What happens when you draft Witten and Gates

[Grits and Shins]

It has been my experience that when you draft "defensively" that in the end the only team that is penalized by your defensive move is yours. There are way too many variables at play for 1 draft pick to effectively impact the draft strategies of all the other owners in the league.

 

The goal going into the draft should be to draft the best possible team with the best possible depth. The idea is to draft the players you believe will score the most combined points for you each week increasing your ability to score more points than your opponents. If you do indeed draft the best possible team with the best possible depth an obvious by product is that the other teams in your league are inferior. Trying to make the other teams inferior by removing talent from the pool of available players while not also maximizing the starting value of your team is a losing strategy.

 

I'm in more than one mandatory TE league where I can start a TE in the flex spot if I so choose ... I do not recall any winning team that regularly started a TE in the flex spot.

 

Having said that ... several years ago in my local before we played a TE position (I lobbied for years and years to get a TE to no avail) we changed the scoring so that TEs were awarded 2 points per reception versus 1 point for WRs. The team that won the SB that year started two TEs all year (Gates + another that I can't recall) ... but they were started as WRs as we did not have a TE position. The very next year we equalized the TE/WR scoring and added a TE position.

 

Just my 2 cents.

[jallen]

I had this happen to me in my draft last weekend. I grabbed Witten at 4.07 and was targeting a QB at 5.06. However, when it came to my 5th round pick Gates was there as the highest value pick.

Warner was the QB I really wanted in the 5th and he was already taken.

The only RBs available were Lynch and Moreno and I don't like the risk of either.

I already had Wayne and Boldin at WR so I didn't need the best 2 WR available in DeSean Jackson or Edwards (I have Gates' projected stats equal to them anyway)

So, I decided to gamble and take Gates who for sure would have been taken by one of the teams behind me. 3 of the 6 teams behind me already had their starting QBs and none had any TEs so there was a chance a decent QB would slip to the 6th and I blocked someone from getting a top tier TE. Besides, I have always had luck waiting on QB until later rounds and getting a valuable starter. (Cutler and Warner last year).

When my 6.07 pick came, McNabb was somehow still there so I scooped him up. I think this worked out well in my situation since I can start a TE with my flex. If McNabb wasn't there then it might not have worked out so well.

If I would have taken McNabb in the 5th, I would have then taken Ray Rice in the 6th. So, when it's all said and done, I got Gates instead of Ray Rice. I like Gates upside more than Rice having to share carries...and I can always swing a trade for more depth at RB with a team desperate for at TE.

So, I think in some situations this plan will work although I did not ever plan on this happening going into the draft.

[Thews40]

It has been my experience that when you draft "defensively" that in the end the only team that is penalized by your defensive move is yours. There are way too many variables at play for 1 draft pick to effectively impact the draft strategies of all the other owners in the league.

 

The goal going into the draft should be to draft the best possible team with the best possible depth. The idea is to draft the players you believe will score the most combined points for you each week increasing your ability to score more points than your opponents. If you do indeed draft the best possible team with the best possible depth an obvious by product is that the other teams in your league are inferior. Trying to make the other teams inferior by removing talent from the pool of available players while not also maximizing the starting value of your team is a losing strategy.

 

I'm in more than one mandatory TE league where I can start a TE in the flex spot if I so choose ... I do not recall any winning team that regularly started a TE in the flex spot.

 

Having said that ... several years ago in my local before we played a TE position (I lobbied for years and years to get a TE to no avail) we changed the scoring so that TEs were awarded 2 points per reception versus 1 point for WRs. The team that won the SB that year started two TEs all year (Gates + another that I can't recall) ... but they were started as WRs as we did not have a TE position. The very next year we equalized the TE/WR scoring and added a TE position.

 

Just my 2 cents.

