Tomlinson - Ranked third ?

[polksalet]

I don't see anything wrong with LT being ranked 3rd. I have him 3rd as well but could be moving him to 4th if ADP is in fact more involved in the passing game.

 

Agreed, and that really creeps me out.

[CaptainHook]

No way do I put Forte or Turner over LT , especially in PPR leagues.

I can see not putting Turner over LT in PPR, but why not Forte? He had 63 catches last year. Who else is Cutler gonna throw to?

[DMD]

I can see not putting Turner over LT in PPR, but why not Forte? He had 63 catches last year. Who else is Cutler gonna throw to?

 

According to Lovie Smith, it will be Kevin Jones because he wants to focus Forte more on his role as the primary rusher. Oh yeah, there's also Olsen, Hester and Bennett. We could also mention how Cutler was one of the worst QBs in the league throwing to running backs. I am pretty sure they did not bring Cutler in to play like Orton and just dump everything off to the RB. Cutler is there to throw it downfield.

[CaptainHook]

I just don't like the Bears' WR's. They won't be open. Olsen and Forte are the best options in the passing game. Kevin Jones will get hurt like always . . .

[keggerz]

If I had the #2 pick in a redraft league (PPR or not) LT would be my selection without any hesitation. He may not end the season ranked 1 or 2 but I see his floor as MUCH less risky than the guys that have ADPs higher than LT.

Edited August 10, 2009 by keggerz

[godtomsatan]

According to Lovie Smith, it will be Kevin Jones because he wants to focus Forte more on his role as the primary rusher. Oh yeah, there's also Olsen, Hester and Bennett. We could also mention how Cutler was one of the worst QBs in the league throwing to running backs. I am pretty sure they did not bring Cutler in to play like Orton and just dump everything off to the RB. Cutler is there to throw it downfield.

 

Good thing LT has Philip Rivers to dump passes off to him then.

[bushwacked]

LT is a hard player to rank this year. Many people should not forget the name Shuan Alexander and how he went down in flames his last few years. Hopefully LT won't be following that same path. I think a lot of people are worried about the 30 yrs age since that is the drop off point on most RB's. A few great ones have bested that age for a few years and were good and since LT is a great one I think he can do it as well if he can stay healthy that will be the key of course. Depending on your league scoring system is where you will need to fit LT in. This is what makes fantasy football great if you think you really want LT you can hope he falls to you at the 6th, 7th or 8th pick and you will be very happy.

 

 

This is actually a very good post. The pre-Sean Alexander rationalization in for 2007, IMO, was just as convincing.

 

The precipitous drop in his YPC numbers since 2006 is not a pretty sign and if this was any other player, I would stay away from him altogether..

 

But it's not only his blatant drop on YPC, its a documented decrease on total yards and TDs. Is anyone taking him early paying attention to this severe downward trend?

 

Matt Forte with his 3.9 YPC while healthy knowing he'll lose carries and catches to Kevin Jones.

 

3.9 obviously sucks. So draft the 30 year old LT? His YPC was 3.8 last year.

Edited August 10, 2009 by bushwacked

[tazinib1]

I'll take that bet.

 

I say Sproles has more than the 61 carries he had last year. Tomlinson had 292 carries last year. 315 in 2007. I say he has less than 300 carries this season.

 

I'm not gonna bet, but I think your wrong. Be that as it may, I'll keep this post tucked away in my little notepad.

[McBoog]

I have the #1 pick in a redraft w/PPR this year and I will be taking LT. Here are the reasons:

 

1. Emotional. I am a homer and have HUGH man-love for LT. There are few people I have ever met that are better people (I do not know him well and he would not know me from Adam, but I have been around him some). FF is supposed to be fun, and I have gotten to the point in my FF life where I can back off a bit and worry less about winning it all while having more fun with it. The three years off have been good for me. All I have played in is BOTH homer leagues and rolling into my first pay-league draft and getting the #1 tells me that FUN should take a priority.

 

2. OK. Some of what I am going to say here in the non-emotional part can be mitigated by what I admitted above. But the reality is this (and DMD pointed it out in his earlier post ), you know that you are going to get consistent production, week in, week out, with LT. He will have some HUGH games and very few, if any, real stinkers. What more can you ask for from your #1 RB?

