THE most undervalued palyer this year.

[ChampSampson]

1. Eric Mangini is NO LONGER the coach in New York. Magini is a hardcore running coach, bar none. For some reason last year, they gave it to Thomas Jones every play in the Red Zone. This, despite the fact that it often took Thomas Jones 3-4 plays to knock it in, inside the 5-yard line. The guy wasn't impressive, his results were strictly volume based. Thew dude is not a good runner. He's not a pile pusher.

 

2. No more Favre as a decoy. While I like Sanchez, he's going to see a lot of 8-man boxes.

 

 

 

With that said...I see your point.

Edited September 8, 2009 by ChampSampson

[Bronco Billy]

Man, Rovers, you sure do have a hard on for Jones. Even though the Jets drafted a RB aimed directly at his spot - one who the HC admits to loving, and even though he will have a rookie QB and a lack of a legit WR2 that figures to cause Ds to compress the box as well as add players to it, you're still convinced that Jones is going to have a hugh year. Got to admire your tenacity, my man.

[Gopher]

Man, Rovers, you sure do have a hard on for Jones. Even though the Jets drafted a RB aimed directly at his spot - one who the HC admits to loving, and even though he will have a rookie QB and a lack of a legit WR2 that figures to cause Ds to compress the box as well as add players to it, you're still convinced that Jones is going to have a hugh year. Got to admire your tenacity, my man.

Figured you would chime in sooner or later.

 

For what it's worth, I don't think Rovers is saying he'll have a "hugh" year... just that he's potentially got more value than some of the other RB's being drafted in the same range (5th, 6th, 7th, even 8th-9th rounds). I tend to agree with him. Do I think he'll match or surpass last year's numbers? Hell no. But, he's the starting tailback on a team that's STILL going to run the ball quite a bit. If there's one thing Thomas Jones has been over the past 4-5 years, it's consistent... Some people will say that he's nothing more than consistently mediocre, and that's fine. The bottom line is that, for every reason why people don't think he'll do squat this year, I can think of at least one reason why there is a good chance he'll be a productive fantasy RB:

 

- His durability is among tops in the league, in terms of time missed by starting RB's... He's missed 3 games in the past five years, including none in the past three seasons.

 

- He is vastly underrated in the passing game, averaging 36 receptions per season over the past five years. Even last year, with Washington in the mix as the part-time 3rd down back, Jones still managed to reach that number of 36 catches.

 

- He can handle the job of protecting Sanchez on passing downs... Not saying Greene can't, but he's unproven (at least in terms of how he will do in that area in a live NFL game).

 

- Washington is what he is... a 3rd down back with the ability to make plays in the return game as well. A lot of people (not necessarily you, BB) seem to think that Washington is going to drastically take away from Jones' touches this year... That's simply not going to be the case. Washington may be involved even more on 3rd down than he was last year, but that's about it. Jones (or Greene) will still get the bulk of the work between the tackles... I'm just not convinced that it's not going to be Jones getting most of those carries, with Greene spelling him for a few touches per game.

 

- Greene is currently questionable due to an injury, and the season hasn't even started.

 

- This may be a bit repetitive, but Jones has been consistent running the ball... averaging 290 carries per season since 2004, and over 1000 yards (he's been at 1100+ for the past four seasons in a row). His TD's have fluctuated the past two years (1 in '07 and 13 last year), but overall, his numbers have been very consistent. He has also averaged 4.0 YPC for his career... Once again, not great, but decent.

 

Personally, considering where I drafted him in the leagues where I did get him, I'd be happy with 800-900 yards, 6 TD's, and 25-30 catches for 150 yards or so... all of which are below what he's averaged over the past five seasons. I may be way off, but I think Jones has a very good chance of hitting those numbers.

 

BB, I am curious about one thing... I've noticed that you're pretty certain that Greene is going to be the guy to have from the NYJ backfield this year, between Jones/Greene. Personally, I like Greene as well... just not sure how much impact he'll have this year, as opposed to next. Is your "hard on" for Greene because you think that he'll take away that much of the work and/or goalline carries regardless of how Jones plays, or do you think that Jones will be phased out during the season (with Greene becoming the starter by mid-season or so)? In other words, do you think they'll split the work fairly evenly from the get-go (assuming Greene is healthy), or will it be more of a situation where they turn more to Greene once they realize they're not in the hunt for this year's post-season, and start building for next year, making Greene a solid fantasy producer for the second half of the season, potentially?

 

Edited because I can't spell.

Edited September 9, 2009 by Gopher

[Jackass]

If there's one thing Thomas Jones has been over the past 4-5 years, it's consistent...

 

Well... he did have 1 TD two years ago...

