2009 Bold Predictions

[ChampSampson]

As some of you know...I am a big RTSports homer. Anyway, I don't think Jeff Paur speaks gospel or anything...but some more food for thought.

 

Cheers!

 

 

Bold Predictions

 

2009-09-09 17:13:52

By JEFF PAUR

Sr Fantasy Writer

RealTime Fantasy Sports

 

 

As the season gets ready to get underway tomorrow, I'm here to give you some of my 10 bold predictions for the coming year. These are for fantasy purposes, but also a look at some NFL happenings (i.e. Super Bowl). You might not agree with all of them, but isn't that the point of the article, right? All I know is I'm excited for the start of the season.

 

 

1. James Davis becomes the starter in Cleveland in Week 4. This isn't that daring of a prediction if you watched the preseason. Jamal Lewis looked old and slow. Davis looked young, fast and exciting. It doesn't make much sense for the Browns to stick with Lewis if he gets off to a slow start or if the Browns start losing games. The future at running back is with Davis.

 

2. Pierre Thomas tops the list of fantasy busts in '09. Even before he got nicked in camp, I wasn't too high on Thomas. I just worry about his ability to stay healthy, which is rearing its ugly head even before the season starts. And now if you throw in the fact Mike Bell looked amazing in camp, the prospects for Thomas living up to his draft status don't seem very promising right now. He could still have some big games, but he could also really disappoint along the way.

 

3. The No. 1 rated fantasy quarterback is. . . . . .Tom Brady. This really isn't a bold prediction, but many think Brady could struggle a bit as he recovers from his major knee injury. Brady will be fine. Did you watch him in preseason action? In his last game before leaving with a shoulder issue, Brady looked like the quarterback that posted record-breaking numbers. He was hooking up with Randy Moss with ease. Look for more of the same throughout the season as Brady edges Drew Brees for No. 1 quarterback honors.

 

4. Super Bowl Prediction: Packers 28, Steelers 24. I'm from St. Louis, so this isn't a homer pick. I just like the Packers a lot this season. They had one of the best offenses in the game last year and should be better with Aaron Rodgers in his second season as starter and a healthy Ryan Grant at running back. But the big changes came defensively where the Packers added upgrades through the draft (B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews) and coaching staff. New defensive coordinator, Dom Capers, will be a big help. The Steelers are the defending champs and team to beat in the AFC. They return about everything from last season and have an easy schedule (29th overall) for the coming season. Pittsburgh looks good to repeat as AFC Champs.

 

5. Knowshon Moreno is the top rookie running back and carries many fantasy teams, similar to Matt Forte last season. You didn't get to see much of him in training camp and the preseason, but you had to like what you saw. Moreno is a big-play back but can run with power and does well catching the ball out of the backfield. The Broncos have one of the best offensive lines in the game, so Moreno has a good shot to produce consistent numbers when he is getting touches. He should be a huge part of the Broncos offense, especially if you consider they have an iffy quarterback situation.

 

6. Willie Parker is this season's Thomas Jones. Last season, I targeted Jones in several leagues. He was setup for a big season with new additions to the offensive line and a quarterback to keep defenses honest. You could get Jones last in your draft last year. Well, Parker is fitting this category for this coming season. He is healthy and in a contract year. And if you are worried about Rashard Mendenhall taking a bunch of carries, don't. Mendenhall hasn't been impressive at all and won't be getting a ton of work until he starts to turn the corner. Plus, the Steelers have already said Parker is getting the goal-line carries. Parker plays for a good team in a run-oriented offense. He can turn it around, barring injury.

 

7. 2009 Fantasy MVP: Calvin Johnson. It is a different era in fantasy football these days. You need a stud No. 1 receiver to have a top fantasy team. If you don't, good luck in making the playoffs. And Johnson has the makings to be the top rated receiver in the game. Just look at the season he had last year with a hodgepodge group of quarterbacks throwing him passes. Having Matthew Stafford as his quarterback from day one will help Johnson surpass last year's numbers. Johnson will carry fantasy teams at times this season.

 

8. Ted Ginn Jr. has his first 1,000-yard season. Ginn is the Dolphins clear No. 1 receiver. And he seems to have turned to corner before this season. He is running much better routes and his hands are improving. He has the makeup to be a 1,000-yard receiver in the mold of Vincent Jackson. Ginn is one of the top big-play threats at receiver in the game. This is the year his potential finally comes to fruition on the field.