 

3. The Defense. Through the first 12 games last year, the Chargers averaged 55 plays, fewest in the league. This got better toward the end of the season as the defense improved under Rivera's guidance. Now with a whole cycle to put the system in and Merriman back and healthy, I think the Bolts D will return to dominance and get off the field faster and more often. This not only translates to more plays overall, but in turn provides more of an opportunity to try to control the game by running the rock. Even with an improvement to average, this gets better. Under Rivera, in their 4-0 finish to the regular season, the Chargers got their opponent off the field in three or fewer plays 15 times in 45 drives, held the opposing offense to a 36.7 percent third-down conversion rate and forced 10 takeaways. (Outscoring those opponents by an average of 40-18 was not coincidence either. They did get embarrassed by the Steelers in the third quarter of their playoff game however. )

 

4. The other backs. Even if Sproles does get a few more touches, there should be more plays for them (see above), and LT is still the guy. If anyone is going to get the workhorse, smashmouth, game closing carries like Turner used to, it could be Gartrell Johnson , who I see as being groomed as the next Turner and possibly future #1. He just does not fumble and his style is similar though not super speedy. Sproles was retained as insurance for this year and his ability to break the special teams magic out (they did the same thing to Turner before allowing him to go). Unless I missed something with all the moving and carziness in my life right now, Sproles does not have the long-term contract he wants and that in itself should be telling. Watch Gartrell during the pre-season. He should get a lot of carries.

 

5. The O-line. Goff is gone and has been replaced by either of two guys who are younger and road pavers. Clary at RT looks to be much improved from last year, his first as a starter and the coaching staff has been very impressed with him. This unit entered the season hobbled and was never really healthy and they still put up great overall offensive numbers. They will be better this year and come into the season healthy. This also translates to more room for LT to run.

 

6. Rivers. He has worked on getting his throws to the running backs improved. If you watch the Chargers like I do, this has been a frustration. Rivers just flat out missed a bunch of these throws to LT and Sproles, wide open in the flat. I see them BOTH getting more receptions based on this improvement alone, translating to the points you get from those receptions, especially in a PPR league.

 

7. The Offense. The Chargers' offense was one of just three in the league to average more than 6 yards per play in 2008. But it got fewer than 58 plays a game with which to work, fourth-fewest in the NFL. Improving the defense and getting more plays to these guys is a scary prospect. They often "scored too fast", but were in the mode of having to put points up because of the D's struggles. With the tools they have and an overall improved situation to work under, coming in fresh and healthy, this will open things up for LT as well. This is no longer a team that you can put "8 in the box" on and not get burned with the passing game. All the pieces are in place for even a better year offensively for the whole team.

 

8. Injuries. I will concede that older players are more of an injury concern than the younger guys, BUT, you cannot assume that an injury will occur during the season. You have to base your selection on what "is", not what "may" happen. LT has been dinged the last two years, but he has also been hurt before (remember the rib injury he played through four years back?) He has been hurt before, and when he can, he plays, injured. Nobody in Charger park has ever questioned his toughness. He doesn't whine about his booboos and therefore may have done himself a disservice by looking too invincible in his earlier years. He is healthy and explosive right now, and you can't ask for more than that from an established fantasy producer.

 

Am I saying he will be the number one producer this year. No, but he might be. Am I comfortable taking him at #1 with all of the rational provided? Yes! Are there a couple guys I should take ahead of him in the real world of FF? Probably, but... I also want to have fun!

 

[ksu70]

I'll take LT third this season, every chance I get.

 

No way do I put Forte or Turner over LT , especially in PPR leagues.

 

I have the 3rd pick in my big money , it's a PPR , but I still think Peterson and MJD goes 1,2 , I'll jump on LT at 3.

 

Hmmm..big money league...third pick...tipping the hand or shifty misdirection?

[irish]

I have the #1 pick in a redraft w/PPR this year and I will be taking LT. Here are the reasons:

 

1. Emotional. I am a homer and have HUGH man-love for LT.

 

I'm sure the rest of the post was great stuff but that's as far as I got.

[Bronco Billy]

3rd? Wow. The risk factor is way high with LT.

