Tomlinson - Ranked third ?

[chicagobob466]

Can someone explain to me why on the huddle rankings that Tomlinson continues to rank third ? Especially, because of the following:

 

1) His primetime is questionable

2) There is a lot of talk of him losing reps to Sproles

3) Most other sites have him no more than 7th

 

I'm asking because the huddle has won me a lot of championships. I've never questioned their rankings. But this high end rank for Tomlinson makes me a little suspect.

 

Comments appreciated, thanks

Edited August 9, 2009 by chicagobob466

[Zooty]

Can someone explain to me why on the huddle rankings that Tomlinson continues to rank third ? Especially, because of the following:

 

1) His primetime is questionable

2) There is a lot of talk of him losing reps to Sproles

3) Most other sites have him no more than 7th

 

I'm asking because the huddle has won me a lot of championships. I've never questioned their rankings. But this high end rank for Tomlinson makes me a little suspect.

 

Comments appreciated, thanks

 

my guess would be

1- they expect him to bounce back

2- its just talk, maybe they don't believe it, I don't really expect Sproles to have more touches than he had last season

3- not sure the relevance since I don't think DMD looks at other websites to base his rankings.

 

Honestly, if the Huddle rankings have someone higher than I believe they should be, I still drop him on my own list.

 

I'm not sure why you think its a "little suspect". I don't think they are out to sabotage your season. I'm guessing what you really want is an explanation why he is 3rd?

[tazinib1]

Trust me...LT is NOT losing carries to Sproles.

[MTSuper7]

Here's my take: I think this is more of a reflection of there not being any other quality "safe" choices after AP and MJD. A lot of the top RBs from last year are one-year wonders, so it's risky to take a guy like Forte or Turner at 1.03. And many of the other proven guys are either facing bigger risk than LT (i.e. Westbrook) or are not on as potent of an offense with as good a schedule (i.e. Portis). That being said, LT is also risky (age being the main reason) but I guess his track record is the tiebreaker. Preseason reports have all been positive and that LT is 100% healthy now. And he gets to play OAK, DEN, KC for six of his games and, despite the Sproles involvement, will be the feature back. I would feel more comfortable with LT over any of the above mentioned RBs.

[irish]

I don't see anything wrong with LT being ranked 3rd. I have him 3rd as well but could be moving him to 4th if ADP is in fact more involved in the passing game.

[tazinib1]

I don't see anything wrong with LT being ranked 3rd. I have him 3rd as well but could be moving him to 4th if ADP is in fact more involved in the passing game.

 

Wait...you have ADP 4th?

[irish]

Wait...you have ADP 4th?

 

Absolutely in PPR formats. He ranked 9th last year in PPR and has never finished #1 overall. I may move him ahead of LT (who ranked 6th last year and was banged up) but I'm not moving ADP ahead of MJD or Forte.

[MTSuper7]

Absolutely in PPR formats. He ranked 9th last year in PPR and has never finished #1 overall. I may move him ahead of LT (who ranked 6th last year and was banged up) but I'm not moving ADP ahead of MJD or Forte.

 

ADP is ranked 4th on the Huddle PPR cheat sheet. Though Steven Jackson is ranked 2nd, and that scares the crap out of me. I find that one a little harder to swallow than LT being ranked 3rd.

[irish]

ADP is ranked 4th on the Huddle PPR cheat sheet. Though Steven Jackson is ranked 2nd, and that scares the crap out of me. I find that one a little harder to swallow than LT being ranked 3rd.

 

Is SJax really 2nd? I haven't looked. If so, don't get me wrong, SJax has all the talent to be the #1 RB in PPR, however, taking him there is just way too risky knowing his injury history. I have SJax at #5 with Chris Johnson and DeAngelo WIlliams breathing right down his neck.

[tazinib1]

Absolutely in PPR formats. He ranked 9th last year in PPR and has never finished #1 overall. I may move him ahead of LT (who ranked 6th last year and was banged up) but I'm not moving ADP ahead of MJD or Forte.

 

 

Ok PPR. But I'm certain his question was not regarding the PPR rankings, rather the regular rankings. Ya gotsta be more clearer der Mista Irish!!!

[irish]

Ok PPR. But I'm certain his question was not regarding the PPR rankings, rather the regular rankings. Ya gotsta be more clearer der Mista Irish!!!