[Cunning Runt]

Um... no, but I did predict the Curtis Martin rebound the year he won the NFL rushing title, saying he would be a top ten RB that year. In this forum. That was a projection I got plenty of heat for too. I'll take any bet anyone has to offer that Jones lands in the top 15 this year. I don't go out on a limb like this often, but when i do.... disregard if you so choose, but at yer own risk.

 

I think I'll take that bet, but we need to decide what the wager is for and also how "top 15" is determined.

[Rovers]

Man, Rovers, you sure do have a hard on for Jones. Even though the Jets drafted a RB aimed directly at his spot - one who the HC admits to loving, and even though he will have a rookie QB and a lack of a legit WR2 that figures to cause Ds to compress the box as well as add players to it, you're still convinced that Jones is going to have a hugh year. Got to admire your tenacity, my man.

 

Not a hugh year....I predict a 10+% redcution in touches, a YPC of 4.1 vs. last year's 4.5 and a 33% decline in TD's. Even if you want to cut Jones numbers in half from last year, that's 7-8 TD's, 750+ combined yards. He won't repeat last year's numbers, but he didn't fall off a cliff, either. I think my projections are very reasonable. Greene's time will come, but it won't be this year. Seems to me it is you with a woody for Greene, not mad man love on my part for Jones. Do you really think a rokie RB will be given a lot of playing time with a rookie QB who has very limited game experience even in college? A guy that came out a year early? Heck, we haven't seen nearly enough of Greene to know if he can block and know when to release for an outlet pass. With a rookie QB.... nope, Jones will be in there. More Washington, sure, but Jones will get his touches. I project 35 fewer carries for Jones this year. You want to go with 60 fewer touches? That still puts Jones well over 1000 yards combined, unless his YPC goes completely down the toilet. Even with 250 carries and a YPC of 3.5 he'll hit 1000 combined. His YPC in 2008 was 4.5.

.

 

Mangini ran the ball a lot, Ryan says he will run it even more. We'll see. Jones fumbled twice last year, losing one. Greene had 12 touches in the entire preseason. 9 of those came in the first week. The kid aint ready. When it's time to run out the clock, it will be Jones. Greene will get carries in garbage time, blowouts. I don't expect the Jets to be in very many of those.

 

To the poster who claims it took Jones 3 or 4 shots to score at the GL... you have no clue. That simply is not true. If you think Jones will stink it up, fine, but don't make things up.

[Rovers]

I think I'll take that bet, but we need to decide what the wager is for and also how "top 15" is determined.

 

How about using some standard scoring system... what system do the end of year Huddle rankings use?

[Bronco Billy]

Before anything else - hats off to Gopher & Rovers for making outstanding arguments on Jones' behalf. It's that kind of stuff that makes me rethink my position. And Rovers has always been a great source for Jets' info.

 

BB, I am curious about one thing... I've noticed that you're pretty certain that Greene is going to be the guy to have from the NYJ backfield this year, between Jones/Greene. Personally, I like Greene as well... just not sure how much impact he'll have this year, as opposed to next. Is your "hard on" for Greene because you think that he'll take away that much of the work and/or goalline carries regardless of how Jones plays, or do you think that Jones will be phased out during the season (with Greene becoming the starter by mid-season or so)? In other words, do you think they'll split the work fairly evenly from the get-go (assuming Greene is healthy), or will it be more of a situation where they turn more to Greene once they realize they're not in the hunt for this year's post-season, and start building for next year, making Greene a solid fantasy producer for the second half of the season, potentially?

 

Now that I've seen the arguments put forth, I think I can agree that Jones will probably be RB1 - but with the caveat that Washington will get a bigger chunk of the pie and Greene is going to get some work. NY will probably also want to diminish the amount of time 2 rookies spend in the same backfield also. That puts Jones probably somewhere around 800 total yds, maybe 4-5 TDs. I think Greene will get short yardage work and Washington will get regular reps as well as 3rd down stuff. That makes Jones a between-the-20s RB who will have to make his bones on combined yardage and catches.

 

RB3 seems like a good spot for him.

[Cunning Runt]

How about using some standard scoring system... what system do the end of year Huddle rankings use?

 

Whatever - just so long as we both agree and it's not something funky.

 

I'm thinking twenty bucks.

[Rovers]

What I will say about Jones.... when playoff time in FF comes around... Greene could really put a dent in Jone's numbers. Very dependent on the Jets W-L record, but it's no secret, the Jets didn't give Jones an extension because they do see Greene as his replacement. Tip that on the scale with the fact that Jones is in a contract year. If the Jets are sitting at 6-7, Greene could become the starter. That is really the only caveat I have about Jones. Granted, it could be a BIG caveat. Still, I stick by my 275 carry, 30 reception 1300 yards or so, 10 TD prediction for Jones. I've watched Greene in short yardage, and he reminds me of oh, crap, what's his name.... the high draft pick for the Giants some years ago... a big back who danced around instead of pushing the pile... Greene seems to want to avoid contact in short yardage between the tackles. He wants to go outside, not into the pile.

