3xcrazy Posted August 6, 2009 Share Posted August 6, 2009 Paul Kuharsky, of ESPN.com, reports Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew has been splitting out wide at receiver at times during practice. The Jaguars are using some plays to get the ball in Jones-Drew's hands in space, allowing him to help minimize the hits he takes and keep him fresher longer. "The total volume (of plays) maybe will go up a little bit for Maurice, but we've already had him very involved," head coach Jack Del Rio said. "I think the biggest thing that will happen is that we won't wait until the third series to get him in on first down. We were really bringing him in on third down and then slipping him in later in the game out of deference for Fred (Taylor), and Fred was terrific." Del Rio went on to say Jones-Drew is now going to start, and the team is going to supplement his carries with other running backs. Del Rio said to look for a slight increase to Jones-Drew's use, while adding: "Maurice is a playmaker, we need to get the ball in his hands." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 6, 2009 Share Posted August 6, 2009 "The total volume (of plays) maybe will go up a little bit for Maurice, Del Rio said to look for a slight increase to Jones-Drew's use, Those two statements are troublesome to FFers for a guy who is looking to go in the top 3 pick in many drafts, and in some at 1.01... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip_Side Posted August 6, 2009 Share Posted August 6, 2009 Those two statements are troublesome to FFers for a guy who is looking to go in the top 3 pick in many drafts, and in some at 1.01... Why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 6, 2009 Share Posted August 6, 2009 Why? Because you'd be wanting a high 1st rounder to be touching the ball 300 times. It doesn't sound like MJD is going to sniff that if what Del Rio said is true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3xcrazy Posted August 6, 2009 Author Share Posted August 6, 2009 Sounds like they want to line him up at WR. For reverses, screens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted August 6, 2009 Share Posted August 6, 2009 He should get to 300. They'll have to use him TONS, it isn't like they have many other options. This sounds more to me like they don't want to get him near 400. They will be looking for somebody to take 10-12 carries off of his hands every week, as we all fully expected anyways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted August 6, 2009 Share Posted August 6, 2009 Right - he's not about to rush for 1500, but w/his receiving, he won't have to (to be worth very high pick). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 6, 2009 Share Posted August 6, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 6, 2009 Share Posted August 6, 2009 FYI FWIW, a 10% increase -- is that a slight increase? -- would put him at ~275 touches. fwiw, there are many that expect MJD to carry the ball 20 times a game plus reel in 60+ catches on top of that...for those people this should be a hugh eye opener....I think I projected MJD around 230 CARRIES and I can see around 50ish in catches to 275 seems to be in the ballpark.....with that few touches for MJD to remain top 2-3 those that draft him will need to see him get double digit TDs(most likely in the 15 range) and that isnt as easy as many think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted August 6, 2009 Share Posted August 6, 2009 fwiw, there are many that expect MJD to carry the ball 20 times a game plus reel in 60+ catches on top of that...for those people this should be a hugh eye opener....I think I projected MJD around 230 CARRIES and I can see around 50ish in catches to 275 seems to be in the ballpark.....with that few touches for MJD to remain top 2-3 those that draft him will need to see him get double digit TDs(most likely in the 15 range) and that isnt as easy as many think I assume you mean double-digit rushing TDs. He'll get total double-digit easy. I think he'll get more carries than that too; that's not even 15/game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 6, 2009 Share Posted August 6, 2009 I think the way the plan to utilize him is the best option...but do they really expect Greg Jones to be the one to carry the rest of the load on a run 1st team?... I expect MJD to average 18-20 carries a game and catch 5 passes on average as well.... so let's just say he gets 19 carries.....5 catches... so if he gets 304 carries and 80 receptions...that's amazing...but I think a more realistic number would be about 325 carries and 65 receptions... the focus should be on keeping MJD fresh and not having to run between the tackles as much as a starter normally would....so putting him out at WR should be ideal I think.....I just wonder which back is going to get that 10-12 carries a game that he won't be getting...because I don't think Jones will be the guy.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Largent Posted August 6, 2009 Share Posted August 6, 2009 eliminating kick-off returns and adding them to offensive palys would even be a uptick of 15%. Further 1st down plays > 5%. it's all musha anyways, he's a stud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 (edited) fwiw, there are many that expect MJD to carry the ball 20 times a game plus reel in 60+ catches on top of that...for those people this should be a hugh eye opener....I think I projected MJD around 230 CARRIES and I can see around 50ish in catches to 275 seems to be in the ballpark.....with that few touches for MJD to remain top 2-3 those that draft him will need to see him get double digit TDs(most likely in the 15 range) and that isnt as easy as many think MJD is in my mind the no-brainer pick for #1 overall in PPR leagues. Yes, Matt Forte could be there as well and I am very high on him as well but with the news out about less receptions for him and more work for K Jones, Forte drops a bit. Back to MJD, he had 259 touches last year and if he increases that by 10% he'll be up around 285. 