 

Yeah, I was unclear as to which scoring system it was regarding. ADP is #1 for me in non-PPR as he is for most.

[Valhalla]

In mocks I've been doing he's been falling ridiculously low. I've even seen one where he fell to the 2nd round. This is ridiculous imo and I think when healthy he's still a top 10 back. He had one of those tricky foot injuries last year, which never really heal with practices / games / etc. And as far as the "losing carries to Sproles" theory, umm, they said the same thing with Turner there. It's just simply the offense they run. LT2 is good for 75% of the carries, if not more.

[Ursa Majoris]

Seems to me he's 3rd by default since, as someone pointed out earlier, there are really only two that can confidently be placed above him. After those two, it's more or less a lottery for the next four or so but his history, talent and SD's likely offensive game plan militates to LT2 being #3 RB.

[Pope Flick]

I am picking 2nd in my local and am taking LT, barring some wacky preseason event. If I had #1, I'd take him there, especially given the lame-ass QB situation in Minny, which probably leads to 9 in a box for AP.

 

My reasons: his numbers have trailed 3 years running now and I do NOT expect a 4th.

 

I think that arguably the SD offense is as strong as it ever has been with LT in the backfield. Gates, VJ, Chris Chambers and Sproles all create too much to account for. LT is still the clear #1 option and I expect him to take advantage of that. Results: he has more space than ever before.

 

The sked is good too, with Den, KC and Oakland 6 times.

[Ursa Majoris]

I am picking 2nd in my local and am taking LT, barring some wacky preseason event. If I had #1, I'd take him there, especially given the lame-ass QB situation in Minny, which probably leads to 9 in a box for AP.

 

My reasons: his numbers have trailed 3 years running now and I do NOT expect a 4th.

 

I think that arguably the SD offense is as strong as it ever has been with LT in the backfield. Gates, VJ, Chris Chambers and Sproles all create too much to account for. LT is still the clear #1 option and I expect him to take advantage of that. Results: he has more space than ever before.

 

The sked is good too, with Den, KC and Oakland 6 times.

MN had a lame ass QB situation last year too and ADP didn't exactly crap the bed.

[Pope Flick]

MN had a lame ass QB situation last year too and ADP didn't exactly crap the bed.

 

 

I didn't say that. I simply think that the supporting cast in SD has everything you want, whereas Min does not. Tie goes to SD (and Atlanta for that matter IMO).

[Henry Muto]

LT is a hard player to rank this year. Many people should not forget the name Shuan Alexander and how he went down in flames his last few years. Hopefully LT won't be following that same path. I think a lot of people are worried about the 30 yrs age since that is the drop off point on most RB's. A few great ones have bested that age for a few years and were good and since LT is a great one I think he can do it as well if he can stay healthy that will be the key of course. Depending on your league scoring system is where you will need to fit LT in. This is what makes fantasy football great if you think you really want LT you can hope he falls to you at the 6th, 7th or 8th pick and you will be very happy.

[godtomsatan]

LT is a hard player to rank this year. Many people should not forget the name Shuan Alexander and how he went down in flames his last few years. Hopefully LT won't be following that same path. I think a lot of people are worried about the 30 yrs age since that is the drop off point on most RB's. A few great ones have bested that age for a few years and were good and since LT is a great one I think he can do it as well if he can stay healthy that will be the key of course. Depending on your league scoring system is where you will need to fit LT in. This is what makes fantasy football great if you think you really want LT you can hope he falls to you at the 6th, 7th or 8th pick and you will be very happy.

 

The precipitous drop in his YPC numbers since 2006 is not a pretty sign and if this was any other player, I would stay away from him altogether. The good news is that 6 of his games are against the Chiefs, the Broncos, and the Raiders, and he's got a couple more against the Browns and the Bengals. The other good news is that he plays on a powerhouse offense and can put up fantasy points all over the place.

 

Where to rank him? Very difficult call. Even if he stays healthy, I don't think he's going to put up the rushing totals he has in the past, but there's not a lot of reason to think he isn't a significant part of the passing game. Maybe 1200-1300 total yards and 13-15 TDs? I guess the point would be that I don't blame anyone for drafting him in the top 5, but I also don't think I'd pull the trigger on him before #9 or so this season.

[CaptainHook]

Trust me...LT is NOT losing carries to Sproles.

How can you possibly say that? Of course he's gonna lose carries to Sproles. How many, is the question. Why else would they sign Sproles to the contract they did?