 

Tomlinson is right at the point in his career when you combine the factors of age (30 yrs old) and workload (2657 carries/3167 touches) where some of the other greats who were great combination RBs fell off the cliff in terms of production. In most recent times Holmes was a year older at 31 yrs, but had a lot less touches when his production went through the floor, and Faulk was 29 and had less carries/touches went his production quickly went south. Edgerrin James was 29 yrs old, had 2850 carries and 3125 touches when his production dropped like a lead balloon. Even the great combination RBs of the past - guys like Thurman Thomas, Eric Dickerson, and Barry Sanders all hit the same wall around the same time in their careers - right where LT is now.

 

LT has been superb, no question. But he has beaten the odds significantly at this point in his career, and is lined up with other greats at the top of the carries/touches list in terms of work & age where production starts to decline, and when it does it happens quickly:

 

at age 29, Faulk saw a 30+% drop across the board in rushing yds, rushing TDs, receiving yds, and receiving TDs, with a 32% drop in ppr FF production.

 

at age 31 (again, with a lot less carries and touches than LT at the time), Holmes saw a 37+% drop across the board in rushing yds, rushing TDs, receiving yds, and receiving TDs, with a 51% drop in ppr FF production.

 

at age 30, James saw a 57+% drop across the board in rushing yds, rushing TDs, receiving yds, and receiving TDs, with a 57% drop in ppr FF production.

 

at age 31 (with fewer carries and touches than LT at the time), Thurman Thomas saw a 38+% drop across the board in rushing yds, rushing TDs, and receiving TDs, with an 18% drop in receiving yds and with a 40% drop in ppr FF production.

 

at age 30, Eric Dickerson saw a 43+% drop across the board in rushing yds, rushing TDs, receiving yds, and receiving TDs, with a 48% drop in ppr FF production.

 

at age 30, Barry Sanders saw a 27+% drop across the board in rushing yds, rushing TDs, and receiving TDs, with a 5% drop in receiving yds and a 32% drop in ppr FF production.

 

Other guys near the top of the carry/touch list like Emmitt Smith (in the second half of his career), Bettis, Marcus Allen (in the later 2/3rds of his career) weren't the same kind of RBs that LT is, where they didn't have receiving make up as much of their production as LT. Only Curtis Martin was that type of RB and beat this age/carry/touch barrier, and only by 1 year. Let's get some perspective: That's one guy in the history of the NFL who managed to beat the age/carry/touch odds who had the same kind of rush/receiving type of game as LT.

 

This isn't anything against LT - he's been superb throughout his career. He's still got something in the tank that will probably get him into the top 10 in rushing yds, carries, and touches in NFL history before his career is over. But the point is that he is a hugh risk of seeing his production drop significantly in the coming year. Time and workload caught up with a lot of other superb RBs right at this time in their careers. There is one exception to that, and he beat the odds by 1 year only, no more. That has to be factored in when you are looking at drafting Tomlinson - he's at the point in his career where his very probable drop in production could ruin your FF season in the coming year. It would be foolish to not factor that in when ranking players.

[Pope Flick]

I don't think the Sean Alexander anaolgy carries much weight. He was always a "contract year" kind of guy who fell off a cliff after he signed big money.

 

In short, LT has far more heart than SA ever thought about.

[WaterMan]

MN had a lame ass QB situation last year too and ADP didn't exactly crap the bed.

 

Yep. Now days a QB sucking does not equal a RB not getting carries. Go Moreno!

[xPattonx]

Can someone explain to me why on the huddle rankings that Tomlinson continues to rank third ? Especially, because of the following:

 

1) His primetime is questionable

2) There is a lot of talk of him losing reps to Sproles

3) Most other sites have him no more than 7th

 

I'm asking because the huddle has won me a lot of championships. I've never questioned their rankings. But this high end rank for Tomlinson makes me a little suspect.

 

Comments appreciated, thanks

 

 

There are two basic opinions of LT this year. one is that he's all but done and the other is that he still has enough left to be an elite rb. The huddle is in the later camp I guess and I would lean more that way myself than to disregard LT altogether, although it is a pretty high ranking I agree. Personally I would not take a chance on LT until Peterson, MJD, Turner, Forte, De' Williams, Chris Johnson, Slaton and SJax are off the board but I wouldn't be shocked to see LT finish ahead of any but the top 4 honestly.