300 is definitely within reach. Another comment on the bolded part above, you mention double digit TDs not being as easy as we think. Maybe it's not but MJD has had 10 or more TDs since '06 and in 2 of those years had 14 and 16. I have MJD as the #1 overall pick in PPR leagues like some others do and have his stats projected out as such... About 250 carries for 1160 yards 13 RuTDs 60 receptions 550 yards 2ReTDs 310 total touches (20% increase from last year) 1,710 total yards 60 rec. 15 TDs = 321 fantasy points or 20.01 per week avg. That's a slight uptick over his TD avg for the last 3 years by about 1.7 on the season, about a 25% increase in carries, about the same (little less for receptions) and about 336 more rushing yards than last year or about a 21 yard increase per game. Reasonable. Edited August 7, 2009 by irish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 The next Brian Westbrook Injuries included. Draft at your own risk IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 The next Brian Westbrook Injuries included. Draft at your own risk IMO That's an excellent comparison except MJD's a little less injury-prone and he's better at the GL and in short-yardage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 That's an excellent comparison except MJD's a little less injury-prone and he's better at the GL and in short-yardage. give that little guy 250+ touches and he'll be injury prone. And I don't remember Jax ever pounding the ball with MJD when they needed a yard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 give that little guy 250+ touches and he'll be injury prone.And I don't remember Jax ever pounding the ball with MJD when they needed a yard. Again he's short not little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 Again he's short not little. if you say so I'm not planning on losing a league because I took him 2nd overall and he gets broken cause Del Rio tries to run him 30 times a game. Good luck with that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 if you say soI'm not planning on losing a league because I took him 2nd overall and he gets broken cause Del Rio tries to run him 30 times a game. Good luck with that I'd take him 1st overall but unfortunately I don't have any early picks in any of my drafts. Don't get me wrong, they may run him a bunch some games but I think he'll get about 23 touches a game avg. which would be an increase of about 7-8 touches per game from last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 if you say soI'm not planning on losing a league because I took him 2nd overall and he gets broken cause Del Rio tries to run him 30 times a game. Good luck with that My take is just that there are less questions with MJD than many of the other backs. I mean outside of ADP, you have Turner, Forte, MJD, & LT. It's not like each of those don't have their questions (schedule, KJ/YPC, stated, 30+/injuries). So I think MJD has been getting drafted so high because the floor is pretty high and people feel he'll be a constant producer. Turner and Forte have both only had one year of full time RB work and people question LT. It's not like Sjax, CJ, Slaton, etc don't have their questions as well. I do believe Keggerz research is fairly accurate about his overall carries. I think people just don't love the other options outside of ADP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 The most important part of fantasy football is about how accurate your gut feelings are, and trusting them. My gut tells me MJD is not worth taking that early. I'm just not going to do it. I don't think I would take Forte either. The only back I would consider at #2 is DeAngelo, but I would most likely take Moss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 I think the way the plan to utilize him is the best option...but do they really expect Greg Jones to be the one to carry the rest of the load on a run 1st team?... I expect MJD to average 18-20 carries a game and catch 5 passes on average as well.... so let's just say he gets 19 carries.....5 catches... so if he gets 304 carries and 80 receptions...that's amazing...but I think a more realistic number would be about 325 carries and 65 receptions... I don't think there's a chance in hell of MJD hitting those kinds of numbers, and if he were to somehow get into that neck of the woods that his injury risk goes up dramatically and his production drops off significantly. If people are drafting MJD because they think he's going to skyrocket past the rest of the field and be RB1 by far, I think they're going to be badly disappointed. If they expect his workload to increase a bit, which in turn will likely result in a drop in production, they'll get numbers that ought to be fit for a 1.03 to 1.06 draft pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 I don't think there's a chance in hell of MJD hitting those kinds of numbers, and if he were to somehow get into that neck of the woods that his injury risk goes up dramatically and his production drops off significantly. If people are drafting MJD because they think he's going to skyrocket past the rest of the field and be RB1 by far, I think they're going to be badly disappointed. If they expect his workload to increase a bit, which in turn will likely result in a drop in production, they'll get numbers that ought to be fit for a 1.03 to 1.06 draft pick. he usually starts the season off slow anyways... I think he's been over-rated as it is.....I would take him 3rd at the very earliest and probably 4th or 5th.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 That's an excellent comparison except MJD's a little less injury-prone and he's better at the GL and in short-yardage. We don't know that yet. We don't even know how many projected carries or who he will be splitting them with. Will you take a player #1 with that many unknowns? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 (edited) We don't know that yet. We don't even know how many projected carries or who he will be splitting them with. Will you take a player #1 with that many unknowns? Absolutely!! I know I won't be taking ADP, as in PPR leagues (which is all I play in) over his 30 games playing as a Pro he has 15 games (half) of 15 points or less per game played and half of those, 8 games, (or about 1/4 off all his games played) are single digit point efforts. Hell, Forte had zero single digit games last year in PPR, ZERO! In my eyes, MJD and Forte are as clear-cut as they come in PPR for picks #1 and #2 and ADP doesn't even come after them. Edited August 7, 2009 by irish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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