[CaptainHook]

One reason LT has been crap in the play-offs the last two years is because they used him all up in the regular season and he's too banged up. He's not capable of what he once was.

[tazinib1]

How can you possibly say that? Of course he's gonna lose carries to Sproles. How many, is the question. Why else would they sign Sproles to the contract they did?

 

 

If anything, he'll GAIN more carries than the previous 2 injury riddled seasons.

 

When people say "losing carries", it usually implies another RB is going to be phased into the offensive game plan more than the previous year. I HIGHLY doubt Sproles see's an uptick in carries, rather he'll LOSE carries.

Edited August 9, 2009 by tazinib1

[DMD]

A few things:

 

- his drop in production since 2006 has to take into account that 2006 was his record setting year that was better than any other RB in the history of the NFL. In 2007, he had a 4.7 YPC rushing average, 1949 total yards and 18 TDs which ranked him as the #1 scoring RB in the NFL (non-PPR) and within 4 points of being the #1 RB in PPR leagues. Last year he was injured wtih groin and toe injuries he still ended up as 6th best overall for RBs. So in the last three years, he's be the #1 of all time then the #1 RB in the league and then the #6 RB playing with a groin and toe injury. 2008 ended up nearly the same numbers as he had in 2004 when he was injured that year as well. By all reports, he is healthy and explosive in camp.

 

- The study that I did this year on how long RBs last strongly indicated that premier backs like LT last through being 30 or even 31. Barber, Dillon, Sanders, Emmitt and Watters all had top ten performances when they were 30. Barber, Martin and Watters did it at 31.

 

- Someone else pointed out - rankings should be about risk as well. Tomlinson has been top ten all eight years he has been in the league. No one else has done that - no one. Who are you going to put in front of LT? There were only five RBs with better fantasy points last year:

 

Matt Forte with his 3.9 YPC while healthy knowing he'll lose carries and catches to Kevin Jones. CHI had no other RBs to use in 2008.

 

Michael Turner who has one good year and faces a far more daunting schedule this year. ATL says they need to rest him more after 376 carries last year.

 

 

Thomas Jones who is 31 years old?

 

DeAngleo Williams and his one great year and a horrible 2009 schedule?

 

Those 4 and Peterson were the only ones to outperform LT last year.

 

LT may not be what he was in 2006 since no RB in the history of the NFL ever has been. But he's been pretty golden his entire career and has one "bad" season where he was only 6th best nursing groin and toe injuries. Time to write him off?

 

- Sproles is going so highly in drafts because his success (which was only two games) came in the final games of the year when they can be easiest recalled. Sproles best effort was in Denver when he ran for 115 yards on 14 carries and scored once. But Tomlinson had 14 runs for 96 yards and scored three touchdowns in that game. The only other game where Sproles had any fantasy value rushing was in the wildcard round where Tomlinson ran for 25 yards on five carries and then left the game with a groin injury. Sproles racked up 105 yards and two scores in the home win.

 

Other than the two games, He played in 16 other games and totaled 58 carries for 230 yards for a 3.9 yard average. Whopee. Sproles is a deadly special teamer (his first job), and a good third down back catching the ball and a rusher only when LT was a breather or if he was out. I realize people remember what they saw last, but two out of 18 good games? One is when LT had already scored 3 times and the other had an injured LT rushing with a torn groin and gaining 5 yards per carry before being pulled from the game.

 

I'm not ready to write off LT who is one of the best RBs in the history of the game.

[Pope Flick]

Those 4 and Peterson were the only ones to outperform LT last year.

 

 

In 1/PPR LT outperformed AD in 2008.

[theeohiostate]

I'll take LT third this season, every chance I get.

 

No way do I put Forte or Turner over LT , especially in PPR leagues.

 

I have the 3rd pick in my big money , it's a PPR , but I still think Peterson and MJD goes 1,2 , I'll jump on LT at 3.

[CaptainHook]

If anything, he'll GAIN more carries than the previous 2 injury riddled seasons.

 

When people say "losing carries", it usually implies another RB is going to be phased into the offensive game plan more than the previous year. I HIGHLY doubt Sproles see's an uptick in carries, rather he'll LOSE carries.

I'll take that bet.

 

I say Sproles has more than the 61 carries he had last year. Tomlinson had 292 carries last year. 315 in 2007. I say he has less than 300 carries this season.