FishFreak Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 I'm looking at projections on various sites and I'm noticing Matt Ryan is projected lower than I think he should be. The kid had a 61% completion percentage last year and got a great new toy in Tony G. How can he not throw for 3,600 yards and 25 TD's in that offense if he doesn't get injured? He's improving and you know the Falcons will open up the offense even more this year. I just can't see many teams slowing down an offense with weapons like Turner, R. White, Tony G. and Ryan leading the way. To me, Ryan is a lock to have a good year and more importantly a safe fantasy pick in the middle rounds. He should be projected much higher than he is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Company of Heroes Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 I'm looking at projections on various sites and I'm noticing Matt Ryan is projected lower than I think he should be. The kid had a 61% completion percentage last year and got a great new toy in Tony G. How can he not throw for 3,600 yards and 25 TD's in that offense if he doesn't get injured? He's improving and you know the Falcons will open up the offense even more this year. I just can't see many teams slowing down an offense with weapons like Turner, R. White, Tony G. and Ryan leading the way. To me, Ryan is a lock to have a good year and more importantly a safe fantasy pick in the middle rounds. He should be projected much higher than he is. This is interesting to me as well. I think the cause for concern is the tougher schedule, which could also force the Falcons to need to throw more. In addition, teams have studied tape on him and will be more prepared this year. I think more than anything it appears to be a deep year for QBs when Ryan, Schaub, and Palmer are going to be available as decent QB options in the middle rounds. I just don't know if I take Ryan before Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Warner, Romo, or McNabb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Ernie McCracken Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 Atlanta projects out to one of the ten toughest schedules for the pass. I think Ryan is a high end QB2 regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 I'm looking at projections on various sites and I'm noticing Matt Ryan is projected lower than I think he should be. The kid had a 61% completion percentage last year and got a great new toy in Tony G. How can he not throw for 3,600 yards and 25 TD's in that offense if he doesn't get injured? Safe and potential value pick? Sure. He's projected as a QB2, with borderline QB1 potential. Don't see how that makes him anything other than safe. He threw for 3450/16/11 last season, and the kind of numbers aren't completely out of the realm to achieve, but you're forgetting they have a pretty significant running game which will lower his passing TD ceiling. 3800 and 20 is roughly Matt Schaub numbers anyway, and a very reasonable improvement for Ryan from Year 1 to Year 2. At the extreme very best you're looking at a back end QB1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Company of Heroes Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 I guess I'm now curious for those who have Ryan rated as a high-end QB2 who are the QBs immediately in front of him. I definitely consider him a QB1 except perhaps in 8 team league. QBs clearly on a higher tier would be: Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Warner, Romo, and McNabb. That leaves guys like Palmer, Cutler, Schaub, which all seem to have at least similar if not worse risk than Ryan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wolf Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 I guess I'm now curious for those who have Ryan rated as a high-end QB2 who are the QBs immediately in front of him. I definitely consider him a QB1 except perhaps in 8 team league. QBs clearly on a higher tier would be: Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Warner, Romo, and McNabb. That leaves guys like Palmer, Cutler, Schaub, which all seem to have at least similar if not worse risk than Ryan. Brett Favre clearly belongs as a QB1. CLEARLY... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishFreak Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 Safe and potential value pick? Sure. He's projected as a QB2, with borderline QB1 potential. Don't see how that makes him anything other than safe. He threw for 3450/16/11 last season, and the kind of numbers aren't completely out of the realm to achieve, but you're forgetting they have a pretty significant running game which will lower his passing TD ceiling. 3800 and 20 is roughly Matt Schaub numbers anyway, and a very reasonable improvement for Ryan from Year 1 to Year 2. At the extreme very best you're looking at a back end QB1. I would have no problem picking Ryan late, making him my QB1 and filling out my roster early in the draft. I'm expecting 3,500-4,000 yards passing and 22-28 Total TD's. That makes him a great value pick. You just see him as a QB2 which I'm hoping everyone else in my other leagues do as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 I would have no problem picking Ryan late, making him my QB1 and filling out my roster early in the draft. I'm expecting 3,500-4,000 yards passing and 22-28 Total TD's. That makes him a great value pick. You just see him as a QB2 which I'm hoping everyone else in my other leagues do as well. Because that's where his value is. If you want to build your team around Ryan at QB, go for it. I'm not going to poopoo the strategy or talk you out of it, because I think he's in that group of six or seven QBs that will end up performing at the back end level starting fantasy QB this season. Nothing wrong with running a guy like that out there if you got the rest of the lineup filled. The projection you're making has some issues, if you ask me, but that's just me. He plays on an offense built around a power rushing attack that would have to significantly curtail for him to put up the kinds of numbers you're calling for. Could it happen? Sure. Tom