In the plight to obtain the most awesome team possible, starting 2 WR, 2RB 1TE and 1 Flex leaves a lot on the table. If it were 2RB and 3WR it could change things, but nonetheless there are only a few elite Tight Ends. When you have one, you expect to get 10 points. When you draft a TE late, you expect to get 18 yards and a catch or two most days (it counts most when you lose by 2). The scales of balance will always net some teams strong at certain RB/WR/QB positions, but at TE there’s usually only 2 or 3 that really stand out for the year. The point I make with this, especially drafting early, is that of your trade bait, you should (barring injury) have someone to trade to fill whatever void you have. If your #3 RB/WR hits, you can afford to trade one of the TE’s. These are big names and big names net high deals in trades. You’d have to hit with RB/WR#2 (longshots) to make it work, but the point is it leaves you with very doable options after the draft.

[muck]

I have tried this sort of thing in years past with TEAM DEF somewhere in rounds 6-9 ... with little to no success.

[Thews40]

I have tried this sort of thing in years past with TEAM DEF somewhere in rounds 6-9 ... with little to no success.

My guess would be because the team D isn't that far off from the rest of the pack. After Gonzo at #3, the drop off from Cooley and Clark is steep, and it goes downhill from there. The point being the top three TE's need to stay top three to make this viable, where a team D against a strong O won't be as consistent and warrant the high trade value.

[Grits and Shins]

In the plight to obtain the most awesome team possible, starting 2 WR, 2RB 1TE and 1 Flex leaves a lot on the table. If it were 2RB and 3WR it could change things, but nonetheless there are only a few elite Tight Ends. When you have one, you expect to get 10 points. When you draft a TE late, you expect to get 18 yards and a catch or two most days (it counts most when you lose by 2). The scales of balance will always net some teams strong at certain RB/WR/QB positions, but at TE there’s usually only 2 or 3 that really stand out for the year. The point I make with this, especially drafting early, is that of your trade bait, you should (barring injury) have someone to trade to fill whatever void you have. If your #3 RB/WR hits, you can afford to trade one of the TE’s. These are big names and big names net high deals in trades. You’d have to hit with RB/WR#2 (longshots) to make it work, but the point is it leaves you with very doable options after the draft.

 

The problem with drafting a TE to trade is that you will be trading from a position of weakness. Other teams know that you have a player you need to move and you won't get the value you want for the player you drafted to trade. I think the likelihood of getting a RB or WR that was drafted in the 1st three rounds (or one performing at that level) for one of your TEs is very slim ... so why not just draft the player you want in the first place?

[Pillsbury]

Obviously in a TE-mandatory league, flex helps, and the league where it's been most successful basically awards the TE 1.5 pts for every 1 pt a WR gets for rec/yds.

 

One of my leagues is structured this way, and it is a .5 ppr.

 

I think this idea is interesting, and could work with the right team drafted. You have to get lucky and have some RB's fall to you later or you are really hurting.

 

In my league last year, I drafted Gonzo and picked up Carlson on waivers early in the season. There were weeks where I started both due to the flex, and the scoring for both was very nice.

 

The problem is, this year the depth at TE is very deep we think. If it were a couple years ago I would be interested in seeing how it worked out for an owner.

[Chavez]

One of my leagues is structured this way, and it is a .5 ppr.

 

I think this idea is interesting, and could work with the right team drafted. You have to get lucky and have some RB's fall to you later or you are really hurting.

 

In my league last year, I drafted Gonzo and picked up Carlson on waivers early in the season. There were weeks where I started both due to the flex, and the scoring for both was very nice.

 

The problem is, this year the depth at TE is very deep we think. If it were a couple years ago I would be interested in seeing how it worked out for an owner.

Good point - the TE edge may vary from year to year.

[Bigb2345]

You turn into a Pumpkin.

[The Holy Roller]

If it's a PPR league with TE's getting 1.5 PPR and you can start two TE's, I can see this being doable.

[gandalas]

In the latest league which I drafted, I noticed that it is an 8-team TWO TE starting league.