 

I actaully think Leon is better between the tackles than Greene is at this point. Washington has vastly improved that part of his game since he was a rook. Washington has improved every aspect of his game in fact. If I have a hard on for any Jets RB. it's Leon, but I think he is over valued in FF.

 

If the Jets are out of the playoffs early, my Jones projections won't hold up. If the Jets surprrise, and remain in the race, Jones could be fantasy gold based on his ranking. Jones will get you to the FF playoffs, but carries a lot of risk in those playoffs. He will be a solid RB2 for 14 weeks. Then he gets risky, and having Greene stashed on that same FF roster would be a wise move.

[Rovers]

Whatever - just so long as we both agree and it's not something funky.

 

I'm thinking twenty bucks.

 

That's a friendly bet amount... not spain crazy, although I never did lose any bets to spain... LOL. I miss him for that reason alone.

 

How about we use a Dynasty Wars league scoring system. 0.5 PPR, standard after that, no bonuses. DW2 is on MFL, and scoring info is public info. The link to DW2 is in the "other league" forums. 20 bucks? I'm agreed. Jones finishes in the top 15 RB rankings after week 17, I win, if he isn't in the top 15, I pay up.

[Cunning Runt]

That's a friendly bet amount... not spain crazy, although I never did lose any bets to spain... LOL. I miss him for that reason alone.

 

How about we use a Dynasty Wars league scoring system. 0.5 PPR, standard after that, no bonuses. DW2 is on MFL, and scoring info is public info. The link to DW2 is in the "other league" forums. 20 bucks? I'm agreed. Jones finishes in the top 15 RB rankings after week 17, I win, if he isn't in the top 15, I pay up.

 

 

You're on. Consider that my handshake.

[Gopher]

Well... he did have 1 TD two years ago...

Right... I was thinking more in terms of touches, yardage, and receptions. I think TD's is by far the hardest one of the bunch to predict, but if I had to guess, I'd put him somewhere back in the 6-8 range for this year.

[MTSuper7]

Lots of talk about Thomas Jones and a few other RBs on this thread, but I happen to think that one of the most undervalued players in this year's crop is Lavernaues Coles. I nabbed him at the end of the 9th round in a draft today and the end of the 8th in another league. In that offense, and knowing the role Coles will play, I don't see how he is slipping so far in PPR leagues. Is it injury concern? Are people scared off by Palmer this year? I'm not expecting him to duplicate Housh's stats from previous years playing with Palmer, but I wouldn't be surprised at 80-1100-8 which is insane for a guy being drafted essentially as a WR4. Anyone else feel like Coles is a nice bargain?

[Rovers]

You're on. Consider that my handshake.

 

We're on....

[Clubfoothead]

Ray Rice

 

I'd have voted him the most overvalued but that's just MHO.

 

I don't know who the most undervalued player is this year. I have no interest in Jones but I'll draft anyone if I think they represent value. I've had 3 real drafts so far and he seems to be going about where I'd expect, which was a little too early for me but nobody reached for him either.

[Gopher]

Before anything else - hats off to Gopher & Rovers for making outstanding arguments on Jones' behalf. It's that kind of stuff that makes me rethink my position. And Rovers has always been a great source for Jets' info.

 

Now that I've seen the arguments put forth, I think I can agree that Jones will probably be RB1 - but with the caveat that Washington will get a bigger chunk of the pie and Greene is going to get some work. NY will probably also want to diminish the amount of time 2 rookies spend in the same backfield also. That puts Jones probably somewhere around 800 total yds, maybe 4-5 TDs. I think Greene will get short yardage work and Washington will get regular reps as well as 3rd down stuff. That makes Jones a between-the-20s RB who will have to make his bones on combined yardage and catches.

 

RB3 seems like a good spot for him.

Can't really argue with much of this... Not sure if Greene will get all of the work inside the 20, necessarily, which is why I have Jones' numbers as slightly higher. Props to BB for at least being able to see things partially from our point of view... Once I move into HOF in the Ladder with Jones as my RB2, I'll have the other 50% of him convinced.

 

I will say that I'm glad we can debate this stuff without someone taking it too personally or turning it into a name-calling contest... After all, most of this (on my part at least) is purely speculation. One thing I know for sure... we will soon be able to see the games take place, which sure beats arguing about things that we can't possibly prove at this point.

