Jaguars | Looking to keep MJD fresh during the season

[keggerz]

My take is just that there are less questions with MJD than many of the other backs. I mean outside of ADP, you have Turner, Forte, MJD, & LT. It's not like each of those don't have their questions (schedule, KJ/YPC, stated, 30+/injuries). So I think MJD has been getting drafted so high because the floor is pretty high and people feel he'll be a constant producer. Turner and Forte have both only had one year of full time RB work and people question LT. It's not like Sjax, CJ, Slaton, etc don't have their questions as well. I do believe Keggerz research is fairly accurate about his overall carries. I think people just don't love the other options outside of ADP.

thanks but only time will tell....but there is one thing for sure....many people are being very unrealistic with what they say are are realistic numbers etc...

[Zooty]

My take is just that there are less questions with MJD than many of the other backs. I mean outside of ADP, you have Turner, Forte, MJD, & LT. It's not like each of those don't have their questions (schedule, KJ/YPC, stated, 30+/injuries). So I think MJD has been getting drafted so high because the floor is pretty high and people feel he'll be a constant producer. Turner and Forte have both only had one year of full time RB work and people question LT. It's not like Sjax, CJ, Slaton, etc don't have their questions as well. I do believe Keggerz research is fairly accurate about his overall carries. I think people just don't love the other options outside of ADP.

 

I don't disagree with that. Luckily I also draft late so I don't have to worry about it

 

The most important part of fantasy football is about how accurate your gut feelings are, and trusting them. My gut tells me MJD is not worth taking that early. I'm just not going to do it. I don't think I would take Forte either. The only back I would consider at #2 is DeAngelo, but I would most likely take Moss.

 

I agree with that as well

 

except for the DeAngelo (RBBC) and Moss part

[Scooby's Hubby]

MJD is in my mind the no-brainer pick for #1 overall in PPR leagues. Yes, Matt Forte could be there as well and I am very high on him as well but with the news out about less receptions for him and more work for K Jones, Forte drops a bit.

 

Back to MJD, he had 259 touches last year and if he increases that by 10% he'll be up around 285. 300 is definitely within reach. Another comment on the bolded part above, you mention double digit TDs not being as easy as we think. Maybe it's not but MJD has had 10 or more TDs since '06 and in 2 of those years had 14 and 16.

 

I have MJD as the #1 overall pick in PPR leagues like some others do and have his stats projected out as such...

 

About 250 carries for 1160 yards 13 RuTDs 60 receptions 550 yards 2ReTDs

 

310 total touches (20% increase from last year) 1,710 total yards 60 rec. 15 TDs = 321 fantasy points or 20.01 per week avg. That's a slight uptick over his TD avg for the last 3 years by about 1.7 on the season, about a 25% increase in carries, about the same (little less for receptions) and about 336 more rushing yards than last year or about a 21 yard increase per game.

 

Reasonable.

I expect more than 13 TDs from a number one pick...Forte should top that. Forte will also have more carries with an offense that can throw as easily as they run. Even if the Bears go two TE set, it will be foolish to key the run against Chicago. How can you cover both TE's and Forte? Unfortunately for MJD, he plays for a poor offense that I don't belive will score enough TDs througout the season...if you are a Defensive Coordinator playing against JAX what are you going to do? I say key MJD and make Garrard and Merceds Lewis try to beat you, which makes me beleive that the JAX offense will be stale.

[Scooby's Hubby]

I expect more than 13 TDs from a number one pick...Forte should top that. Forte will also have more carries with an offense that can throw as easily as they run. Even if the Bears go two TE set, it will be foolish to key the run against Chicago. How can you cover both TE's and Forte? Unfortunately for MJD, he plays for a poor offense that I don't belive will score enough TDs througout the season...if you are a Defensive Coordinator playing against JAX what are you going to do? I say key MJD and make Garrard and Merceds Lewis try to beat you, which makes me beleive that the JAX offense will be stale.

And if it is bad enough in JAX for MJD to be playing WR, then the JAX passing game is in trouble...

[xPattonx]

Because you'd be wanting a high 1st rounder to be touching the ball 300 times. It doesn't sound like MJD is going to sniff that if what Del Rio said is true.

 

 

MJD will touch the ball around 20 times per game, he just won't get 20 carries. And he should get close to 300 touches... just not 300 carries. MJD is also arguably the best goal line back in the league. Basically he can do it all and at a high level of performance and that means he is a near perfect fantasy football rb. I slot him @2, right after Peterson but I wouldn't laugh at anybody that took him #1 overall. Del Rio can say whatever he wants but we all know there isn't another rb on the Jags roster that is talented enough to warrant many carries. I'm sure Del Rio will try to do whatever it takes to keep MJD fresh late into games and late into the season (which is exactly what MJD owners should be hoping for) but in the end like every other HC In his position he'll ride MJD into the ground if that means wins. The only question then becomes can MJD handle the load. I'm not sure he's built to handle it over many years but this will be his first with a full work load. No worries. Sky is the limit.

Edited August 8, 2009 by xPattonx