 

I picked #2 out of 8. First round - MJD. Second round - DeAngelo Williams. Third - Greg Jennings.

 

At the end of the 4th round, when I was coming up, I noticed that NO tight ends had been taken yet. So at 4.7 I jumped on Witten. at 4.8, the other guy grabbed Dallas Clark, and then another player at 5.1, and at 5.2 I grabbed Gates.

 

It was at this time that I explained to the rest of the league that it was a 2-TE starting league, to which at least half the owners expressed incredulity. Apparently they did not read the league rules before the draft? Anyway, this started one heck of a TE run for the next 2 rounds, and I was able to snatch up Ronnie Brown as my 3rd RB and Warner in the 7th (this is only a 5-keeper league with HEAVY qb scoring, so I had no qualms of riding him for a year). All in all, I feel that I took advantage of my league-mates' non-preparedness for the draft. And no, I am not the commissioner, so I did not make the rules and not inform everyone. Apparently I was just the only one who read the starting lineup requirements prior to the draft...

[Thews40]

In the latest league which I drafted, I noticed that it is an 8-team TWO TE starting league.

 

I picked #2 out of 8. First round - MJD. Second round - DeAngelo Williams. Third - Greg Jennings.

 

At the end of the 4th round, when I was coming up, I noticed that NO tight ends had been taken yet. So at 4.7 I jumped on Witten. at 4.8, the other guy grabbed Dallas Clark, and then another player at 5.1, and at 5.2 I grabbed Gates.

 

It was at this time that I explained to the rest of the league that it was a 2-TE starting league, to which at least half the owners expressed incredulity. Apparently they did not read the league rules before the draft? Anyway, this started one heck of a TE run for the next 2 rounds, and I was able to snatch up Ronnie Brown as my 3rd RB and Warner in the 7th (this is only a 5-keeper league with HEAVY qb scoring, so I had no qualms of riding him for a year). All in all, I feel that I took advantage of my league-mates' non-preparedness for the draft. And no, I am not the commissioner, so I did not make the rules and not inform everyone. Apparently I was just the only one who read the starting lineup requirements prior to the draft...

 

Starting the TE run was the objective, and I think I figured out why. In you pre-draft plan, there are usually minimum requirements for whatever position you're targeting. If, for example you targeted having Rivers as the lowest QB you'd be good with, and the QB run starts, you’d probably jump on board. If you were really planning on this and it was right there and your min guy was gone, you'd be more likely to pull one round early, and what you hope for is there's enough depth to keep it going on down the line. The minimum TE I wanted this year was at least Clark. IF I didn’t get him, I prolly woulda freaked out and drafted two too soon to try and cover.

 

A lot of scoring systems or structures don't value the TE, but in those that do a solid TE is the envy of a lot of teams. This isn't a RMT, but these are my TE's this year:

 

Local - Drafted Witten in the second with the #8 slot. It's a different kind of mandatory TE keeper league, but since you can only keep one per round, I had to do it in the 2nd. No other TE drafted in a graduated PPR giving TE's 1, WR 0.5 and RB .25. Gates went with the first pick in the 4th (no keepers from 3 on), and Cooley was next . Gonzo went with the last pick in the 4th. Olson went in the 5th, and to my surprise Clark went in the 6th.

 

Ladder - Gates/Witten.

 

AY2 – Gates/Clark

 

FRTFL – Clark/Cooley.

 

If my “TE year” theory pans out I should hit. We’ll see…

 

Any other two strong TE teams out there?

 

PS Grits... it's not defensive if you start them both.

Edited September 8, 2009 by Thews40

[Grits and Shins]

PS Grits... it's not defensive if you start them both.

 

It is defensive if you could have a better starter in your flex position. There are not many leagues I know of where starting a TE as your flex position is optimal. While having two top TEs may make you very strong at the TE position it does not very often make the overall strength of your team better than had you drafted another skill player.