[bushwacked]

I don't think the Sean Alexander anaolgy carries much weight.

 

It's not a direct comparison, but the most recent reminder of how RBs who put up crazy stats can turn 30 and suddenly be at the end of a career. There were different pro/cons for SA coming off an awesome 2005 season. LT's significant decline of production over the last 2 years is alarming enough from a risk perspective; the limited "upside" of a 30-year old back compounds that risk.

 

LT may put up enough points to justify his draft position. I won't be the guy spending a top 8 pick to figure that out.

[DMD]

...LT's significant decline of production over the last 2 years is alarming enough from a risk perspective;...

 

He declined from the #1 performance of all-time in 2006 and yet was still the #1 RB in 2007. How can you count anything but his injury marred 2008? Every single back in the history of the NFL would have had a decline from what LT did in 2007. And his 2008 was still 6th best like it was in 2003 - was he considered on a decline then?

 

I can appreciate people not wanting to use him because of age (though my article shows it should not be aconcern) but saying he has a significant decline is misleading at best. He hasn't been worse than 6th and been 1st twice.

[godtomsatan]

He declined from the #1 performance of all-time in 2006 and yet was still the #1 RB in 2007. How can you count anything but his injury marred 2008? Every single back in the history of the NFL would have had a decline from what LT did in 2007. And his 2008 was still 6th best like it was in 2003 - was he considered on a decline then?

 

I can appreciate people not wanting to use him because of age (though my article shows it should not be aconcern) but saying he has a significant decline is misleading at best. He hasn't been worse than 6th and been 1st twice.

 

#1 all-time to #1 overall to #6 is still trending downward no matter how you slice it.

[keggerz]

#1 all-time to #1 overall to #6 is still trending downward no matter how you slice it.

so a decline to 6th while injured...to me that seems like very little risk for a back you pick in the top 3

[Pope Flick]

#1 all-time to #1 overall to #6 is still trending downward no matter how you slice it.

 

 

By stating it that way you are in fact holding his all time #1 year ahead of him because without repeating the #1 All Time Running Back year OF COURSE he's going to 'trend downward."

[Square]

I'm kind of tormented by having recently found out that I have the 4th pick in my main local (the one I actually care about). My league uses CBS who has LT listed at 12th. It makes it a tough (gut) call but I do follow DMD's logic. Right now, I'm leaning LT at the 4th. I just have questions about every one of the RBs so I'm hoping LT's higher floor (powerful offense, good line, improved D) will keep him solid this year. If he finished 6th at the end of the year, I wouldn't complain. The Fortes and Turners of the world also have their question marks...

[DMD]

I'd suspect that he comes off the best three year stretch of all time is another way to look at it.

[kroyrunner89]

he's still getting the high rankings cuz he's a big name player. i personally think slaton is more likely to be #3 than him, he's primed to have a huge season and a lot of people are overlooking him

[bushwacked]

so a decline to 6th while injured...to me that seems like very little risk for a back you pick in the top 3

 

I'm struggling on how to value LT this year. But history shows he has a far greater potential to plummet this year instead of repeating the 2005 and 2006 glory days.

 

Is he getting injured cause he is getting older? Can we expect the nagging injuries he has had over the last couple seasons to vanish? Very little risk in picking a 30 year old back in the top 3?

 

I can appreciate his decline, in part comes from his amazing 2007 season. But to rationalize it away and completely turn a blind eye to a significant downward trend in production is nonsensical. We are discussing a 30 year old RB going who went from 5.2 to 4.7 to 3.8 YPC; I'm not going to shrug my shoulders and just say...."Meh, that's just because he had a really really good season 2 years ago."

[LayLow]

Simply this:

 

The ONLY reason LT doesn't end in the top 5 RB's is if he misses games due to injury. There are PLENTY of other top 10 rb's going into this year that I think will miss the top 5 for OTHER REASONS then kick in the fact if they get injured...they fall further.

 

Picking fantasy injuries BEFORE the season starts is a HUGE mistake I have learned from year after year after year. Don't try to do it, it won't work.

 

Take LT where you feel comfortable taking him...but when you take someone like slaton over him...and slaton ends with 7 tds and LT has 13, you will understand why you missed your playoffs.

 

 

 

 

 

I could be wrong though :P