 

108 hours and counting until kickoff!! (As much as I'll enjoy watching Thursday's game, I count Sunday morning as the true kickoff to the NFL season).

[Rovers]

Lots of talk about Thomas Jones and a few other RBs on this thread, but I happen to think that one of the most undervalued players in this year's crop is Lavernaues Coles. I nabbed him at the end of the 9th round in a draft today and the end of the 8th in another league. In that offense, and knowing the role Coles will play, I don't see how he is slipping so far in PPR leagues. Is it injury concern? Are people scared off by Palmer this year? I'm not expecting him to duplicate Housh's stats from previous years playing with Palmer, but I wouldn't be surprised at 80-1100-8 which is insane for a guy being drafted essentially as a WR4. Anyone else feel like Coles is a nice bargain?

 

 

He could be a great baragin, but some teams just scare people off, and I think that is what's up with Coles, along with a history of injuries that he has always played through. I have stayed away from him too... and my reasonong holds little water, as does the bias some have against Jones.

 

Lest some need tro be reminded.... in 2007 the Jets had NO LG or RT. Faneca and Woody turned out to be hugh upgrades to the Jets O line, along with Mangold's continuing development into one of the best centers in the NFL. That in no small measure made T Jones GL success light years better in 2008 vs 2007.

[Rovers]

Can't really argue with much of this... Not sure if Greene will get all of the work inside the 20, necessarily, which is why I have Jones' numbers as slightly higher. Props to BB for at least being able to see things partially from our point of view... Once I move into HOF in the Ladder with Jones as my RB2, I'll have the other 50% of him convinced.

 

I will say that I'm glad we can debate this stuff without someone taking it too personally or turning it into a name-calling contest... After all, most of this (on my part at least) is purely speculation. One thing I know for sure... we will soon be able to see the games take place, which sure beats arguing about things that we can't possibly prove at this point.

 

108 hours and counting until kickoff!! (As much as I'll enjoy watching Thursday's game, I count Sunday morning as the true kickoff to the NFL season).

 

 

I agree.... the civility in this thread has been refreshing. It's all crystal ball stuff. Nice to have a clean thread once in a while.

 

I see Greene as a non factor until the Jets are out of the playoff race... so Jones' numbers are highly dependent on how the Jets go in terms of wins. Other than that, I think my projections are very reasonable.

[ChampSampson]

To the poster who claims it took Jones 3 or 4 shots to score at the GL... you have no clue. That simply is not true. If you think Jones will stink it up, fine, but don't make things up.

 

Good post's, good thread. But I stand by this POV.

[Henry Muto]

I have no want or need for Thomas Jones this year I was staying far far away from him...yet I have him on 3 teams now.

 

Reason is he keeps falling to the late 6th and 7th rounds and it is like almost having no choice.

 

I actually have a bad feeling about him but at some point you can't pass on a top 5 RB from last year.

 

I took him round 7 tonight while Leon went in round 5.

[doobwaa]

I don't think he will make it into the top 15.

 

Between the other RBs that will get more touches, no real WRs and a rookie QB I think he will have a very off year.

 

I think the Jets are in for a rough season all around.

 

I think Grant may be the most undervalued.

[NAUgrad]

Lots of talk about Thomas Jones and a few other RBs on this thread, but I happen to think that one of the most undervalued players in this year's crop is Lavernaues Coles. I nabbed him at the end of the 9th round in a draft today and the end of the 8th in another league. In that offense, and knowing the role Coles will play, I don't see how he is slipping so far in PPR leagues. Is it injury concern? Are people scared off by Palmer this year? I'm not expecting him to duplicate Housh's stats from previous years playing with Palmer, but I wouldn't be surprised at 80-1100-8 which is insane for a guy being drafted essentially as a WR4. Anyone else feel like Coles is a nice bargain?

I agree. For the most part because Chad Occocinco has not impressed me for several years. It sometimes seems like Palmer doesn't really like him so he throws more to the #2. I still think Coles has plenty left in the tank and, barring injury, could be a late round steal. I tried to get him in a couple of leagues and he was just going to high for me.

[Bronco Billy]

I agree. For the most part because Chad Occocinco has not impressed me for several years.

 

 

ChadOchoCincoJohnson has been a top 8 WR every year since 2003 except for last year in every league I play in. I can't stand his act, but the guy puts up WR1 numbers like clockwork. He's WAY undervalued this year. What exactly does a guy need to do to impress you?

[Big John]

 

ChadOchoCincoJohnson has been a top 8 WR every year since 2003 except for last year in every league I play in. I can't stand his act, but the guy puts up WR1 numbers like clockwork. He's WAY undervalued this year. What exactly does a guy need to do to impress you?

I was able to grab him in the 6th round a couple days ago.