 

If your flex TE outscores the other flex players you could drafted at that spot then you will have done well. The reason the top TEs are coveted is not because of their large scoring potential but because of the relative difference between the top couple of TEs and the 12th TE. When you start a TE out of his position (in the flex) the fact that he might the 3rd overall TE in the league doesn't mean he is necessarily better than the 20th WR or 20th RB that you might have drafted and started in his position.

 

I'm looking forward to your updates.

Edited September 8, 2009 by Grits and Shins

[Thews40]

It is defensive if you could have a better starter in your flex position. There are not many leagues I know of where starting a TE as your flex position is optimal. While having two top TEs may make you very strong at the TE position it does not very often make the overall strength of your team better than had you drafted another skill player.

 

If your flex TE outscores the other flex players you could drafted at that spot then you will have done well. The reason the top TEs are coveted is not because of their large scoring potential but because of the relative difference between the top couple of TEs and the 12th TE. When you start a TE out of his position (in the flex) the fact that he might the 3rd overall TE in the league doesn't mean he is necessarily better than the 20th WR or 20th RB that you might have drafted and started in his position.

 

I'm looking forward to your updates.

Weigh the option of trading your #2 stud TE for a weakness. Let's say you need a QB, RB, or WR and have Gates as your #2? Gates is money... big names, but only after the season starts. This isn't defensive, because your flex is designated as your TE#2. Again, only works with a mandatory TE and PPR.

[jaxfactor]

If you did that in one of my leagues, it wouldn't make me panic at all. The way I figure it is that I may not get one of the top 2 anyway. And if I don't get one of the top 2, I say to myself, "great, now I don't have to worry about a TE for awhile".

[Thews40]

If you did that in one of my leagues, it wouldn't make me panic at all. The way I figure it is that I may not get one of the top 2 anyway. And if I don't get one of the top 2, I say to myself, "great, now I don't have to worry about a TE for awhile".

Only if the TE position isn't PPR/ mandatory. You have X number of slots. If one of them is a TE, and your TE sucks, it will gnaw at the core of your soul Mark... Witten/Gates/Gonzo/Clark/Cooley .... (insert name here). That's the list... IMO. We'll see...

Edited September 8, 2009 by Thews40

[Chavez]

One thing that does throw that off is that it's dependent on the strength of the TE position that year; I had a team at my draft say that there were going to be SEVERAL top TEs this year, and I had to agree that 1-10 on the cheat sheet might almost all qualify as "tier 1"

[The Irish Doggy]

I can see the case for the PPR, flex, TE mandatory league, but I think it would hurt you otherwise.

[Grits and Shins]

Weigh the option of trading your #2 stud TE for a weakness. Let's say you need a QB, RB, or WR and have Gates as your #2? Gates is money... big names, but only after the season starts. This isn't defensive, because your flex is designated as your TE#2. Again, only works with a mandatory TE and PPR.

 

Mandatory TE requires you start ONE TE. When you start a second TE in your flex spot he is just another WR. So, I say again, if your second TE scores that you are stating as a WR in your flex spot scores better than the middle range RB or WR you could have had at the same spot then you will be fine. If not then you will have made a mistake.

[Thews40]

Mandatory TE requires you start ONE TE. When you start a second TE in your flex spot he is just another WR. So, I say again, if your second TE scores that you are stating as a WR in your flex spot scores better than the middle range RB or WR you could have had at the same spot then you will be fine. If not then you will have made a mistake.

I see what you're saying, but it's more than just comparing the strength of your flex spot by position. The advantage is attempting to skew the draft. It also depends on where you are in the snake. If you did this at the turn, you'd wait for 22 picks for it to come back. If an extra 4 TE's were taken, it shifts things by 4, but it might not make that much of a difference. In the 6 slot, it could push down enough of what you were targeting to make it worth it. Since the draft changed (in theory if there is a TE run), who you wind up with later also changed, so when you compare slot-for-slot against position, your other positions should have been stronger with the shift.

