBD, I know he is going waaay to high. Flip the numbers, and I know I have a real bargain on my hands. My local is an auction, but I should still see value in this exercise as my fellow owners really do drink the same Kool Aid that other FFers do.

 

Does anyone do this? If so, is there anything I am missing in this process?

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I'm sorry to hear that...

 

 

why?

 

I won't speak for Mystykoekaki but when I've used VBD in the past I used the Huddle projections plus projections from two other sites. My thought being that the more 'experts' in the pool for the projections, the better.

 

However, I did weight The Huddle's at 50% and only 25% for each of the others.

Edited by Puddy
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personally, I think ADP would be a more consistent, broad-based indicator of fantasy value. VBD is obviously only as good as the projections you put in....but it CAN be very helpful as far as figuring out the relative value of positions (RB vs WR vs QB, etc) if you've got any sort of atypical league setup as far as scoring, lineups and number of teams.

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I do this quite a bit.

 

I do the value analysis to see where I feel the player values are going to be.

 

I look at ADP to see where the players are going in other drafts.

 

I look at the tendencies of the owners in my league to see where there may be spots I can exploit (ie, I have 4-5 of a position similarly ranked albeit of slightly higher value than say a groupin of 1-2 players at another position. I feel confident that 1 of the higher valued group of 4-5 players will be there at my next pick, so I'll draft the lower valued player first, then hope to get one of the slightly more high value guys with my next pick)

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I do this quite a bit.

 

I do the value analysis to see where I feel the player values are going to be.

 

I look at ADP to see where the players are going in other drafts.

 

I look at the tendencies of the owners in my league to see where there may be spots I can exploit (ie, I have 4-5 of a position similarly ranked albeit of slightly higher value than say a groupin of 1-2 players at another position. I feel confident that 1 of the higher valued group of 4-5 players will be there at my next pick, so I'll draft the lower valued player first, then hope to get one of the slightly more high value guys with my next pick)

 

 

I use the Huddle projections, and I use ADP and VBD both as tools.

 

1) Where is a guy typically going

2) based on VBD with these projections, is that guy a reach versus someone else that would be a better choice

3) do I believe it.

 

3 is always the deciding factor in who I draft. The other stuff is just some analytical assistance in taking stock of what other people think.

 

EDIT: Even the site admins here do some version of this. They don't draft blindly based on their own predictions and analysis. Projections are based on current situation, past performance, and statistical history for the player, team, and position. They will always be flawed, but they are a good tool. Value and risk assessment are also good tools.

Edited by Caveman_Nick
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I do this quite a bit.

 

I do the value analysis to see where I feel the player values are going to be.

 

I look at ADP to see where the players are going in other drafts.

 

I look at the tendencies of the owners in my league to see where there may be spots I can exploit (ie, I have 4-5 of a position similarly ranked albeit of slightly higher value than say a groupin of 1-2 players at another position. I feel confident that 1 of the higher valued group of 4-5 players will be there at my next pick, so I'll draft the lower valued player first, then hope to get one of the slightly more high value guys with my next pick)

 

Pretty much sums up my draft strategy.

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I use the Huddle projections, and I use ADP and VBD both as tools.

 

1) Where is a guy typically going

2) based on VBD with these projections, is that guy a reach versus someone else that would be a better choice

3) do I believe it.

 

3 is always the deciding factor in who I draft. The other stuff is just some analytical assistance in taking stock of what other people think.

 

EDIT: Even the site admins here do some version of this. They don't draft blindly based on their own predictions and analysis. Projections are based on current situation, past performance, and statistical history for the player, team, and position. They will always be flawed, but they are a good tool. Value and risk assessment are also good tools.

 

Preachin to the choir...well written there.

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Honestly, I don't care for them. Last year was the first year in two years I used somebody else's rankings, and I easily won.

If you easily won using someone else's rankings then that doesn't say much about your league or your ability to create your own rankings. What's the fun in FF if you have to use someone else's rankings? I will never understand that.

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Honestly, I don't care for them. Last year was the first year in two years I used somebody else's rankings, and I easily won.

 

I call BS here. If DMD had a crappy track record with his own, highly visible teams it'd be different. But that ain't the case. And I'd seriously doubt you can show me some other FF site that won leagues left and right last year. I'm willing to be proven wrong, but I think you're full of it. :wacko:

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I should still see value in this exercise

You would think.

 

Does anyone do this?
Basically no. All "VBD" gets down to is knowing that you should generally compare players within a position, not a QB vs WR etc. Most of it beyond that, including all the detailed stat projections ad nauseum, are a hideous waste of time.

 

And I don't bother much with "ADP" because most of the people in my league don't follow that either, so it won't impact our draft....ie why do I care if the popular notion out in FF Land is player X is the 3d best RB?

 

As for ripping on DMD, just lame trolling (gee there's something clever and new).

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You would think.

 

Basically no. All "VBD" gets down to is knowing that you should generally compare players within a position, not a QB vs WR etc. Most of it beyond that, including all the detailed stat projections ad nauseum, are a hideous waste of time.

 

And I don't bother much with "ADP" because most of the people in my league don't follow that either, so it won't impact our draft....ie why do I care if the popular notion out in FF Land is player X is the 3d best RB?

 

As for ripping on DMD, just lame trolling (gee there's something clever and new).

 

Well, lame trolling or not I called him a liar. He can put up or shut up.

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Honestly, I don't care for them. Last year was the first year in two years I used somebody else's rankings, and I easily won.

 

:wacko:

 

You don't create your own rankings or projections, and you have the balls to rip someone who does and puts them in front of the whole world to see?

 

Does someone else enter your lineup for you every week too?

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