 

9. Not many think he can do it, but DeAngelo Williams will finish with numbers similar to last season. Jonathan Stewart hasn't really practiced at all during camp and preseason action because of injury. He could be slowed early in the year, giving Williams a little more work. Remember, Williams finished with his monster season despite Stewart getting around 10 carries per game. If Stewart misses time, Williams' touches go up. And the Panthers remain a run-first team with a very good offensive line, making Williams a pretty safe bet to produce consistent numbers for fantasy teams.

 

10. Matt Leinart makes a fantasy impact. Kurt Warner is showing his age this preseason. He hasn't done much on the field and offseason hip surgery continues to slow him a bit. Warner is no sure thing to make it through the season healthy, especially if you consider his injury history. This is where Leinart steps in. And Leinart had a great offseason. He got in better shape and seemed to have a better grasp of the offense. Leinart had a tremendous preseason. In a game against the Packers, Leinart threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns in a half. He can produce big numbers if called into action, which seems almost likely this season.

 

If you have any questions or comments, please email Jeff Paur at jeff@rtsports.com

[Bronco Billy]

1. James Davis becomes the starter in Cleveland in Week 4. This isn't that daring of a prediction if you watched the preseason. Jamal Lewis looked old and slow. Davis looked young, fast and exciting. It doesn't make much sense for the Browns to stick with Lewis if he gets off to a slow start or if the Browns start losing games. The future at running back is with Davis.

 

Hard to disagree, but how much impact does Davis make? The team figures to be forced to throw a lot, and even when they are leading or still in games, Davis figures to share with Lewis and to come out in 3rd down passing situations. I like Davis, but I'm having a tough time seeing him as anything other than a bye week filler.

 

2. Pierre Thomas tops the list of fantasy busts in '09. Even before he got nicked in camp, I wasn't too high on Thomas. I just worry about his ability to stay healthy, which is rearing its ugly head even before the season starts. And now if you throw in the fact Mike Bell looked amazing in camp, the prospects for Thomas living up to his draft status don't seem very promising right now. He could still have some big games, but he could also really disappoint along the way.

 

Thomas was simply outstanding - no, he was a premier FF RB - in the 2nd half of last season. I don't care how good Bell looked, the Saints will feed Thoams the ball until he proves that he's just average, and this is an offense that will allow gaping holes for him as teams try to defend Brees & the passing game first & foremost. I can't buy into this assessment in the least.

 

3. The No. 1 rated fantasy quarterback is. . . . . .Tom Brady. This really isn't a bold prediction, but many think Brady could struggle a bit as he recovers from his major knee injury. Brady will be fine. Did you watch him in preseason action? In his last game before leaving with a shoulder issue, Brady looked like the quarterback that posted record-breaking numbers. He was hooking up with Randy Moss with ease. Look for more of the same throughout the season as Brady edges Drew Brees for No. 1 quarterback honors.

 

Hard to argue. The table is set for him to have a hugh year. But he won't come close to matching his career year 2 years ago. Check out Manning's return to simply oustanding the year after he went hog wild. #1 QB? I'l buy it. A large gap between he & 3 or 4 other top QBs? That I don't buy.

 

4. Super Bowl Prediction: Packers 28, Steelers 24. I'm from St. Louis, so this isn't a homer pick. I just like the Packers a lot this season. They had one of the best offenses in the game last year and should be better with Aaron Rodgers in his second season as starter and a healthy Ryan Grant at running back. But the big changes came defensively where the Packers added upgrades through the draft (B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews) and coaching staff. New defensive coordinator, Dom Capers, will be a big help. The Steelers are the defending champs and team to beat in the AFC. They return about everything from last season and have an easy schedule (29th overall) for the coming season. Pittsburgh looks good to repeat as AFC Champs.

 

Okay. I'll buy into this right now - especially a GB SB win.

 

5. Knowshon Moreno is the top rookie running back and carries many fantasy teams, similar to Matt Forte last season. You didn't get to see much of him in training camp and the preseason, but you had to like what you saw. Moreno is a big-play back but can run with power and does well catching the ball out of the backfield. The Broncos have one of the best offensive lines in the game, so Moreno has a good shot to produce consistent numbers when he is getting touches. He should be a huge part of the Broncos offense, especially if you consider they have an iffy quarterback situation.