Brady and Carson Palmer put up similar first-year numbers as starters in the NFL that Ryan did last year, then had darn near MVP quality seasons their second year. I'm not certain I see the same kind of offensive philosophy and personnel in Atlanta as on those teams, so color me a bit more cautious than you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted July 29, 2009 Share Posted July 29, 2009 (edited) "So" undervalued? From that POV, I'm more excited about a guy like Edwards going at 10.12 than Ryan going at 7.4. Edited July 29, 2009 by bushwacked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grogansghost Posted July 29, 2009 Share Posted July 29, 2009 (edited) Atlanta projects out to one of the ten toughest schedules for the pass. I think Ryan is a high end QB2 regardless. Besides ATL facing tougher teams this season, I also read that they were going to be face a lot of teams coming off their BYE week giving defenses two full weeks to prepare. Chi - Dal - Was and Nyg -- all have their bye's the week before facing ATL. I'm not sure what the average is for teams to face a team coming off of its bye week - but it seems that ATL is facing a lot of them. I'm not sure if people were taking the byes into consideration before, but I think ATL's schedule is even tougher than it appears. Edited July 29, 2009 by Grogansghost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Company of Heroes Posted July 29, 2009 Share Posted July 29, 2009 Besides ATL facing tougher teams this season, I also read that they were going to be face a lot of teams coming off their BYE week giving defenses two full weeks to prepare. Chi - Dal - Was and Nyg -- all have their bye's the week before facing ATL. That's good info, thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted July 29, 2009 Share Posted July 29, 2009 I would have no problem picking Ryan late, making him my QB1 and filling out my roster early in the draft. I'm expecting 3,500-4,000 yards passing and 22-28 Total TD's. er the diff between your low and high end there (3500/22 and 4000/28) is huge. And good luck winning your league with a 22 TD QB. I'm sure it happens but don't like the odds. Fine with him as QB2, no way as QB1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Ernie McCracken Posted July 29, 2009 Share Posted July 29, 2009 (edited) er the diff between your low and high end there (3500/22 and 4000/28) is huge. And good luck winning your league with a 22 TD QB. I'm sure it happens but don't like the odds. Fine with him as QB2, no way as QB1. I'm not likely to take the opinion of some dope who bought into "the Magic Jack" and then is actually surprised it doesn't work you sucker http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...p;#entry2884131 Edited July 29, 2009 by Big Ernie McCracken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishFreak Posted July 29, 2009 Author Share Posted July 29, 2009 Besides ATL facing tougher teams this season, I also read that they were going to be face a lot of teams coming off their BYE week giving defenses two full weeks to prepare. Chi - Dal - Was and Nyg -- all have their bye's the week before facing ATL. I'm not sure what the average is for teams to face a team coming off of its bye week - but it seems that ATL is facing a lot of them. I'm not sure if people were taking the byes into consideration before, but I think ATL's schedule is even tougher than it appears. SOS is such an over analyzed dynamic of fantasy football. Teams can change over night from year to year so looking at schedules in advance is a tricky proposition. The Chicago, Dallas and Washington D's wouldn't scare me or stop me from starting Ryan during those weeks. The Giants look rock solid but hey there will be bumps along the way during any fantasy season. How many times have we all had studs have sub par games against match-ups you thought were ideal? On the other hand, we've all had guys explode and have great games against match-ups we thought would be very tough that week. It happens all the time, you just never know. Ryan has all the tools a QB could want at his disosal- a solid RB, TWO stud receivers and an improving O-line. Get on the bandwagon before it's too late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted July 29, 2009 Share Posted July 29, 2009 Get on the bandwagon before it's too late. That's the point, based on Ryan's ADP and the QB's going around him - it appears everyone is already on the bandwagon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted July 29, 2009 Share Posted July 29, 2009 I'm just not buying the 4000 yd potential. I still see them running the ball as much as humanly possible, and trying to win low-scoring games. They had tons of success with that strategy, why would they all of a sudden decide to open it up? Barring injury to Turner, I see him being the workhorse, not Ryan. I would buy Edwards as well, or maybe a Hasselbeck type a bit later than Ryan will go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishFreak Posted July 29, 2009 Author Share Posted July 29, 2009 I'm just not buying the 4000 yd potential. I still see them running the ball as much as humanly possible, and trying to win low-scoring games. They had tons of success with that strategy, why would they all of a sudden decide to open it up? Barring injury to Turner, I see him being the workhorse, not Ryan. I would buy Edwards as well, or maybe a Hasselbeck type a bit later than Ryan will go. Why not? Ryan threw for 3,400 yards as a ROOKIE. Not bad at all considering how difficult it is to play QB in the NFL in your 1st year. Turner will not be running 370 times this year and expect a much more balanced offense opened up a lot more. Tony G is a great addition. Another thing here to consider is the Atlanta D still isn't that great and will give up some points so Ryan will get his opportunities to put up good fantasy numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishFreak Posted July 29, 2009 Author Share Posted July 29, 2009 That's the point, based on Ryan's ADP and the QB's going around him - it appears everyone is already on the bandwagon. Yes and no. If his ADP is still in the 7th round range when I draft then i will be thrilled to grab him if I elect to go that route. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grogansghost Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 (edited) SOS is such an over analyzed dynamic of fantasy football. Teams can change over night from year to year so looking at schedules in advance is a tricky proposition. Fish, I agree with what you said about forecasting schedules being tricky - still, I always find myself checking out DMD's EOS article at least for the start of the season. I was more concerned about the wrinkle in ATL's schedule which has them facing four teams coming off their BYE's. My thinking was that even if all of those defenses are worse than we currently assume, or even below average, it must be a pretty significant disadvantage to face a team that has an extra week to rest and gameplan - maybe especially so for a younger QB who had the advantage of there not being much film on him the previous season. That made me curious about how teams fared in their games after a bye - last season it was 17-14-1. I thought the wins would heavily favor the teams coming offf the bye, but clearly, whoever tried to start a panic over ATL facing too many teams coming off a BYE is an alarmist idiot. I'm not sure if anyone has more of a historical look at how teams tend to fare after a bye week - I chose to look at last year based on recency. in terms of ATL and Ryan - I was thinking that the byes added up to give them an extra cruel schedule.....but I guess if BYES really did make that much of a difference vegas gambling would be a hell of a lot easier. Edited July 30, 2009 by Grogansghost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 (edited) Why not? Ryan threw for 3,400 yards as a ROOKIE. Not bad at all considering how difficult it is to play QB in the NFL in your 1st year. Turner will not be running 370 times this year and expect a much more balanced offense opened up a lot more. Tony G is a great addition. Another thing here to consider is the Atlanta D still isn't that great and will give up some points so Ryan will get his opportunities to put up good fantasy numbers. Turner probably won't run 370 times this year, but Norwood will probably factor more. They have one of the best RB tandems in the NFL. 3,400 hundred yards is impressive as a rookie, it put him near the middle of the pack. For total TDs Ryan was in the neighborhood of Campbell, Shaun Hill, and Flacco. It's as though you are counting on Atlanta completely changing there offensive philosophy and minimizing their strength (i.e...the run). Edited July 30, 2009 by bushwacked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishFreak Posted July 30, 2009 Author Share Posted July 30, 2009 Turner probably won't run 370 times this year, but Norwood will probably factor more. They have one of the best RB tandems in the NFL. 3,400 hundred yards is impressive as a rookie, it put him near the middle of the pack. For total TDs Ryan was in the neighborhood of Campbell, Shaun Hill, and Flacco. It's as though you are counting on Atlanta completely changing there offensive philosophy and minimizing their strength (i.e...the run). Not at all. What I am saying is the offense will be more efficient and more difficult to stop. They have stud players at all the key positions. The running game will still be good and get it's fair share but Ryan will also get more opportunities to do more damage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 er the diff between your low and high end there (3500/22 and 4000/28) is huge. And good luck winning your league with a 22 TD QB. I'm sure it happens but don't like the odds. Fine with him as QB2, no way as QB1. The bolded part above is like saying 'good luck winning your league with the 8th ranked QB'. 22 TDs is usually bottom of the top 10 QBs each year - it's actually not bad production. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vonromig Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 I think Matt Ryan will be suffering from "Big Ben Syndrome" ... A condition wereas fantasy owner will rate the QB higher than he should be, based on team wins, media attention, and annual hype rather than on the fantasy points the QB will obtain through actual scoring. Most prevalent after said QB has completed a 'soft' schedule or racking up yards due to coming-from-behind games. Easily spotted by the actual lack of TDs; less than 20. Also a favorite occurence with rookies (see Big Ben, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn), and back-ups moving to another team (see Damon Huard, David Garrard, Matt Cassel). Von Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Turner probably won't run 370 times this year, but Norwood will probably factor more. They have one of the best RB tandems in the NFL. 3,400 hundred yards is impressive as a rookie, it put him near the middle of the pack. For total TDs Ryan was in the neighborhood of Campbell, Shaun Hill, and Flacco. It's as though you are counting on Atlanta completely changing there offensive philosophy and minimizing their strength (i.e...the run). I fall somewhere in the middle. I think Ryan will have more TD's, because with Gonzo over the middle White might see more favorable coverage. Additionally with Gonzo, the GL is RIPE for the play-action fake. That's a weapon they didn't have last year. Additionally, Ryan should be better with more time working with the WR getting them the ball in better positions to get YAC. I think that D will have more of a pass rush this year, so they could see some second-half grinders. All that to say I see something like 3500-3700 and 25 TD's or so. A high tier three, low-end #1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Turner probably won't run 370 times this year, but Norwood will probably factor more. Good ole Norwood. Isn't this like the 4th year in a row Norwood is supposed to "factor more"? I'll believe that when I see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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