 

Big question - How deep are TE's this year? I've heard it stated in this thread they're deep and will net ten good ones. I don't think so, but it may come true. Historically, there's really only about 4 good ones and the drop off is very steep after that. Also, TE's that catch 2 TD's in one game and then go for three weeks with next to nothing aren't really that big of a help. The top TE's are consistently part of the offensive plan and targeted a lot more than average TE's.

 

Trade value - In theory, if you have Gates and Witten in a mandatory TE PPR with a TE flex, you can trade either and still be solid at TE. Making trades is hard and rare in the leagues I play in, but again these are big names, and big names go for big names. Assume you have an average TE, gets about 5 points a week and it's week 4. If you were strong and deep at QB/WR/RB, getting a big name like Gates/Gonzo/Witten will make it a lot easier to give up a big name. I guess the point is, assuming they both pan out, moving a big name TE for a solid position in week 4 gives you 4 weeks worth of data to target who you want and any of the RB/WR/QB positions. There are going to be busts, injuries and surprises, and by week 4 it's more likely another team could be deep enough to make it painless for them to get one of the TE's and fill a void in your team.

Edited September 9, 2009 by Thews40

[Grits and Shins]

I'm thinking trade value of Witten and Gates took a hit in opening weekend as neither finished in the top 10 of TE scoring. Several TEs that finished in the top 10 this week were snagged off of waivers.

 

Gates was the 13th TE with 5 catches for 83 yards or 13.30 points ... as a flex Gates was the 83rd ranked player

Witten was the 14th TE with 5 catches for 71 yards or 12.10 points ... as a flex Witten was the 103rd ranked player

 

Did you start one in your flex? How did it work out for you?

[Thews40]

I'm thinking trade value of Witten and Gates took a hit in opening weekend as neither finished in the top 10 of TE scoring. Several TEs that finished in the top 10 this week were snagged off of waivers.

 

Gates was the 13th TE with 5 catches for 83 yards or 13.30 points ... as a flex Gates was the 83rd ranked player

Witten was the 14th TE with 5 catches for 71 yards or 12.10 points ... as a flex Witten was the 103rd ranked player

 

Did you start one in your flex? How did it work out for you?

I expected massive Gates against Oakland, but the D showed up. Shopping Gates now to pick up a soild RB#2.

[Grits and Shins]

I expected massive Gates against Oakland, but the D showed up. Shopping Gates now to pick up a soild RB#2.

 

A solid #2 RB that you could simply have drafted yourself instead of a 2nd TE?

 

So you are already selling low then given that Gates' performance this week was not top 10. I wonder how many of your league mates realize that you need to trade a TE and how that might impact your ability to get full value?

 

You didn't answer my questions - did you start one of your TEs in the flex spot and how did it work out for you?

[bushwacked]

I'm a big supporter of going for talent at the right time and not getting to a point in the 3rd/4th/5th round where you are drafting guys you aren't high on to fill out roster spots. At the end of the day I have trouble seeing this as anything more than making 2 minor reaches, in a position with a lot of depth where you only need to start 1, and giving up pretty significant potential value at RB and WR.

[Thews40]

A solid #2 RB that you could simply have drafted yourself instead of a 2nd TE?

 

So you are already selling low then given that Gates' performance this week was not top 10. I wonder how many of your league mates realize that you need to trade a TE and how that might impact your ability to get full value?

 

You didn't answer my questions - did you start one of your TEs in the flex spot and how did it work out for you?

You are asking me to "prove" hindsight has 20/20. I'm not dying at RB2, and your continued assumption that anyone drafted in the #3 or #4th round would me money... BS. I have Gates/Witten and a bunch of longshots. If I upgrade(any slot) it will be due to a need... one I can fill with a TE trade. Your logic is bogus.