 

I can't see this at all. Moreno has held out & already been hurt. The DEN blocking schemes are not nearly as RB friendly as they were opening gaping holes under Shanahan, and DEN doesn't have either a passing O or a D to protect & maximize the running game. None of that even touches on how the NE system that McHoody has brought lock, stock, & barrel - into a team that has no way to utilize it - uses several RBs meaningfully every game.

Edited September 10, 2009 by Bronco Billy

[Bronco Billy]

6. Willie Parker is this season's Thomas Jones. Last season, I targeted Jones in several leagues. He was setup for a big season with new additions to the offensive line and a quarterback to keep defenses honest. You could get Jones last in your draft last year. Well, Parker is fitting this category for this coming season. He is healthy and in a contract year. And if you are worried about Rashard Mendenhall taking a bunch of carries, don't. Mendenhall hasn't been impressive at all and won't be getting a ton of work until he starts to turn the corner. Plus, the Steelers have already said Parker is getting the goal-line carries. Parker plays for a good team in a run-oriented offense. He can turn it around, barring injury.

 

I like Parker this year. Mendenhall is looking like a bust (as some of us thought he would be coming out of college) and parker will get his chances. The only real caveat is his ability to stay healthy and carry a hugh workload doing it.

 

7. 2009 Fantasy MVP: Calvin Johnson. It is a different era in fantasy football these days. You need a stud No. 1 receiver to have a top fantasy team. If you don't, good luck in making the playoffs. And Johnson has the makings to be the top rated receiver in the game. Just look at the season he had last year with a hodgepodge group of quarterbacks throwing him passes. Having Matthew Stafford as his quarterback from day one will help Johnson surpass last year's numbers. Johnson will carry fantasy teams at times this season.

 

Could be, because he is so awesomely talented. But having a rook throw to him doesn't bode well for a WR1 finish, even if he gets his numbers.

 

8. Ted Ginn Jr. has his first 1,000-yard season. Ginn is the Dolphins clear No. 1 receiver. And he seems to have turned to corner before this season. He is running much better routes and his hands are improving. He has the makeup to be a 1,000-yard receiver in the mold of Vincent Jackson. Ginn is one of the top big-play threats at receiver in the game. This is the year his potential finally comes to fruition on the field.

 

I don't see this at all. Ginn's game is speed, plain & simple. His QB - Pennington, who runs the MIA like a well oiled machine, has a real weakness in his deep ball. I don't see how MIA can maximize Ginn's numbers with that very poor matchup.

 

9. Not many think he can do it, but DeAngelo Williams will finish with numbers similar to last season. Jonathan Stewart hasn't really practiced at all during camp and preseason action because of injury. He could be slowed early in the year, giving Williams a little more work. Remember, Williams finished with his monster season despite Stewart getting around 10 carries per game. If Stewart misses time, Williams' touches go up. And the Panthers remain a run-first team with a very good offensive line, making Williams a pretty safe bet to produce consistent numbers for fantasy teams.

 

I agree. Stewart appears to be in a position where he will be limited, and Goodson, while getting work, figures to be more of a Reggie Bush type player. Williams will get enough work to sustain his numbers. The thing that would really hurt him - other than an injury to himself - would be something happening to Smith, which would allow Ds to put a stranglehold on the running game by compressing the box and bringing another player into it.

 

10. Matt Leinart makes a fantasy impact. Kurt Warner is showing his age this preseason. He hasn't done much on the field and offseason hip surgery continues to slow him a bit. Warner is no sure thing to make it through the season healthy, especially if you consider his injury history. This is where Leinart steps in. And Leinart had a great offseason. He got in better shape and seemed to have a better grasp of the offense. Leinart had a tremendous preseason. In a game against the Packers, Leinart threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns in a half. He can produce big numbers if called into action, which seems almost likely this season.

 

Agreed wholeheartedly, and I would advise FF owners who see Leinart on their WW to grab him if they have room on their bench. Leinart finally looks like he has progressed sufficiently in maturity and game knowledge, and he has awesome weapons. AZ figures to throw a ton and I have a tough time seeing them repeating the magic from last year, meaning they'll be behind in more games. And a 38 yr old Warner coming off a hip injury for a QB who was as mobile as a statue to begin with smells like some real late round impact opportunity for Leinart to me.