skylive5 Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Big John and BB bring up a point in another thread that makes me wonder. The top 9 scorers from last year in one league I am in are QBs. 14 out of the top 20... QBs. The top RB ranked 10th and the top WR ranked 44th. So my league scoring tells me that a QB in the first round isn't all that out of line. Is that off the wall thinking? Should I ignore that and go with RBs anyway? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trojanmojo Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Big John and BB bring up a point in another thread that makes me wonder. The top 9 scorers from last year in one league I am in are QBs. 14 out of the top 20... QBs. The top RB ranked 10th and the top WR ranked 44th. So my league scoring tells me that a QB in the first round isn't all that out of line. Is that off the wall thinking? Should I ignore that and go with RBs anyway? Personally, I don't think it's out of line at all. It is what it is and it sounds to me like it would be a great idea to look at a QB. That said, I think it has more to do with the point differential between players of the same position. If the 9 QBs all were say within short range of each other where total points is concerned but the top RBs are way ahead of the next tier in terms of points scored, then the top RBs would still be a nice pick even if they are below the top 9 point scorers, who are QBs in this case. Hope that makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 value is better measured in comparison with other starters at the position. if 14 of the top 20 scorers are QBs, that tells me you can reasonably expect to wait until like the 8th round to draft a top 20 scorer -- at QB. assume you have 12 QB starters, 24 RB starters, 36 WR starters. what do you expect to be the difference between the #1 QB and the #12 QB? how does that compare with the difference between the top RB and the #24 RB? value is effected most by scarcity, not by scoring system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 (edited) Absolutely crappy idea to take a QB in the first, unless the scoring is so high that the difference between the top few QBs and the rest of the pack is hugh. I can't emphasize this enough: You don't draft by how many points your guys will score, you draft by how many points your guys will outscore the other team's guys. In other words, if QB1 scores 1,000,235 FF pts and QB12 scores 1,000,201 pts; and RB1 scores 235 points and RB12 scores 100 pts; the guy who drafts QB12 and RB 1 outscores the guy who drafts QB1 and RB12 by 101 points. That's how you win in FF. It's not how much you score, it's how much more you score. It is critical to determine player value (pt differential between players in the same position) and then comparing value between positions to make sound draft decisions (and then use things like ADP and owner tendancies to modify accordingly). Edited August 25, 2009 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furd Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 What everbody else(or just about everyone else) said. Its all about value. In some leagues (particularly in the past - TD only leagues) PKs score more than any other position (just like the NFL). Does that mean that you draft a PK in the first round? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted August 25, 2009 Author Share Posted August 25, 2009 Absolutely crappy idea to take a QB in the first, unless the scoring is so high that the difference between the top few QBs and the rest of the pack is hugh. I can't emphasize this enough: You don't draft by how many points your guys will score, you draft by how many points your guys will outscore the other team's guys. In other words, if QB1 scores 1,000,235 FF pts and QB12 scores 1,000,201 pts; and RB1 scores 235 points and RB12 scores 100 pts; the guy who drafts QB12 and RB 1 outscores the guy who drafts QB1 and RB12 by 101 points. That's how you win in FF. It's not how much you score, it's how much more you score. It is critical to determine player value (pt differential between players in the same position) and then comparing value between positions to make sound draft decisions (and then use things like ADP and owner tendancies to modify accordingly). Interesting take from everyone....... BB... QB1 and RB12 outscored RB1 and QB12 by over 50 pts. Believe me...I understand the not taking of a QB in the first round. I just wondered if league scoring was ever taken into consideration. It appears not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted August 25, 2009 Author Share Posted August 25, 2009 Does that mean that you draft a PK in the first round? I have...and he led me to a 14-2 record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTed46 Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Absolutely crappy idea to take a QB in the first, unless the scoring is so high that the difference between the top few QBs and the rest of the pack is hugh. I can't emphasize this enough: You don't draft by how many points your guys will score, you draft by how many points your guys will outscore the other team's guys. In other words, if QB1 scores 1,000,235 FF pts and QB12 scores 1,000,201 pts; and RB1 scores 235 points and RB12 scores 100 pts; the guy who drafts QB12 and RB 1 outscores the guy who drafts QB1 and RB12 by 101 points. That's how you win in FF. It's not how much you score, it's how much more you score. It is critical to determine player value (pt differential between players in the same position) and then comparing value between positions to make sound draft decisions (and then use things like ADP and owner tendancies to modify accordingly). I strongly agree with BB here. In a 12 man league, you have 32 starting QBs to choose from and you usually start 1. You have less than 32 solid RBs to choose from and you start 2. The point differential from QB 1 to QB 12 is not that different from RB 1 to RB 12 (or even RB 24). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 I just wondered if league scoring was ever taken into consideration. It appears not. League scoring is the primary factor taken into consideration. It's just that it is the point differential generated by that scoring system, as applied to the number of starters, that matters, not the raw score generated by the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notamomo Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 I know this may be going against the grain, but...I posted this in the other forum recently. Hard to convince me otherwise. Good luck. QUOTE (No Quarter @ 8/14/09 1:58pm) 6pt's for a passing td with a -2 point penalty for an Int. That changed the equation, and now you want a QB that throws for lots of yds. and td's with very few Int's. ...you take a QB early and you can end up chasing other positions down the line, but in this type of scoring system I think it is worth it. Just my opinion. I've been in the same re-draft league for 10 years with this scoring system. The top 2 or 3 QBs can easily score 100+ more points than than the 6th or 7th best, let alone the 11th or 12th best. Taking a QB in round one, usually late, has been a super bowl winning formula in at least 4 of the 10 years. Picking at 10-12 (I pick at 10 this year) I will definitely jump on Brees or Brady and then take the top WR in the second. It should be A. Johnson or C.Johnson. When your QB scores 20+ each week with upside of 40+ in any game, rounding out the roster and getting Ws is a lot easier. If you look at your league stats, you'll probably see that drafting a QB in round 1 makes a lot of sense. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 (edited) Interesting take from everyone....... BB... QB1 and RB12 outscored RB1 and QB12 by over 50 pts. Believe me...I understand the not taking of a QB in the first round. I just wondered if league scoring was ever taken into consideration. It appears not. OK, does that happen on a regular basis, or is it an unusual year. Also - how many QBs vs RBs do you start? If you start 1 QB but 2 RBs, then value using a worst starter method would use value at each position with a QB baseline of QB12, but a RB baseline of RB24. In other words, QB1 value would be QB1-QB12, but RB1 value would be RB1-RB24. Same principle at other positions. I'm guessing that will impact your values a bit. Edited August 25, 2009 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 value is better measured in comparison with other starters at the position. if 14 of the top 20 scorers are QBs, that tells me you can reasonably expect to wait until like the 8th round to draft a top 20 scorer -- at QB. assume you have 12 QB starters, 24 RB starters, 36 WR starters. what do you expect to be the difference between the #1 QB and the #12 QB? how does that compare with the difference between the top RB and the #24 RB? value is effected most by scarcity, not by scoring system. This is exactly right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furd Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 I have...and he led me to a 14-2 record. Was that before or after the drop kick fell out of fashion. The important thing is the difference between the points scored by the players at a particular position (when taking into account your starting lineup requirements), not the overall points scored by the player. This is the reason that PKs are not all that valuable in FF. The difference between the #1 PK and the #12 PK is usually about 2 points per game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted August 25, 2009 Author Share Posted August 25, 2009 OK, does that happen on a regular basis, or is it an unusual year. Happens every year. I have never drafted the way I presented the question... I was just trying to figure out if anyone out there gives too much weight to their last years top performers. It is interesting, to me anyway, that not too many people do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Happens every year. I have never drafted the way I presented the question... I was just trying to figure out if anyone out there gives too much weight to their last years top performers. It is interesting, to me anyway, that not too many people do. I weight the previous year (and the year before) more than say 4 to 5 years ago, to account for trends in rules and play scheming. It's marginal though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted August 25, 2009 Author Share Posted August 25, 2009 Was that before or after the drop kick fell out of fashion. The important thing is the difference between the points scored by the players at a particular position (when taking into account your starting lineup requirements), not the overall points scored by the player. This is the reason that PKs are not all that valuable in FF. The difference between the #1 PK and the #12 PK is usually about 2 points per game. That was the year before we changed our league scoring. Kicker got points based on length of kick and they were big time points. We then became like everyone else...... "it's only a kicker". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 I do an averaging of 3-5 years to look for trends in scoring system and league setup. This helps smooth out any anomalies that a one year picture would give. And if I have had time to generate projections for the upcoming season (or, in most years take DMDs and make some minor tweaks or use rhino;s sheets as a baseline), then I can just use those to see if I see anything that pops out based on the projections. So, if my historical analysis showed that in general, top QBs did indeed present good value, then yes, I would advocate going QB earlier than usual. If my historical analysis showed that there was not the value at QB, yet my projections indicated the opposite, that triggers me to look more closely at my projections to try determine what I am seeing in the current year that is different than in years past. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notamomo Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Have a look at these numbersfrom my league in 2008 and let me know if you think a QB in round one is out of the question. To me, it seems like a no-brainer. I'm curious about what others think. Top 3 QBs: Brees, Drew QB NO 411.1 Rivers, Philip QB SD 354 Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 352.8 QBs 10-12: Pennington, Chad QB MIA 262.5 Thigpen, Tyler QB KC 250.9 Garrard, David QB JAC 247.2 Top 3 RBs: Turner, Michael RB ATL 306.7 Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR 304.7 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 279.7 RBs 10-12: Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC 222.5 Johnson, Chris RB TEN 215.1 Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG 205.9 RBs 22-24: Grant, Ryan RB GB 161.3 Ward, Derrick RB TB 158.7 Stewart, Jonathan RB CAR 151.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Have a look at these numbersfrom my league in 2008 and let me know if you think a QB in round one is out of the question. To me, it seems like a no-brainer. I'm curious about what others think. Top 3 QBs: Brees, Drew QB NO 411.1 Rivers, Philip QB SD 354 Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 352.8 QBs 10-12: Pennington, Chad QB MIA 262.5 Thigpen, Tyler QB KC 250.9 Garrard, David QB JAC 247.2 Top 3 RBs: Turner, Michael RB ATL 306.7 Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR 304.7 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 279.7 RBs 10-12: Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC 222.5 Johnson, Chris RB TEN 215.1 Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG 205.9 RBs 22-24: Grant, Ryan RB GB 161.3 Ward, Derrick RB TB 158.7 Stewart, Jonathan RB CAR 151.3 With that kind of scoring, you could make a legit argument for making a QB a midround pick - somewhere after the top 3 (and supposing WR and TE are similar or lesser differntial to RBs) - if you see the same kind of scoring differentials in other years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Have a look at these numbersfrom my league in 2008 and let me know if you think a QB in round one is out of the question. To me, it seems like a no-brainer. I'm curious about what others think. Top 3 QBs: Brees, Drew QB NO 411.1 Rivers, Philip QB SD 354 Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 352.8 QBs 10-12: Pennington, Chad QB MIA 262.5 Thigpen, Tyler QB KC 250.9 Garrard, David QB JAC 247.2 Top 3 RBs: Turner, Michael RB ATL 306.7 Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR 304.7 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 279.7 RBs 10-12: Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC 222.5 Johnson, Chris RB TEN 215.1 Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG 205.9 RBs 22-24: Grant, Ryan RB GB 161.3 Ward, Derrick RB TB 158.7 Stewart, Jonathan RB CAR 151.3 This is exactly why you need to look at more than one year's worth of data. Remove Brees from this equation and you are looking at somewhere between 90-100 pts differential between a 1st/2nd round and a 8th round QB. At RB, even if you remove the top 2 guys, you are still at about a 120 pt. differential. Between an early 1st round pick and a 3rd/4th round pick. So, in addition to a greater point differential at RB (unless your predictive powers are so great you can determine with a high level of confidence what QB will blow the others away this year), you also can wait a greater amount of time at drafting a QB (note 4 rounds or so for RB value to drop vs. 8 rounds for QB) and maintain the same point differential, meaning you are drafting that much more value in the other rounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 also dont let the raw point differential be the only deciding factor...you should look at the % too IE: Brees to Garrard is a 163.9 point diff yet the production you get from the QB1 is 40% more than QB12 Turner to Stewart is a 155.4 point diff yet the production you get from the RB1 is 50% more than RB24 so the value is still actually at RB...for QB1's value to match that of RB1 then QB12s points scored would have to be 205.55 which is a 17% decrease over what QB12 currently produces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Have a look at these numbersfrom my league in 2008 and let me know if you think a QB in round one is out of the question. To me, it seems like a no-brainer. I'm curious about what others think. Top 3 QBs: Brees, Drew QB NO 411.1 Rivers, Philip QB SD 354 Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 352.8 QBs 10-12: Pennington, Chad QB MIA 262.5 Thigpen, Tyler QB KC 250.9 Garrard, David QB JAC 247.2 Top 3 RBs: Turner, Michael RB ATL 306.7 Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR 304.7 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 279.7 RBs 10-12: Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC 222.5 Johnson, Chris RB TEN 215.1 Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG 205.9 RBs 22-24: Grant, Ryan RB GB 161.3 Ward, Derrick RB TB 158.7 Stewart, Jonathan RB CAR 151.3 can you post a link to this league?(or link to league leaders) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notamomo Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 can you post a link to this league?(or link to league leaders) It's a private league on CBSSportsline. Which leaders are you looking for? Other odditties include starting QB,RB,WR,WR,FLEX(RBorWR) and lots of bonus points for long TDs. So in addition to 6pts for passing TDs, you can start 1RB and 3WR if you want. 12 teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 It's a private league on CBSSportsline. Which leaders are you looking for?Other odditties include starting QB,RB,WR,WR,FLEX(RBorWR) and lots of bonus points for long TDs. So in addition to 6pts for passing TDs, you can start 1RB and 3WR if you want. 12 teams. I would like the points scored for the: Top 12 QBs Top 24 RBs Top 36 WRs Top 12 TEs Top 12 Ks Top 12 Ds If you want you can email it to me: idpsteve "at" gmail.com I would like to do a little value exercise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 I would like the points scored for the:Top 12 QBs Top 24 RBs Top 36 WRs Top 12 TEs Top 12 Ks Top 12 Ds for each of the last 3 years If you want you can email it to me: idpsteve "at" gmail.com I would like to do a little value exercise Fixed your post. The only 1 required RB is a hugh factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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